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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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11 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

Once again, I am not arguing for or against any particular economic/epidemiological strategy with you here. 

I’m pointing out that if you’re going to insult the intelligence of other board members and act as the gatekeeper for biomedical discussion, you better not ever get anything wrong. 

Which you‘ve now done three times today. 

Sounds like Troll Guy is getting owned today...

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2 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I have a question on vaccines. Why is it going to take 12-18 months? Or at least why does it have to take 12 months at all. From what I have read, we have 70 different vaccine options in development. I would imagine that we could get a statistically significant number of volunteers to take each of these vaccines. Assuming you could get individuals brave enough to test the vaccine and then be exposed. It is undeniable that people would die with this approach, but if it saves lives overall, wouldn’t the ends justify the means? My fear is that we are following stages and protocols because that is the law, not because it is the fastest and best means to save lives in this situation.

Here is an interview Bill Gates gave on why vaccines take 12-18 months.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/09/bill-gates-an-effective-covid-19-vaccine-is-at-least-18-months-away.html

 

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21 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

Once again, I am not arguing for or against any particular economic/epidemiological strategy with you here. 

I’m pointing out that if you’re going to insult the intelligence of other board members and act as the gatekeeper for biomedical discussion, you better not ever get anything wrong. 

Which you‘ve now done three times today. 

And if you are going to be the master of correctness you should come clean and say how many millions of people and businesses you would like to see bankrupt for a meaningless test.

However, you cannot bear to reveal your inner thoughts in matters like these, or do you?

Who is worse, me for what you claim are errors or you for actively backing up a political attempt to bankrupt millions of people for a meaningless test? Sleep well tonight toots.

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11 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Who is worse, me for what you claim are errors or you for actively backing up a political attempt to bankrupt millions of people for a meaningless test? Sleep well tonight toots.

you

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1 hour ago, GBL_Bills said:

Once again, I am not arguing for or against any particular economic/epidemiological strategy with you here. 

I’m pointing out that if you’re going to insult the intelligence of other board members and act as the gatekeeper for biomedical discussion, you better not ever get anything wrong. 

Which you‘ve now done three times today. 

it's early

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1 hour ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I think this is what bothers me. The approach is taken with the idea of limiting any risk to human life. Life is being lost everyday without a vaccine. I doubt, based on at least some experience with watching the development of vaccines and clinical trials from a legal perspective, that anyone is taking risks to expedite the development of the vaccine. Ultimately, it would be nice if the president granted immunity to anyone developing the vaccines and allowed them to speed things up. 

I doubt that the President can legally do that.  The other side of the coin is that if you develop a vaccine and it really is not that effective then you send people out into the community thinking they have some protection and then they really don't.  One of the problems with granting blanket immunity to the developers of a vaccine is that how do you know they really took reasonable caution and just simply didn't want to just rush to be the first on the market and make a windfall.  A reasonably cautious approach will in the long run save lives and should be the goal.

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6 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

I doubt that the President can legally do that.  The other side of the coin is that if you develop a vaccine and it really is not that effective then you send people out into the community thinking they have some protection and then they really don't.  One of the problems with granting blanket immunity to the developers of a vaccine is that how do you know they really took reasonable caution and just simply didn't want to just rush to be the first on the market and make a windfall.  A reasonably cautious approach will in the long run save lives and should be the goal.

I think we should avoid discussion of legal liability and the president’s powers. I honestly think we are in a situation which really can involve new laws and new interpretations. Everyone should just focus on doing the thing that reduces death the most. You can hedge any statement of immunity to things that are ”later determined to not be ‘grossly negligent.’”
 

But the line ‘a reasonable approach will save lives.’ I do not trust that this has been properly answered and considered. Even Bill Gates interview notes side effects and needing to determine the effects, but what if the effect of waiting is 500-600 thousand deaths whereas an immediate release of a vaccine is 500 thousand people with chronic liver disease. What are the odds of a major long term disease? Is there an example we can look at for a failed vaccine launch?

I am highly skeptical that we can contain this virus with testing at this point, either by its scope in the US or simply by our incompetence. If we can’t, then we either need a vaccine or herd immunity. If we choose herd immunity, there is a potential we could get there with reduced fatalities, but even then it is above 350 thousand. Based on our incompetence so far, I think it would be over 1 million people.  A vaccine would solve all of our problems, and I just starting to think we may run into a time where we have to roll the dice. If so, then we need a vaccine where hundreds to maybe even thousands have received the vaccine and then exposure to Covid19 to test its efficacy, and we really do not have time to waste.

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9 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Is there an example we can look at for a failed vaccine launch?

Yes, there are examples. The first effective vaccine against polyo was the Salk vaccine based upon a dead virus (treated with formalin if I recall correctly). It was a fine vaccine with good results. The next development, and I  cannot recall the name of the vaccine used a live virus which was mitigated. Unfortunately, there were a number of early batches of this vaccine where the mitigation procedure did not work as expected and actual live fully infective virus was used to vaccinate children and some adults. This did not produce a good outcome. It has happened in the past, it is important that situations like these are not repeated. By the way, it was a manufacturing error that produced the faulty vaccine.

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5 hours ago, bleedtheblue said:

Time allows more resources to diagnose and treat the disease. Also I asked you to link the references so I can read them please. Thanks!

If it acts at all like its cousins the common cold it is going to continue to circulate throughout the population from here on out.  Everyone will eventually contract it, most more than once.  
 

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

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5 hours ago, GBL_Bills said:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/emirates-passengers-undergo-coronavirus-blood-tests-before-flight/

Looks like it's still an antibody test. But, regardless, advances in rapid testing are great. And antibody information is valuable as well, because, hopefully, people with antibodies would be immune from catching it again.

thank you for the clarification.

 

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4 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I have a question on vaccines. Why is it going to take 12-18 months? Or at least why does it have to take 12 months at all. From what I have read, we have 70 different vaccine options in development. I would imagine that we could get a statistically significant number of volunteers to take each of these vaccines. Assuming you could get individuals brave enough to test the vaccine and then be exposed. It is undeniable that people would die with this approach, but if it saves lives overall, wouldn’t the ends justify the means? My fear is that we are following stages and protocols because that is the law, not because it is the fastest and best means to save lives in this situation.

I would be really pleasantly surprised if we had a safe an effective vaccine in 18 months or less we don’t have a great track record when it comes to Coronaviruses.

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8 hours ago, brianstl said:

What was done needed to be done so the medical system wouldn’t be overwhelmed. That said the sad thing is no lives were saved.  Those deaths were just delayed.  This is a novel virus that spreads easily.  It is going to keep spreading and keep taking lives until their is a vaccine.  The vaccine is years away at least.  It could be decades away.

So going forward what kind of world are we willing to live in for the next five or more years?  Because that is what is what we are deciding.  Do you want a world where you don’t vacation away from you live? Are you cool with never going to a sporting event again?  Are you ok with peoples kids not be able to play team sports?  High schoolers never having a school dance? No traditional church services? No more Fair St. Louis? No school picnics?

Because that is the next five years of slowing the spread.  These are the things we need to ask ourselves.  The virus isn’t a few month thing or even an 18 month thing.  COVID 19 is our long term future.  We need to come to terms with that.

In this scenario, It would lead to World War 3. US troops would be on the ground in China. The western world would blame them and that’s the inevitable conclusion. And if the current politicians wouldn’t do it, a jailed society would vote in politicians who would. 

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36 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

In this scenario, It would lead to World War 3. US troops would be on the ground in China. The western world would blame them and that’s the inevitable conclusion. And if the current politicians wouldn’t do it, a jailed society would vote in politicians who would. 

Which is why need to start having an honest conversation about the kind of future we are willing to accept as a society.  COVID 19 isn’t going away. Even herd immunity is likely only temporary. So if the plan is shutdowns, social distancing and massive testing; we are going to be in a almost constant cycle of starting and ending those processes.  
 
Many people are living under the assumption that if we just stick with giving up our jobs, our freedom and our privacy for 18 months we will have a vaccine or at worst we will eventually have herd immunity and then we can get back to life without having to deal with COVID 19.  None of that is likely going to happen.  It is in all likelihood going to take much longer to get a vaccine and the herd immunity is only temporary. This thing is here to stay.

 

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Angela Merkel is authorizing Phase 1 of the opening of Germany's economy.  Schools, stores up to 8600 sq ft in size, auto showrooms, bike shops and bookshops will reopen over the next two weeks.  Since Germany did the best job of responding the pandemic among Western countries, it's no surprise that they got to this point first.  Officials will review the situation again on April 30.

 

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8 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Angel Merkel is authorizing Phase 1 of the opening of Germany's economy.  Schools, stores up to 8600 sq ft in size, auto showrooms, bike shops and bookshops will reopen over the next two weeks.  Since Germany did the best job of responding the pandemic among Western countries, it's no surprise that they got to this point first.  Officials will review the situation again on April 30.

 

So let me get this straight. She used science and medical professionals to guide her on the epidemic.  And now she gets to open her economy.  Wow it is like Science and Medicine are not actually harmful, perhaps even beneficial.....who woulda thunk.

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On 4/11/2020 at 8:24 AM, Basketbill said:

 New England Journal published the pilot study of Remdesivir for severe CV19.  The follow up study is ongoing and SLU is one if the 75 centers.  This data looks pretty good though a small study, so patient selection bias is a potential problem, but some pretty sick patient got better.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016

 

hope that worked

additional studies are looking good.  Next study results anticipated in may hearsay fro U Chicago has patients with severe disease going home quickly.

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Brianstl, JMM28, basketbill, 3star. We live quite well with no vaccine against HIV, even though this is a terrible disease that wastes people before it kills them. We accept this, just as out of mind as we accept the deaths from influenza, and the deaths from neurodegenerative disorders. Face it, no one lives forever, we all die some day or the other, sooner or later for one cause or the other. Corona will become one of those events that kills people, perhaps a large number of people, each year with no one noticing. Believe me there. WHAT WE TOTALLY< COMPLETELY AND ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO DO IS TO AVOID WW3. That will end things pretty fast and without a solution.

Give this epidemic a chance to work out, give people a chance to get back to  work, and get the attitude that we can and will have normal lives and our children can and will have normal lives, even if a lot of people die each year of this bug. More people die of cancer, heart attack, traffic accidents, and HIV each year, right in this country. We will not live having to wear masks and gloves, that is complete BS. Population immunity will grow and deter new corona epidemics from having the effects it is showing now. Partial immunity, not complete immunity to the strain du jour, will lower the death toll to a more acceptable level as time goes by. We will have sports and rallies. All we really have to do is to calm down and not go to war. Being tough is not lashing out, or panicking, being tough is taking it and moving on. We can do it.

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26 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

So let me get this straight. She used science and medical professionals to guide her on the epidemic.  And now she gets to open her economy.  Wow it is like Science and Medicine are not actually harmful, perhaps even beneficial.....who woulda thunk.

She also started building testing capacity in JANUARY.

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5 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I think this is what bothers me. The approach is taken with the idea of limiting any risk to human life. Life is being lost everyday without a vaccine. I doubt, based on at least some experience with watching the development of vaccines and clinical trials from a legal perspective, that anyone is taking risks to expedite the development of the vaccine. Ultimately, it would be nice if the president granted immunity to anyone developing the vaccines and allowed them to speed things up. 

That is totally how you get zombies.



Or more seriously, thing like Gulf War Syndrome.

 

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5 hours ago, Old guy said:

And if you are going to be the master of correctness you should come clean and say how many millions of people and businesses you would like to see bankrupt for a meaningless test.

However, you cannot bear to reveal your inner thoughts in matters like these, or do you?

Who is worse, me for what you claim are errors or you for actively backing up a political attempt to bankrupt millions of people for a meaningless test? Sleep well tonight toots.

Psychological projection is alive and well.  Careful Old Guy, your politics keep showing. ...oh and over 35,000 U.S. deaths and counting April 16, 2020. And, as always the numbers are vastly underreported.

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24 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Brianstl, JMM28, basketbill, 3star. We live quite well with no vaccine against HIV, even though this is a terrible disease that wastes people before it kills them. We accept this, just as out of mind as we accept the deaths from influenza, and the deaths from neurodegenerative disorders. Face it, no one lives forever, we all die some day or the other, sooner or later for one cause or the other. Corona will become one of those events that kills people, perhaps a large number of people, each year with no one noticing. Believe me there. WHAT WE TOTALLY< COMPLETELY AND ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO DO IS TO AVOID WW3. That will end things pretty fast and without a solution.

Give this epidemic a chance to work out, give people a chance to get back to  work, and get the attitude that we can and will have normal lives and our children can and will have normal lives, even if a lot of people die each year of this bug. More people die of cancer, heart attack, traffic accidents, and HIV each year, right in this country. We will not live having to wear masks and gloves, that is complete BS. Population immunity will grow and deter new corona epidemics from having the effects it is showing now. Partial immunity, not complete immunity to the strain du jour, will lower the death toll to a more acceptable level as time goes by. We will have sports and rallies. All we really have to do is to calm down and not go to war. Being tough is not lashing out, or panicking, being tough is taking it and moving on. We can do it.

good post, out of reactions

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43 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

additional studies are looking good.  Next study results anticipated in may hearsay fro U Chicago has patients with severe disease going home quickly.

Here is a follow up to the story you posted....

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Small sample size ( 125) but even with that,  results look promising.... Next up, another phase III study ( last phase) with 4000 patients...results should come quickly.(weeks not months)

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45 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

So let me get this straight. She used science and medical professionals to guide her on the epidemic.  And now she gets to open her economy.  Wow it is like Science and Medicine are not actually harmful, perhaps even beneficial.....who woulda thunk.

Germany is an interesting case on many levels. The Swiss response was basically the same as the German response. The Swiss have actually tested more people on a per capita basis.  Yet, the Swiss death rate is much higher than that in Germany.  The Swiss death rate is higher than the US.  Part of it is the virus never really started spreading among seniors in Germany.

It isn’t like Germany has stopped the spread of the virus either.  Their daily new infection rate has slowed dramatically, but it isn’t exactly low at this point.

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On 4/15/2020 at 12:36 PM, brianstl said:

It would be great, but it really isn't going to change the ultimate body count. The virus isn't going anywhere and spreads too easily.  It is going to claim its victims eventually.  We can't put everyone in a bubble and the country isn't going to be able to stop the virus from being reintroduced from somewhere else even if we lockdown for a year.  Like I said earlier the death count isn't a scoreboard where we can keep it low by playing great defense.  It is clock that is going to keep on counting up until it claims all the people susceptible to it.  Everything we do is just delaying the inevitable running out of that clock.

There are some great benefits of delaying that clock, but at a certain point the cost of delaying that clock are going to be much higher than the benefits.  That is the conversation we need to be having instead of throwing around blame and claiming people are popping champagne over death totals/racists/communists/fools/etc..

Wait, what? You had no trouble posting death estimates repeatedly when you incorrectly thought there would be less than 26k deaths. Since we will not be remotely close to that already preposterously high number...Now the talking points are nothing could have prevented this? Racism? Systemic racism, as well as a racist administration is a big part of why we're here. Accountability matters. 70 days wasted of lack of preparation, lack of response, lack of execution, gross indifference.  I keep missing your posts that address that part. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/

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