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Transfer Watch - 2022


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1 minute ago, cgeldmacher said:

I was talking about a hypothetical mid major freshmen who has a decent year switching from his mid-major school where he gets $2,500 to a low level power conference school where he can get $10,000.  That's a switch that wouldn't have occurred in the past, but will start happening purely due to the money involved.

I guess my question is what do you consider a decent season?  Because the mid-major freshmen I know who had a decent season had to transfer down. 

Now if we're talking about a player who averaged 12 ppg, he's probably one of the 2 or 3 best freshmen in their current conference.  Those kinds of players transfer up all the time.  Our own Jake Barnett was such a player and that was way before the NIL

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The reason why the NCAA is inept is because they always lose in court.  Everything people want them to do to get control of college sports, the courts have told them they can't do it.  This goes all the way back to NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma in 1984, when the NCAA lost control of the broadcasting rights to football.  The NCAA makes a nice punching bag for people's frustrations, but they don't deserve the blame.  The courts and our lawmakers deserve the blame.

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12 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I guess my question is what do you consider a decent season?  Because the mid-major freshmen I know who had a decent season had to transfer down. 

Now if we're talking about a player who averaged 12 ppg, he's probably one of the 2 or 3 best freshmen in their current conference.  Those kinds of players transfer up all the time.  Our own Jake Barnett was such a player and that was way before the NIL

I wasn't really quantifying it, but I would say a decent season for a freshman who was just in high school the year before would be averaging 6 - 10 points a game.  Then a low level power conference team, who just lost kids it had due to transfer, notices the kid.  They scout game video and determine that he is slated to pick up more playing time next season for his mid major team and figure that he has the potential to turn into a 10 - 15 point a game guy.  They go after him as a transfer and their pitch is that they can get him more NIL money.  That's what I was thinking.

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3 hours ago, Old guy said:

I think you (plural) do not understand how government agencies work. They have to follow the applicable Code of Federal Regulations (State Regulations for the States, etc...) that just keeps on accumulating and growing in time. These regulations try to interpret and act upon whatever it is that Congress decides is the way to go. But congress and administration change in time and the CFR regs tend not to be reviewed or cleaned out. The result is a confusing jungle of at times directly conflicting regulations that the agencies have to follow and enforce. To complicate matters even more every agency has review and compliance sections that are supposed to ensure applicable the CFRs are followed.

The result is not pretty and certainly can be, and indeed is very confusing at times. I believe the agencies try to do the best they can to follow applicable CFRs, but CFR is a mess that gets messier with time and with the political winds blowing in whatever direction they blow as time passes and governments/administrations change.

 

Wow! Read about half of this a couple hours ago, and just woke up from a really good nap.

Thanks, Old Guy!

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8 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I wasn't really quantifying it, but I would say a decent season for a freshman who was just in high school the year before would be averaging 6 - 10 points a game.  Then a low level power conference team, who just lost kids it had due to transfer, notices the kid.  They scout game video and determine that he is slated to pick up more playing time next season for his mid major team and figure that he has the potential to turn into a 10 - 15 point a game guy.  They go after him as a transfer and their pitch is that they can get him more NIL money.  That's what I was thinking.

Why wouldn't they just continue grabbing guys who are already averaging 14+ ppg instead of rolling the dice on a player's potential?  That's what they do now.

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7 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Why wouldn't they just continue grabbing guys who are already averaging 14+ ppg instead of rolling the dice on a player's potential?  That's what they do now.

I don't think that the Nebraskas or the Mississippi States of the world are.  I think they will have NIL money and be wanting to get a guy they see has about to take the next step rather than a guy who has already shown poorly elsewhere and is taking a step down.  I do think that the unlimited free agency being created will do that.

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4 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I don't think that the Nebraskas or the Mississippi States of the world are.  I think they will have NIL money and be wanting to get a guy they see has about to take the next step rather than a guy who has already shown poorly elsewhere and is taking a step down.  I do think that the unlimited free agency being created will do that.

Sure they are.

https://cornhuskerswire.usatoday.com/2022/03/20/nebraska-basketball-lands-transfer-griesel/

Sam Griesel, formerly of North Dakota State, will be playing for the Huskers this upcoming season. The senior guard averaged 14.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 3.4 APG on 48.2% shooting.

https://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/sports/college/southern-miss/2022/07/01/tyler-stevenson-mississippi-state-basketball-transfers-southern-miss/7790927001/

Mississippi State basketball landed a commitment on Friday from Southern Miss transfer Tyler Stevenson. 

Stevenson played four seasons for the Golden Eagles, and was their leading scorer in each of the last two campaigns. 

A 6-foot-8 forward, Stevenson tallied 14.6 points per game during the 2021-22 campaign, adding 7.5 rebounds per contest as well. 

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1 hour ago, David King said:

Wow! Read about half of this a couple hours ago, and just woke up from a really good nap.

Thanks, Old Guy!

That is great! Just print my post and keep it on your bedside table. If you have one of those nights that you just cannot fall asleep, just read it again. Maybe it will work.

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21 hours ago, brianstl said:

The reason why the NCAA is inept is because they always lose in court.  Everything people want them to do to get control of college sports, the courts have told them they can't do it.  This goes all the way back to NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma in 1984, when the NCAA lost control of the broadcasting rights to football.  The NCAA makes a nice punching bag for people's frustrations, but they don't deserve the blame.  The courts and our lawmakers deserve the blame.

Yea, I get what you’re saying.  I’m not saying it’s an easy job, but they have not helped themselves with their decision making and policies the last 20 years or so. They signed off on making ncaa sports a big business in a sense (I was unbeatable with West Virginia @ ea sports ncaa football 2007).  Now it’s obviously out of control.

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

Yea, I get what you’re saying.  I’m not saying it’s an easy job, but they have not helped themselves with their decision making and policies the last 20 years or so. They signed off on making ncaa sports a big business in a sense (I was unbeatable with West Virginia @ ea sports ncaa football 2007).  Now it’s obviously out of control.

How exactly did they "sign off" in making NCAA sports a big business?  NCAA basketball has been a big business ever since Bird and Magic went at it in 1979 and immediately transformed the NBA.  I don't think it's an accident that the explosion in TV contracts coincided with the explosion of top 50 players in the 1980s.

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5 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

How exactly did they "sign off" in making NCAA sports a big business?  NCAA basketball has been a big business ever since Bird and Magic went at it in 1979 and immediately transformed the NBA.  I don't think it's an accident that the explosion in TV contracts coincided with the explosion of top 50 players in the 1980s.

What happened? Did they get more than 50 top 50 players?

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I think the main disconnect between the Dr. Holly Hills' post and 3star_recruit's post is in the way they think about what a "big business" is. I think 3 star has a lower level threshold to call something a "big business" than Dr. Holly Hills does. I tend to agree with Dr. Holly Hills in my way of thinking about what "big businesses" are, at least in terms of income.

One addition to the post above, NCAA is a private corporation. They do not publish their revenue, income, capitalization, or debt level. Therefore it is not possible to talk about their size from an objective point of view.

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17 hours ago, Old guy said:

I think the main disconnect between the Dr. Holly Hills' post and 3star_recruit's post is in the way they think about what a "big business" is. I think 3 star has a lower level threshold to call something a "big business" than Dr. Holly Hills does. I tend to agree with Dr. Holly Hills in my way of thinking about what "big businesses" are, at least in terms of income.

One addition to the post above, NCAA is a private corporation. They do not publish their revenue, income, capitalization, or debt level. Therefore it is not possible to talk about their size from an objective point of view.

The NCAA, as a non profit, is legally required to file a 990.  The 990 contains that information.

Here is the link to their most recent 990.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/440567264

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19 hours ago, brianstl said:

The NCAA, as a non profit, is legally required to file a 990.  The 990 contains that information.

Here is the link to their most recent 990.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/440567264

 

Thank you brianstl, very useful information.

Looking at their 990, the following is clear:

1. The NCAA 990 summaries show net profits or net losses per year. Looking over the last 5  990 summaries, it shows income that has gone from a top profit of $120 M (2017) to a largest loss of $451 M (2016).  Their revenue has gone from a top of $1.18 B (2019) to a bottom of $521 M (2020).

2. Their primary source of income comes from Program services, although in 2020 they reported 52% of their income came from "other sources."

This is not intended to be anything close to a full analysis of their finances. From my point of view, the NCAA is nowhere close to the "big business" designation. Their income and profitability, as reported in the 990 summaries, is pretty variable and unstable from year to year. Their top executives are amply compensated. The type of expenses they incur yearly are not clearly specified in their 990 summaries.

That is all I want to say about the NCAA as a business.

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