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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

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3 hours ago, courtside said:

You’re kidding correct? 

You wouldn’t know his credentials from reading this thread. What I have seen is consistent downplaying of the pandemic from him and at other times wildly contradictory opinions of a few other things. 

I have seen downplaying of the significant lack of administration preparedness and long delayed initial response. I have seen the downplaying of testing and tracing. I have seen the downplaying of the length of time of the pandemic. (He said its over in May) He has said there will be less than 26k U.S. deaths as if more than twice the flu death rate is no big deal. (I’m sure he’ll come back and elevate the flu mortality rate for us) And, of course, man others have suggested numbers much higher. And this is while everything is being shut down for weeks now. 

Numbers would be even significantly higher without large mitigation efforts. The flu of of course has treatment and vaccines of which COVID-19 does not. I have seen questionable economic thoughts as if letting things continue business as usual would be better economically than current efforts. Many others would disagree. I have seen zero global interest on his part. I have not yet seen where he has also discussed and included significant long term damage such as lung damage and other potentials which greatly reduce quality of life and increase mortality rates.  

I saw him praise Dr. Fauci but later question him as Fauci’s many interviews don’t line up with Old Guy’s beliefs. 

 

I know people who know Old Guy from off the board. I thought Old Guy was an act before I was informed who he actually was and what he did/use to do.  This was all long before any of this stuff came up.  This is the stuff he did/does for a living.  If I recall correctly he has worked both in the public sector and in the private sector.  I think he and Fauci actually worked together at one point.

That doesn’t mean I agree with him about everything on this topic, but his opinion is informed and it is a topic he has expertise in.  His posts on this topic shouldn’t be cavalierly dismissed as many seem to be more than willing to do. He knows more about epidemics/pandemics than anyone else posting on this board.

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24 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I know people who know Old Guy from off the board. I thought Old Guy was an act before I was informed who he actually was and what he did/use to do.  This was all long before any of this stuff came up.  This is the stuff he did/does for a living.  If I recall correctly he has worked both in the public sector and in the private sector.  I think he and Fauci actually worked together at one point.

That doesn’t mean I agree with him about everything on this topic, but his opinion is informed and it is a topic he has expertise in.  His posts on this topic shouldn’t be cavalierly dismissed as many seem to be more than willing to do. He knows more about epidemics/pandemics than anyone else posting on this board.

What I can do go by are the content of his posts. His posts here and mine speak for themselves. If you want to defer to Old Guy go ahead. I am not choosing to do so for reasons already explained.

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I tend to ride the middle enough to anger both sides. I do want to say that I appreciate Old Guy’s inputs for the discussion. I appreciate Roy too. I think BigBill was a bit too inflammatory, but so it goes. 

I personally do not believe the world is ending. I do not believe we will see a million deaths stateside. I do happen to believe that quarantines and social distancing were the right calls at the time and with the info we had. Hindsight will show what could’ve been better. I do believe if we did significantly less than what we did that we may have seen millions die and we certainly still would’ve seen the economy crash. As the disease spread, people would’ve stopped spending regardless. I am hopeful the steps we took will make this a shorter term pain. 

The US is resilient and will recover. We will even be better for it. It may take months and it may take years. I will be happier when we stop debating how serious this is and start debating how to best set the country up for a V shaped recovery that will probably springboard us ahead of Italy (they are in an awful spot) and may not be a sharper recovery than Germany. If we want to gain some ground on China, it is the recovery where that will happen. 

Be safe everyone and at least take solace that we are doing things to save lives. I imagine a lot of clarity will come in the next 2-3 weeks. 

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6 hours ago, Old guy said:

Yes, I recall seeing the exact type of exponential curves of death early on during the HIV media induced terror. These curves were extrapolated to the level where the number of deaths would be calculated as a percentage of the total population of the world. It has happened before. The HIV epidemic was my area of work at the time. The population of the US was "virgin" to this bug, just like it is now to Covid-19. This bug had a restricted mode of transmission basically defined as blood borne (including blood based products, and IV drug usage) and sexual transmission. The exponential portion of the curve, with HIV, was due to the fact that the portion of the population most susceptible to  the disease plus the portion of the population in a highest risk category were the ones that were dying like flies at the start of this disease. This means that hemophiliacs receiving blood and platelet transfusions to control bleeding episodes were almost wiped out right away. Lots of stuff going on with the  media and with politicians at the time. My calculations showed a gradual flattening of the curve with a peak yearly death rate of 50,000 in the US.

When you gradually take away all the media, all the exponential curves pointing straight to the  moon that were published, and all the political hoopla generated, the epidemic of HIV transitioned into a chronic disease. The yearly death rate reached a peak of about 65,000 to 70,000  and then started decreasing. US HIV death rate was at about 30-35,000 per year the last time I checked MMWR (Mortality  and Morbidity Weekly Review), about 8 years ago. HIV is a terrible disease that wastes the patients visibly and SLOWLY kills them, nothing fast about this bug. It causes neurological involvement and degeneration, and by the time the patients die of this they are more than ready to go.

Yes, in the face of the  panic at the time of the HIV epidemic, my work went nowhere within my then company, the board was just as panicked as everyone else was.

There is a huge number of similarities between the way the Covid epidemic is playing and the  way the HIV epidemic played. The media played a most important part in the public perception of both epidemics. Panic was everywhere at that time, as it is now.

I believe something similar to what happened with  HIV is happening now with Covid, and, of course, very few people have a good memory of 1985-86 when this drama played out. Even fewer people involved in it as it played itself out. Then, as it is now, the epidemic became a public platform, the media fanned the panic, and everyone was scared.

Now, regarding Covid, and setting aside HIV, you must keep in mind a number of facts if you are going to retain your sanity:

1. Of course those people in the population most susceptible (or least naturally resistant to this disease or most debilitated when they got it) will die rapidly at the beginnings of the initial phase of  the epidemic. This is the phase we are in now.

2. The more you test, the  more cases you find. If the tests used at the start of the epidemic are not accurate and produce false positives and false negatives the numbers of cases become unreliable.

3. Lots of money have been approved to deal with this epidemic. In order to  secure the largest amount of the funds available everyone testing positive for the disease that dies is likely to be pronounced as a Covid death.

4. The fact does remain that having contact with the virus and dying soon afterwards, does NOT mean the virus caused the death. It can be caused by any other unrelated cause, but it will likely be blamed upon Covid.

This too will come to an end when the panic and the furor over all of this becomes a matter of fact that is slowly accepted. People will be infected with this bug, some will die from it, most will not. The initial flush of  deaths which eliminates the most susceptible portions of the population does not count, the curve will flatten and this will NOT be the black plague #2.

Please feel free to think I am FOS, and feel free to believe what you want.

 

i do remember the hiv panic exactly as you explained and do believe you are correct about this virus

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SLU_Lax, I think your belief is essentially correct. This is not the black plague sent by God to make us  pay for our sins. I also think that given the daily dose of "news" everybody is subject to you are reasonably calm and not in a state of panic. This is the way to face this crisis, with confidence that we will get to the other side in reasonable enough shape.

In most everybody's minds there is an incredible mix of issues, concepts, and emotions that are currently hitting against one another. Most people become incapable of making sense out of this. You brought the economy into this discussion, and rightfully so. The economy is not in good shape, how will it be once we are out the other end, how will it look? Will it look and operate the same way it did before we entered this situation, or will it be different?  If it is different, how much so? Who comes ahead and how are they going to do it? These are all valid questions, and you can better believe that there are plenty of people out there losing sleep and making plans to come out ahead.

The base of the current state of this country is  the epidemic, which is  due to a specific bug and which is largely independent and non responding to the rest of the factors in this stew. The epidemic will be controlled, it is the way it will be. It will not continue feeding on itself until all living beings have been eradicated, period. There are numbers (of cases and of dead) and methods that can be discussed forever, there is blame that can be pointed this way or the other also forever. BUT, independent of the epidemic itself there is a huge amount of money changing hands, and a sinking economy (at this time at least) which will have to recover. And there is a political process with elections that will have to be decided.

Keep this in mind, a lot of money will change hands, and a lot of people will do very well out of this situation. We live in interesting times, like in the old Chinese curse. We desperately need people that look at the glass half full at this time, not the glass half empty. 

Once more if you think I am FOS go right ahead. Believe what you want, but this bad genie is out of the bottle and will not come back into the bottle easily.

 

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Old guy has been a troll for years. I cant believe anyone on here still reads his posts

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Well the Social Distancing Guidelines were extended another 30 days.

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6 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Wow. Continually ignoring people who disagree with you shows the board everything we need to know about you. If people would step outside of their echo chambers, we would be a lot better off as a society.

bull****, you mean like the hate Trump crowds idea of tolerance??? The hate from the left never ends. We managed to have 8 years of a failed, weak President, without any discussion on Billiken.com... which just verifies my point that this hate is ALWAYS started by the liberal (moralist) on this board. I hope when this crisis passes, that these same haters direct the same outrage to the 3,000 babies killed every day in this country. Why am I skeptical that this will ever happen. How can you be a supporter of a Jesuit institution and look the other way at this atrocity??? The Coronavirus deaths are a pittance in comparison.... 

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43 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Old guy has been a troll for years. I cant believe anyone on here still reads his posts

Regardless of your personal feelings toward OG, he is THE medical expert on this board regarding pandemics.

BRoy is one of THE experts on mortgages and things banking.

When the going gets tough, it is always good to listen to a vetted expert and use their insight to set your sails.

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8 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

bull****, you mean like the hate Trump crowds idea of tolerance??? The hate from the left never ends. We managed to have 8 years of a failed, weak President, without any discussion on Billiken.com... which just verifies my point that this hate is ALWAYS started by the liberal (moralist) on this board. I hope when this crisis passes, that these same haters direct the same outrage to the 3,000 babies killed every day in this country. Why am I skeptical that this will ever happen. How can you be a supporter of a Jesuit institution and look the other way at this atrocity??? The Coronavirus deaths are a pittance in comparison.... 

BBF more like WTF

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8 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

bull****, you mean like the hate Trump crowds idea of tolerance??? The hate from the left never ends. We managed to have 8 years of a failed, weak President, without any discussion on Billiken.com... which just verifies my point that this hate is ALWAYS started by the liberal (moralist) on this board. I hope when this crisis passes, that these same haters direct the same outrage to the 3,000 babies killed every day in this country. Why am I skeptical that this will ever happen. How can you be a supporter of a Jesuit institution and look the other way at this atrocity??? The Coronavirus deaths are a pittance in comparison.... 

Three requests for you: (1) explain how Obama was a “failed, weak President”; (2) read Roe v. Wade; and (3) understand this is not political.

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Good news all, StL County has had a 54% decrease in total confirmed cases over the last 24 hours, that is the 3rd straight day with a decrease. Also calls into area coronavirus health lines have decreased by 58% over the last 24 hours, that is the 4th straight day with a decrease.

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

Good news all, StL County has had a 54% decrease in total confirmed cases over the last 24 hours, that is the 3rd straight day with a decrease. Also calls into area coronavirus health lines have decreased by 58% over the last 24 hours, that is the 4th straight day with a decrease.

I've been surprised by how our region has adapted to the change. Metro east took a few days longer but they got serious as well. Some areas didn't. Hopefully Florida, NY, Washington, some deep South states who are still not following guidelines don't spread to us later.

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I think BBF makes some thought provoking points, especially on the issue of abortion.  To many Christians, this is the moral issue of our time. Old Guy, you seem to have a wealth of knowledge on medical related issues. I know there has been a tremendous amount of research in recent years  on fetal development.  We have learned for example that a fetus feels pain as early as 20 weeks. Perhaps you can explain exactly what is experienced by mother and child during an abortion. Now I fully realize that a large number, probably a majority could care less. I do agree with BBF, however, that there is a vast disconnect of the value of human life as seen by some of the reactions on this board. The deaths from this virus will never come close to the slaughter of unborn innocents. Would be nice to see the same level of concern for the most vulnerable in our society...but we know that will never happen. Rather than answering BBF's question...it is much easier to just bash him.

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Holy sh!t this has gotten off track

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5 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

Holy sh!t this has gotten off track

Lol...it is the holy season but not sure that qualifies

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47 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Regardless of your personal feelings toward OG, he is THE medical expert on this board regarding pandemics.

BRoy is one of THE experts on mortgages and things banking.

When the going gets tough, it is always good to listen to a vetted expert and use their insight to set your sails.

Hmmm, and all along I thought you were the expert.... 

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38 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

Good news all, StL County has had a 54% decrease in total confirmed cases over the last 24 hours, that is the 3rd straight day with a decrease. Also calls into area coronavirus health lines have decreased by 58% over the last 24 hours, that is the 4th straight day with a decrease.

STOP WITH ANY POSITIVE NEWS! DO YOU NOT REALIZE YOU COULD BE SPREADING FALSE HOPE LIKE THE EVIL ORANGE MAN?? 

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On 3/27/2020 at 1:13 PM, Sheltiedave said:

This isn’t politics, this is recognizing that private industry and local hospitals cannot cope with this fight. We need the federal government to step up and hit a home run. We need the resources brought to bear, and that means millions of masks, tyvek, safety glasses, ventilators, etc.

We need doctors, nurses, and techs to be given their diplomas ASAP, and thrown into the fight.

There is a reason we have the NIH, CDC and numerous other entities that get billions of dollars. We need all of that federal assistance at the frontlines, identifying effective treatments, getting a dialed in vaccine, and killing profiteering.

Don’t throw out one side of the equation and then trot out the “we can’t talk about politics” , because it is the other side of the solution. If we want to have a season next year.

The virus has not mutated. And it is doing quite well in Australia and Malaysia, in the dead of summer. This is not a short term fix.

I hear you and agree. My post was sarcasm, not intended to make fun of you. I was poking fun at MBMs who freak out about others bringing up "politics" when someone states simple facts as you did. 

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22 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

STOP WITH ANY POSITIVE NEWS! DO YOU NOT REALIZE YOU COULD BE SPREADING FALSE HOPE LIKE THE EVIL ORANGE MAN?? 

You are the only person who continues to reference the president as the evil orange man. You are screaming into the wind

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1 hour ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Three requests for you: (1) explain how Obama was a “failed, weak President”; (2) read Roe v. Wade; and (3) understand this is not political.

There was a country where the law of the land said it was ok to kill Jews. That was bad law roe v wade is bad law

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38 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

STOP WITH ANY POSITIVE NEWS! DO YOU NOT REALIZE YOU COULD BE SPREADING FALSE HOPE LIKE THE EVIL ORANGE MAN?? 

Man, you are really something. 

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42 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

You are the only person who continues to reference the president as the evil orange man. You are screaming into the wind

Oh, I’m sorry, please reference their posts of praise, so I can retract my statement... 

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3 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

Oh, I’m sorry, please reference their posts of praise, so I can retract my statement... 

Please reference who else has called the President the Evil Orange Man.

BBF: Be Nice. Don't Be Threatening. 

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