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12 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I'm not really concerned about the rest of the season because we are undefeated since the birth of my wife and I's first child, aka slufan41 (how do I reserve that username??). She will be a spoiled fan as she'll get a sweet 16 appearance in the first year of her life. 

Did you name her Carte'are? or Luis?

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15 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I'm not really concerned about the rest of the season because we are undefeated since the birth of my wife and I's first child, aka slufan41 (how do I reserve that username??). She will be a spoiled fan as she'll get a sweet 16 appearance in the first year of her life. 

congrats!  now your life really changes

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27 minutes ago, SShoe said:

Goal #1 is to win the regular season conference championship.  To me, that still means a lot.  If that comes with enough wins to get an at-large, so be it.

One nice thing about "just" winning a regular season conference title would be that it guarantees an NIT bid. In no way am I say the NIT should be a goal, but it's better than nothing.

Below is Pomeroy's model for the rest of the year. He still predicts us to be 13-5 in the A-10. Gotta find a way to turn 2 to 3 of those games into wins. I personally believe we need to be 8-0 in January to have a realistic chance given all the tough road games in February.

 image.png.55386342924d8eb34c5f1e2b32a634a8.png

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37 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I'm not really concerned about the rest of the season because we are undefeated since the birth of my wife and I's first child, aka slufan41 (how do I reserve that username??). She will be a spoiled fan as she'll get a sweet 16 appearance in the first year of her life. 

Congrats on your baby girl. 

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1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

I'm not really concerned about the rest of the season because we are undefeated since the birth of my wife and I's first child, aka slufan41 (how do I reserve that username??). She will be a spoiled fan as she'll get a sweet 16 appearance in the first year of her life. 

Congratulations. 

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1 hour ago, Littlebill said:

Did you name her Carte'are? or Luis?

good one.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

congrats!  now your life really changes

Yes it does. It starts with a period of months without much sleep (until the baby gets to sleep overnight). Yes, it changes and congratulations to the new father, brianstl.

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5 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes it does. It starts with a period of months without much sleep (until the baby gets to sleep overnight). Yes, it changes and congratulations to the new father, brianstl.

@brianstl, Old Guy has some news for you.

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1 hour ago, kshoe said:

One nice thing about "just" winning a regular season conference title would be that it guarantees an NIT bid. In no way am I say the NIT should be a goal, but it's better than nothing.

Below is Pomeroy's model for the rest of the year. He still predicts us to be 13-5 in the A-10. Gotta find a way to turn 2 to 3 of those games into wins. I personally believe we need to be 8-0 in January to have a realistic chance given all the tough road games in February.

 image.png.55386342924d8eb34c5f1e2b32a634a8.png

Am i reading this wrong? I only see 3 losses.

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My bad, it was sulfan13 who is the father, apologies to all. No medical confidentiality has been broken.

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

I am interested in what happens in the NET rankings today.  We went up 7 spots last night in the old RPI.

We stayed at 67.  VCU up 3 to 52, and Dayton fell 2 to 75.  Not enough upward movement yet for the A10 to get in the At Large territory of mid 40's.

Butler moved up 4 places to 48 with their road win over now 112 DePaul (who fell 10 places with the home loss).

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24 minutes ago, slusam said:

Am i reading this wrong? I only see 3 losses.

It's because even though his model picks us to win all but 3 individual games, when taken together, several of the individual games he has us picked to win are very close calls, and we're likely to lose a couple of those toss-ups/close games.

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1 hour ago, slusam said:

Am i reading this wrong? I only see 3 losses.

is the NIT  bid some kind of guarantee or you just assuming which I also assume?

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3 minutes ago, almaman said:

is the NIT  bid some kind of guarantee or you just assuming which I also assume?

any conference regular season winner that doesnt get an ncaa bid due to losing in their respective tourney gets an automatic bid to the nit tourney.   as far as i know that is the only autobids for the nit.  

there are 32 teams in the nit.   so using say 45 in the NET rankings as a cutoff, and assuming some really bad NET ranked teams from the lesser conferences get these auto bids, probably looking at 60's NET rank as the expected "givens" for an invite. anything above say 70 is going to depend on how many of those autobids to lesser teams get doled out.  so i would say right now if the season was to end today with the billikens having a 67 NET they arent exactly even looking at a number one seed in the NIT at this point.     

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

We stayed at 67.  VCU up 3 to 52, and Dayton fell 2 to 75.  Not enough upward movement yet for the A10 to get in the At Large territory of mid 40's.

Butler moved up 4 places to 48 with their road win over now 112 DePaul (who fell 10 places with the home loss).

Not great. We need Dayton to stay 75 or above to have a shot at a Q1 win

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2 hours ago, kshoe said:

One nice thing about "just" winning a regular season conference title would be that it guarantees an NIT bid. In no way am I say the NIT should be a goal, but it's better than nothing.

Below is Pomeroy's model for the rest of the year. He still predicts us to be 13-5 in the A-10. Gotta find a way to turn 2 to 3 of those games into wins. I personally believe we need to be 8-0 in January to have a realistic chance given all the tough road games in February.

 image.png.55386342924d8eb34c5f1e2b32a634a8.png

Looks like he has little faith in the bonnies game.  I feel very confident about the bonnies game.

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Is there any mechanism going on to assess accuracy in these crapshoots?

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54 minutes ago, almaman said:

So what NET is cutoff for assurance one might get in at large?

i say 40

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9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i say 40

I pretty much agree, 40 to 44 for non P5+BE, but 45-49 for P5+BE.  Two sets of rules, as we have seen in the past.  They will use some obscure game in Nov to cut out 'one of us'.

Syracuse will get in no matter what NET they end up with.  

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NET activity after Wednesday's games:

Minnesota nosedived from 48 to 63 after getting blown out at Illinois (5-12).

In the A10:

VCU 52, from 55;  SLU stayed at 67;  Davidson 72 from 75;  Dayton 75 from 73;  St. Joseph's (next SLU opponent) 162 from 163.

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1 hour ago, GBL_Bills said:

Not great. We need Dayton to stay 75 or above to have a shot at a Q1 win

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net-nitty-team

Scroll down to #67 for our Team Sheet.  Currently we are 1-2 in Q1, 2-1 in Q2, 2-1 in Q3, and 8-0 in Q4.  We absolutely have to run the table in Q3 and Q4 to have any hope of an At Large.  We need Oregon State to stay in Q2. I'm guessing our Fordham W will slip to Q4 before the season is over.

St Joe is sitting at 162, just outside of the Q3 cutoff of 160.  After they lose tomorrow they will drop, but perhaps a late season rally will pull them into Q3.  None of our other Q4 wins has a decent chance of moving up to Q3.

If SIU would rally, our Q3 loss might become a Q2 loss.  They are 10 spots out of what would be Q2.  A Pitt rally could push a Q2 loss to a Q1 loss.  Sounds weird hoping to improve a loss, but that would help.

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32 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I pretty much agree, 40 to 44 for non P5+BE, but 45-49 for P5+BE.  Two sets of rules, as we have seen in the past.  They will use some obscure game in Nov to cut out 'one of us'.

Syracuse will get in no matter what NET they end up with.  

Well they did beat Duke at Cameron 

 

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