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A10 Tourney Rumblings - Major Changes Announced


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30 minutes ago, wgstl said:

You’re right, nvm. But how do you go about a double bye with 13 teams?

I'm guessing not more than 12 show.  Fordham is out until at least Feb 28, and they can prolong their pause another 2 or 3 days easy.  UMass campus may never reopen until next fall.  And you know another team will come up + between now and March 3.  I don't think the A10 has had a single week when all teams were playing this conference season.

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-from the competition angle, we're going to play a semi-final game on Saturday, March 6, then do something for 8 days until the conf championship game on Sunday, March 14 and then have NCAA first round on either the 19th or 20th, one game in two weeks leading to the NCAA tourney, this is the best the conf has?

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My interpretation is the the A-10 is going out of its way to ensure SLU gets in the tournament. This schedule and tournament design is favorable to SLU. It also creates favorable SOS to get 3 (or maybe even 4) teams in the tournament from the A10.

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2 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

It is interesting that they didn't describe how the two will be melded.  The 60% break is 10.8 games and those are by winning %. We will be NET.  How do you insert a NET ranking into a winning % table.  If VCU has a better winning % than us, but our NET is better, who wins that coin flip?

It's a shame we are not eligible for the League title now.  So the At Large bid surely goes to the tourney winner.  That wasn't mentioned in the article.

It's not a coin flip. The press release said the NET ranking will be considered relative to all A-10 teams. In other words, if a team like SLU (falling into the NET category) has the best NET ranking in the conference, it will be the #1 seed.

Edit: Based upon projections on Twitter, it looks like we'll meet the 60% threshold, so the NET angle might not matter for our seed.

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What I think should be done is to standardize the medical rules for Covid that will be used for all tournaments. As long as different teams are allowed to have different medial rules for Covid, things are bound to become exceedingly difficult to deal with. One thing is absolutely certain, any team that gets quarantined during any tournament will be out of the fray.

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Based on all my review of the schedule it seems that we will play more than 60% median of the games. I think it would take many more cancellations or us not playing all 3 of our games to be seeded based on NET as opposed to winning percentage. 

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7 hours ago, NH said:

Based on all my review of the schedule it seems that we will play more than 60% median of the games. I think it would take many more cancellations or us not playing all 3 of our games to be seeded based on NET as opposed to winning percentage. 

Agree.  I'm guessing the median will be 14. That puts us in the winning% group and also eligible for the League Regular Season Title.

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My head hurts.  In the words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."  If we do that, we finish 7 and 2, meet all the criteria and get ther #1 seed.  Although I am not sure I am right on these points of if the seed really matters.  

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1 minute ago, Taj79 said:

My head hurts.  In the words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."  If we do that, we finish 7 and 2, meet all the criteria and get ther #1 seed.  Although I am not sure I am right on these points of if the seed really matters.  

In my opinion, seed only matters if you go from 4 to 5 and have to play an extra game. Anything else should be fine.

Also, the A-10 tourney won't really matter for us getting in the NCAA tourney if we go 3-0 down the stretch. Go 2-1 and I'd like to win one game in the A-10 tourney. Go 1-2 and we need to win the whole thing.

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26 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

My head hurts.  In the words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."  If we do that, we finish 7 and 2, meet all the criteria and get ther #1 seed.  Although I am not sure I am right on these points of if the seed really matters.  

I think @HoosierPal pointed this out already, but pending additional rescheduled games we do not control out own destiny by winning out.  If we win out and finish 7-2 our winning % would be 77.78%.  If VCU wins all of their games except against us they'd be 11-3 or a 78.57% winning %.  This is a good reason to try to add another game before the A10 tournament.  Even if both teams add a 4th game and win it, then both are at 80% winning % and SLU get the tie-breaker having beaten VCU head-to-head.

I don't think getting the #1 overall seed in the A-10 tournament is particularly important in terms of winning the thing or our NCAA hopes.  As @kshoe said, only real important thing would be moving up from 5 to 4 to secure the double-bye. 

That being said, I'd very much like to add that A10 regular season title banner and I think wining it was a goal of the team.  Further, I'd imagine they need to work on scheduling that 4th game now and if we go 2-1 in the other games an extra win could very well be the difference between a 4th and 5th place finish.  If I'm making the scheduling decision, I absolutely try to add the 4th game against a relatively weak A10 opponent.  Just moving the previously scheduled game vs Mason up a couple of days makes a ton of sense.

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Here is what it looks like if we win out ...plus projections for the remaining top 5

The Bills.....7-2......778...........8-2.....800*

UMass.. .....7-2......778...........7-3......700*

St. B ...........10-3.....769

VCU..............10-4.....714

Dav................7-4......535

Rich..............6-4.......600

Some of these games are very close...for example....Right now VCU  and The Bills are even...this further assumes that The Bills beat Dayton....Let's just win them one at a time....the rest of the way.

*....Addition of game between UMass and SLU on Feb 28

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Let's put a theoretical scenario out there:

SLU and VCU come out of the Richmond tourney and are scheduled to play in the championship game. Both are viewed as locks for the NCAA tourney.

Could the A-10 schedule a game between St. Bonaventure and Richmond to give those two teams another shot at Quad 1 or 2 wins (the visiting team would see that as a Quad 1 win)? If St. Bonaventure is on the bubble, why not have them stay in Richmond and play another game on Tuesday to get a meaningful win. If St. Bonaventure replaced either SLU or VCU n the final 2, then maybe VCU or SLU play that game.

I'm not saying any of that is likely, but seems like the door would be open to offer another chance at a good win for any teams on the bubble in need of it if they aren't in the Championship game.

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10 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Let's put a theoretical scenario out there:

SLU and VCU come out of the Richmond tourney and are scheduled to play in the championship game. Both are viewed as locks for the NCAA tourney.

Could the A-10 schedule a game between St. Bonaventure and Richmond to give those two teams another shot at Quad 1 or 2 wins (the visiting team would see that as a Quad 1 win)? If St. Bonaventure is on the bubble, why not have them stay in Richmond and play another game on Tuesday to get a meaningful win. If St. Bonaventure replaced either SLU or VCU n the final 2, then maybe VCU or SLU play that game.

I'm not saying any of that is likely, but seems like the door would be open to offer another chance at a good win for any teams on the bubble in need of it if they aren't in the Championship game.

Similarly, could those teams play each other outside of A-10 play? Effectively a non-conference game between two conference opponents? Could they schedule a bubble team from another conference?

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9 minutes ago, NH said:

Similarly, could those teams play each other outside of A-10 play? Effectively a non-conference game between two conference opponents? Could they schedule a bubble team from another conference?

Great point. Let's say we lose in the A-10 tourney and feel like we are on the wrong side of the bubble. Gotta call Drake right?

Edit: Let's get real crazy on scenarios. Say we lose 2 of the next 3 but advance to the Finals of the A10 tourney against VCU. Probably aren't in if we lose to VCU. Any reason not to schedule Drake for a Wednesday game to build up the resume in case we lose to VCU? I'm sure some would prefer the extra time to prep, but I'd take the resume builder.

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22 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Great point. Let's say we lose in the A-10 tourney and feel like we are on the wrong side of the bubble. Gotta call Drake right?

Edit: Let's get real crazy on scenarios. Say we lose 2 of the next 3 but advance to the Finals of the A10 tourney against VCU. Probably aren't in if we lose to VCU. Any reason not to schedule Drake for a Wednesday game to build up the resume in case we lose to VCU? I'm sure some would prefer the extra time to prep, but I'd take the resume builder.

St. Mary's did something similar a few years back, although I'm failing to remember the year. Hopefully someone can fill in the details.

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30 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Great point. Let's say we lose in the A-10 tourney and feel like we are on the wrong side of the bubble. Gotta call Drake right?

Edit: Let's get real crazy on scenarios. Say we lose 2 of the next 3 but advance to the Finals of the A10 tourney against VCU. Probably aren't in if we lose to VCU. Any reason not to schedule Drake for a Wednesday game to build up the resume in case we lose to VCU? I'm sure some would prefer the extra time to prep, but I'd take the resume builder.

I am fairly certain the A-10 would step in to prevent the second scenario you mention. My assumption is that the teams playing in the championship will be expected to quarantine before the A-10 championship. If not, it kind of defeats the entire purpose of them moving the first 3 rounds up, right?

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35 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Great point. Let's say we lose in the A-10 tourney and feel like we are on the wrong side of the bubble. Gotta call Drake right?

Edit: Let's get real crazy on scenarios. Say we lose 2 of the next 3 but advance to the Finals of the A10 tourney against VCU. Probably aren't in if we lose to VCU. Any reason not to schedule Drake for a Wednesday game to build up the resume in case we lose to VCU? I'm sure some would prefer the extra time to prep, but I'd take the resume builder.

This is crazy, but I doubt if it is 'illegal'.  Drake, or St. Bonnie, might be resume building teams if available.  I'd be interested in hearing the A10 and the NCAA comment on this.  Where is  it written that you cannot schedule anymore games after your conference tourney, particularly if you have a loss and the tourney has this crazy 8 day delay between games.

And when we are in the final game, what would prohibit Ford from scheduling a game in that 8 day window between March 6 and March 14.  It would keep the team fresh.   A Bubble Opponent might jump at the chance.

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