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Dayton over The Bills by 5

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What a great win at Richmond....check out the Richmond spread thread to see my post game analysis ....not only to see the how and why of the win but also important is that the win is relevant to the Dayton game...We need to do a lot of the same things in this game as we did in the Rich game and at the same pace or better.  Rich  was a great offensive team....Dayton is Rich on steroids.

We remain as a B team....unchanged since the SIU game however we are trending at A-,...Unfortunately, Day is not only an A+  team but they are also trending at A+...The trending spread, however  is only 3 pts in favor of Day....so this game is winnable.

Let's check the report card to see what we are up against....

 

..............................SLU...........................Day.................................................................SLU...............................Day

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+...............................A+...6th ITN..............................................B......................................B

FG%.........................C+...............................A+...1st ITN........................................... ..B+.......................................C+

3Pt%........................D+..............................A-................................................................C-.......................................C-

FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.......B... ...............................................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................C-.................................................................C.......................................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN....Down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....PPG....FG%...3P% def........... DOWN....3P%

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...29th.....up

Assts...Collins....34th.....up

Rebs...Goodwin..15th.....French...21th....down and down

Blks.....French....16th...up

PPG....Toppin....33rd

Assts...Crutcher...52nd

FG%...Toppin....34th

3P%....Watson...46th 

Of note...offense continues a gradual improvement but 3P shooting is fading away.....Meanwhile the defense is strengthening ...lead by 3P defense.

Injury report....

Thatch...G...1/8/20...out indefinitely...He is sidelined with myalgia in his lower leg muscles.There is currently no time table for his return.

C. Johnson...F...1/10 /20...out for season...medically withdrawn ...PCS....post concussion syndrome and Mono

Sissoko...C...11/11/19...out for season...redshirt year.

WWN2D2W.....Stop the Top...easier said then done...however, we don't need to shut him down...just slow him down a bit...if this is a close game,  trimming just a few pts from his scoring could be a difference maker....Hold Toppin to 15 pts and under 50% shooting...Win the rebound battle by 6...Stop Watson from the arc ...he is a great 3pt shooter when left alone...let's bother him and keep him under 40%....TO differential at least 2 ...Like the Rich game we need to contain their offense ...slow things down...Hold them to 52 shots...their slash...46/31/70....Hold them to 67 pts ...the lower their score the better chance we have to win...And finally the Bills need to make some shots...at least four 3PM...slash...48/33/60

Bottom line...Most odds makers will give this game to Dayton by 6...However the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...avoid TOs...stay around 11 and  avoid the cold spell ...stay around the projected slash...and we could be looking at a W.

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Why do I feel like this is one of those games where we shut down Toppin and then a guy like Crutcher drops a 30 burger on us? 

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Dayton personnel ---- while Toppin is the talk of college basketball, Dayton has some nice role players who fill holes and play unselfishly to make it all work.  The three-headed guard is Chatman/Crutcher/Watson.  For the most part, Chatman and Crutcher are interchangeable at the point while Crutcher and Watson have become interchangeable at the two guard.  From the point perspective, Crutcher is the better ballhandler; Chatman had moments of failure against VCU's press. But who wouldn't.   Watson appears to be the better shooter but Crutcher has been launching daggers all year.  Leave Crutcher alone andhe'll easily bury you with threes.  Watson is the more athletic of the two and can finish atthe rim better than Crutcher.  Matos and Cohill do nothing more than rest the big three.  To me, their backcourt resembles the halycon days of Mitchell, McCall and Jett.

Mikesell and Landers start at the forwards and are key cogs if unspectacular.  Goodwin ate Mikesell's lunch twice last year but you can't sub for fifth year senior leadership.  Landers is the energizer bunny ala Weathers at Duquesne.  He likely wins more hustle awards than anyone I've seen and plays like a middle linebacker at times.  Both can bury a jumper or two but both defer to Toppin and just do what they can to add tothe team.  Dayton may lead the nation in apg last time I checked.  Their overall weakness seems to be offensive rebounding and free throw shooting.  And by Ft shooting I mean they can go cold pretty quickly than most.  But still better than us.

Tshimanga is coming off injury and hasn't done much to warrant mention of any sort.  The best thing I can say about him is that he had two years at Nebraska and 60 or so games going to war in the Big Ten.   At Dayton, he's done little.  It's a weak front court; if needed Matos at 6'5" can come in for short stints on the front line.  Chase Johnson was supposed to help.  

Johnson coudl have made them a seven-man team, which is usually enough to dominate the A10.  The difference to me is Toppin's athleticism.  He would appear to be two-and-done right now ..... he is that impressive as a college kid and I see him as a lottery pick.  He's mostly all about dunking and if you limit him there, he can and does take it outside.  But his game does suffer out there.  This is the best, all around pro prospect I've seen in the A10 since DeAndre Bembry of St. Joe's.  His speed and athleticism will make him a handful for either French or Bell --- neither can stay with him from the perimeter on in.  Toppin has great overall FG% numbers but I'd liketo see him post those from distance; I don't want to see a dunking contest.  If we do that, we need to seal off Mikesell and especially Landers from crashing and creating second shots.

Going to have to DVR this one and watch late (grandkids).  Won't be playing on the GDT again on this one.  Go Bills.  As noted by NYB, this is our most opportune chance to make some noise and get noticed.  I don't think anyone outside of Biancardi is paying attention to us in the A10.  It's all Dayton, Duquesne and Richmond right now.

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I watched the 2019 A10 tournament game with Dayton to see how we beat them.

3 point shooting will have to be near 40 percent to keep the defense from packing it in.  Isabell nailed some huge 3’s that game so big 3’s will be needed by Weaver Jacobs Perkins and the traditional 1 big 3 from Goodwin every game.  I think 3 made 3’s from Weaver and Jacobs 2 from Perkins and 1 from Goodwin will make Dayton defend the 3.

Our team also slowed down Toppin and held him under his 14 point average he had last season.

I would feel better having Thatch who came in and defend well in that game but did not score.

With losing 2 players this season this is not a big mismatch and the remaining players can win this game.  Our players and coach are really special no matter the outcome of this game.

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Well, as we've seen this year just about anybody can beat anybody, so it's not impossible. I have only seen snippets of SVU this year, so have nothing to add to Taj Mahal 79's post. Besides, he's my go to guy on the rest of the A10. For the overall rep of the program this would be a nice game to win. Plus we'd get the benefit of seeing all those red SV's slinking out of the Fetz in shame. You can bet there'll be a slug of them in attendance. St. Louis eateries should do a booming biz this weekend and give SLU 10% of their profits. The SVU crowd doesn't travel in dribs and drabs, they come at you like a swarm of locusts. 

I would agree, says Captain Obvious, to keep SVU honest we are going to have get some outside shots to fall. I just don't know who we can rely on to hit them. Everyone says Perkins, but so far his perimeter game has not been a strongpoint for him. Jacobs has shown flashes. Weaver the same. But we don't have anyone who is causing SVU defenders sleepless nights. Hoping for a great game. It's doable, but it won't come easy. 

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Dayton the #2 offense in the nation per KenPom. Just ridiculous. Watching VCU, what struck me is this: they're a team. They know how to play together. Everybody on their team passes and understands the offense. 20 years ago, this team, with one clear NBA player, and a bunch of good, role-playing vets, would be the 25th-35th best team. Now all of the factories have guys leaving early + tons of transfers, some of whom don't work (eg. Blackshear at Florida). Dayton is a legit Final Four threat if healthy. Toppin a monster. 

They weren't great, especially against ball pressure, but that 22-0 run was a thing of beauty. We simply can't let them score 11 points in 90 seconds. Their defense is 39th, but I attribute that to the other team usually starting their possessions by taking the ball out of their own basket. SLU's defense is better and tougher. 

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5 hours ago, CBFan said:

I watched the 2019 A10 tournament game with Dayton to see how we beat them.

3 point shooting will have to be near 40 percent to keep the defense from packing it in.  Isabell nailed some huge 3’s that game so big 3’s will be needed by Weaver Jacobs Perkins and the traditional 1 big 3 from Goodwin every game.  I think 3 made 3’s from Weaver and Jacobs 2 from Perkins and 1 from Goodwin will make Dayton defend the 3.

Our team also slowed down Toppin and held him under his 14 point average he had last season.

I would feel better having Thatch who came in and defend well in that game but did not score.

With losing 2 players this season this is not a big mismatch and the remaining players can win this game.  Our players and coach are really special no matter the outcome of this game.

Did you have this DVR’d? If not, do you know of somewhere online to watch it? Thanks.

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4 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

SLU student tickets sold out this morning within a couple hours. 

The Fetz is gonna be rocking. 

I wonder if they are using the seats behind the student section for student seating too 

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3 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I wonder if they are using the seats behind the student section for student seating too 

I’d imagine those seats were sold. 

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1 minute ago, Bills_06 said:

Larry Hughes giving away tickets.

 

the last request is a little difficult lol

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14 minutes ago, wgstl said:

UD board is interesting, a decent amount of people think SLU wins. 

You gotta get into Dayton twitter to get a full picture. UD pride is mostly whitehairs

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1 minute ago, billikenfan05 said:

You gotta get into Dayton twitter to get a full picture. UD pride is mostly whitehairs

any good accounts worth following for the next few days?

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4 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

You gotta get into Dayton twitter to get a full picture. UD pride is mostly whitehairs

dayton fans think very highly of themselves - imagine if we thought that way in 11-12 when we were in kenpom top 10.

 

Making them hard to root for imo

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4 minutes ago, wgstl said:

any good accounts worth following for the next few days?

@blackburnreview

@sullymygoodname

Both good follows for the whole season imo

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51 minutes ago, NH said:

Did you have this DVR’d? If not, do you know of somewhere online to watch it? Thanks.

It is still on my DVR I cannot let go

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