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Ratings and Rankings and Polls ...Oh My


The Wiz
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As I speak to fans and read the board I am reminded of Dorothy as she wanders through Oz in wonder and amazement but not really understanding what is going on. Talk of beating Eville by less than 30 will hurt our ratings as though this game was the only thing affecting our status. Most computer based rankings are living, breathing entities which change by the hour as games are being played.  To say that if we only(??) win by 18 we are going down is just not true.

Let me give you an example of how things work in the Land of Wizdom.  After the Murray St. game some one on the board asked me what our ranking was.  As many of you know , I like to give out grades because teams are bunched so closely together exact rankings are not that meaningful.  However , I stated that we were ranked 43 on my system.  But as we moved toward the Eville game we started to drop as the days went by , not because our game  with MSU was losing value but because other teams were playing and their numbers were improving.  Just prior to game time with Eville , we had dropped to 50th.  This morning we sit at 41. Did we improve ?   I would say we stayed pretty much stayed the same.  We were an A- team after the MSU game and all through the week. After the  Eville game we are still an A- team.

My computer looks at it this way...we did what we were supposed to do and because of that we have stayed the course.  I use the spreads to measure how we are doing as a team and right now we are doing as expected.  Later today, I will put up the Memphis report....It will be a very interesting outcome.  Stay tuned

gobillsgo likes this
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 I agree that rankings are fictional at this time in the season, it is the cumulative results obtained over enough games that makes the difference. Team Rankings in their numbers reflects the volatility that happens at the beginning of the season. This is perfectly understandable and totally correct. However, the actual results in numbers is cumulative for the season and every time someone is not producing in a game, the low numbers will remain in the cumulative accumulation of results for the season. No two games are likely to produce the exact same performance figures for every player. What counts is the median performance results for each player throughout the season.

So, someone does poorly in one game, this  is fine as long as he does not continue doing poorly in multiple other games later on in the season. Yuri had a 0.45 FG/FGA and 4.06 TOs per game for the whole 2021-2022 season. He had 0.428 FT/FGA and 0 TO in the Murray State game, which was fine and in line with his average shooting last season and much improved from last season in T0s. In the Evansville game his shooting went significantly down to 0.285 FT/FGA and 5 TOs which is back to his average for last season. Agree these numbers mean little as of now. We will see how the numbers fall for the Memphis game and other games afterwards.

If his numbers in the Memphis game fall in the same range as they did in the  Evansville game, our chances of winning will be lower, how much lower I do not know. I think both teams (SLU and Memphis) are closely matched, but still I expect the Vegas line will favor Memphis to win, but do not know by how much. In order to beat Memphis we will need our team, including Yuri, to have a very good shooting night.

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8 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Agree it makes absolutely no sense, it only shows my lack of knowledge as to when the coaches poll took place. My bad, I am into numbers and models much more  than I am into basketball polls or when they take place, it is the truth.

Dates r #s also

Fraz likes this
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17 hours ago, Old guy said:

If we had won by 30 or more against Evansville, as we could have, we would not have been snubbed last week.

Why pay attention to snub? Let them say what they want, it's their job to talk :)
And the team needs to continue to play their game and improve it, of course. But not because it was snubbed, but because the team wants to.

Old guy likes this
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A couple of interesting points after the big win last night.

Point #1...All 4 teams ( The Bills,  Md., Mia and Prov) in this weekend's tourney come in with an A- grade. Things will be very tight.

Point #2...Memphis, the morning after the loss, still comes in with a grade of A...better than any of the 4 teams in the tourney.  Of course we won't be playing at home but neither will these other teams.

Bottom line ....We beat a better team yesterday than either of the upcoming teams we will be playing this weekend and we didn't even play our best game. No reason why we can't win 2 games this weekend. The winner of this tourney will be the team that wants it the most.

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I really hope we sweep the tournament. I have a question for you Wiz. Do you know how many of the players in the Memphis team were players that had played for Memphis in the prior season, and how many came in from the portal? They have very few Freshmen and Sophs listed in their roster.

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22 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I really hope we sweep the tournament. I have a question for you Wiz. Do you know how many of the players in the Memphis team were players that had played for Memphis in the prior season, and how many came in from the portal? They have very few Freshmen and Sophs listed in their roster.

OG. you can look that up yourself not bothering Wiz with things like that .  With all your interest in various ranking and Vegas lines, surely you are familiar with the Top 144 website that will answer your question.

almaman, Fraz and slufanskip like this
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Status may have been the wrong choice of words.  Maybe availability or usage would have been better.  Maryland and whomever is next are two dexent opponents.  I sure would like to have Perkins for both at full strength but see that as wishful thinking now and may have underestimated his recovery time.  Back to back games will be interesting to watch.  

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