Ill St over The Bills by 1

[The Wiz]

 

Game preview...We continue to hang at C+.  If you read my Season Forecast , you know the next 3 games are important.  We need to get our grade up before conference if we expect to compete.  This game will be a good test to see if we are up to the challenge. ISU comes in with a grade of C...we have a slight edge on them which is wiped out by the ISU home court advantage. Essentially this game is pretty much a toss up. The Redbirds are not only the best shooting team we will face this year but one of the best in the nation. Well, if they are so good why do they only have a C. Their defense isn't that good...slightly worse than ours.

Let's look at it a different way...What happens if 2 offensive juggernauts go at each other and nobody plays D.  You have the ISU vs Belmont game where Belmont wins in OT 99-97 because they are the last team standing. The computer thinks this is a highly likely scenario ...a close high scoring game going down to the wire.  But lets look at another ISU game with our A-10 friend GW. They tried something different . They tried playing defense. The result was a 72-64 GW win. They not only held them way under their scoring average but slashed the Redbird 3P% to 22% nearly half their normal average. Mind you, GW has the same C+ grade we do. The computer has a strategy idea ...let's play offense and defense. If GW can beat them , so can we.

Let's check the Card...

Report Card.... 

Report Card change....2 up...4 dn...3 unchanged = -2

UP.....OFF...Reb.........DEF...PPG

Dn....OFF...PPG...3P%..DEF...FG%...3P%

 

................SLU..................ISU.....................SLU......................ISU

...........................OFF...................................................DEF..........

PPG...........B-....................B...........................C-.......................C-

FG%..........B....................A-............................C+......................C-

3P%...........C+.................A+...14th ITN...........D.........................D

FT%.........  F+..................A+..10th ITN.......................................

Reb...........B.....................D..............................D.........................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

PPG...Jimerson ....45th...dn

.........Swope.........92nd....dn

3PM......Jimerson...21st...up

FT%...Jimerson...78th 

Reb,,,,,Anya...........8th...dn

FG%....Thames.....92nd...dn

Asst...Swope...44th...up

Dou-Dou....Anya....86th...dn

ISU...

FG%...Walker...81st

FT%...Pence...54th

...........Kinziger...97th

 

Injuries....

SLU....Warlick....12/8...Out indefinitely ....undisclosed injury...last report on him till status changes

           Hughes...12/8...Ques.....back

           Johnson...12/8...Ques...illness

ISU...No injuries to report

 

Keys to the game....Defense ...we have to figure a way to slow down their offense. Walker, Kinziger and Pence are their main shooters but they have others that can put the ball in the hoop.  As for FTs, we have to limit their FTA. This will not be about suppressing their good guy...we will have to play defense against their whole team...No open shots

WWN2D2W.... Target slash...49/39/79...Out reb them by 4...match them in TOs...they don't turn the ball over much...so we can't give them any freebies....Hold them to 10 FTAs...Hold them to 33% from the arc.

Bottom line....Let's make some noise in Illinoise  and beat the Redbirds.

[VeniceMenace]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

 

Game preview...We continue to hang at C+.  If you read my Season Forecast , you know the next 3 games are important.  We need to get our grade up before conference if we expect to compete.  This game will be a good test to see if we are up to the challenge. ISU comes in with a grade of C...we have a slight edge on them which is wiped out by the ISU home court advantage. Essentially this game is pretty much a toss up. The Redbirds are not only the best shooting team we will face this year but one of the best in the nation. Well, if they are so good why do they only have a C. Their defense isn't that good...slightly worse than ours.

Let's look at it a different way...What happens if 2 offensive juggernauts go at each other and nobody plays D.  You have the ISU vs Belmont game where Belmont wins in OT 99-97 because they are the last team standing. The computer thinks this is a highly likely scenario ...a close high scoring game going down to the wire.  But lets look at another ISU game with our A-10 friend GW. They tried something different . They tried playing defense. The result was a 72-64 GW win. They not only held them way under their scoring average but slashed the Redbird 3P% to 22% nearly half their normal average. Mind you, GW has the same C+ grade we do. The computer has a strategy idea ...let's play offense and defense. If GW can beat them , so can we.

Let's check the Card...

Report Card.... 

Report Card change....2 up...4 dn...3 unchanged = -2

UP.....OFF...Reb.........DEF...PPG

Dn....OFF...PPG...3P%..DEF...FG%...3P%

 

................SLU..................ISU.....................SLU......................ISU

...........................OFF...................................................DEF..........

PPG...........B-....................B...........................C-.......................C-

FG%..........B....................A-............................C+......................C-

3P%...........C+.................A+...14th ITN...........D.........................D

FT%.........  F+..................A+..10th ITN.......................................

Reb...........B.....................D..............................D.........................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

PPG...Jimerson ....45th...dn

.........Swope.........92nd....dn

3PM......Jimerson...21st...up

FT%...Jimerson...78th 

Reb,,,,,Anya...........8th...dn

FG%....Thames.....92nd...dn

Asst...Swope...44th...up

Dou-Dou....Anya....86th...dn

ISU...

FG%...Walker...81st

FT%...Pence...54th

...........Kinziger...97th

 

Injuries....

SLU....Warlick....12/8...Out indefinitely ....undisclosed injury...last report on him till status changes

           Hughes...12/8...Ques.....back

           Johnson...12/8...Ques...illness

ISU...No injuries to report

 

Keys to the game....Defense ...we have to figure a way to slow down their offense. Walker, Kinziger and Pence are their main shooters but they have others that can put the ball in the hoop.  As for FTs, we have to limit their FTA. This will not be about suppressing their good guy...we will have to play defense against their whole team...No open shots

WWN2D2W.... Target slash...49/39/79...Out reb them by 4...match them in TOs...they don't turn the ball over much...so we can't give them any freebies....Hold them to 10 FTAs...Hold them to 33% from the arc.

Bottom line....Let's make some noise in Illinoise  and beat the Redbirds.

AJ Casey not listed under SLU injuries...is he due back or was that omission a mistake?

[wgstl]

29 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

AJ Casey not listed under SLU injuries...is he due back or was that omission a mistake?

Coach said last night "he's out for the foreseeable future."

[billiken_roy]

has it ever been said what exactly is wrong?

 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said:

AJ Casey not listed under SLU injuries...is he due back or was that omission a mistake?

 

13 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

has it ever been said what exactly is wrong?

 

What I show are the reportable injuries...this falls into the category of  not reportable.  I have heard unofficially he has an ankle problem.

[willie]

17 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

has it ever been said what exactly is wrong?

 

Ankle.

[Old guy]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

 

What I show are the reportable injuries...this falls into the category of  not reportable.  I have heard unofficially he has an ankle problem.

Interesting concept, reportable and non reportable injuries. Wonder what is the difference between both kinds. Anyone knows? What makes an ankle injury non reportable?

[VeniceMenace]

46 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

has it ever been said what exactly is wrong?

 

Based on precedent the NCAA has not cleared Casey to play because he's still awaiting his visa to relocate from China.

[Old guy]

5 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Based on precedent the NCAA has not cleared Casey to play because he's still awaiting his visa to relocate from China.

Thank you, that does make sense.

[cgeldmacher]

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Interesting concept, reportable and non reportable injuries. Wonder what is the difference between both kinds. Anyone knows? What makes an ankle injury non reportable?

self inflicted maybe

[HoosierPal]

4 hours ago, Old guy said:

Interesting concept, reportable and non reportable injuries. Wonder what is the difference between both kinds. Anyone knows? What makes an ankle injury non reportable?

Don't get too deep in the weeds on this.  Today, the NCAA "minor" injury reporting requirement is not mandatory, but voluntary. Catastrophic injuries such as death, permanent disability or severe injuries are required to be reported.  Severe injuries are, well, severe such as cardiac arrest, spinal injuries, etc.  The NCAA outsources the injury collection to a third party.

Several football conferences, such as the SEC and Big Ten now make it mandatory that all injuries be reported, similar to what is required in the NFL.  This is due primarily, if not totally, to betting on games.  Now does the A10 require basketball injuries to be reported or not, I don't know but I doubt it?  If they do, perhaps it would be for conference games.

How current SLU injury information is input into the system, again I don't know, but it would be someone inside the athletic department.  And apparently it isn't that big a deal to go public with this information. 

There are numerous injury reporting sites.  I found two today thru a simple google search.  One listed Dotzler out for the season and the second didn't list him at all.  Warlick, Hughes and Johnson were on both. 

According to Schertz last night on KTRS, Casey is out for "the foreseeable future".  That is what is important, not whether it is reportable or not.

Additionally Schertz said we are playing Loyola Marymount away next season.  Six or seven games already scheduled for next year already.

[longtimelistenerfirsttimec]

31 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

last year the last two years of Crews 

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

The Wiz's computer program's predictions are extraordinary in terms of their wealth of information and general accuracy of the predictions. That said, an advantage of 2 point for either team means ONE thing, either one of the teams can win this game. Neither of the teams has a huge advantage on the other one. So, enjoy the game and pray that God rains favor upon the Bills. Go Bills!

[Bay Area Billiken]

Matchup Predictor per ESPN Analytics:  ISU 60.6%, SLU 39.4%.

[Lord Elrond]

3 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

Last year the prediction was SIU-C over us by 4 pts, if you recall they destroyed us by 39 pts, 101-62. 

So last year we were projected to lose a close game to a team about like Illinois State, and got clobbered. Bad times were not that long ago, hopefully we can get better. I have a LOT more faith in our current coach than I do the previous one.

[ACE]

3 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

Who has suggested that? Perhaps a troll or two posing as fan. but no one is suggesting this.

[WVBilliken]

4 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I know in another thread, The Wiz suggested that there are people that want Schertz out.  I do not wants Schertz out.  I don't recall anyone suggesting that Schertz should be fired.  He deserves time to build something here.  However, having said that, if The Wiz's computer is suggesting that we should lose to Illinois frickin State, even if it is on the road, this is a low point for the program.  Can anyone think of a time in the last 30 years that we would be projected to lose to a team like Illinois State.

Yes, this is new territory bad.  Yes, Schertz deserves time to do his thing.  Both can be true.

You gotta be an idiot or a just someone who just wants to antagonize Billiken fans to say fire Schertz.  Schertz is a winner and can identify talent like Majerus did .... love the hire for now and the long-term.

[billiken_roy]

5 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:

You gotta be an idiot or a just someone who just wants to antagonize Billiken fans to say fire Schertz.  Schertz is a winner and can identify talent like Majerus did .... love the hire for now and the long-term.

i agree with you but all i read on this board is that this roster has no talent.   

[willie]

36 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i agree with you but all i read on this board is that this roster has no talent.   

I don’t agree with this assessment. If anything I believe the board has overvalued our talent. For what it’s worth I think our talent level is pretty good but lacks key pieces. A true point and a rim protector. 

[billiken_roy]

22 minutes ago, willie said:

I don’t agree with this assessment. If anything I believe the board has overvalued our talent. For what it’s worth I think our talent level is pretty good but lacks key pieces. A true point and a rim protector. 

initially i agree.   i was one of the overvaluers.  but i dont think our talent is horrible.   i see all the time posters saying we got nil past 5 or 6 players.   and schertz doesnt help himself here with his 6 or 7 player rotation.   

[WVBilliken]

15 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

initially i agree.   i was one of the overvaluers.  but i dont think our talent is horrible.   i see all the time posters saying we got nil past 5 or 6 players.   and schertz doesnt help himself here with his 6 or 7 player rotation.   

He only has like 7 healthy players right now!@#!

[shempie]

1 hour ago, willie said:

I don’t agree with this assessment. If anything I believe the board has overvalued our talent. For what it’s worth I think our talent level is pretty good but lacks key pieces. A true point and a rim protector. 

So Dotzler and Casey. 

[cgeldmacher]

2 hours ago, ACE said:

Who has suggested that? Perhaps a troll or two posing as fan. but no one is suggesting this.

This was a quote from The Wiz in his midseason post "Strange but impressive numbers.... There are those on this Board who are ready to move on from Schertz."

Again, I agree that Schertz gets at least a few seasons.  However, any criticism of Schertz now gets treated as if you want him fired.  I don't want that.  Just pointing out that there is a bit of shock associated with seeing that The Wiz's computer says we're supposed to lose to Illinois State.

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, willie said:

I don’t agree with this assessment. If anything I believe the board has overvalued our talent. For what it’s worth I think our talent level is pretty good but lacks key pieces. A true point and a rim protector. 

Depth is the biggest issue(outside of team chemistry). Our starters combined ratings is 2nd in the conference, just behind Dayton. You can see a massive drop off after the 5th starter

Hopefully Amari develops fast, and Kobe breaks out of his shell a little.