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The Bills over Dav by 2


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General Outlook

Nice win at LaS....but because we did what we were supposed to do (within 3 pts) against a so-so team...we don't gain any ground in the numbers.  We will be favored in the next 4 games with this game being the toughest of the next  4.   We will be able to make up some ground in these games particularly if we exceed the spread ...and some extra ground if we exceed the spread by 10.   Looking forward,  the games will be come more difficult not just because of better competition  or rivalries  or jockeying for position in the A-10 tourney...it will happen because we are in 1st (or the top 4)...teams will be gunning for us. Hopefully that will raise our level of play too.

Game Outlook

I am sure some on the Board will be surprised by the 2 pt spread thinking that Dav is a below 500 team.  But Dav is a B- team (we remain at B+) and they are difficult to beat at home.  Let's confuse things a bit more. When I asked the computer ...How good is Davidson?  The answer is... better than UMass but worse than GM. What does that mean for the Bills...They are not a team to be taking lightly.  They will try to slow the game down...They think the lower the score the better chance they will have to win...They have not scored more than 65 pts in the last 4 games...by design. They have lost 3 of those 4 games but they were all close.  We can  shake them up with some fast breaks. We are the better team...we will need to bring our A game like we have the last few games.  If we play at the level we have been, we will win this game......easily.

 

Report Card....

3 categories up ...2 down.  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games.  While opponent PPG has improved, it is still the weakest part of the Card.   I think this is the most important stat on the sheet for the rest of the season.  Further, if we can raise that grade from C- to  C ...I would then say not only will we be favored for most of the rest of the games BUT we would actually win most of the rest of the games. What would it take to get to C....giving up less than 70 pts a game.  We have to play with a purpose...not just trying to outscore them or keep them from getting open shots...We need the discipline to hold them  under 70...What I mean by that is ...if we are leading with just a few min left in the game by say 85 -68...instead of trying to get to 90 or stalling the game out...we need to keep them from getting 70...the mind set / discipline /focus to always be playing defense with a specific number in mind.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Dav........................SLU.............................Dav

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.....................C-............................C-..................................C+

FG%...............B.......................C..............................A-..................................C

3P%...............C+.....................D-............................C+.................................B

FT%...............B-......................B..................................................................

Reb...............A+..10th ITN......D-............................C....................................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....Reb.....3P%....Def.....3P%

Down.........Off.......FT%...Rebs....Def....Reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......50th  all time D1 list

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...29th...up

Reb...Okoro...49th...up

Blks...Okoro ...59th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...22th ...up

Dou Dou...Collins...37th...up

Dav

FT%...Loyer...46th...Skogman...68th

Assts...Loyer...68th

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....1/21...Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Fri

Dav...none

 

Keys to the game....Rebound....Dav is not a good reb team ....try to get  the fast break going...this will not only get us some points but shake their rhythm up. Mennega is their main man...he can shoot from anywhere and will if you let him.  Outside of him,  Loyer is their go to guard. They have 2 other guards if Loyer can't shoot....Watson and Huffman who can do some damage.  

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their top 3 scorers  (Mennega and 2 of their top 3 guards) to a combined 34pts  which should allow us to keep them under 70 pts....Match them on TOs...Beat them on the boards by double digits....score at least 8 fast break pts....Don't give them free pts by fouling Loyer or Skogman. 

Bottom line....Play the 1st minute like the last minute in a tied game. Keep the momentum going and roll over the Cats.

gabriel and BuiltFordBills like this
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8 minutes ago, shempie said:

Thanks Wiz. Great stuff as always. I feel like our FT% is trending down and am wondering how big a concern that is. 

I see what you are seeing but also see that most of these misses are by players you would expect. If we focus on getting posession for Pickett, Yuri, Gibby, and Perk we should be okay.

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33 minutes ago, shempie said:

Thanks Wiz. Great stuff as always. I feel like our FT% is trending down and am wondering how big a concern that is. 

When the spread is 16 pts , it is not a big concern (we missed 3 extra FTs in the LaS game ...we missed making the spread by 3...not a big deal).  But in a 2 pt game , it can be the difference between winning and losing.

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5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

When the spread is 16 pts , it is not a big concern (we missed 3 extra FTs in the LaS game ...we missed making the spread by 3...not a big deal).  But in a 2 pt game , it can be the difference between winning and losing.

And when you miss a ton as we saw in the Auburn game, you are screwed. 

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-below is from The Wiz prior to last season's game at David on Feb 19 where they beat us 79-58 by shooting 58% from 3 and out rebounding us by 5, Lee had 29pts 

again, this is from LAST SEASON

Let's look at the report card and see what we are dealing with.

 
...................SLU.....................Dav..........................SLU.........................Dav

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A.......................B+.............................C+............................B-

FG%...............B+.....................A+ 13th ITN............B...............................C+

3P%..............B+......................A+ 16th ITN............B+.............................D+

FT%...............A+ 19th ITN......A+ 16th ITN..............................................

Reb...............A.........................D..............................A-.............................A-

-just to point out their drop in 3pt shooting from A+ to this season's D-

-btw, last season The Wiz had us by 1

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36 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-below is from The Wiz prior to last season's game at David on Feb 19 where they beat us 79-58 by shooting 58% from 3 and out rebounding us by 5, Lee had 29pts 

again, this is from LAST SEASON

Let's look at the report card and see what we are dealing with.

 
...................SLU.....................Dav..........................SLU.........................Dav

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A.......................B+.............................C+............................B-

FG%...............B+.....................A+ 13th ITN............B...............................C+

3P%..............B+......................A+ 16th ITN............B+.............................D+

FT%...............A+ 19th ITN......A+ 16th ITN..............................................

Reb...............A.........................D..............................A-.............................A-

-just to point out their drop in 3pt shooting from A+ to this season's D-

-btw, last season The Wiz had us by 1

A couple of interesting takeaways from that last season report card. The only area that Dav has improved from last year is on 3P defense. On the offensive side , Dav had a spectacular report card with the 3 shooting categories not only at A+ but 16th ITN or better.  And yet even though those exceptional numbers , that night they far exceeded those A+s....a game for the ages....and that is how we got womped.  The Wildcats with one of their best games ever.

The good news is they are just a shell of what they were last year. The only thing left is some OK FT shooting by 2 players. There is no rebounding and just a little 3P defense.  As I pointed out above, if we can play like we have been trending recently....it might be time for some payback.

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Desmond Watson is outscoring and outshooting Loyer in conference play.  Don't put all your eggs in the Loyer bucket and forget about Watson.  He is 9 of 26 from the arc for 35%, and averaging 12.0 ppg in conference.  Loyer is 12 of 50, 24% and 10.8 ppg in conference.  

Davidson is more than Mennenga and Loyer.  True, those are the two that scare me the most, but Davidson has more than just those two.

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Desmond Watson is outscoring and outshooting Loyer in conference play.  Don't put all your eggs in the Loyer bucket and forget about Watson.  He is 9 of 26 from the arc for 35%, and averaging 12.0 ppg in conference.  Loyer is 12 of 50, 24% and 10.8 ppg in conference.  

Davidson is more than Mennenga and Loyer.  True, those are the two that scare me the most, but Davidson has more than just those two.

From the opening post....

Loyer is their go to guard. They have 2 other guards if Loyer can't shoot....Watson and Huffman who can do some damage.  

Hold their top 3 scorers  (Mennega and 2 of their top 3 guards) to a combined 34pts

Generally 2 of their 3 guards have a good night...Loyer and Watson or Huffman.  If you really shadow just Loyer than Watson and Huffman will be the go to guys.

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24 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Davidsons report card sucks.  I get it we don’t play well at Belk, but we should win.

Pickett is the x-factor in this one for me.  In order to win on the boards by 10+ we need good Pickett attacking the glass and being aggressive

hope the seven days off allowed pickett to heal a bit, i agree need him back healthy

 

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This game scares me. I've watched a couple of Davidson games. If you let them shoot open 3s they drill them, and we often give up open 3s. 

We need to play high energy D from the start and not give up open looks from the parameter. Not lose track of there shooters. We don't want to let an otherwise poor 3 point shooting team start feeling it, and turn them into a good 3 point shooting team.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

Week layoff + belk + nationality televised game = I’m nervous 

I think with a 2 pt spread , everyone should be a little nervous. Just  keep in mind we are the better team and we are favored.

Dav will come out and play a slow plodding, low scoring game...by design.  One...because they think that is their best chance to win....and two... to try and throw us off.   The third reason is they play a 7 man lineup and don't have the horses to go at a quick pace. 

I would like to see us play up tempo to wear them down and to throw their rhythm off.  Some quick ball movement with some fast breaks. I mentioned in the opening post, I wanted to see us  get 8 fast break points.  That will be a sign that things are trending our way.

If we play our game ...we win. 

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Stating the obvious here, These next two games are so important for the billikens to get back into the national bubble conversation. NEED to be at 16-6 and 8-1 going into the game against VCU. That will escalate that Friday night matchup to the national radar. Winning national radar games is what puts you into the bubble. One big win can do more than you think for getting you into the conversation. 

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15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

From the opening post....

Loyer is their go to guard. They have 2 other guards if Loyer can't shoot....Watson and Huffman who can do some damage.  

Hold their top 3 scorers  (Mennega and 2 of their top 3 guards) to a combined 34pts

Generally 2 of their 3 guards have a good night...Loyer and Watson or Huffman.  If you really shadow just Loyer than Watson and Huffman will be the go to guys.

I'm pleased the Wiz agrees.  There are posters who believe that Davidson is a two man team.  For me, Mennega would be the A10's most improved player over last season, through this roughly mid-point. 

The Bills seem to have a knack of having a second tier player have a career game when we play them.

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