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The Bills and Dayton Even


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Chance to Dance
 
The Bills...52%...dn
VCU..........57%...up
Dav...........51%....dn
 
Yes, we slipped back a little on the Dance Chance.   Also, we slipped a little on our grade...Back to B+....Why? ...A closer than expected win at home against a B team.    A win against Day will fix Dance Chance and our grade.
 
Just the same, it was still a great win against a very tough Iona  defense.  If you want to know the how and why of that victory there is plenty to read in the post game analysis on the Iona spread thread.
 
Next up Dayton...Day  matches our B+... thus the close game.   Day, historically, is one of the most difficult venues coming in at #48 ITN in difficulty for visiting teams....Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts.  And yet we are even...says a lot about the Bills.  As expected we will have no room for error.  I have added an addendum to the report card to clarify what we are up against. ...Opp def rebs  and shooting  2P%.  These 2 categories that Day excels in are closely tied together. If they make most of their shots then there are less rebs.   So we have our work cut out for us.
 
Let's move to the report card.
 
....................SLU.....................Day..........................SLU.........................Day

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................D+...........................C..............................B+

FG%...............B......................A..............................B-..............................C+

3Pt%.............B.......................D+.............................B+.............................C

FT%...............A......................C-.................................................................

Reb...............A-......................C-..............................B+.............................A+ 7th ITN

Addendum to the report card....

Day...2P%...A+...13th ITN

Day...Opponent Def Reb...A+...6th ITN

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....FT%...Reb.....Def....FG%...3P%

Down....Off...FG%...3P%.....Def...none

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...1st...up

FTA/gm....The Bills....4th....dn

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...unch

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...unch

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 2nd... dn

Stls......Collins....46th....dn

Dou Dou...Collins...94th ...dn

FT%...Jimerson...63rd ...up

Blks...Okoro...86th

Day

FG%,,,Holmes...22nd

Stls...Smith.......68th

Assts...Smith...72nd

Blks...Holmes...31st


Injures/Illness

Linssen...Ques...Ankle...1/8/21...unknown at this time if he will be ready to play  on Tues @ Dayton

Courtney...Ques...Illness...1/8/21...unclear at this time if he will be ready to play on Tues @ Day

Day...no injuries or illness

 Welcome to the list... Okoro as he breaks through with blocks and a big jump up for Jimerson on the FT side.  Yuri drops back to 2nd in assts but remember that he is 2nd out of all D1 players...not too shabby.  As for the report card ...offense slipped a little as was to be expected when facing a great defense. But the improvement on defense is a pleasant surprise that hopefully will continue. Good D can help make up for bad shooting nights.

Keys to the Game

Smith is their Yuri but to a lesser extent....Assts , stls and scoring.... plus a couple of big guys upfront... 6'10 Holmes and 6'8 Camara...lots of tip ins , dunks and put backs is what helps make them  6th ITN in 2s.  The  key to this game ...and Dayton's weakness is TOs...they are vulnerable....we need to take advantage of that while protecting the ball.  Another key is 3 pt shooting....we have an advantage over them from the arc. If we make some shots...we win

WWN2D2W

TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over. We also have to protect the ball. Smith can take some away but the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...4+ TO diff and we win.  Rebs will be harder to come by in this game...we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1.   46/36/77...make some shots especially 3s.  They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. Play D...like we did against Iona. If we do that ...it will also be a winner.  Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. 

Bottom line...If we force some TOs  (+4), make some 3s (36%) and grab at least as many boards as they do  then we will ground the Flyers.

 

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Make Smith shoot the ball.  All I’ve ever seen him do is make layups.  And he likes to drive left to right, not right to left.  Don’t let Holmes dunk.  It’s the only shot I’ve seen him make.  Easy to be sixth in nation with that.  Don’t let Weaver go ballistic as he tends to try.  He’s not that good.  The guards are young and unproven.  No time to let Brea or Elvis find themselves.  Blake net shoots threes but is inconsistent.  Amzil and Nwokeji in major sophomore slumps.  Must contain Camara.  
Always tough at UD Arena and I suspect this will be no different.

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I think the brawl with Iona the other night will serve us well against Dayton.  As many have mentioned, that will be the toughest defense we play all year.  I think we come out really strong tomorrow night

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14 hours ago, Matty Light said:

Which TV station is carrying the game?

The SLU Athletic Department has a website.  It can be found at slubillikens.com  Click through to the basketball page, and then either the game preview, or to the schedule.  The website lists all TV and radio for all games in both places.  Here is the link for the Dayton game preview.

https://slubillikens.com/news/2022/1/10/mens-basketball-mbb-preview-billikens-head-to-dayton-for-a-10-clash.aspx

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4 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

We haven't proved ourselves on the road over the past few years... Really looking forward to tomorrow, and I hope that narrative changes.

Already off to a good start this year by beating Boise State. That win has aged well. I’m hoping that we continue to change the narrative and beat the brakes off of Dayton.

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-after seeing him still hobble on Saturday I don't expect a lot from Martin this game but would love to be surprised

-we'll find out if CFord was holding the Two Bigs lineup for this game even if not the bigs he expected in that role

-I would like to see the 9 turnover Bills as against Richmond as opposed to the 19 turnover Bills from Iona (I remember seeing 20 under TOs on the ribbon board, not sure how one gets reclassified)

-I guess CFord was accurate when he said Markhi would get more time, would have thought more than 2 minutes 

-I expect that this SVU game will tell us a lot about what we are

 

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32 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-after seeing him still hobble on Saturday I don't expect a lot from Martin this game but would love to be surprised

So did Martin practice all week, but hop around Saturday?  I was confused by this when I say him walking around.  Unless he was just trying to walk without weight on it as a precaution,  and he could have played if they absolutely needed him too.  If this is the case I bet he plays. 

 

It will have been 3 weeks, so it must have been pretty bad. 

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38 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-we'll find out if CFord was holding the Two Bigs lineup for this game even if not the bigs he expected in that role

Holmes only shoots 54% from the line, wouldn't hate seeing Traore or Strickland in and just be super physical with him

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4 straight Ls to the SVU’ers should be motivation for a smack down of the Flyers. I expect a tight game and not their 20pt wipeout of us last year. Although, I’ll hand it to Grant who thorough outcoached Travis in that one. Hoping Linssen is good to go. 

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54 minutes ago, wgstl said:

So did Martin practice all week, but hop around Saturday?  I was confused by this when I say him walking around.  Unless he was just trying to walk without weight on it as a precaution,  and he could have played if they absolutely needed him too.  If this is the case I bet he plays. 

 

It will have been 3 weeks, so it must have been pretty bad. 

I'm pretty sure (but can't swear to it), that after Okoro got his 4th foul Saturday night, they sent Martin down the passageway at the end of the bench and he got on a bike to get warmed up.  If Okoro had fouled out, I think there was a good chance we would have seen him for the last couple of minutes of the game.  I could be wrong, and maybe he was just starting to cramp up and needed some exercise, but I take it from that that he's pretty close to returning.  It may be that Ford decided it would be better to hold him back one more game (and a non-conference game) and have him in better shape for Dayton (a conference game) than to risk him again Iona - but that if we needed him for just a couple of minutes at the end of the game that was a risk he was thinking about taking.

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Just now, Wendelprof said:

I'm pretty sure (but can't swear to it), that after Okoro got his 4th foul Saturday night, they sent Martin down the passageway at the end of the bench and he got on a bike to get warmed up.  If Okoro had fouled out, I think there was a good chance we would have seen him for the last couple of minutes of the game.  I could be wrong, and maybe he was just starting to cramp up and needed some exercise, but I take it from that that he's pretty close to returning.  It may be that Ford decided it would be better to hold him back one more game (and a non-conference game) and have him in better shape for Dayton (a conference game) than to risk him again Iona - but that if we needed him for just a couple of minutes at the end of the game that was a risk he was thinking about taking.

I did see him walk back there quickly and timing leads me to think this was exactly it. 

The 2nd part - Is Linssen walking funny bc it still bothers him, or he's just trying to keep as much off as possible. 

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3 hours ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

Already off to a good start this year by beating Boise State. That win has aged well. I’m hoping that we continue to change the narrative and beat the brakes off of Dayton.

Agreed -> keep the away train rolling from Boise. I still think about how remarkable that game was, especially with the early Yuri and TJ foul trouble.

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4 hours ago, Fraz said:

I think the brawl with Iona the other night will serve us well against Dayton.  As many have mentioned, that will be the toughest defense we play all year.  I think we come out really strong tomorrow night

If home court advantage goes to Dayton because the refs give them more than us it could be a long night.  It will be interesting to see how they decide to call the game.

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linssen was riding that bike off and on the whole game.   i sit directly diagonal from that tunnel and could see him in there quite a bit.  

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As per TR Dayton (89 ranking TR) is expected to beat SLU (65 ranking TR) by 3 pts with 1 star of confidence. Dayton has beaten Kansas (6 TR rankings, only loss this season by KS so far, a real upset KS was expected to win with 5 stars of confidence), Belmont (46 TR ranking, only 1 star of confidence in favor of Belmont), VA Tech (27 TR ranking, only 1 star of confidence in favor of VA Tech). The stats before the KS game were much better for KS offensive, but even with Dayton in Defense. Belmont had better stats in both offensive and defensive than Dayton. VA Tech had better stats in both offensive and defensive than Dayton.

The game tomorrow is interesting, the stats for SLU are a lot better in offense than Dayton's but roughly equal in defense. The level of confidence is a single star. I think this is a game that will be pretty tough to win, but we can do it. Dayton has so far 6 losses to significantly inferior teams to them. Linssen or no Linssen, I think we can beat them. Again I hope to see Strickland playing more minutes this time.

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A tough loss because this was a winnable game.

Let's take a look and see what happened.  Bolded phrases are from my original post.

Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts....This wasn't the only reason we lost but it matches up nicely with the even spread and a 5 pt loss.

TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over....We didn't...lost the TO battle 15-12...We also have to protect the ball...we didn't... the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...we did...4+ TO diff and we win....instead we had 3 extra TOs  and lost...so what does this mean?...we get 10pts on TOs...they get 17 pts on TOs...7pt diff in a 5 pt loss

46/36/77...actual slash 42/ 56/83...this is actual worse than it looks...the actual 2P% shooting was 36%...44.5%  or less is F-....we needed 3 more 2PM to get up to F-....6pts in a 5pt loss.

They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. ....needed 7 more pts in a 5 pt loss

Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. ...we fell a little short here ...they scored 30....6pts  extra in a 5pt loss

we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1. ...reb was weak...we lost the reb battle 34-28...3 extra Off rebs and 3 extra Def rebs for Day...whether that meant 3 extra chances for them or 3 extra for us ...let's look at 2nd chance pts ...Day 11pts..The Bills...2pts....9 extra pts for Day in a 5 pt loss.

And that's why this was a tough loss...not just 1 chance to win but many.

But it wasn't all gloom and doom...we saw the return of the 3 pt bomb led by Jimerson (23pts) and Hargrove(14pts) who had a stunning shooting night from the arc combining for  78% (7-9)...Okoro got 8 reb and Yuri got 9 assists....again these were all good things ...we just needed 1 more good thing ....choose from the list above.

Dayton did not win this game...we lost it.   Can we fix 1 of the above by Feb 5 ( Flyers  at the Fetz that day) ?  If the answer is yes , then we will win...if we fix more than 1 thing, we can whup them.

 

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