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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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8 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

Another plus: I no longer have to secretly wish that Jalen Crutcher would contract the coronavirus.  I have a clean conscience now.

Thank you box excellent post.

I must leave this thread forever. I will be anxiously waiting for the next recruiting update.

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45 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

What does one do without sports? I am truly at a loss for how I will spend my time/be happy.

maine cabin masters, counts customs, family feud, man vs food, treehouse masters, there is plenty of mindless entertainment.  

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I've been reading this thread and trying to figure out what I want to say. It's been difficult to temper my annoyance with the petty bickering (snowflake, Fox News = bad) and seeming lack of sympathy for the overall situation. I'm currently a family medicine resident. I no longer live in St Louis. I don't claim to know all the answers about COVID19, which are changing literally by the hour. My program director is sending out daily emails to keep us informed and they're out of date by noon the next day. That being said, here are some things I want to get off my chest.

 

1. For everyone comparing this to H1N1, we're far away from knowing what the total numbers of this disease will be. We are very much on the rising side of the infection curve. Maybe lots not compare the epidemic from 10 years ago to the first couple weeks of an epidemic now

2. If you are looking at numbers, know that anything reported is WILDLY lower than the true number of cases. We have tested next to no one yet. The testing system is in shambles. My hospital system had it set up but now the state department of health has stopped us from doing so. If people are giving you mortality rates, they are guessing. You can't have a mortality rate without knowing the denominator.

3. That being said, it does seem to be less fatal than MERS or SARS, and more fatal than seasonal flu. It's early though. 

4. For everyone comparing the panic now to the lack of panic around flu season, know that every single medical provider wishes for there to be a SMIDGE of this level of concern for flu. As many people have posted here flu infects millions and kills thousands each year. I try every visit to convince people to get their flu shots, with only some success. So if you actually think flu is worse than COVID-19, you better have gotten your flu shot this year (BTW, there's still time to get it)

5. As others have said, if this seems to go away without 50% of the population getting sick, then all these cancellations and other inconveniences have worked. That doesn't mean everything was overblown. China is recovering because they are a totalitarian government that has the ability to enact draconian measures. That will never happen in the US. But it can be slowed down and prevent the health system from being overrun. Worst case scenario is similar to Italy. If the disease is unchecked, there will not be enough beds or ventilators to care for the COVID patients, not to mention all the other people who get sick. ICUs are usually over 90% full in general. The health system cannot handle an influx of ill patients. Even if most people have a mild case, there could be FAR too many who need ventilators for us to help. If it is slowed down, however, we may be able to care for everyone and save as many as possible. It still might not be enough.

 

Image result for flatten the curve

 

 

/Rant over

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From a New York Times article released today.  Just food for thought.  I wonder whether everyone will look back on this and realize that the paranoia was worse than the disease:

"By definition, the case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases, which appears to be what the WHO did to arrive at its rate.

Is 3.4% a misleading number? We spoke to a number of experts in epidemiology, and they all agreed that 1% was probably more realistic (the WHO has also said the number would probably fall). "

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

After they did exactly what we're starting to do.  Italy didn't lock down right away and now they're paying the price.

Italy didn’t have a President who quickly shut down travel to China... oh, and this same President was called irrational and racist when he did it...

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1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

Duke and Kansas have both suspended all sports indefinitely. You would think the NCAA tournament final canceling is coming soon. Not sure why the NCAA is putting this on the individual schools/conferences

 Pretty sure Kansas is dropping out to avoid their yearly first weekend upset.

They also realize if they actually win the title will be vacated in a year or two anyway.

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2 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

From a New York Times article released today.  Just food for thought.  I wonder whether everyone will look back on this and realize that the paranoia was worse than the disease:

"By definition, the case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases, which appears to be what the WHO did to arrive at its rate.

Is 3.4% a misleading number? We spoke to a number of experts in epidemiology, and they all agreed that 1% was probably more realistic (the WHO has also said the number would probably fall). "

If 50 million Americans become infected, 1% means 500,000 dead.

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24 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

What's the mortality rate of swine flu?  What's the mortality rate of COVID-19?  There's your answer.  

Per the New York Times who were quoting medical experts and WHO, probably less than 1%

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11 minutes ago, dlarry said:

 Pretty sure Kansas is dropping out to avoid their yearly first weekend upset.

They also realize if they actually win the title will be vacated in a year or two anyway.

Kansas and Duke “voluntarily” suspended their athletic events in exchange for 2 years probation.  Just “guessing”.

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17 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

From a New York Times article released today.  Just food for thought.  I wonder whether everyone will look back on this and realize that the paranoia was worse than the disease:

"By definition, the case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases, which appears to be what the WHO did to arrive at its rate.

Is 3.4% a misleading number? We spoke to a number of experts in epidemiology, and they all agreed that 1% was probably more realistic (the WHO has also said the number would probably fall). "

The article linked earlier had a great description on the fatality rate.  Essentially, it was based on how prepared a country was and likely varied from 0.5% (most prepared) to 6% (least prepared). 

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I read all 19 pages this afternoon. It's been fascinating to chart the whole thing and see the reactions. Sports is a distraction and refuge for all of us. It sucks to see this dream of season possibly ended.

I'm thankful for the people who've provided good information. I hope those who are in power make wise decisions to minimize the impact. As somebody who came to St. Louis largely because of Hurricane Katrina, I can say this: airborne diseases and hurricanes have no political agenda. I can say that the decisions of politicians and of media and its influencers will have a tremendous impact on the level of disruption and death that results. 

I myself work at SLU and was thinking it would be great to take my kids and my wife to see my mom in the coming weeks.... cheap flights, all that. But just in the process of thinking this through, I realized what a risk I'd be taking. Not to my kids or myself, but to my mom, who's nearing 80 and has had bronchial issues. To go from a plane + rental car directly to her house, or even two days later, runs the risk of exposing somebody to a disease that would have a 10% chance of killing her. 

Those who compare this to the flu aren't totally off, with the exception of the extreme vulnerability of the elderly to this disease. Stay safe, Billiken nation. 

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China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later.  Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half.

 

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4 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Same way people act in small towns every day with little to do:   sex and alcohol

If they advise a national self quarantine there is going to be another baby boom.

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1 minute ago, cgeldmacher said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal.

 

Take those infection/fatality numbers with a grain of salt. It’s in China’s economic interest to get to “normalcy” ASAP. 

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All these people comparing it to the flu response.  Influenza attacks people largely over a 4+ month period.  The really sick people are spread out over that time.  It's more predictable--hospitals basically know what they're getting and when.  It doesn't overwhelm medical facilities.

H1H1 was a little different.  It started earlier, lasted longer, and predominantly hit kids/pregnant woman/ health younger adults.  But it was still manageable (except Mexico).  People worried, news went on and on, but eventually settled down.

This is totally different.  It goes from nothing to overwhelming in a few weeks.  Whatever the mortality rate is, the consensus is that it is much higher than the flu.  The only way to limit the damage in outbreaks like this is social distancing.  Just like the 1918 flu epidemic, which is what this should be compared to.  Do you think the people who shut everything down in 1918 hated their president?

Or maybe, in 1918, they freaked out and shut everything down because they knew a hundred years in the future that Trump would be president and they knew they would hate him? 😜

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6 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

The article linked earlier had a great description on the fatality rate.  Essentially, it was based on how prepared a country was and likely varied from 0.5% (most prepared) to 6% (least prepared). 

There's also strong sentiment that the fatality rate is much lower than 1%.  The reasoning is that many more people have it than have been officially diagnosed with it.  The people with the serious symptoms are the ones who get tested and reported.  The ones with mild symptoms aren't even going to the doctor.

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2 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Take those infection/fatality numbers with a grain of salt. It’s in China’s economic interest to get to “normalcy” ASAP. 

I would also argue that its in the US's interest to do the same.

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