FWIW, Bracketologists.com has Dayton, of course, in as a 1-seed, Richmond as a 10-seed, and we're one of the first four out. The three possible opponents before we meet Dayton are all Q3 teams, so a win won't enhance our NET very much. A win over Dayton, of course, means a big up-spike in NET, but as you say, Roy, a loss in the championship game could knock us out, unless it's "just" another buzzer-beater loss a la the Dayton game.
So many variables, so little time. The simple solution is just win all three games.