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davidnark

2020-21 Season

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1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

First caveat so I'm not disappointed later - This season isn't happening.  This exercise is futile.

Now in the magical parallel universe where the Billikens aren't the basketball program equivalent of Sisyphus - I think we'll normally play smaller than your minutes breakdown would indicate.  Therefore, I think that you have Bell and Linnsen too high.

I'd go 1 - Goodwin, (gap), 2 - Collins, 3 - French, 4 - Perkins, (gap), 5 - Jimerson, 6 - Jacobs, 7 - Thatch, (gap), 8 - Bell, 9 - Linnsen, 10 - Hargrove (gap), 11 - Strickland, 12 - Lorentson.

We'll still see a lot of lineups with French as the only true big man because those will be our most effective lineups.  Goodwin being excellent on the boards and most A10 teams lacking effective big men to take advantage of small lineups allows us to do this.

Well said, it is true fantasy sports. Why this couldn't happen in the height of the Crews dynasty. CV19 took out the end of a really cool rebuilding/off season in March and looks to sink the most promising team we've had in the shot clock era. Figures, for a Billiken fan.

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8 minutes ago, NH said:

I think it will be really interesting to see whether Strickland or Lorentsson gets any minutes in meaningful games early. We don't really need contributions from either of them, so if one or both of them is getting game time you know it's a sign that they must be really impressing in practice.

I think it will be harder for Lorentsson, through no fault of his own. He’s just gonna be quite a bit behind everybody else. Strickland has been on campus working out for weeks. Linssen got a late start, but already has 2 years of D1 experience and is on campus now. I think Lorentsson is gonna be fun to watch in a Billikens uniform, we just might need to wait a year to see it.

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14 minutes ago, NH said:

I think it will be really interesting to see whether Strickland or Lorentsson gets any minutes in meaningful games early. We don't really need contributions from either of them, so if one or both of them is getting game time you know it's a sign that they must be really impressing in practice.

Really wish we could redshirt one of them 

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5 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Really wish we could redshirt one of them 

Can we not? I’m totally ignorant on redshirt rules.

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17 minutes ago, NH said:

I think it will be really interesting to see whether Strickland or Lorentsson gets any minutes in meaningful games early. We don't really need contributions from either of them, so if one or both of them is getting game time you know it's a sign that they must be really impressing in practice.

The quality of the returnees+Linssen and the prospect of a drastically shortened season are compelling reasons to redshirt both of the freshmen.

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1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

I agree with 13 on the top 5. After that though it's so hard to predict. 

I also believe we will play French as the only big quite a bit also but Goodwin almost has to be on the court in those instances. 

Agreed.  Goodwin is essentially the PF in those lineups where French is the only "traditional" big man.  In any meaningful / close game, Goodwin will be playing almost the entire game regardless, so this is really a non-issue.

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with the graduate transfer rules as they are today, i really think the redshirt rules that are not injury related are not beneficial to the school any longer.    the player earns his degree because of the redshirt year and then uses that year to move on to a situation where they get more spotlight or Playing time.   the player that isnt good enough to improve his situation and get that opportunity is likely a player we would prefer be done at SLU and move on to his post college life.   

 

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4 hours ago, slufan13 said:

Players care who starts and it does matter but overall minutes is still the more important stat. My predictions at most minutes

1. Goodwin - I'd sit him for 2 minutes in each half. 36 mpg is a lot but that's what you get out of your senior leader/4 year starter. The only two things I'll say is that 1) he can be more aggressive/physical because we have the depth if he gets into foul trouble and 2) if he's having a bad game, we have the depth to sit him for longer

2. French - I think he's going to be an All American this season. He probably won't actually be 2nd in minutes because he's still a little foul prone and he'll be on the bench at the end of games if he can't make free throws

3. Perkins - There's a chance that we jump straight into conference play or at least only have minimal non-conference games. Because of that, he can't afford to start slowly again this season. I still think he was our best player in the last 10-12 games last season

4. Collins - Needs to improve his shooting and still get better at defense but he makes the offense so much better

5. Jimerson - He's going to have to play better defense but I actually thought his defense was fine for a freshman who had basically never been asked to play defense before. Ford played him big minutes last year though and Perkins may take some of those, but Jimerson's shooting will keep him on the floor for long stretches

Even though this above 5 players is a small lineup, I think it would be our best lineup and the lineup I want to see play the most minutes

6. Bell - I think Bell is going to be an all conference player as a junior and senior. He will probably start if I had to guess

7. Thatch - Obviously this all depends on if he is healthy. If not, Jacobs is here. It'll also depend on how he responds after basically sitting for 13+ months. I love the idea of him being a total defensive stopper. I don't see him playing in long stretches but he can be a high energy guy in spurts

8. Linnsen - Not sure how much he'll play but I feel like Ford got him for a reason. He brings experience and probably allows us more options for bigger lineups which it kind of seems like Ford is insistent on.

9. Jacobs - I'm torn on him as a player. Good shooter but he release is too slow. Great athlete but not much of a defender. Can handle the ball but not a great assist/TO ratio

10. Hargrove - It pains me to put him this low but I think there are players who just fill better roles at his position. He'll get minutes but they may be inconsistent game to game. His playing time will go up after Perkins/Goodwin graduate

11. Strickland - I'm excited about him, but hard to see him passing any of the older guys especially with a potential abbreviated non-conference slate. Again, he'll play more with future graduations

12. Lorentson - I'm leaving him last for now since we don't even know when/if he'll be here. I'm really excited about him though. I've always been a big believer that you need a big man who can shoot. 

Good takes all around.  The only bone I have to pick is in regards to #10.  I just cannot see how Hargrove sits given how strong he came on last year late in the season.  

He is a rim runner that has worked hard on his defense.  He introduces so many problems for the defense because they always have to worry about the back door lob.  There will be a time when a limited possession game may suit Perkins or Thatch better but if Ford gets his way, I think Hargrove is on the floor for 20-25 mins until his "spark" wears off.  

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2 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

Good takes all around.  The only bone I have to pick is in regards to #10.  I just cannot see how Hargrove sits given how strong he came on last year late in the season.  

He is a rim runner that has worked hard on his defense.  He introduces so many problems for the defense because they always have to worry about the back door lob.  There will be a time when a limited possession game may suit Perkins or Thatch better but if Ford gets his way, I think Hargrove is on the floor for 20-25 mins until his "spark" wears off.  

I also think he is a better shooter than he showed last year. He may never be Jimerson or Perkins, but I think he could end up being a reliable jump shooter.

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So who sits so hargrove plays more?

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5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

So who sits so hargrove plays more?

It will probably be matchup based. He plays more some games, less in others.

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6 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

So who sits so hargrove plays more?

I do not think Perkins and Jimerson should see a lot of minutes together unless we are trying to play catch up.  I think rebounding and defense would suffer too much to play them together in long stretches.  

I also am making the assumption that Thatch will not be the 35+ minute player that we had him slotted for this time a year ago.  That's where I would find the minutes.

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25 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

 I also am making the assumption that Thatch will not be the 35+ minute player that we had him slotted for this time a year ago.  That's where I would find the minutes.

Bingo.  He'll give us some good minutes, but I dont think he'll be ready for more than just a few minutes a game this year. 

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1 hour ago, Reinert310 said:

Can we not? I’m totally ignorant on redshirt rules.

We can, its just a rare thing these days.  Its hard to convince a player its the right thing without them getting upset.  But this would be an ideal time.  I have a hard time seeing THJ getting a lot of PT, so expecting the guy behind him to get very much is hard.  Or the guy behind him.

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28 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

I do not think Perkins and Jimerson should see a lot of minutes together unless we are trying to play catch up.  I think rebounding and defense would suffer too much to play them together in long stretches.  

I also am making the assumption that Thatch will not be the 35+ minute player that we had him slotted for this time a year ago.  That's where I would find the minutes.

Regarding rebounding, I don't think that would be a problem considering we have two exceptional rebounders on the team. A lineup of Yuri, JG, GJ, Perk and HF would have enough rebounding - in fact, I really like that lineup combo - a nice mix of skill and bullyball.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

with the graduate transfer rules as they are today, i really think the redshirt rules that are not injury related are not beneficial to the school any longer.    the player earns his degree because of the redshirt year and then uses that year to move on to a situation where they get more spotlight or Playing time.   the player that isnt good enough to improve his situation and get that opportunity is likely a player we would prefer be done at SLU and move on to his post college life.   

 

By the time our Frosh get there will they really want to leave a team with 2 final 4's and a National Championship? 

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20 minutes ago, ACE said:

Regarding rebounding, I don't think that would be a problem considering we have two exceptional rebounders on the team. A lineup of Yuri, JG, GJ, Perk and HF would have enough rebounding - in fact, I really like that lineup combo - a nice mix of skill and bullyball.

I don't hate it. I would just rather have Hargrove Rim Running on the baseline compared to GJ/Perk running into each other trying to curl off the same screen at the elbow.  

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12 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

By the time our Frosh get there will they really want to leave a team with 2 final 4's and a National Championship? 

i think in today's world, the student athletes all think they are professional worthy and do not want to be sitting on the bench for anyone.   they would rather play for abc university destined for a 500 record than sit on the bench at today's John Wooden UCLA

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55 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i think in today's world, the student athletes all think they are professional worthy and do not want to be sitting on the bench for anyone.   they would rather play for abc university destined for a 500 record than sit on the bench at today's John Wooden UCLA

You might be right, Roy. I increasingly believe the same thing. My hope is coach Ford is honest with these guys about playing time starting out, but I realize you may not win a lot of recruiting battles saying playing time might be scarce your first year. It’s tough.

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I think keeping all of these guys happy and motivated may be Fords biggest challenge  this year. First,  it would be very unusual if we keep all of the players healthy and eligible for a whole season. Second, we have players with such different  strengths.  Ford can adjust his game plan and personnel to exploit each opponents weakness.  We could see players with 29+ minutes one game and 5 the next.

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37 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I think keeping all of these guys happy and motivated may be Fords biggest challenge  this year. First,  it would be very unusual if we keep all of the players healthy and eligible for a whole season. Second, we have players with such different  strengths.  Ford can adjust his game plan and personnel to exploit each opponents weakness.  We could see players with 29+ minutes one game and 5 the next.

I agree with this to some extent. However, I think the underclass men may look at it like next year Has and JGood will be gone, so my time will come in my JR and SR years. As B’roy said, kids today would rather be the man on a .500 team than a player scrambling for minutes on a potential final 4 squad. I agree with this as well. Therefore, you’re right,  Ford’s biggest challenge will be how to keep everyone happy and motivated. 

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42 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I think keeping all of these guys happy and motivated may be Fords biggest challenge  this year. First,  it would be very unusual if we keep all of the players healthy and eligible for a whole season. Second, we have players with such different  strengths.  Ford can adjust his game plan and personnel to exploit each opponents weakness.  We could see players with 29+ minutes one game and 5 the next.

BIG IF HERE. If they play with Covid you may need a full roster. Players A B And C test positive and are required to isolate for 2 weeks. If the infection hasn’t spread to everyone games could continue. I believe baseball wants to try this model with their taxi squad. I believe this type of situation would be more likely if there was a vaccine. 

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14 minutes ago, slu72 said:

I agree with this to some extent. However, I think the underclass men may look at it like next year Has and JGood will be gone, so my time will come in my JR and SR years. As B’roy said, kids today would rather be the man on a .500 team than a player scrambling for minutes on a potential final 4 squad. I agree with this as well. Therefore, you’re right,  Ford’s biggest challenge will be how to keep everyone happy and motivated. 

It will be much more challenging if only conference games are played. With fewer games and teams (especially mid-majors) needing to really hit the ground running there probably won''t be the luxury of giving a talented but not quite ready underclassmen minutes to help develop. My guess is that under those circumstances Ford will limit the rotation to 7-8 trusted souls if he can. 

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49 minutes ago, MichaelC said:

It will be much more challenging if only conference games are played. With fewer games and teams (especially mid-majors) needing to really hit the ground running there probably won''t be the luxury of giving a talented but not quite ready underclassmen minutes to help develop. My guess is that under those circumstances Ford will limit the rotation to 7-8 trusted souls if he can. 

Trusted souls; 

JGood, Has, Perkins, Yuri, Bell, Jimerson, Thatch, Jacobs, Linssen, Hargrove. That’s 10 trusted souls. Agreed the 2 FR may get few minutes, but Ford has a 10 man proven rotation. Jacobs has had his moments. Hargrove made big strides. Linssen is experienced. Thatch is a D wiz who was a scorer in HS too. As someone stated above the virus may come into play, so it’s nice to have this many trusted souls. 

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