O.T. Conference Shuffle ( OU and Texas inquire about joining SEC)

[Lord Elrond]

17 hours ago, wgstl said:

Would be so dope for an actually good conf to have this geo proximity 

If you think about it, the OVC and the A10 have one thing in common, both one bid leagues…

[SluSignGuy]

 

[HoosierPal]

26 minutes ago, SluSignGuy said:

 

I certainly can agree with Coach D.  I used to be upset about the unregulated NIL and transfer portal messes.  But after what we saw last week with the destruction of the Pac 12, I don't care anymore.  Why should we put up guardrails on athletes when the conferences and schools are blatantly grabbing all the money they can, and pretty much trampling on their students.  If the schools and conferences are blindly focused on cash, why should the athletes be criticized for the same money grab?   Do these schools and conferences care about the well being of the student-athlete?  That's a big NO.  All they want is increasing funding of their Athletic Departments.  

[ACE]

The travel is absolutely ridiculous. Those Oregon/Maryland volleyball games are going to be great.

[BLIKNS]

All the flights will now will  be classrooms, Tudors ... Will give the student - athletes more time to study?

[Taj79]

I was flipping around the channels the other night and there on the ESPN regular networks was PILLOW FIGHTING.  I called Mrs Taj in to confirm I wasn't having a brain hemorrhage.  Two guys, with handles on pillows, trying to claim head shots on the other guy.  As long as networks pay for stupid stuff liek this, th emoney grab will go on.

[BLIKNS]

So do we want a Pac 4 - MWC merger?  If that takes away a conference's automatic bid  ,  another mid-major will get an extra bid, for sure, right?

[billiken_roy]

53 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

So do we want a Pac 4 - MWC merger?  If that takes away a conference's automatic bid  ,  another mid-major will get an extra bid, for sure, right?

hell no it doesnt give a mid major bid.   it gives another power conference 500 record school a bid.  guarantee you that.

[Lord Elrond]

36 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

hell no it doesnt give a mid major bid.   it gives another power conference 500 record school a bid.  guarantee you that.

That’s what I would bet on, another bid for one of the power conferences, nothing for the MWC, regardless of whether or not the survivors of the Pac12’s demise join them or not.

[Bay Area Billiken]

If the Pac-4 plucks 4 from the Mountain West (and 3 from the AAC), as opposed to merging the MW into the Pac (which is also being discussed), both the Pac and MW would keep their NCAA Auto Bids. 

[Cowboy II]

-while I don't see the leverage to do it, I would love to see the non P5/6 upset the apple cart by requiring a RULE that to get an at-large bid a team must be better than .500 in conf play

-I probably have a better chance to win Mega Millions than it happening

[HoosierPal]

40 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

If the Pac-4 plucks 4 from the Mountain West (and 3 from the AAC), as opposed to merging the MW into the Pac (which is also being discussed), both the Pac and MW would keep their NCAA Auto Bids. 

Any merger won’t be about NCAA March Madness auto  bids. It will be about CFP auto bids and selection criteria. If the PAC conference has standing as one of the auto bids for the CFP, and they retain it, they would be a likely survivor. 
 

if either conference lost the Hoop Auto Bid, the at large bid would very likely go with that now ‘exposed’ league champ. Example. San Diego State makes last years tourney with or without an auto bid. 

[brianstl]

38 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

If the Pac-4 plucks 4 from the Mountain West (and 3 from the AAC), as opposed to merging the MW into the Pac (which is also being discussed), both the Pac and MW would keep their NCAA Auto Bids. 

Why would any MWC or AAC team leave for the PAC?  Both of those conferences have higher guaranteed payouts than the PAC had on the table when they still had Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and ASU.  

[HoosierPal]

3 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Why would any MWC or AAC team leave for the PAC?  Both of those conferences have higher guaranteed payouts than the PAC had on the table when they still had Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and ASU.  

I read that the MWC media rights was $4 million per team and the AAC, just under $7 million per team, both annual. 

[JMM28]

9 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Why would any MWC or AAC team leave for the PAC?  Both of those conferences have higher guaranteed payouts than the PAC had on the table when they still had Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and ASU.  

The Pac is in 'its all over but the shouting' territory. The California schools screwed it up for everyone, as California is known to do. 

Maybe someone can buy the PAC name and rebrand like Overstock did with Bed Bath and Beyond. 

[brianstl]

Just now, HoosierPal said:

I read that the MWC media rights was $4 million per team. 

That is correct.  The PAC offer on the table was a total of $7 million per team guaranteed minus the production cost that the conference was responsible to pay.  That made the guaranteed money in the deal worth around $3.5 million or less per team.  It was a god awful deal and the reason why after running the actual numbers Friday morning the grant of rights deal fall apart and the five teams bolted.  The bigger numbers thrown around were based on what those programs viewed as unrealistic numbers of required PAC Apple TV packages that needed to be sold on top of the person paying for Apple TV.

[Bay Area Billiken]

54 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Why would any MWC or AAC team leave for the PAC?  Both of those conferences have higher guaranteed payouts than the PAC had on the table when they still had Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and ASU.  

1.  At this point, the Pac still retains the Power 5 automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, would need to add at least 2 members with certainty to keep that auto bid. If Stanford and Cal decide to go this route, the Pac is expected to add 4-7 more schools from the MW and AAC.  MW  is a Group of 5 conference, one of the top in the group, but still outside the Power 5, as is the AAC.

2. New Pac-8(11) TV (streaming) money, likely from Apple, is expected to triple ($15M) or at minumum double ($10M) the $5M in TV money in the MW.  The Bay Area (Stanford and Cal) is the 6th largest TV market.  Apple, based physically near Stanford, offered $25M floor to Pac-12(10) before the latest 6 bolted last Friday. 

3.  Being in the same conference as Cal and Stanford for the 3 Cal State's in the MW, in particular, but also whomever else in the MW and beyond gets chosen, is enticing in itself.  San Diego State was likely the #1 expansion candidate for the Pac-12(10), and that likely remains for the Pac 4.  

Both Stanford and Cal have Coast to Coast influential alumni, especially Stanford. Silicon Valley megabucks with ties to both, especially to Stanford, are not to be minimalized. To think the Pac is dead is wishful outside thinking.  If Stanford and Cal go elsewhere (Big Ten or ACC), then yes, the Pac would be extinct, but at this point in time the Pac still exists.  We'll probably know more as to where this is heading a week from today.

A good source re the Pac is Jon Wilner in the San Jose Mercury News.  The bolting 8 leave their NCAA Tourney Basketball units behind.  The Pac-12 in fiscal year '24 is expected to generate $500M in revenue.  There is money there to assist with the $34M without notice MW exit fees.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Stanford is located very near the HQ's of Google, Apple and Meta (Facebook). Stanford has a $37.8 Billion endowment.  Stanford will come out of this ok.

Sidebar- The last I read, Stanford was not allowing NIL, in any form, was forbidding its boosters from offering NIL.  

Cal is in a different position financially, has significant debt from the retrofit of Memorial Stadium, and related athletic facilities.  Cal will be getting "Calimony" payments from UCLA's Big Ten TV money.

[Bay Area Billiken]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1688627770987794433?s=20

While Stanford and Cal to the ACC still seems like a longshot, going by Jon Wilner's opinion, the conference situation remains very fluid.  If this happens, that would probably be the end of the Pac-12(4), with Oregon State and Washington State being the two left behind, perhaps Mountain West bound.  

Stanford does have a long time football relationship with pseudo-ACC Notre Dame, and Cal played football at Notre Dame last season, brought a large contingent of Old Blues to South Bend.

[SLU_Lax]

Of course the most likely scenario is that Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State are just gonna be left out to dry.  This is about money and driving revenue streams.  Those four schools would need to convince a conference that they make more money with them than without them.  It'll be a tough sell regardless of the size of the cities or numbers of alumni.  SLU has a lot of alumni in St. Louis, but only a small portion are loyal, steady SLU sports fans.  Stanford's best shot was the Big10 would want them for academic/research reasons (Big10 makes a lot of money doing government research).  The Big10 ship has almost certainly sailed (although never say never).

The Pac-12 was stripped for parts because they couldn't make enough money as a group.  Oregon and Washington are joining as lesser paid Big10 members.  The remaining members are in a pretty terrible spot athletically.  Stanford will be fine financially overall and of course has the more traditional view of student-athletes that I prefer.  I like the tree and will root for them, but they are in a bad spot athletically.  The other three are even worse off.

It sucks....but this is college sports now.

[JMM28]

2 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

1.  At this point, the Pac still retains the Power 5 automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, would need to add at least 2 members with certainty to keep that auto bid. If Stanford and Cal decide to go this route, the Pac is expected to add 4-7 more schools from the MW and AAC.  MW  is a Group of 5 conference, one of the top in the group, but still outside the Power 5, as is the AAC.

2. New Pac-8(11) TV (streaming) money, likely from Apple, is expected to triple ($15M) or at minumum double ($10M) the $5M in TV money in the MW.  The Bay Area (Stanford and Cal) is the 6th largest TV market.  Apple, based physically near Stanford, offered $25M floor to Pac-12(10) before the latest 6 bolted last Friday. 

3.  Being in the same conference as Cal and Stanford for the 3 Cal State's in the MW, in particular, but also whomever else in the MW and beyond gets chosen, is enticing in itself.  San Diego State was likely the #1 expansion candidate for the Pac-12(10), and that likely remains for the Pac 4.  

Both Stanford and Cal have Coast to Coast influential alumni, especially Stanford. Silicon Valley megabucks with ties to both, especially to Stanford, are not to be minimalized. To think the Pac is dead is wishful outside thinking.  If Stanford and Cal go elsewhere (Big Ten or ACC), then yes, the Pac would be extinct, but at this point in time the Pac still exists.  We'll probably know more as to where this is heading a week from today.

A good source re the Pac is Jon Wilner in the San Jose Mercury News.  The bolting 8 leave their NCAA Tourney Basketball units behind.  The Pac-12 in fiscal year '24 is expected to generate $500M in revenue.  There is money there to assist with the $34M without notice MW exit fees.

The PAC10 is dead. The name may live on but it will be without the abysmal leadership they have had over the last 5+ years. 

[SLU_Lax]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

The PAC10 is dead. The name may live on but it will be without the abysmal leadership they have had over the last 5+ years. 

How have I not seen this video?  I know the song and remember it well.   This is amazing. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

https://twitter.com/petethamel/status/1688690740895879168?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw

 

[HoosierPal]

56 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

https://twitter.com/petethamel/status/1688690740895879168?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw

 

Florida State wants out of the ACC.   If the ACC brought in a brainiac school like Stanford to bolster the mathletics of the conference rather than the athletics, the Seminoles would pay a ransom to get out.

[Bay Area Billiken]

7 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Any merger won’t be about NCAA March Madness auto  bids. It will be about CFP auto bids and selection criteria. If the PAC conference has standing as one of the auto bids for the CFP, and they retain it, they would be a likely survivor. 
 

if either conference lost the Hoop Auto Bid, the at large bid would very likely go with that now ‘exposed’ league champ. Example. San Diego State makes last years tourney with or without an auto bid. 

Actually the NCAA Tourney units from the Pac-12 members are still retained by the Pac-4, and are a consideration stated by the media, along with at least $25M in upcoming Pac-12 TV revenue from ESPN and Fox ending in the summer of '24.  The issue is available funds to assist the Mountain West schools potentially moving to the PAC with the steep MW exit fees. The two NCAA Tourney automatic bids, one from the PAC, the other from the MW, are cited in favoring the PAC taking some MW schools, while the MW remains in operation with its remaining schools. 

The PAC remains attractive while it still has its automatic berth in the CFP Playoff. 

However, Stanford and Cal are exploring their Power 5 options, if any, outside the Pac-4, including ACC and Big Ten.  Where they are heading is currently unknown.