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The Bills over BSU by 1


The Wiz
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This game is not what it appears to be. This will be a strange game.  At the beginning of the season, I had this game as a question mark. That means to close to call.  In recent days , I had the edge to Boise but after last night's upset to Cal St-Bak the edge swung back  to The Bills.  SLU comes into this game continuing to hold it's A- grade which keeps us on track for a Dance bid.  BSU is a B team with a big home field advantage....BSU is one of the tougher D1 venues to play in.
So what are we up against here besides home  field advantage....BSU has one of the worst offenses in D1...I would say this is one of the worst offenses we have faced in years....not the worst team but one of the worst offenses.  So this must mean that BSU has a great defense...Nope ..just average.  Let's review ...B team vs A- ..Bad offense and average defense. So this should be a piece of cake....not quite.   BSU is 16th ITN in PPG allowed.  BSU can't beat you with their offense and really can't beat you with their D either. So what's going on ? They slow the game down...really slow.  The perfect game for BSU is less than 120 pts.  A target score for them every game would be a 61-56 win.  The most pts they have allowed in a game this season was against St. B in a 67-61  loss. That game alone should be a wake up call for  the Bills ...not a team to take lightly.
 
Let's also take a look at last night's game as it relates to us. CSU came in as a heavy underdog...a D team facing a B team.  They turned the tables on the Broncos by slowing the game down even more and wound up upsetting BSU 44-39.  There is a lesson to be learned here but first let's take a look at the report card.
 
..........................SLU...............................BSU..........................SLU...........................BSU

..........................................OFF..................................................................DEF.............

PPG...................A+ 7th ITN................F................................B.................................A+...16th ITN

FG%..................A-..............................F+..............................B-...............................C

3Pt%................B+...............................F...............................C...................................C+

FT%.................B+........ ......................F-...7th WITH.............................................

Reb.................A-................................C-.............................B+..............................C+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...FT%.....Def....3P%...Reb

Down....Off...none...Def....PPG...FG%

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins...3rd...unch

Stls......Collins....26th....down

Blks...Okoro......79th...down

FG%....Linssen....77th...up

Double-Double....Hargrove...33th....down

BSU

Rebs...Armus...71st

 

Our offense continues strong...Our defense is above average.

WWN2D2W

We need to do what we do ...play our game ...make our target numbers....target slash 48/38/ 75....TO  target 11....Rebs...win the battle by 6...hold their top 3 guys to 25 pts.

Bottom line...Make our numbers...if we do that,  we win no matter what the speed....If we can speed it up  (score 70+) we can win big.  Their plan is to slow it down and hope we screw it up.   Cal St proved yesterday,  you can win in slow motion if you take care of business.

 

 

 

 

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OK finally Team Rankings published its predictions for this game. They have Boise St favorite to win by 5 pts, with a confidence of 2 stars. Their statistic comparison of both teams show they are very close to one another. Personally, I think your evaluation is much better than theirs is, even with this one being an away game for us.

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I wonder what causes boise to have such a strong home advantage? It is at about 2,700 feet which isn't that significant. Only ~700 higher than Las Vegas and doesn't sniff any of the universities in Colorado or Utah. I can't imagine they draw the greatest crowds - must be their Bronco court.

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We are the better team but that doesn't mean we automatically win.  As I mentioned above this will be a strange game. Normally stats like these and we win by 6.  Besides the difficult venue, they will try to mess with us. This game will not be about their hot shooter or the magical defense that stops us.  This will be about a game in slow motion. A game meant disrupt us and throw our rhythm off.  Cal St  had little chance to win the other night because they aren't that good. aren't that good. But they turned the tables on BSU   by super slowing  it down and it worked.  We  will not have to do that because we are not over marched. We need to make shots and avoid TOs...Those things are magnified in a low scoring game....We need to get the lead and try to open it up a bit....a slow low scoring game doesn't help you in the 4th quarter if you are down.

Play Billiken ball and we win.

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I'd like to see our 1-3-1 defense again - this is a team that can't shoot well and won't be a threat to tear apart that defense, nor do they rebound particularly well. The 1-3-1 will be our best chance of controlling the tempo and getting our fast break points and if Boise gets a taste of the run and gun, highlight reel style of play we've grown fond of they won't know what to do with it. I'd like to see us playing athletically and maybe some Markhi PT to stir it up on defense and open up the fast break. 

Bills by 40. 

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23 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

We are the better team but that doesn't mean we automatically win.  As I mentioned above this will be a strange game. Normally stats like these and we win by 6.  Besides the difficult venue, they will try to mess with us. This game will not be about their hot shooter or the magical defense that stops us.  This will be about a game in slow motion. A game meant disrupt us and throw our rhythm off.  Cal St  had little chance to win the other night because they aren't that good. aren't that good. But they turned the tables on BSU   by super slowing  it down and it worked.  We  will not have to do that because we are not over marched. We need to make shots and avoid TOs...Those things are magnified in a low scoring game....We need to get the lead and try to open it up a bit....a slow low scoring game doesn't help you in the 4th quarter if you are down.

Play Billiken ball and we win.

You keep saying that Boise  has a difficult venue - why?  Now I know you may say well visiting teams do poorly there - but why?  I get that playing in a Cameron at Duke is different then another away venue because of the crowd and proximity of the fans to the court so why is specifically is Boise so tough as opposed to most other venues?

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10 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

You keep saying that Boise  has a difficult venue - why?  Now I know you may say well visiting teams do poorly there - but why?  I get that playing in a Cameron at Duke is different then another away venue because of the crowd and proximity of the fans to the court so why is specifically is Boise so tough as opposed to most other venues?

FWIW* KenPom has Boise as the 55th toughest arena to play in based data from their last 60 home & road conference games.  At 2,700 feet Boise is 23th highest elevation in the nation.  It's nothing compared to Colorado (5,400) or Wyoming (7,200), but I'd guess that's still enough to play a small factor.  Nearly half of all D-1 teams are at less than than 500 feet elevation, so it is 2,000+ feet above "normal" in Boise.

*KenPom says that his home court advantage rankings aren't very predictive / stable, so they should be taken with a grain of salt.

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21 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

You keep saying that Boise  has a difficult venue - why?  Now I know you may say well visiting teams do poorly there - but why?  I get that playing in a Cameron at Duke is different then another away venue because of the crowd and proximity of the fans to the court so why is specifically is Boise so tough as opposed to most other venues?

Parr of it is a long ride to BSU...they don't call it Extra Mile Arena foe nothing .  And while Boise isn't Denver it is more than  a half mile high... a difference  maker...no wonder they want to slow things down.  Extra Mile is also a concert venue....not the best site lines for bball.  Finally, when it comes to sports BSU is the only game in town. ...seats 12000+...usually have decent crowds.

Nothing here we can't overcome with better shooting.

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53 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

I'd like to see our 1-3-1 defense again - this is a team that can't shoot well and won't be a threat to tear apart that defense, nor do they rebound particularly well. The 1-3-1 will be our best chance of controlling the tempo and getting our fast break points and if Boise gets a taste of the run and gun, highlight reel style of play we've grown fond of they won't know what to do with it. I'd like to see us playing athletically and maybe some Markhi PT to stir it up on defense and open up the fast break. 

Bills by 40. 

No. Just play man. No reason to open our poor zone D to another team’s hit night. If they can’t score against man, just man them up.

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23 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Parr of it is a long ride to BSU...they don't call it Extra Mile Arena foe nothing .  And while Boise isn't Denver it is more than  a half mile high... a difference  maker...no wonder they want to slow things down.  Extra Mile is also a concert venue....not the best site lines for bball.  Finally, when it comes to sports BSU is the only game in town. ...seats 12000+...usually have decent crowds.

Nothing here we can't overcome with better shooting.

In the sense that they are the only sports show in town, they attract crowds like Dayton does, everyone in town follows them one way or the other and they have or should have an effect upon the game.

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1 hour ago, Brighton said:

Yes, and from what I've heard on KDNL as well.

KDNL (St Louis ABC station) is channel 30.1 if you have an antenna.  Stadium is KDNLDT4 30.4 if you have an antenna.  They aren’t the same channel.

If you have cable or satellite, it won’t be on the regular KDNL station either.  You’ll have to see if your package carries Stadium.

Either way you can also stream or watch online for free a variety of ways https://watchstadium.com/where-to-watch/

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55 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

KDNL (St Louis ABC station) is channel 30.1 if you have an antenna.  Stadium is KDNLDT4 30.4 if you have an antenna.  They aren’t the same channel.

If you have cable or satellite, it won’t be on the regular KDNL station either.  You’ll have to see if your package carries Stadium.

Either way you can also stream or watch online for free a variety of ways https://watchstadium.com/where-to-watch/

good wrap  up. the over the air thing works fine if u have anything hooked up to the antenna thingie & live in metro area closer to the towers the better.

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12 minutes ago, almaman said:

good wrap  up. the over the air thing works fine if u have anything hooked up to the antenna thingie & live in metro area closer to the towers the better.

Yep.  I’m a cord cutter.  I have an antenna hooked up, but I’m still probably just going to stream the game on my Roku because I won’t have to worry about it being choppy if the reception isn’t great.

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CBS Sports is showing Boise State -3.5, o132.

ESPN.com also has Boise State -3.5, Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, with Matchup Predictor at SLU 38.7%, BSU at 61.3%.

It is obviously tough to win on the road against a quality opponent sniffing an NCAA Tourney bid itself, losses at UC Irvine and at home vs. Cal State Bakersfield notwithstanding.

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3 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

CBS Sports is showing Boise State -3.5, o132.

ESPN.com also has Boise State -3.5, Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, with Matchup Predictor at SLU 38.7%, BSU at 61.3%.

It is obviously tough to win on the road against a quality opponent sniffing an NCAA Tourney bid itself, losses at UC Irvine and at home vs. Cal State Bakersfield notwithstanding.

Actually the recent loss at home against CSU Bakersfield, may give them an extra incentive to redeem themselves by beating us tonight. It will be an interesting game.

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