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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

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19 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

But behind closed doors, decision makers do have to answer that question and act accordingly.  It's such a scary question that the most opinionated posters on this board decline to answer it.  I don't blame you.  Nobody wants to be put in the horrific position of public health administrators, even hypothetically.

You are entirely correct 3 star. They are planning behind closed doors, and the true nature of  the planning will never be revealed. It is like the reason Santos left the team, anyone knows the real cause for this? No. All you can say is that the government is on a no holds barred response to the epidemic at any level you can imagine. That all kinds of money are being thrown at it, and that industry is being asked to do special things. The military is also activated. If this does not sound to you like they are planning for the absolute worst, then I  urge you to  reconsider. However, the planning and the money thrown at this epidemic may be overdone. it is a chicken and an egg situation, plan for the worst. If it does not happen claim victory for your efforts, or something like this. I know I am cynical about some things.

18 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Fauci is also the doc in the 80's that said we could get aids from kissing.   I have no doubt he is a very smart man, but he lives for this stuff.

Let's be cynical about Fauci as well. He is a Dr., he is an expert in infectious diseases and epidemics. All of that is true. It is also true that he is very high up in CDC, and it is even more true that this situation is tailor made to increase CDC's funding and power. Enough said.

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36 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I googled this and all I found was a Coulter article that allegedly quotes one sentence. Can you show me where he said this? I am curious to see the context 

He didn’t. In fact, when asked about the possibility in the early 1990s, Dr. Fauci rebuked the idea that HIV could be transmitted via saliva.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1993-02-28-9303185939-story.html

 

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16 hours ago, brianstl said:

In Old Guy’s defense, he isn’t some MBM mouthing off on here.  This is the stuff he did for a living.  Also, many in their field have took issue with Ferguson’s work.

You’re kidding correct? 

You wouldn’t know his credentials from reading this thread. What I have seen is consistent downplaying of the pandemic from him and at other times wildly contradictory opinions of a few other things. 

I have seen downplaying of the significant lack of administration preparedness and long delayed initial response. I have seen the downplaying of testing and tracing. I have seen the downplaying of the length of time of the pandemic. (He said its over in May) He has said there will be less than 26k U.S. deaths as if more than twice the flu death rate is no big deal. (I’m sure he’ll come back and elevate the flu mortality rate for us) And, of course, man others have suggested numbers much higher. And this is while everything is being shut down for weeks now. 

Numbers would be even significantly higher without large mitigation efforts. The flu of of course has treatment and vaccines of which COVID-19 does not. I have seen questionable economic thoughts as if letting things continue business as usual would be better economically than current efforts. Many others would disagree. I have seen zero global interest on his part. I have not yet seen where he has also discussed and included significant long term damage such as lung damage and other potentials which greatly reduce quality of life and increase mortality rates.  

I saw him praise Dr. Fauci but later question him as Fauci’s many interviews don’t line up with Old Guy’s beliefs. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Good bye courtside you go into the ignore bin, have fun.

Wow. Continually ignoring people who disagree with you shows the board everything we need to know about you. If people would step outside of their echo chambers, we would be a lot better off as a society.

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17 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Wow. Continually ignoring people who disagree with you shows the board everything we need to know about you. If people would step outside of their echo chambers, we would be a lot better off as a society.

Agreed. The board mirrors society where depending on your chosen media taking point of view that is all people believe. 

Yes the flu killed 37K and car crashes killed 38K but the truth is that if you open your mind and LISTEN to experts the potential is there to kill millions in just America which would affect everyone on this board. 

51 doctors have died in Italy ...ever here of a  doctor losing their life during flu season? It is not the flu and is not a hoax or many smart people would not have taken the steps to mitigate it's potential damage if it was . 

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Good bye courtside you go into the ignore bin, have fun.

Fresh off of the presses today Old Guy: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

Fauci apparently predicted this morning that the US would see millions of cases and 100,000-200,000 deaths. I missed the segment, so I’m not sure of the timeframe in which this would occur. Also, not sure if his prediction is based on maintaining current mitigation practices. 

That's great, significantly down from the possible millions of deaths he predicted two weeks ago. Sounds like we are moving in the right direction.

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25 minutes ago, courtside said:

Fresh off of the presses today Old Guy: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The key word is "possible".  If we have that many deaths then we screwed up the economic for nothing. I have feeling there will be a clarification on this later today.

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30 minutes ago, courtside said:

Fresh off of the presses today Old Guy: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lemire is an NBC "political analyst" for what it's worth.   personally i wouldnt hire this guy to take my trash cans out to the curb.  more panic work by the msm

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A lot of playing around with the word “prediction” here.  This isn’t like picking a bracket and the statements by Fauci and other are NOT “predictions” they are potential scenarios, based on certain assumptions and models that likely change daily since the data they are working with is so poor and incomplete.

The utter failure of the country to ramp up testing in January has everyone flying blind when they didn’t need to be.

3 minutes ago, slusam said:

The key word is "possible".  If we have that many deaths then we screwed up the economic for nothing. I have feeling there will be a clarification on this later today.

That really makes no sense.  100,000 dead, while a tragedy not seen in decades, would be much better for the economy than a million dead.  To suggest we need to save nearly everyone or save no one is a false and ridiculous choice.

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What happens when you try to play it off like the flu. 
 

The confirmed case fatality rate in the Netherlands of approximately 7% stands in stark contrast to its neighbor Germany’s 0.7%. The Netherlands, with a younger overall population and one that is almost 5 times smaller than Germany’s, has 60% more deaths.”

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And the millions of cases he is referring to is not millions of deaths or hospitalizations, but includes all of the asymptomatic cases and cases where it is merely a rough cold.  People who will never even get tested, at least until the test that tells you if you’ve had it after-the-fact rolls out.

I’m seeing more and more experts suggesting there could be 1 million infected people in the US, but 80%+ will never need medical intervention.  However having that many people with it makes controlling the spread without physical distancing and quarantines pretty much impossible.

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3 minutes ago, ARon said:

A lot of playing around with the word “prediction” here.  This isn’t like picking a bracket and the statements by Fauci and other are NOT “predictions” they are potential scenarios, based on certain assumptions and models that likely change daily since the data they are working with is so poor and incomplete.

The utter failure of the country to ramp up testing in January has everyone flying blind when they didn’t need to be.

That really makes no sense.  100,000 dead, while a tragedy not seen in decades, would be much better for the economy than a million dead.  To suggest we need to save nearly everyone or save no one is a false and ridiculous choice.

That is not what I am saying and you know it. I am saying if we have 200,000 deaths then then changes we made were failures. If those numbers happen we are not doing the right things

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7 minutes ago, slusam said:

That is not what I am saying and you know it. I am saying if we have 200,000 deaths then then changes we made were failures. If those numbers happen we are not doing the right things

What are the right numbers?

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I have little doubt that there are already millions of Americans carrying the virus.  And hundreds of thousands of deaths is a strong possibility, at least based on my fairly wide-ranging reading on this.  I am no expert, but for those suggesting this is just the stammering, hyperventilated MSM: you really need to get out in the sunshine and fresh air today.  If you aren't fairly alarmed by the reality of this pandemic, I suggest opening up your media sources a bit.  I already have one colleague with a father-in-law in dire condition in STL; one good friend who is a health worker and is infected; and another friend whose daughter nearly died from it in LA.

I'm astounded that so many wish to politicize every single angle, either pro or con Trump.  Look at the disasters in the NYC hospitals, and think about how our own situation here locally in about 3-4 weeks might look like that. Governors in LA and MI this morning on MTP were both searching high and low for equipment.  It may get bad, friends.  Go Bills!

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Just now, 3star_recruit said:

What are the right numbers?

3 star you are absolutely correct. What are the right numbers indeed? And even more, the right numbers for what purpose?

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19 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

lemire is an NBC "political analyst" for what it's worth.   personally i wouldnt hire this guy to take my trash cans out to the curb.  more panic work by the msm

Roy what would you hire DJT for? fix your car, check out your health, handle your finances, watch your pets, date your daughter, bridge partner?

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21 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

lemire is an NBC "political analyst" for what it's worth.   personally i wouldnt hire this guy to take my trash cans out to the curb.  more panic work by the msm

This is Dr. Fauci on video this morning in his own words. 

https://twitter.com/cnnsotu/status/1244275909944885248

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1244265355197009920

https://twitter.com/business/status/1244268426266361857

https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1244300870415769600

Fauci also says on television this morning he believes NYC will need the requested 30,000 ventilators. 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/cuomo-needs-30000-ventilators-for-coronavirus-stricken-new-yorkers-fauci/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Good bye courtside you go into the ignore bin, have fun.

Continually letting people know you are ignoring them sort of contradicts the meaning of the word ignore haha. 

 

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13 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

What are the right numbers?

I'm always an optimist. We have some of the smartest people in the world working on this problem. Treatments and maybe even a vaccine will be found before we have 200,000 deaths

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7 minutes ago, almaman said:

Roy what would you hire DJT for? fix your car, check out your health, handle your finances, watch your pets, date your daughter, bridge partner?

Competitive bridge is dead in the water.  I had a stipend from the ACBL to attend the Spring Nationals in March but relinquished it In early Feb because such tournaments attract a world wide following & are perfect breeding grounds for viruses.  You touch the same cards & breath the same air as you are a few feet from your partner & your opponents in a crowded room.  I cancelled my flight & living accommodations.  Within weeks , the national & most smaller tournaments were cancelled & likewise most bridge clubs in America, not to mention world wide.  There is already talk of canceling the summer national in Montreal & the fall national in Tampa.  The travel industry is crashing & with excellent cause.  Stay home if you can.  

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5 minutes ago, slusam said:

I'm always an optimist. We have some of the smartest people in the world working on this problem. Treatments and maybe even a vaccine will be found before we have 200,000 deaths

I'm going to keep pushing you here, if you don't mind.  So if the mitigation measures limit the deaths to 100,000, is that success?

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54 minutes ago, courtside said:

He also said "dont worry about best- case worst case scenarios." "They always overshoot."

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3 Star, we don’t know much until we get a critical mass tested. Since we have widespread community transmission, we are not going to get ahead of the eight ball in most major metropolitan areas where Covid has made its footfall.

Many hotspots are going to have widely divergent care protocols, dictated by their resources. New York City has reached its 911 limit already. People who have non life threatening emergencies are being told by EMTs to stay home. People who are younger and need oxygen will get it, probably be transported, and admitted. People who need a ventilator and are aged, or are coding/coded, are going to die.

The Navy hospital ship that was going to aid with Covid is instead probably diverted to be a clean side ER ship for non-Covid patients. Notice I said probably; with an overwhelmed medical community decisions change in half an hour.

New York State is a perfect model for epidemiologists and informatics. You have our country’s largest city, some large cities, smaller towns, and significant stretches of country. With the state deep in the thrall of Covid, the next five weeks will mirror what we can expect re modeling for huge cities, large cities, towns, and country, and write it large for the rest of the country via the four streams of modeling.

Anyone who thinks this is a media driven panic should dig deep on what is happening in NYC.

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