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The Bills over GW by 3


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General Outlook

A great win over GM.  We had that will to win.  If we played with that focus going forward we would win the rest of the conference games.  The win itself didn't help much in the rankings.  On some of the tracking services we moved down.  On my computer we moved sideways.  Remember ...if you want to move up, you have to exceed the spread.   The GM game though was still a significant win.  While many think we need to win the conference, the key is to finish in the top 4 to draw the bye.  Right now we are projected to finish in the top 4. GM is listed as 5th and a dark horse to finish in the top 4.  The win was significant because it gives us a tie breaker with GM if needed.

Going forward, as part of "the 17"...there are 7 games left. These were part of a the pathway to post season play.  We are off track as a result of losses to UMass and SIU-e.  We have undone the damage from UMass but still need to fix the mess from SIU-e.  A win over GW (especially if we beat them by more than 3) won't fix the numbers by itself but  will start to turn the ship around.  We have 7 games left to get on track.

The computer in this spread is being conservative. We are clearly a better team than GW but there are certain things that are making the computer a bit anxious. We have not played well on the road this year and GW is a rough place to play...GW just beat UMass, the computer didn't like that either especially when it looked back at our game with the Minutemen.  And of course , it wanted us to beat GM by more than 1.  So the spread has been depressed.  An excellent opportunity to beat the spread and start climbing the rankings ladder.

Game Outlook

And yet another A-10 team that has a good starting lineup with no depth.  Remember, when I said one of the reasons the A-10 was weak this year was lack of depth...we are seeing that in the opening games of the conference.  They have an Oduro type...Bishop...he is there go to guy.  They will start 3 guards and 2 forwards. We have to take or open up a lead when they make substitutions. There is 1 big difference in this game.  GW can't shoot 3s.  They will take lots of 3PA...they just don't make them,  particularly if you guard them.  With GW ...it's all about the 2s.  If we can start hitting 3s (35%+) we can blow the game open.  If not, it will become a 2 shooting match which will be a struggle. 

Report Card....

The report card weakened after the GM game with 4 areas down and 1 up.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................GW........................SLU............................GW

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+........................B.........................D+....................................D

FG%...............C+.......................A-........................B+.....................................D

3P%...............C-.......................D-.........................C......................................C-

FT%...............B+........................B+..................................................................

Reb...............A+...18th ITN........D........................C-......................................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%........Def.....none

Down.........Off.......PPG...FT%...........Def....FG%...Reb

Opp TOs....this will no longer be listed as we have moved up from F-

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......60th  all time D1 list

Assists/TO ratio...Collins...38th...up

Reb...Okoro...61st...dn

Blks...Okoro ...56th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...37th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...47th...dn

3PM...Jimerson...72nd...up

GW

PPG...Bishop...5th

Assts...Bishop...36th

Injury /Illness report and misc

....The Bills

No new injuries or illness to report

....GW

E J Clark...Jan 4...Foot Surgery...OFS

Nixon...Jan 4...Knee surgery...OFS

Key to the game ....Stop Bishop...win the game

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...45/35/75...Hold Bishop to to 15...if not then hold the other 4 starters to 35....win the TO battle...Beat them on the boards by 9....Beat their bench by 14....keep GW under 70pts.

Bottom line....If we stop Bishop...it will be GW (Great Win)

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The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

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36 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

Hopefully not like last years Iona team. 

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1 hour ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

Yep.  But what is their NET?

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56 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

Yep.  But what is their NET?

Currently 112. But by OVC standards, that’s great. Next highest is SEMO at 218, and as of this morning, there are 5 teams in the OVC at 300 or over (Tenn St 300, Morehead St 302, Lindenwood 321, Little Rock 335, and EIU 340).  And no, I have no idea how EIU beat Iowa in Iowa City, unless Iowa chose fans from the stands and put them in uniforms for the game. But it didn’t seem to improve EIU’s NET much, and since Iowa has a NET of 38 I’d say losing to EIU didn’t hurt Iowa that much either.

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i have watched a couple of other siu-e games now.   i like barone, their coach.   not saying he is the end all, but he is from a basketball blood line.   his father coached college and the nba.   stepping stone?

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2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

Yes,  SIU-e has improved and that could help us.

Let's look at a few issues here first.  From the SIU-e spread thread on Dec19,2022, I wrote....With SIU-e,  we are facing the pride of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are most likely to win their conference  and to go dancing.  But as you can see by the spread this isn't a formidable team.  The OVC is one of the weakest conferences in D1.  I don't think I would change that statement. Today SIU-e is 10-5(sorry I can only use D1 teams). They are currently  showing as a C team vs a D+ team on Dec 19. Again no surprise. Yes , they did beat 4-12 EIU (an F- team) one of the worst in D1.  And yes, EIU beat Iowa.  And like the 6 degrees of separation,  you can say you are related to Kevin Bacon. You can take a series of upsets and make SIU-e or for that matter the Bills a top 25 team. But the computer will tell you that's not the way it works.

When I asked the computer what D1 team is most like SIU-e today, it came up with an interesting answer. ...it said GW.  But that really doesn't help us much. So the only way to get an answer is to setup another game tonight at the Fetz against SIU-e to see what happens. Since it is hypothetical , we win the game by 12.  What this means is that even with their win over us and with the betterment of the SIU-e team overall, we still beat them easily. The real SIU-e game was an upset/aberration. It happens ...ask Iowa...that loss to EIU was much worse.

Bottom line...SIU-e's improvement helps us a bit by making the loss less damaging...BUT it is still damaging.  And because they are playing in the weak OVC they won't be able to improve much more.   So we have to undo the damage by doing some winning.  A win over GW exceeding the spread wouldn't erase all the damage but would be a big help in turning things around.

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the wiz is sure fun to read.   whether you agree with him or not, cant deny he does his homework.  

thanks wiz for all you do for us mbm's!

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2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

We're not trying to justify losing to SIUE at home now, are we??

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1 hour ago, Lord Elrond said:

And no, I have no idea how EIU beat Iowa in Iowa City, unless Iowa chose fans from the stands and put them in uniforms for the game. But it didn’t seem to improve EIU’s NET much, and since Iowa has a NET of 38 I’d say losing to EIU didn’t hurt Iowa that much either.

Kris Murray was out with an injury along with Conner Mccaffery. The Hawkeyes had a terrible shooting day. Patrick Mccaffery was in the midst of whatever anxiety problems currently have him absent from playing. 

They still should beat a team like EIU but that's what happened.

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3 hours ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz said, “… but we still need to fix the mess from SIUE.”

Are you talking about the first place in the OVC, 13-5 overall, SIUE Cougars? The same SIUE Cougars who rolled EIU last night 80-62? Keep in mind that’s the EIU team that beat Iowa. Of course, EIU is 6-12 on the season so who knows how that happened.

I’m thinking the loss to SIUE will wind up being a loss to an NCAA tourney team when all is said and done as, so far, they look like the class of the OVC.

 

The mess was losing a 16 point lead to what you call the best team in the OVC.  That game was won and we just choked it away.

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Bishop is the key ...... he's a gunner who likes to go to his left.  I believe he shoots lefthanded but I haven't watched Geedubya this year --- can only take so much bad basketball.  Brendan Adams is a nice complimentary guard.  Ricky Lindo is a 6'8", former four-star recruit that transferred inf rom Maryland a few years back.  This year they added KState transfer Maximus Edwards.  The fifth wheel on their wagon is Hunter Dean .... who's never really showed much over his time there by is averaging 7 ppg this year.  

In his last five games, Bishop has put up 25, 25, 40, 22 and 25.  He is truly Geedubya's offense.  I guess this will be a Yuri Collins cover set up.  All A10 first conference defender on Bishop.  And with Adams as PG 2.0, it might actually work better to have Hughes guard him and not Jimerson.  Okoro can negate Dean.  Lindo is more distance shooter than power four, and Edwards is still finding his rhythm.  Hargrove should do well here as should Pickett and Perkins, if he can stay with him.  

Three points is really scary ---- I think we should be much better and win going away but this is the Bills on the road.

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28 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Bishop is the key ...... he's a gunner who likes to go to his left.  I believe he shoots lefthanded but I haven't watched Geedubya this year --- can only take so much bad basketball.  Brendan Adams is a nice complimentary guard.  Ricky Lindo is a 6'8", former four-star recruit that transferred inf rom Maryland a few years back.  This year they added KState transfer Maximus Edwards.  The fifth wheel on their wagon is Hunter Dean .... who's never really showed much over his time there by is averaging 7 ppg this year.  

In his last five games, Bishop has put up 25, 25, 40, 22 and 25.  He is truly Geedubya's offense.  I guess this will be a Yuri Collins cover set up.  All A10 first conference defender on Bishop.  And with Adams as PG 2.0, it might actually work better to have Hughes guard him and not Jimerson.  Okoro can negate Dean.  Lindo is more distance shooter than power four, and Edwards is still finding his rhythm.  Hargrove should do well here as should Pickett and Perkins, if he can stay with him.  

Three points is really scary ---- I think we should be much better and win going away but this is the Bills on the road.

For some reason I thought Bishop had a bad game against us last year. Turns out he put up 30 points. I still think he’s overrated and this is a good matchup for us tho

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11 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

GW (8-8, 2-1) has 7 transfers, in one form or another, of its 8 top players, mercenaries. SLU is playing the Hessians. 
 

Bishop averages 22.3 ppg, Adams 16.2, Lindo 10.3, Edwards 9.4, Dean 7.9. GW is 7-2 at home, 1-3 away, 0-3 neutral.

So WE’RE General George Washington, in this scenario?? My brain just exploded. 🤯 

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9 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

Wiz: What does the computer say the over/under on Travis’s Ts is today?

Zero...he will be a good boy today. Can't afFORD any Ts with a 3pt spread.

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