NIT 32 A10 0

[Bay Area Billiken]

https://twitter.com/jfeinsteinbooks/status/1635291165997289473?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw

 

[David King]

13 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The findings are below.  These are facts, based on the metrics, not conspiracies.  Brace yourselves, on both sides of the divide, because one finding is beyond even what I expected.  

1.  Per the RPI, Saint Louis University would be in the NCAA Tournament, not the NIT field, as the second to last team into the NCAA, with RPI of 53.   

 

 

That finding, alone, is overwhelming proof that RPI is completely F’d up, and should not be considered when determining the NCAA Tournament seedings.

[David King]

13 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

You can draw your own conclusions.  But the conclusion is obvious to this observer.

Remedy:  SLU needs to schedule as best it can to the NET.  SLU could follow the Mizzou Model.  While that might not be palatable to elements of the fanbase, some good PR priming would appear to be in order.  

 

 

 

The “Mizzou Model”? Mizzou played 15 Quad 1 games, and 13 Quad 3 or 4 games. Billikens played a tougher than average non conference schedule and still only played 6 Quad 1 games, and 19 Quad 3 or 4 games.

It is impossible for the Bilikens to follow the “Mizzou Model” because the A 10 will never offer the Billikens the opportunity to play 14 Quad 1 conference games, like Mizzou did this season in the SEC.

It’s pretty clear what the Billikens need to do to make the NCAA Tournament; win more games, and by bigger margins.

[Slu let the dogs out?]

10 hours ago, Matty Light said:

Yeah, I think if you are going to take buy games on the road you would rather the play the teams from conferences with the highest SOS--mainly the Big 12 and Big 10. We should be asking Porter Moser for slot at Norman. Call Fred Hoiberg at Nebraska. I think we took a buy game at Minnesota a few years ago. We didn't win but it didn't hurt us and if you win some of those games you get a Quad 1 or 2 win which seems super important in this system. Plus the additional revenue has to be nice.

I tend to agree with you and @cheeseman . I’m on board with scheduling a bunch of cream puffs this upcoming season but still think there are some negatives that a road game to a place like Norman (as you suggest), etc could possibly offset. I assume the NET has no defined term for “blow out”. Would we need to win these road games by 15+ to arouse the NET rankings? 20+? Because we didn’t even beat any of our home cupcakes this past season by 20+ (Paul Quinn excluded). Aside from the obvious (play better hoops) what we really need is for the A10 to come back a lot stronger next season. I guess that’s also obvious. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

37 minutes ago, David King said:

The “Mizzou Model”? Mizzou played 15 Quad 1 games, and 13 Quad 3 or 4 games. Billikens played a tougher than average non conference schedule and still only played 6 Quad 1 games, and 19 Quad 3 or 4 games.

It is impossible for the Bilikens to follow the “Mizzou Model” because the A 10 will never offer the Billikens the opportunity to play 14 Quad 1 conference games, like Mizzou did this season in the SEC.

It’s pretty clear what the Billikens need to do to make the NCAA Tournament; win more games, and by bigger margins.

The Mizzou Model means its Betty Crocker award winning non-conference schedule, filled as it was with assorted cupcakes and home baking.  The Mizzou Model does not include  its SEC conference schedule. 
 

[slu72]

I don’t get caught up with the rating systems. I like the KISS system; Ws and Ls. 
So, keeping it simple our disappointing season came down to 6 games: 

1) not blow FTs and beat Auburn

2) Beat Boise St at home

3) Beat VCU at home

4) Not blow an 18 pt lead to SIUE

5 & 6) Beat UMass and Richmond

Would most agree if the results of these 6 were reversed we’d be dancing? I think we would be. 

[Billikenbooster]

14 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

Exactly!  Understanding the NIT and scheduling to maximize the chances of SLU getting into the NCAA needs to be what we do, regardless of who the head coach or AD is. Is it the only thing we need to do? Again, everything we do should be within the rules and geared towards improving the team.

It isnt scheduling. It’s winning. Of course schedule smartly, but just win.

All this hand wringing over schedule I dont get.

1-Find players that can hit 3’s from deep AND play defense.

2- Find guards with quickness to prevent dribble penetration.

3- Reverse the defensive decline.

4- Bring back the chain necklace for the player with the most rebounds.

5- Devise schemes that accentuate the players’ strengths, rather than the staff’s perception of the type of team they want. 
 

Im no coach, just an MBM with eyes. To me it’s plain in front of us. 
 

Sorry for the rant.

mhg

[JMM28]

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2023
 

Here’s a way you can play around with the various scenarios for all the metrics. 
 

Undefeated noncon with same mediocre conference/conference results shows a team squarely on the bubble.

Leave Auburn and Maryland as losses but flip the “should have won” conference games. Team squarely on the bubble. 

[WVBilliken]

20 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

They will have to accept that the schedule under the NET with its “efficiency” component must get easier. Cite Mizzou and its Betty Crocker Award non-conference schedule of a whole baking sheet of cupcakes. 

Mizzou doesn't have to play a tough out of conference because they play in a league with Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, etc.  The worst teams in the SEC would be fighting for a conference title in the A10.

[Bay Area Billiken]

5 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:

Mizzou doesn't have to play a tough out of conference because they play in a league with Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, etc.  The worst teams in the SEC would be fighting for a conference title in the A10.

True.

But for SLU, playing in the A10, under the NET with its all important “efficiency” component, to be “efficient,” blowing out non-conference cupcakes helps, at least until the NCAA/Power 5 overlords tweak the system yet again. 

Until then cupcakes are on sale, delicious treats. Get them while they last. 

 

[Lord Elrond]

 

19 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2023
 

Here’s a way you can play around with the various scenarios for all the metrics. 
 

Undefeated noncon with same mediocre conference/conference results shows a team squarely on the bubble.

Leave Auburn and Maryland as losses but flip the “should have won” conference games. Team squarely on the bubble. 

So what you are saying is that the only way in our conference that we can get to the dance is figure out how to win the conference, this trying to schedule or anything else is useless?

[billikenbill]

37 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

It isnt scheduling. It’s winning. Of course schedule smartly, but just win.

All this hand wringing over schedule I dont get.

1-Find players that can hit 3’s from deep AND play defense.

2- Find guards with quickness to prevent dribble penetration.

3- Reverse the defensive decline.

4- Bring back the chain necklace for the player with the most rebounds.

5- Devise schemes that accentuate the players’ strengths, rather than the staff’s perception of the type of team they want. 
 

Im no coach, just an MBM with eyes. To me it’s plain in front of us. 
 

Sorry for the rant.

mhg

Good rant. I’d add, find a big with actual offensive skills.

[Bay Area Billiken]

18 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

 

So what you are saying is that the only way in our conference that we can get to the dance is figure out how to win the conference, this trying to schedule or anything else is useless?

If that’s the case, then that is not for which SLU signed up when it joined (parked itself?) in the A10 in 2005. 

[David King]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The Mizzou Model means its Betty Crocker award winning non-conference schedule, filled as it was with assorted cupcakes and home baking.  The Mizzou Model does not include  its SEC conference schedule. 
 

I guess you could say that Fordham used the Mizzou Model? They played 10 non-conference Quad 3 or 4 games compared to Mizzou's 7. Fordham beat 8 of these teams by double digits compared to Mizzou's 4 double digit wins. 

Fordham finished 25-8 with a NET of 134. Billikens finished 21-12 with a NET of 99.

So much for the "Mizzou Model".

 

[CenHudDude]

2 hours ago, David King said:

The “Mizzou Model”? Mizzou played 15 Quad 1 games, and 13 Quad 3 or 4 games. Billikens played a tougher than average non conference schedule and still only played 6 Quad 1 games, and 19 Quad 3 or 4 games.

It is impossible for the Bilikens to follow the “Mizzou Model” because the A 10 will never offer the Billikens the opportunity to play 14 Quad 1 conference games, like Mizzou did this season in the SEC.

It’s pretty clear what the Billikens need to do to make the NCAA Tournament; win more games, and by bigger margins.

Or, if we were lucky enough, be in a conference with a bunch of quad 1 teams.  I know, I know - wishful thinking

[Bay Area Billiken]

15 minutes ago, David King said:

I guess you could say that Fordham used the Mizzou Model? They played 10 non-conference Quad 3 or 4 games compared to Mizzou's 7. Fordham beat 8 of these teams by double digits compared to Mizzou's 4 double digit wins. 

Fordham finished 25-8 with a NET of 134. Billikens finished 21-12 with a NET of 99.

So much for the "Mizzou Model".

 

Fordham played too extreme of a version of the Mizzou Model. Note the Mizzou Model did include a Win over Illinois.

[Lord Elrond]

Apparently we either need to get into the Big East, or we need to resign ourselves to the fact that we are in a one bid league.  

[Bay Area Billiken]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2023
 

Here’s a way you can play around with the various scenarios for all the metrics. 
 

Undefeated noncon with same mediocre conference/conference results shows a team squarely on the bubble.

Leave Auburn and Maryland as losses but flip the “should have won” conference games. Team squarely on the bubble. 

Thanks for posting this fascinating tool. As Howard Cosell would say, this tool “tells it like it is.”

[JMM28]

50 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

 

So what you are saying is that the only way in our conference that we can get to the dance is figure out how to win the conference, this trying to schedule or anything else is useless?

With the way everyone else performed, yes. 

For what its worth, if Dayton had gone undefeated in non-con, SLU's projected NET rises 5 spots. Take away a few of their bad conference losses, and SLU's projected NET rises 10 spots. 

If you extrapolate that and have the bottom feeders this year flipping a couple bad non-con losses, all the sudden you are back to the top A10 teams in that 50-60 range even with the losses in conference. 

[Slu let the dogs out?]

29 minutes ago, David King said:

I guess you could say that Fordham used the Mizzou Model? They played 10 non-conference Quad 3 or 4 games compared to Mizzou's 7. Fordham beat 8 of these teams by double digits compared to Mizzou's 4 double digit wins. 

Fordham finished 25-8 with a NET of 134. Billikens finished 21-12 with a NET of 99.

So much for the "Mizzou Model".

 

This is my concern with scheduling too many non-con nancy boys. Beating up on crappy teams but playing just two Q1 games (and losing both) isn't going to make any committee's socks roll up and down. 

Dominate the portal + Play better hoops + A10 resurgence = SLU will be dancing next season. 

[dlarry]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The Mizzou Model means its Betty Crocker award winning non-conference schedule, filled as it was with assorted cupcakes and home baking.  The Mizzou Model does not include  its SEC conference schedule. 
 

 

1 hour ago, WVBilliken said:

Mizzou doesn't have to play a tough out of conference because they play in a league with Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, etc.  The worst teams in the SEC would be fighting for a conference title in the A10.

The problem is that even with the ultra soft non conference schedule Mizzou ended up in the 40’s for SOS.

With the Bills tough non conference schedule they ended up in the 90s.

I don’t know what the best method is.

 

If you have a good team it shouldn’t matter. 
My best guess would be to try and load up on crappy P5 schools. That is much easier said than done.

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

36 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

Or, if we were lucky enough, be in a conference with a bunch of quad 1 teams.  I know, I know - wishful thinking

Yes, That would solve many of our issues. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

40 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

With the way everyone else performed, yes. 

For what its worth, if Dayton had gone undefeated in non-con, SLU's projected NET rises 5 spots. Take away a few of their bad conference losses, and SLU's projected NET rises 10 spots. 

If you extrapolate that and have the bottom feeders this year flipping a couple bad non-con losses, all the sudden you are back to the top A10 teams in that 50-60 range even with the losses in conference. 

Hopefully, someone in the A10 office is aware of this. 
However, even if they are aware, the NCAA and its Power 5 Overlords would tweak the NET yet again, move the goal posts. This has become akin to a game of cat and mouse. 
 

Plugging in that tool, on a first run, had SLU won the games it lost that it should have won, but lost the games it won that it should have lost, SLU would still be OUT. 
 

By winning those games it should have won but lost, and still beating Memphis, Providence and Auburn, while beating Fordham would SLU be an NCAA 10 Seed. Keep Fordham as a loss and SLU is an 11 seed.

This confirms my suspicion from months ago- There is scant margin for error for SLU in the A10. 

[almaman]

3 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The Mizzou Model means its Betty Crocker award winning non-conference schedule, filled as it was with assorted cupcakes and home baking.  The Mizzou Model does not include  its SEC conference schedule. 
 

MM is caused by SEC schedule.

[Bay Area Billiken]

I used the Torvik tool with these assumptions:  Keep the actual results with these, what i consider to be reasonable modifications:  Memphis Loss, Providence (N) Loss, Boise State Win, SIUe Win, @UMass Win and @Richmond Win.

That scenario per the Tool puts SLU IN the NCAA Tourney as a 13 Seed, with a 23-10 record overall, 14-4 in the A10.  Basically, my thought is SLU was -2 this season, slightly underachieving in terms of actual game results.

Conclusion:  For a SLU playing in the Atlantic 10, there is slim margin for error.  Torvik has SLU with final ranking of 101 (SLU's NET was 99).  SLU fell 2 games short of dancing.  It's not impossible getting to the Promised Land (NCAA) out of the A10, but it's a lot tougher path than what SLU's peer institutions face.

Ultimate Conclusion:  Coach Majerus, as he arose for a second straight week looking at the Atlantic Ocean, said it best:  "We need to get the hell out of this conference."  SLU needs to get in the Big East.  Win, Win, Win, leave behind Brooklyn, the curtains covering the upper deck at Barclays Center and the A10, and play in front of the bright lights at Madison Square Garden, where every youngster wants to grow up to play basketball.  It's the Big East.  Just Win Baby and then Just Get In Baby.