The Wiz Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Belmont was a quality win and a historic game for French. For post game analysis see my post in the Belmont spread thread. On to BC....There are a number of similarities in the game between Bel and BC. We are both currently ranked as B teams....so the spread difference is mainly a home field advantage. But make no mistake about it ....BC is not Bel. They do not have as many ways to hurt us but hurt us they can. While BC lost to Bel, they did score 85 pts against them. So we will need to play D against them. ..And that game was played at Bel. Like the Bel game, this game will be determined by our weaknesses...FT shooting and 3P defense. ....We overcame those handicaps in the Bel game....Great 3 pt D and we made FTs at the end of game when it really counted. Let's see what the report card looks like.... ..............................SLU.............................BC.............................................SLU...................................BC ................................................OFF................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C+................................C...............................................B-...................................C+ FG%..........................B-.................................C-......................................... ..B.....................................B- 3Pt%..........................C+................................C............................................D-....................................D FT%...........................F-... worst ITN............B-............................................................................................. Reb............................A-...............................D..............................................C.....................................D- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Change from last game....Up ..Reb....PPG def.....3P% def ...FG% def......... Down.... .PPG.....FG%...3P%...FT % (down from 4th worst to worst ITN)...Yes we have hit rock bottom in FTs....the good news is we won't appear in this down column next time....it can only go up from here. Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...41th....Collins...100th Assts...Collins....14th Rebs...French.....21st Blks.....French....15th Rebs...Mitchell...64th Stls...Mitchell.....67th Blks...Mitchell....100th Also we are 17th ITN in Off Reb Overall we are slightly better than BC on O & D but not enough to overcome their home field advantage ....on paper....Is this game winnable ...yes....more so than 4 point advantage Bel had over us. Those that are looking for trends will notice that our defense has been on the upswing ... we need to have a few more good 3P defensive games.to say we are decent over all on D....AND our Offense has been trending down. We have shown we can do both ...Now we need to put it together . WWN2D2W....Mitchell is their game changer...Rebs ,stls & blks...Hold him to 7 Rebs....Win the TO battle by 2...if we do away with the unforced TOs we can widen that TO margin which would be a big step to victory... also BC is vulnerable to the TO if we pressure them....Dominate the boards...other than Mitchell they are not a rebounding team...Dominate means out rebounding by 10. ...Finally start making some shots...48/35/64...these are very doable numbers....yes even the FT shooting....think 5 of 6 from the charity stripe with 2 min left in the Bel game. Bottom line...For the second straight game...we are under dogs by 4 pts. This game is more winnable than the Bel game was because we are more evenly matched with BC....and we play pretty well on the road (last year). If we put it together...offense AND defense....we win....Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I have no idea what the final spread before the game will be but I suspect it will be lower than 4 points. Could not agree more that his is a game we can win. It may not be easy, no game is really easy, but judging by Teamrankings stats and rankings it should be less of a challenge to SLU than playing Belmont. Prior to the game the rankings for SLU and Belmont were respectively 131 and 40. This is a differential advantage in ranking of 71 in favor of Belmont. Prior to the game the rankings of SLU and BC as of today are 122 and 105. This is a differential ranking advantage for BC of 17, a lot lower than the ranking advantage against Belmont was. Furthermore the game stat analysis by team rankings up to today, show SLU ahead of BC in every single offensive and defensive categories, with the exception of a) steals / game (SLU 9,0, BC 9.8, very close), and b) personal fouls per game (SLU 18.8, BC 14.8). Other than these we are ahead of BC in every category. It is true that BC has very good players, it is true this is our first real away game for our freshmen, it is true that we have to bring with us our tough defensive game. Finally, it is true this will not be an easy game. However, let me don my rose colored glasses and believe that this is not only a winnable game, but one we will win. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 It's our first road game. Bunch of freshman on our team. I will be happy if we don't lose by double figures. If we win time to reexamine some of the season record predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont. https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129 Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road). SLU_Nick and Aquinas like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont. https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129 Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road). The most bizarre tournament format I’ve ever seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: The most bizarre tournament format I’ve ever seen. I'm not saying that it's not bizarre, but I understand it. The "Power 5" conference team hosts the event and gets all home games; the borderline high major (or high mid-major, or whatever, depending on the individual, I guess) team gets all home games except for one road game against the host; and the remaining three "mid-major" or "low-major" teams play all road games except that each one gets one home game. It gets the mid-major a game against a "power" opponent, and it gets the "lower" programs a chance to play a home game against a similar program outside of their conference. I prefer exempt tournaments with eight teams in a bracket format on a neutral court, but those are hard to come by. 3star_recruit likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: I'm not saying that it's not bizarre, but I understand it. The "Power 5" conference team hosts the event and gets all home games; the borderline high major (or high mid-major, or whatever, depending on the individual, I guess) team gets all home games except for one road game against the host; and the remaining three "mid-major" or "low-major" teams play all road games except that each one gets one home game. It gets the mid-major a game against a "power" opponent, and it gets the "lower" programs a chance to play a home game against a similar program outside of their conference. I prefer exempt tournaments with eight teams in a bracket format on a neutral court, but those are hard to come by. Agreed on the neutral court format for 8 teams. I don't know we can't get invited to one. I think the last time we played in one was the Anaheim tourney back 2011. I may be wrong, but that one stands out since we won it and beat OU and Nova to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Wiz, you are incorrect that the Belmont/Boston College game was at Belmont. https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/tournaments/Round-Robin/Gotham-Classic/31/Schedule/2020/9129 Boston College does not have any away games in the tournament; Belmont's only home game in the tournament was against High Point (Belmont's game against E. Wash. will be on the road). Yes, it was at Belmont...doesn't change anything as the computer always knows where the games are.....The BC home advantage is 3.96 pts....shows you how evenly matched the Bills/ BC game is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Im nervous because it’s not only a road game, but the first road game. But after watching them a few times, This is very winnable as long as we play a good game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG BILL FAN Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: Yes, it was at Belmont...doesn't change anything as the computer always knows where the games are.....The BC home advantage is 3.96 pts....shows you how evenly matched the Bills/ BC game is. It was at BC, not Belmont. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston.com/sports/college-sports/2019/11/17/bc-belmont-score-highlights-recap/amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, BIG BILL FAN said: It was at BC, not Belmont. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston.com/sports/college-sports/2019/11/17/bc-belmont-score-highlights-recap/amp I meant BC....Lot of games ...a lot of numbers floating around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, wgstl said: Im nervous because it’s not only a road game, but the first road game. But after watching them a few times, This is very winnable as long as we play a good game. I share your concern....Home advantages of more than 3.4 pts are considered tough places to play....Generally away games are more difficult in Nov than in Feb when Freshman and new players have had time to adjust..Hopefully the students will be gone for the holiday and the rest of the fan base getting ready for T-giving. If we play the same defense defense we did against Bel with better a little better shooting and fewer unforced errors we should win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 BC only beat Eastern Washington by 4 as well. Hopefully we don’t forget how to play basketball when we are away from Chaifetz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: BC only beat Eastern Washington by 4 as well. Hopefully we don’t forget how to play basketball when we are away from Chaifetz. Belmont also outrebounded them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Isn't this game tipping at 2 pm Eastern? A Wednesday afternoon game the day before Thanksgiving? I only mention that because its got "cold start" written all over it. Hope it's them and not us. I'll be in Phoenix..... on a couch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 11 hours ago, Taj79 said: Isn't this game tipping at 2 pm Eastern? A Wednesday afternoon game the day before Thanksgiving? I only mention that because its got "cold start" written all over it. Hope it's them and not us. I'll be in Phoenix..... on a couch. The Bills have started cold in most of their games this year, so it (hopefully) can’t hurt us too much. FGCU was up 6-4 over 4 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22. Valpo was up 23-21 10 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 21. EWU was up 6-3 over 2 1/2 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22. Seton Hall was up 10-0 nearly 5 minutes into the game. High Point was up 16-14 over 12 minutes into the game. SLU was up over 20 in the 2nd half and won by 12. SLU spotted Belmont a 9-3 until about 6 1/2 minutes in. I know Collins has been in the starting lineup for us the past couple of games in place of Thatch. However, I still don’t think we have enough shooting in our starting lineup. I’d start Jimerson or Weaver instead of Collins or end the Bell as a starter experiment and start small. slusam likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillIkenFan_Dan Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, The Wiz said: I share your concern....Home advantages of more than 3.4 pts are considered tough places to play....Generally away games are more difficult in Nov than in Feb when Freshman and new players have had time to adjust..Hopefully the students will be gone for the holiday and the rest of the fan base getting ready for T-giving. If we play the same defense defense we did against Bel with better a little better shooting and fewer unforced errors we should win. I know you’ve already mentioned it so I apologize, but what is our home court advantage in terms of points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said: The Bills have started cold in most of their games this year, so it (hopefully) can’t hurt us too much. FGCU was up 6-4 over 4 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22. Valpo was up 23-21 10 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 21. EWU was up 6-3 over 2 1/2 minutes into the game and SLU eventually won by 22. Seton Hall was up 10-0 nearly 5 minutes into the game. High Point was up 16-14 over 12 minutes into the game. SLU was up over 20 in the 2nd half and won by 12. SLU spotted Belmont a 9-3 until about 6 1/2 minutes in. I know Collins has been in the starting lineup for us the past couple of games in place of Thatch. However, I still don’t think we have enough shooting in our starting lineup. I’d start Jimerson or Weaver instead of Collins or end the Bell as a starter experiment and start small. And our worst start resulted in only loss. Seems a waste to finally have a center that wins tipoff and we sputter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said: I know you’ve already mentioned it so I apologize, but what is our home court advantage in terms of points. No problem....it is 4.17 pts which grades out as a B+ among all D1 venues.....There is no place like home BillIkenFan_Dan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 it is 1 SLU time. Assume no school this week at least not Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 I am loving this mini-tradition of having a game the day before Thanksgiving - it's a great way to start the holiday weekend, and it gives me a reasonable excuse to day drink. Now, unlike last year's Pitt game, let's win this one! GoSluBills, RiseAndGrind, slufan13 and 2 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Box and Won said: I am loving this mini-tradition of having a game the day before Thanksgiving - it's a great way to start the holiday weekend, and it gives me a reasonable excuse to day drink. Now, unlike last year's Pitt game, let's win this one! Where you drinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said: Where you drinking? This is a good question, what bars have the acc network? Hoping the post does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 BC lost to DePaul at home. If we lose this game we need to pack it up and start over next season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 -Depaul beat Iowa at Iowa by 15, I saw some of that game and Depaul looked pretty good -the first game on the road scenario with all our new guys added to our slow starts has me concerned but confident as the Blue Kool-Aid flowed heavily after Belmont The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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