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11 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

but i am not a math major. 

No $&*t

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3,138 U.S. deaths by today's count. Almost 20% within the past 24 hours. Remember when South Korea and the United States had their first cases on the same day? South Korea has had 158 deaths thus far. 

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A week ago on the 23rd, I read an article claiming that 500,000 people had the Coronavirus. It seemed a bit high, so I stress checked with basic analysis. Here it is for all of you:

593 deaths, with the average rate of death at 1%. So, as of the time these individuals contracted the disease, there were at least 50,000 people with the disease. Right? So, then I looked at how long it takes for this disease to kill. 21 days is listed in at least 1 source. However, I decided to use a more conservative 15 days as a nice guess for an average (if someone wants to look this up, feel free). Then I estimated the growth rate, which no one truly knows, though there is a lot of information thrown out and available. Unchecked, the virus could grow at >25% (doubling every 3 days). I felt like this was too high for my calculation, so I used 15%, which I have seen on the lower end of growth.  Sure enough, using my conservative calculations, I came up with 400,000. That is pretty scary. Using the higher numbers, the totals are too unbelievable.

Please let me know if something is obviously wrong with this approach.

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Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results.

There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted.

Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now.

AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and  done, the total of  dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is  wait and see now.

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30 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results.

There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted.

Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now.

AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and  done, the total of  dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is  wait and see now.

stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it????

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3 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it????

You are a crazy person. 

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5 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

You are a crazy person. 

You haven't read all the criticism Trump received for suggesting it was a potential help? He has been crucified by some for bringing it up. There has more than one study that has been hopeful.  Be fair.

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14 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it????

A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than pResident Covid-45 is ever right about anything.

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2 minutes ago, HenryB said:

You haven't read all the criticism Trump received for suggesting it was a potential help? He has been crucified by some for bringing it up. There has more than one study that has been hopeful.  Be fair.

I shouldn't have said that. you are correct - it was not productive. For the record I hope to high heaven Trump and this scientist are right. I would love to be back to normal ASAP. 

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1 minute ago, billikenbill said:

A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than President Covid-45 is ever right about anything.

He hasn't been right about ANYTHING....really? You sure are making the case for the who have been complaining about fake news.

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2 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Eff you. He’s an orange stain on humanity.

Keeping it real classy again I see. If comments like that aren't enough reason to close this thread then I don't know what is.

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I thought we were going to keep politics out of this  discussion. What does it really matter who was right or who was wrong? The important thing is to get this bug under control and to keep the death toll as low as possible. The faster we do this the better it will be for the economy and the people. To make clear what I would love to see happening as soon as possible, it goes like this: I'd love to see people being able to go back to work, and kids go back to school. I would love to see traffic in the street even with rush hours and all of that. I would love to go to my favorite restaurants and enjoy a nice steak and potatoes in some form. I would still love to see the  Bills ending the A10 tournament and going into the Dance, this year if at all possible. I would love to see the shows I had bought tickets for and refused a refund for when cancelled, choosing instead to give the money as a donation. I would love to be able to shake hands with my  friends, and to go to Church with no fear of exposure.

However this is achieved, it is fine with me. Let's get first things first instead of letting this sink into a universe of hate, recrimination, and blame finding. Let's put this episode in the rearview mirror.

 

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18 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than pResident Covid-45 is ever right about anything.

thanks for proving the hate the left has for our President....my goodness, you can't credit him with anything....you're probably part of the crowd that called him a racist for shutting down travel with China at the end of January.......

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/trump-slash-red-tape-to-find-coronavirus-drugs-137575

 

'Bad advice from the president': Trump touts unproven coronavirus drugs

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If this quine drug works then great but we have to understand that you do not start using a drug for another purpose without testing and making sure that you will not do more harm.  There have been plenty of examples where drug companies have tried to re purpose drugs for a new use and it has backfired.  The problem when Trump brought this up he was advocating using it without proper testing - in other words immediately. .  To do so is not prudent and just because someone picks the 100-1 odd horse to win and it does does not make him an expert bettor.  

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You people support a proven liar who lies about his lies. You promote a party and a right wing media that promotes division and hate. Drumpf is a proven crook who should’ve been locked up years ago.

If that’s what you like and support, then you’re no better than the leader you worship. That’s the last I have to say about it.

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4 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

If this quine drug works then great but we have to understand that you do not start using a drug for another purpose without testing and making sure that you will not do more harm.  There have been plenty of examples where drug companies have tried to re purpose drugs for a new use and it has backfired.  The problem when Trump brought this up he was advocating using it without proper testing - in other words immediately. .  To do so is not prudent and just because someone picks the 100-1 odd horse to win and it does does not make him an expert bettor.  

As the doctors on this board can attest, medicines are often prescribed off label. this is a common practice. Trump did not give this medicine to patients, he suggested that it showed promise and hoped it would work. He also at the same time said he could be wrong, but hoped he wasnt.

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results.

There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted.

Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now.

AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and  done, the total of  dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is  wait and see now.

Peak isn't coming for a while. You keep touting 26,000 dead as if it is a good or great number. It's not. The United States and South Korea had first cases on the same day. The responses since by both have been very telling. 

 

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14 minutes ago, courtside said:

Peak isn't coming for a while. You keep touting 26,000 dead as if it is a good or great number. It's not. The United States and South Korea had first cases on the same day. The responses since by both have been very telling. 

 

yet you seem unfazed by the 10's of thousands more that die each year from the flu.  

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27 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

thanks for proving the hate the left has for our President....my goodness, you can't credit him with anything....you're probably part of the crowd that called him a racist for shutting down travel with China at the end of January.......

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/trump-slash-red-tape-to-find-coronavirus-drugs-137575

 

'Bad advice from the president': Trump touts unproven coronavirus drugs

The problem a lot of people have with him is his approach. If this ends up leading to a vaccine or treatment, he'll personally take credit. If it doesn't, he'll point the finger and lie about ever touting it. 

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11 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

yet you seem unfazed by the 10's of thousands more that die each year from the flu.  

No, I am not unfazed. We have had an administrative, colossal failure of response to COVID-19. It did not need to be anywhere near as bad as it is getting and is going to get. I take issue with saying 26,000 U.S. dead, (not even mentioning globally) is a good thing or number. It isn't 

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It seems like some people on both sides are rooting for results that are best for their preferred political beliefs instead of what is best for the country.

 

 

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