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36 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

It looks like the only A10 school that has a shot at an At Large is VCU.  So I'm for VCU winning all but one more game, and then getting dumped late in the tourney.

This simply isn't true. Our NET will sky-rocket if we go on the road and beat quality teams like Dayton and VCU.

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14 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I think we need to consult The Wiz.  I'm still trying to figure out this new NET, am basically parroting what I've read.

The NCAA will massage the numbers in a different way and come up with what it wants. Nobody really knows the full formula and that is the point....By keeping the process cloudy it will be easier to review / fix things after the fact at the end.  Remember this is the system that had Duq winning it all in the A-10...that was never going to happen.

In all systems, the number 1 factor is to win...I don't think margin of victory will be that important....Will it play a factor? ...maybe in seeding....maybe some big spread wins in the final 10 games might get you in if you are the last team out.  But that is not what this board is worried about....People want to know if we have a chance to make the tourney.

On my system, you need to be an A- team and you have about an 80% chance of getting into the Dance.  Right now we are a B team.... which gives us a 50-50 chance for a bid...an NIT bid. So we have  some work left to do. I think the A-10 is a 2 bid conference...Since the Bills have been in the  A-10,  the conference champ has always danced....This will be no different. We will be 1 bid if the conference champ and the tourney winner are the same...we could have more than 2 bids if we come up with a few A- teams....which will be hard to do if teams are closely matched and keep knocking each other off. Winning the conference championship is no small feat...it will take a lot of wins to do that...and the NCAA knows that...and will reward that....yes even to the A-10.

As for spreads????...If we won all the rest of our games by 3 pts ...we are in ...even if we don't get "full credit" for each win.

Bottom line ...Just win baby ...and the numbers will take care of themselves.

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1 minute ago, kshoe said:

It is true that you can't play really crappy teams and beat them by 3 points and expect your rankings to improve. To expect otherwise is insane. To further that point, while we are 4-0 in A-10 play, we haven't had an easy win yet and our rankings have dropped accordingly. 

The NET ABSOLUTELY cares about margin of victory (although they cap it at 10 points) but the NET also includes an efficiency statistic which is of course better if you win a game by 25 points instead of by 3 points. The Bills need to not only win games down the stretch but it would be really helpful if they played better and won the games convincingly. 

An at large bid is still very much in play so long as we go 15-3 or better in conference. It is even more in play if we don't win all 15 of those games by really close margins. Let's start blowing some teams out.

Don't think that is going to happen based upon what I have seen so far.

 

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4 minutes ago, kshoe said:

This simply isn't true. Our NET will sky-rocket if we go on the road and beat quality teams like Dayton and VCU.

What is your definition of sky rocketing?  We need to pick up 20 places. Very tough to do. 

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2 minutes ago, eastsidejoe said:

Don't think that is going to happen based upon what I have seen so far.

 

Probably not. If we play like we have the first 17 games we aren't good enough for the NCAA tournament and quite frankly don't deserve a bid. Hence our NET, Pomeroy and every other metric that says we aren't good enough. If we play like we have so far this year, we aren't going 12-2 down the stretch, we are going 9-5 (which is what Pomeroy predicts) or something like that.

But that is different than the argument some are making that we CAN'T make the NCAA as an at-large because the math won't allow it. The math definitely allows it, we just need to play better.

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We need for as many teams to break the top 125 plateau (home) and top 175 (away) as possible. You don't go down when you win those games. And when you win against top 100 (home) and top 150 (away), your NET ranking goes up. That's a rough approximation.

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Well, I fear we need to figure out a way to pick up 20 places.  I fear we don't have the depth needed to win 3 games in 3 days.  

Ford's decisions at the end of the Pitt game could be what cost us an NCAA tournament bid.

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2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

What is your definition of sky rocketing?  We need to pick up 20 places. Very tough to do. 

It is really hard to say how hard that is to do.  I have not seen any raw data about the Net.  What we see is the rank. There may not be much separating 40-63 but a huge gap from 30-40.... 

This is what the NCAA says goes into it.

 

game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

 

this is not the order of importance.  Margin is the fifth in order of importance, but net efficiency is either 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Regardless it it is still a black box, and the NCAA can pull out whatever they want from that.

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2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

What is your definition of sky rocketing?  We need to pick up 20 places. Very tough to do. 

Doesn't need to happen in one single game and I'm not aware of any sites that show day over day NET rankings of teams, but let's look at just yesterday:

Providence jumped from 98 to 85 based on a single HOME COURT victory over #47 Seton Hall. Are you saying a road win at #55 VCU couldn't improve our NET by 8-10 spots. Seems quite reasonable to me. 

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5 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Well, I fear we need to figure out a way to pick up 20 places.  I fear we don't have the depth needed to win 3 games in 3 days.  

Ford's decisions at the end of the Pitt game could be what cost us an NCAA tournament bid.

It is frustrating to look back on the close losses and play the what-if game. Obviously wins over Houston and Pitt and we'd be arguing about what seed Lunardi has us right now. But we should be somewhat honest with ourselves and realize we've had a ton of close games and have won more than our fair share. At the end of the day, we just need to play better. And something inside me feels like we really do have it in us to go on a run. Hope I'm right.

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5 minutes ago, kshoe said:

It is frustrating to look back on the close losses and play the what-if game. Obviously wins over Houston and Pitt and we'd be arguing about what seed Lunardi has us right now. But we should be somewhat honest with ourselves and realize we've had a ton of close games and have won more than our fair share. At the end of the day, we just need to play better. And something inside me feels like we really do have it in us to go on a run. Hope I'm right.

We have the inner and mental strength to get the wins, that's been a fact.  I think we will win the games we are supposed to win and a few more, it's the margin of victory that I have a problem with 

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22 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

It is really hard to say how hard that is to do.  I have not seen any raw data about the Net.  What we see is the rank. There may not be much separating 40-63 but a huge gap from 30-40.... 

This is what the NCAA says goes into it.

 

game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

 

this is not the order of importance.  Margin is the fifth in order of importance, but net efficiency is either 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Regardless it it is still a black box, and the NCAA can pull out whatever they want from that.

i'd be interested in knowing how they qualify efficiency.

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9 minutes ago, kshoe said:

It is frustrating to look back on the close losses and play the what-if game. Obviously wins over Houston and Pitt and we'd be arguing about what seed Lunardi has us right now. But we should be somewhat honest with ourselves and realize we've had a ton of close games and have won more than our fair share. At the end of the day, we just need to play better. And something inside me feels like we really do have it in us to go on a run. Hope I'm right.

True, the Houston and in particular Pitt games, were very winnable, BUT, we need to keep in mind that we escaped several games that could have gone the other way - The last two games for example, and even the UMass game was in doubt in the final minute, the guy on Seton Hall had a wide open 3 that could have won the game and we were fortunate to escape the Troy game with a win - that would have been a terrible early season loss. 

The most important thing from the last two games is that Goodwin FINALLY looks like the player most of us thought he would be this season. Bess can't carry the team by himself and we hopefully now have a two-headed monster leading the way. And French has been on the upswing since Gordon quit on the team.  I think the next player that needs to start stepping up is Foreman. He had some big games in conference play last year. His FG% is way down this year compared to last.

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Quote

 

 

34 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Ford's decisions at the end of the Pitt game could be what cost us an NCAA tournament bid.

No question. There's a time and place to make a point, that wasn't one of them.

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6 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i'd be interested in knowing how they qualify efficiency.

I can't speak to it's accuracy, but in the article that Cincibill posted they said this:

Efficiency - Net Efficiency. It’s (your points divided by your possessions) minus (your opponents’ points divided by your opponents’ possessions). “Possessions” are estimated by field goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus 0.475 times free throw attempts. Unlike KenPom rankings, this is not adjusted by quality of opponent. Every point against Mount Saint Mary’s counts!

https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-state-basketball/2018/12/12/18137613/ncaa-net-rankings-college-basketball-tournament-nc-state-acc

At the bottom of the article he talks about how important it is to run up the score, even beyond 10 points.

 

I also saw this article a week ago where Will Wade was complaining about the formula and how it encourages running up the score.

https://www.nola.com/lsu/2019/01/lsus-will-wade-on-the-net-rankings-their-formula-is-wrong.html

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Well, I fear we need to figure out a way to pick up 20 places.  I fear we don't have the depth needed to win 3 games in 3 days.  

Ford's decisions at the end of the Pitt game could be what cost us an NCAA tournament bid.

I think this squad can and should win the conference tournament.  Some team is going to win three in three days (or even four in four), and the Bills have the talent to do it.  Depth isn't the only factor.  The 2013 Missouri squad that lost to Norfolk State in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament had less depth than this year's Bills, and they won their final Big 12 Tournament.  Don't presume the Bills can't do it.

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26 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I think this squad can and should win the conference tournament.  Some team is going to win three in three days (or even four in four), and the Bills have the talent to do it.  Depth isn't the only factor.  The 2013 Missouri squad that lost to Norfolk State in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament had less depth than this year's Bills, and they won their final Big 12 Tournament.  Don't presume the Bills can't do it.

Honest to god it's never been this wide the gap of how hi or lo we can go this year. slight bummer since we were all we were all resoling our dance shoes with all the 3-4* guys we were signing but all things considered pretty much fun this year. If we lose second game in A-10 finals and split rest of games in total we would finish 21-12 still a disappointment but 2/3 of the mighty 351 would swap with us for sure. So that means we'd be 7-7 rest of regular season and end it at 11-7. Anything below that surely a bummer but man one more setback could make it worse than that. I think we are a better bet than most and certainly in our own recent history of getting the automatic bit this year.

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5 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I think this squad can and should win the conference tournament.  Some team is going to win three in three days (or even four in four), and the Bills have the talent to do it.  Depth isn't the only factor.  The 2013 Missouri squad that lost to Norfolk State in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament had less depth than this year's Bills, and they won their final Big 12 Tournament.  Don't presume the Bills can't do it.

I need to correct myself.  It was the 2012 squad.

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I honestly think we need to wait until we have played the better teams in this conference to get a grasp of where we are. The non con schedule went fairly well but we are a different team since CG left and that team has some growing to do. I don't think CG was the end all be all for this squad but i think roles have changed. Wiz  has us pretty solid at a B and our NET ranking seems just outside of contention without opportunities for much upward movement.  Why is it such an unpopular opinion that we are a good team and a good finish with a NIT run is a bad thing? I hope we move up to A- and I hope we somehow manage to survive conference play with only a loss or two but it just seems unlikely. that said... GO BILLS!!

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I am interested in what happens in the NET rankings today.  We went up 7 spots last night in the old RPI.

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10 hours ago, BJK said:

I honestly think we need to wait until we have played the better teams in this conference to get a grasp of where we are. The non con schedule went fairly well but we are a different team since CG left and that team has some growing to do. I don't think CG was the end all be all for this squad but i think roles have changed. Wiz  has us pretty solid at a B and our NET ranking seems just outside of contention without opportunities for much upward movement.  Why is it such an unpopular opinion that we are a good team and a good finish with a NIT run is a bad thing? I hope we move up to A- and I hope we somehow manage to survive conference play with only a loss or two but it just seems unlikely. that said... GO BILLS!!

If you continue to win games you will move upward as other teams lose. We still control our own destiny for an at large bid. 

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I think Kshoe summarized it perfectly, if we start playing like an NCAA caliber team, we will get the wins and winning margin needed to make it. 

Also, it wouldn’t hurt if some of our opponents (Butler, Seton Hall, Oregon State, even SIU) got hot. Big win by Butler last night that will likely help in today’s Net.

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14 minutes ago, NH said:

I think Kshoe summarized it perfectly, if we start playing like an NCAA caliber team, we will get the wins and winning margin needed to make it. 

Also, it wouldn’t hurt if some of our opponents (Butler, Seton Hall, Oregon State, even SIU) got hot. Big win by Butler last night that will likely help in today’s Net.

It just seems ridiculous that our margin of error cannot withstand one slip up.  

I knew that it was unfortunate the A-10 OOC performance was historically disappointing, but I do not think I fully appreciated that it would put us in a position where we have to just run the table.  

 

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Goal #1 is to win the regular season conference championship.  To me, that still means a lot.  If that comes with enough wins to get an at-large, so be it.

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I'm not really concerned about the rest of the season because we are undefeated since the birth of my wife and I's first child, aka slufan41 (how do I reserve that username??). She will be a spoiled fan as she'll get a sweet 16 appearance in the first year of her life. 

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