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The Wiz

The Bills over UMass by 13

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Just now, Cowboy said:

-no doubt, just let your imagination go for a moment as to what this team would be if we made shots just at an average clip

14-1, for starters.

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40 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Brian and Big Bill are both correct.  Most stat reporting takes the TO and determines   whether  any points were scored. In my system if figures lost and gained opportunity. On average, the losing team gives up 3/4 of a point on each TO and the stealing team gains about 1 1/4 pts ....thus 2pts per TO....lost and gained opportunity....which is why on many, many threads I harp on TOs. Usually when you have more than 18 TOs in a game or on the losing end of a 6 TO differential you lose the game. It is like in baseball ...when you give up 10 walks you lose the game....not always but usually. There was a game earlier this year where we had around 20 TOs but it didn't matter because the losing team had 24....but that is the exception. 

Also the 2 pts can vary ...if you get 2 good offensive teams...say Gonz & Tenn...who average 53 and 51% per game and shoot over 75% from the line the TO differential becomes about 2,7.  But for most teams it is around 2 pts   Last night UMass TO scoring (because of good Off stats)  was about 2.1  and we were around 1.9...so the average was pretty close to 2pts. There are other factors that feed the stat too but in the end ....2 pts /TO is pretty close.

it also explains how some turnovers are not as bad as others. a turnover resulting from a travel violation is not as bad as being stripped of the ball,  as the later example is more likely to result in the opposition scoring. it seems to be that Isabel seems to have more "bad" turnovers than "good" ones.

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1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-no doubt, just let your imagination go for a moment as to what this team would be if we made shots just at an average clip

Let's break this down.....

Here is what an average plain vanilla middle of the pack C rated team shoots in D1  om 1/10/19.....44.2 / 34/ 69.7 and here is what the Bills shoot.....41.6/ 30.7/ 59.2.....F+/ D-/ F-

If we shot the same as that C rated team ...it would mean an average of 6 pts more per game....that is huge.  Remember , I am not talking about shooting good....just average.

Here is what it looks like in real life

Pitt...We score an extra 5 pts ...we win by 3

SIU...we score an extra 22 pts...we win by 17

Hou....we score an extra 13 pts....we win by 8

Fla St...we score an extra 20 ....we lose by 2 ...and if we are down by 2 at the end of the game we have a great chance to win in the final minute.

So Pistol is correct ...we are 14-1

Just some back up numbers on how we could have reached 14-1.

The good news is that it looks like we are bringing in enough fire power next year to reach C rated or better.

 

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One positive with regard to shooting: We may have an F+/D-/F- (.416/.307/.592) slashline on the season, but our opponents have been even worse from the field: .406/.299/.713 (@The WizI'm going to guess that's F/F/B-) . So as poor a shooting team as we are, we're at least disrupting opponents into having their worst shooting nights against us.

It's not true from the FT line; if the national average is .697 and they're hitting .713 against us, we've been unlucky there.

Bottom line: If SLU is on the floor, no one's making shots.

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48 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Let's break this down.....

Here is what an average plain vanilla middle of the pack C rated team shoots in D1  om 1/10/19.....44.2 / 34/ 69.7 and here is what the Bills shoot.....41.6/ 30.7/ 59.2.....F+/ D-/ F-

If we shot the same as that C rated team ...it would mean an average of 6 pts more per game....that is huge.  Remember , I am not talking about shooting good....just average.

Here is what it looks like in real life

Pitt...We score an extra 5 pts ...we win by 3

SIU...we score an extra 22 pts...we win by 17

Hou....we score an extra 13 pts....we win by 8

Fla St...we score an extra 20 ....we lose by 2 ...and if we are down by 2 at the end of the game we have a great chance to win in the final minute.

So Pistol is correct ...we are 14-1

Just some back up numbers on how we could have reached 14-1.

The good news is that it looks like we are bringing in enough fire power next year to reach C rated or better.

 

This is a nice breakdown.  That said, if we are easily scoring and shooting C percentages....our "want" factor on D would go down.  Not that is should...but it would.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Pistol said:

One positive with regard to shooting: We may have an F+/D-/F- (.416/.307/.592) slashline on the season, but our opponents have been even worse from the field: .406/.299/.713 (@The WizI'm going to guess that's F/F/B-) . So as poor a shooting team as we are, we're at least disrupting opponents into having their worst shooting nights against us.

It's not true from the FT line; if the national average is .697 and they're hitting .713 against us, we've been unlucky there.

Bottom line: If SLU is on the floor, no one's making shots.

Good point on opp shooting and very close on the slash....opp slash F / F+ / B-....

The FT comment  is an interesting one ...there is set of stats that are called FT defense. I have never included it  because,  like you,  I consider it a random or luck factor. But the argument goes that you can control FT shooting % by choosing who you foul. For instance , last night night Pipkins was by far their best FT shooter at 86%.....a "good defensive" FT shooting team would have tried not to foul him. Or going even further....You see your upcoming opponent is a great foul shooting team and you try to ease up on fouling them.  Currently , the Bills are a D team in "allowing" FT to be made. Meanwhile , a team like VCU is B rated  in "defending" against FTs.  Again , I am not saying I agree with this. There are stat nerds who say this needs to be included as the difference can be as much as a 10% swing( a couple of points/gm).  While others argue it is the luck of the draw...ie  you have been playing weak FT shooting teams and therefore  you numbers are better.  If there is interest , I could include it on existing spread thread report cards as opposed to just putting a dash there.

An interesting side note....The Bills are 25th in the nation in FTA.  It could be because of our aggressive offensive style of play or because teams are playing defensive FT bball against us ...realizing we struggle at the line.

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3 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

  It could be because of

1. our aggressive offensive style of play

or

2. because teams are playing defensive FT bball against us ...realizing we struggle at the line.

i vote for #2 as we are not aggressive offensively.  we weave around out by the halfline most of the game.

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10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i vote for #2 as we are not aggressive offensively.  we weave around out by the halfline most of the game.

I’m on record saying Ford is a bad offensive coach but I’m curious if people think his system currently sucks (IE setting screens at half court for 20 seconds) because he’s trying to limit possessions due to offensive inability or .... he’s just not good at it. 

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42 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I’m on record saying Ford is a bad offensive coach but I’m curious if people think his system currently sucks (IE setting screens at half court for 20 seconds) because he’s trying to limit possessions due to offensive inability or .... he’s just not good at it. 

It kind of makes me wonder if we’ll see a bit of a shake-up on the bench after the season. We really need a guy with some expertise on offense sitting next to Ford. We also haven’t seen a ton of development from players besides Bess, but that seems to be more due to his own effort. Macon got a promotion last year and seems pretty active in games. Tate is obviously more of a recruiter than anything. Bailey is a bit lower key and was supposed to be the guard coach. Without knowing more than that, Bailey seems like the most replaceable. He’s a nice guy though, so I don’t really want to see him fired. Just wondering what has to happen to get our offense out of the toilet. 

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The weave is one of our best defensive ploys. It eats time, and minimizes the total number of possessions.

When our opponents carry a better average point per possession than we do, the only way we can stay close is by minimizing their possessions, winning the turnover margin, winning the rebound battle, and playing brutal body-up defense.

There will be few games we win by playing beautiful offensive basketball this season, so hopefully Roy can learn to like wasting 15 seconds every offensive possession in close games. Lord knows we aren’t going to find consistent shooters in the next 18 or so games.

and Zink, Ford was a great point guard. He knows offenses like no one’s business. A college offense requires two good shooters, a penetrating point guard with a handle, and a big man who can receive and pass out of the post, and score on the blocks. We don’t have these elements yet jelled.

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7 minutes ago, Zink said:

It kind of makes me wonder if we’ll see a bit of a shake-up on the bench after the season. We really need a guy with some expertise on offense sitting next to Ford. We also haven’t seen a ton of development from players besides Bess, but that seems to be more due to his own effort. Macon got a promotion last year and seems pretty active in games. Tate is obviously more of a recruiter than anything. Bailey is a bit lower key and was supposed to be the guard coach. Without knowing more than that, Bailey seems like the most replaceable. He’s a nice guy though, so I don’t really want to see him fired. Just wondering what has to happen to get our offense out of the toilet. 

I thought our offense the last couple of games has been better (not great, but better).  At times, our guys have really moved the ball quite well, especially when we are playing with a faster pace (less thinking and more doing?).  The problem, of course, is we can't hit the ocean from the beach. 

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3 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

The weave is one of our best defensive ploys. It eats time, and minimizes the total number of possessions.

When our opponents carry a better average point per possession than we do, the only way we can stay close is by minimizing their possessions, winning the turnover margin, winning the rebound battle, and playing brutal body-up defense.

There will be few games we win by playing beautiful offensive basketball this season, so hopefully Roy can learn to like wasting 15 seconds every offensive possession in close games. Lord knows we aren’t going to find consistent shooters in the next 18 or so games.

Im more about doing something akin to "havoc" and turning bess, goodwin, thatch, isabell loose on D and creating fast breaks for layups and dunks.   

Imo that approach will minimize our shooting shortfalls more than wasting 25 seconds each possession then forcing a shot of some sort 

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12 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

I thought our offense the last couple of games has been better (not great, but better).  At times, our guys have really moved the ball quite well, especially when we are playing with a faster pace (less thinking and more doing?).  The problem, of course, is we can't hit the ocean from the beach. 

That’s fair, we do seem to have had more open looks, just still aren’t converting. Part of that might have something to do with the fact that UMass and App State are absolutely horrible on defense, though. 

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2 hours ago, Pistol said:

 

Bottom line: If SLU is on the floor, no one's making shots.

Some call it good defense, some call it contagious 

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1 hour ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I’m on record saying Ford is a bad offensive coach but I’m curious if people think his system currently sucks (IE setting screens at half court for 20 seconds) because he’s trying to limit possessions due to offensive inability or .... he’s just not good at it. 

Coach Ford's major flaw is roster construction.  His best UMass teams excelled on offense when he had really good shooters.  Same at Oklahoma State.  The problem is he's gotten away from recruiting good shooters as he's moved up in competition level in favor of better athletes.  Now that he's back in the A10 it's time to get back to a better mix of proven shooters and athletes .  I think the 2018 class is the right mix.  If the player happens to be both, like Javonte Perkins, even better.

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2 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Coach Ford's major flaw is roster construction.  His best UMass teams excelled on offense when he had really good shooters.  Same at Oklahoma State.  The problem is he's gotten away from recruiting good shooters as he's moved up in competition level in favor of better athletes.  Now that he's back in the A10 it's time to get back to a better mix of proven shooters and ahletes .  I think the 2018 class is the right mix.  If the player happens to be both, like Javonte Perkins, even better.

Welmer, Wiley, TI, and Hankton were all supposed to be capable shooters this year. The roster he put together this year was actually really good. On paper it covered all situations. I don't think anyone going in thought we had any glaring holes before all the injuries, dismissals and transfers.

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26 minutes ago, Cincybill said:

Welmer, Wiley, TI, and Hankton were all supposed to be capable shooters this year. The roster he put together this year was actually really good. On paper it covered all situations. I don't think anyone going in thought we had any glaring holes before all the injuries, dismissals and transfers.

Wiley has been injured more often than not during his college career.  That was a gamble that Coach was willing to take for one year.  I understand why Coach took the risk but there was always a distinct likelihood we were going to lose on this one.  Welmer was in the same boat.  

Isabell has never been a proven outside shooter in college.  Shooting 34% at Drexel against weak competition is the best he's ever done.  I think the hope here was that with Goodwin and Bess drawing most of the defensive attention, Isabell would get easier shots.  Instead defenses are packing it in daring us to shoot.

Hankton was not being counted on by anybody to be one of our top 5 scorers.  I think he'll get going at some point but he's not going to get enough shots for it to make much difference.

I commend Coach for doing his best to shore up our shooting weaknesses after Situation 2 depleted our roster.  We needed some good luck in the health department.  We haven't had any. 

 

 

 

 

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This is beating a dead horse but if Jalen Johnson would have stayed a lot of our problems would have been solved. 

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Let's break this down.....

Here is what an average plain vanilla middle of the pack C rated team shoots in D1  om 1/10/19.....44.2 / 34/ 69.7 and here is what the Bills shoot.....41.6/ 30.7/ 59.2.....F+/ D-/ F-

If we shot the same as that C rated team ...it would mean an average of 6 pts more per game....that is huge.  Remember , I am not talking about shooting good....just average.

Here is what it looks like in real life

Pitt...We score an extra 5 pts ...we win by 3

SIU...we score an extra 22 pts...we win by 17

Hou....we score an extra 13 pts....we win by 8

Fla St...we score an extra 20 ....we lose by 2 ...and if we are down by 2 at the end of the game we have a great chance to win in the final minute.

So Pistol is correct ...we are 14-1

Just some back up numbers on how we could have reached 14-1.

The good news is that it looks like we are bringing in enough fire power next year to reach C rated or better.

 

-I hope I'm approaching middle age, I'm tired of as a Billiken fan waiting for next season

-It Is Very Hard Work Being a Billiken Fan

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20 minutes ago, willie said:

This is beating a dead horse but if Jalen Johnson would have stayed a lot of our problems would have been solved. 

100% agree.  But there have been long arguments on this board with one or two MBM's who would still disagree. 

Who does't need a 40% three point shooter.

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47 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Wiley has been injured more often than not during his college career.  That was a gamble that Coach was willing to take for one year.  I understand why Coach took the risk but there was always a distinct likelihood we were going to lose on this one.  Welmer was in the same boat.  

Isabell has never been a proven outside shooter in college.  Shooting 34% at Drexel against weak competition is the best he's ever done.  I think the hope here was that with Goodwin and Bess drawing most of the defensive attention, Isabell would get easier shots.  Instead defenses are packing it in daring us to shoot.

Hankton was not being counted on by anybody to be one of our top 5 scorers.  I think he'll get going at some point but he's not going to get enough shots for it to make much difference.

I commend Coach for doing his best to shore up our shooting weaknesses after Situation 2 depleted our roster.  We needed some good luck in the health department.  We haven't had any. 

 

 

 

 

Wiley played 35, 20 and 28 his three years at Maryland. He averaged 22 minutes a game last year. He wasn't really a risk.

Welmer was the one red flag when it came to injuries.

Isabell had to be a volume shooter at Drexel and was the focus of every team that played him. It would have been logical for Ford or anyone to assume he would get much better looks here when he didn't have to be the whole team.

I like the roster moves he made this off-season, but like you said he's just had awful luck with the results. 

 

 

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we were supposed to be enjoying second season of player TF said best pure shooter he's recruited in AH.

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5 minutes ago, Cincybill said:

Wiley played 35, 20 and 28 his three years at Maryland. He averaged 22 minutes a game last year. He wasn't really a risk.

Wiley also sat out an entire season (2015-2016) with a medical redshirt. The following season, he missed 13 games and played very limited minutes when he suited up. Then he missed 4 games last year.

He was a pretty significant injury risk, no question.

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10 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Wiley also sat out an entire season (2015-2016) with a medical redshirt. The following season, he missed 13 games and played very limited minutes when he suited up. Then he missed 4 games last year.

He was a pretty significant injury risk, no question.

After his injury and spending the following year getting back to basketball shape, he was relatively healthy last year outside of the concussion. I guess I was just saying nobody was concerned that his knee injury from over two years ago was lingering or anything resembling a risk.

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I think the issue for him is his shorts are too small and tight.  They are prolly causing circulation problems with the boys and throwing off his equilibrium, therefore affecting his shot.

 

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