Jump to content
Billikens.com Message Board
Sign in to follow this  
The Wiz

Boston Coll over The Bills by 4

Recommended Posts

Belmont was a quality win and a historic game for French.  For post game analysis see my post in the Belmont spread thread.

On to BC....There are a number of similarities  in the game between Bel and BC. We are both currently ranked as B teams....so the spread difference is mainly a home field advantage. But make no mistake about it ....BC is not Bel.  They do not have as many ways to hurt us but hurt us they can.  While BC lost to Bel,  they did score 85 pts against them. So we will need to play D against them. ..And that game was played at Bel.  Like the Bel game,  this game will be determined by our weaknesses...FT shooting  and 3P defense. ....We overcame those handicaps in the Bel game....Great 3 pt D and we made FTs at the end of game when it really counted.

Let's see what the report card looks like....

..............................SLU.............................BC.............................................SLU...................................BC

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+................................C...............................................B-...................................C+

FG%..........................B-.................................C-......................................... ..B.....................................B-

3Pt%..........................C+................................C............................................D-....................................D

FT%...........................F-... worst ITN............B-.............................................................................................

Reb............................A-...............................D..............................................C.....................................D-

 

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Change from last game....Up ..Reb....PPG def.....3P% def ...FG% def......... Down....  .PPG.....FG%...3P%...FT % (down from 4th worst to worst ITN)...Yes we have hit rock bottom in FTs....the good news is we won't appear in this down column next time....it can only go up from here.

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...41th....Collins...100th

Assts...Collins....14th

Rebs...French.....21st

Blks.....French....15th

Rebs...Mitchell...64th

Stls...Mitchell.....67th

Blks...Mitchell....100th

Also we are 17th ITN in Off Reb

Overall we are slightly better than BC on O & D but not enough to overcome their home field advantage ....on paper....Is this game winnable ...yes....more so than 4 point advantage Bel had over us. Those that are looking for trends will notice that our defense has been on the upswing ... we need to have a  few more  good 3P defensive games.to say we are decent over all on D....AND our Offense has been trending down.   We have shown we can do both ...Now we need to put it together .

WWN2D2W....Mitchell is their game changer...Rebs ,stls & blks...Hold him to 7 Rebs....Win the TO battle by 2...if we do away with the unforced TOs we can widen that TO margin which would be a big step to victory... also BC is vulnerable to the TO if we pressure them....Dominate the boards...other than Mitchell  they are not a rebounding team...Dominate means out rebounding  by 10. ...Finally start making some shots...48/35/64...these are very doable numbers....yes even the FT shooting....think 5 of 6 from the charity stripe with 2 min left in the Bel game.

Bottom line...For the second straight game...we are under dogs by 4 pts.  This game is more winnable than the Bel game was because we are more evenly matched with BC....and we play pretty well on the road (last year).   If we put it together...offense AND defense....we win....Go Bills

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no idea what the final spread before the game will be but I suspect it will be lower than 4 points. Could not agree more that his is a game we can win. It may not be easy, no game is really easy, but judging by Teamrankings stats and rankings it should be less of a challenge to SLU than playing Belmont. Prior to the game the rankings for SLU and Belmont were respectively 131 and 40. This is a differential advantage in ranking of 71 in favor of Belmont. Prior to the game the rankings of SLU and BC as of today are 122 and 105. This is a differential ranking advantage for BC of 17, a lot lower than the ranking advantage against Belmont was. Furthermore the game stat analysis by team rankings up to today, show SLU ahead of BC in every  single offensive and defensive categories, with the exception of a) steals / game (SLU 9,0, BC 9.8, very close), and b) personal fouls per game (SLU 18.8, BC 14.8). Other than these we are ahead of BC in every category.

It is true that BC has very good players, it is true this is our first real away game for our freshmen, it is true that we have to bring with us our tough defensive game. Finally, it is true this will not be an easy game. However, let me don my rose colored glasses and believe that this is not only a winnable game, but one we will win. Go Bills!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's our first road game. Bunch of freshman on our team. I will be happy if we don't lose by double figures. If we win time to reexamine some of the season record predictions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129

Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129

Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road).

The most bizarre tournament format I’ve ever seen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

The most bizarre tournament format I’ve ever seen. 

I'm not saying that it's not bizarre, but I understand it.  The "Power 5" conference team hosts the event and gets all home games; the borderline high major (or high mid-major, or whatever, depending on the individual, I guess) team gets all home games except for one road game against the host; and the remaining three "mid-major" or "low-major" teams play all road games except that each one gets one home game.

It gets the mid-major a game against a "power" opponent, and it gets the "lower" programs a chance to play a home game against a similar program outside of their conference.

I prefer exempt tournaments with eight teams in a bracket format on a neutral court, but those are hard to come by.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I'm not saying that it's not bizarre, but I understand it.  The "Power 5" conference team hosts the event and gets all home games; the borderline high major (or high mid-major, or whatever, depending on the individual, I guess) team gets all home games except for one road game against the host; and the remaining three "mid-major" or "low-major" teams play all road games except that each one gets one home game.

It gets the mid-major a game against a "power" opponent, and it gets the "lower" programs a chance to play a home game against a similar program outside of their conference.

I prefer exempt tournaments with eight teams in a bracket format on a neutral court, but those are hard to come by.

Agreed on the neutral court format for 8 teams. I don't know we can't get invited to one. I think the last time we played in one was the Anaheim tourney back 2011. I may be wrong, but that one stands out since we won it and beat OU and Nova to do it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129

Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road).

Yes, it was at Belmont...doesn't change anything as the computer always knows where the games are.....The BC home advantage is 3.96 pts....shows you how evenly matched the Bills/ BC game  is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im nervous because it’s not only a road game, but the first road game. But after watching them a few times, This is very winnable as long as we play a good game. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Yes, it was at Belmont...doesn't change anything as the computer always knows where the games are.....The BC home advantage is 3.96 pts....shows you how evenly matched the Bills/ BC game  is.

It was at BC, not Belmont.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston.com/sports/college-sports/2019/11/17/bc-belmont-score-highlights-recap/amp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, wgstl said:

Im nervous because it’s not only a road game, but the first road game. But after watching them a few times, This is very winnable as long as we play a good game. 

I share your concern....Home advantages of more than 3.4 pts are considered tough places to play....Generally away games are more difficult  in Nov than in Feb when Freshman and new players have had time to adjust..Hopefully the students will be gone for the holiday and the rest of the fan base getting ready for T-giving.   If we play the same defense  defense we did against  Bel with better a little better shooting  and fewer unforced errors we should win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BC only beat Eastern Washington by 4 as well.  Hopefully we don’t forget how to play basketball when we are away from Chaifetz.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

BC only beat Eastern Washington by 4 as well.  Hopefully we don’t forget how to play basketball when we are away from Chaifetz.  

Belmont also outrebounded them

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't this game tipping at 2 pm Eastern?  A Wednesday afternoon game the day before Thanksgiving?  I only mention that because its got "cold start" written all over it.  Hope it's them and not us.  I'll be in Phoenix..... on a couch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Isn't this game tipping at 2 pm Eastern?  A Wednesday afternoon game the day before Thanksgiving?  I only mention that because its got "cold start" written all over it.  Hope it's them and not us.  I'll be in Phoenix..... on a couch.

The Bills have started cold in most of their games this year, so it (hopefully) can’t hurt us too much.

  • FGCU was up 6-4 over 4 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22.  
  • Valpo was up 23-21 10 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 21.  
  • EWU was up 6-3 over 2 1/2 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22.  
  • Seton Hall was up 10-0 nearly 5 minutes into the game.
  • High Point was up 16-14 over 12 minutes into the game.  SLU was up over 20 in the 2nd half and won by 12.
  • SLU spotted Belmont a 9-3 until about 6 1/2 minutes in.

I know Collins has been in the starting lineup for us the past couple of games in place of Thatch.  However, I still don’t think we have enough shooting in our starting lineup.  I’d start Jimerson or Weaver instead of Collins or end the Bell as a starter experiment and start small.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I share your concern....Home advantages of more than 3.4 pts are considered tough places to play....Generally away games are more difficult  in Nov than in Feb when Freshman and new players have had time to adjust..Hopefully the students will be gone for the holiday and the rest of the fan base getting ready for T-giving.   If we play the same defense  defense we did against  Bel with better a little better shooting  and fewer unforced errors we should win.

I know you’ve already mentioned it so I apologize, but what is our home court advantage in terms of points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

The Bills have started cold in most of their games this year, so it (hopefully) can’t hurt us too much.

FGCU was up 6-4 over 4 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22.  
Valpo was up 23-21 10 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 21.  

EWU was up 6-3 over 2 1/2 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22.  
Seton Hall was up 10-0 nearly 5 minutes into the game.

High Point was up 16-14 over 12 minutes into the game.  SLU was up over 20 in the 2nd half and won by 12.

SLU spotted Belmont a 9-3 until about 6 1/2 minutes in.

I know Collins has been in the starting lineup for us the past couple of games in place of Thatch.  However, I still don’t think we have enough shooting in our starting lineup.  I’d start Jimerson or Weaver instead of Collins or end the Bell as a starter experiment and start small.

And our worst start resulted in only loss. Seems a waste to finally have a center that wins tipoff and we sputter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

I know you’ve already mentioned it so I apologize, but what is our home court advantage in terms of points.

No problem....it is 4.17 pts which grades out as a B+ among all D1 venues.....There is no place like home

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am loving this mini-tradition of having a game the day before Thanksgiving - it's a great way to start the holiday weekend, and it gives me a reasonable excuse to day drink.  Now, unlike last year's Pitt game, let's win this one!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

I am loving this mini-tradition of having a game the day before Thanksgiving - it's a great way to start the holiday weekend, and it gives me a reasonable excuse to day drink.  Now, unlike last year's Pitt game, let's win this one!

Where you drinking? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Where you drinking? 

This is a good question, what bars have the acc network? Hoping the post does 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BC lost to DePaul at home. If we lose this game we need to pack it up and start over next season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-Depaul beat Iowa at Iowa by 15, I saw some of that game and Depaul looked pretty good

-the first game on the road scenario with all our new guys added to our slow starts has me concerned but confident as the Blue Kool-Aid flowed heavily after Belmont

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...