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The Bills over St. B by 7


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6 hours ago, brownindians said:

Congratulations on last seasons Victory you were the better team and you showed it! (bs)  This years Billikens are like last years team but improved. I sure the Bonnies will bring you no contest. Your Guards are some of the Best on the League and your Big men match up with the best of them. Bottom line...Quoting the Wiz " We should have this game " (bs)

2020

Hello Brown Indian, good to hear from you. Your posts are always some of the most polite and nice that we get from fans of other teams. Are you going to be in St. Louis for the game? And to mention the Wiz, it may be a harder to win game for us than you are anticipating. All the best.

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A great game and a great crowd...not just a full house but fans who were applauding and cheering great play especially a  fine defensive effort with some spectacular offensive shots. 

Let's look at what happened...

 Let's keep St. Bs slash to ...40/30/ less FTM than us...This was the key to the game...the actual slash was...26 /39/84...on the surface it seems the results were mixed...we definitely beat the FG% but lost the 3P% and the FTM by 2 shots....However let's delve a little deeper into the slash...The Bonnies only shot 18% under the 2P% category.   In the 1st half, where the game was decided,  they shot 10%...2-20.  They had 1 less 2PM than 3PM.  Their 3 P% was more than double their 2P %....and the big one...we took 12% more shots then them and had 92% more FGM...Let's keep going ..we outscored them 30-8 in the paint....we had a complete shut down defense inside the arc....outstanding.

 Defense continues to hum and with this week's improvement, the Bills make the Defense Honor Roll....This game shows that the D Honor Roll was not a fluke.

Osunniyi is their inside guy ...Welch is their outside guy  and Lofton is both.  We need to hold this trio to 30 pts combined. ....Total combined pts...22pts including holding Osunniyi to 2 pts...shut him down completely.

St B has an A- grade in  TOs we need to protect the ball ...stay within 2 TOs of the Bonnies... We can be very good at protecting the ball ...this needs to be 1 of those games...It was ...we only gave up 10 TOs to the Bonnies 16...The TO differential was worth 12 extra points. We actually had only 6 TOs for the game until the final few minutes ...long after the game was decided ...and we got a bit careless.  This was another game decider.

We need to keep our FG% around 50%....Didn't need it as we had the shut down D...We shot about our average ...44% ...which was good considering we took a high number of 3s...23/ 3PA 

Win the reb battle ...We certainly did ...dominated the boards...43-32

We should have this game...The Bills are the better team...this game is ours to win ...if we want it bad enough...We did have this game and we were the better team and we did want it bad enough...The Bills made a statement tonight.

We have the big MO...momentum...Let's keep it going.

 

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

We should have this game...The Bills are the better team...this game is ours to win ...if we want it bad enough...We did have this game and we were the better team and we did want it bad enough...The Bills made a statement tonight.

@brownindians said that those first two statements were bogus; has he posted since the game to eat his crow?

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2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

What other fan board has such great pre-game and post-game analysis as this one? Thanks The Wiz for your work on this. With one or two odd exceptions, I think the greatest majority of us really appreciate it. 👍

Thanks, I appreciate it....sometimes I wonder if anyone reads anything other than the spread headline but I do know there are some who read everything. I write for those people.....and I write what I would be interested to know about.  While everybody is not a numbers nerd or a stat geek, mostly everybody who comes to the board comes for the same reason...they want to know what The Bills are doing   I try to do that not only by looking at the numbers but behind the numbers. Look for patterns that the average fan might miss. And then try to make it understandable whether it is with a grading system that turns abstract numbers( or Mysterious Evaluation Tools...MET) into grades that fans can put into perspective or maybe percentages  or probabilities.  I may say the Bills have a good chance to win but I usually will follow it up with saying we have a 61% chance to win. Sometimes I will convert those odds into a poker hand or a dice throw because fans are more familiar with those type of chances. 

As a long time Bills fan, I want to know the good and the bad...I want to know why and how  we won a game.  And do we have a chance to Dance ... but most of all I want to know the numbers.

Thanks for reading.

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57 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Hey Wiz, what are the Bills trending at after last night?

As expected , our overall grade ( B )  didn't change because we did what was expected..We added a little "juice"  as our scoring margin  was greater than the spread.(10+  pts ...a net gain of 3 over the expected 7). The rest of the points were marginal.  BUT our trending continues upward...We are now trending at A-. 

So what does all that mean?  The overall grade means ..we are not yet there ...we are not yet a Dancing partner...HOWEVER we are playing  currently at a Dance level. Had we played at this level for more of the season , we would have a bid .

As for the A-10...right now there is only 1 team that qualifies for the Dance...Dayton ..A+ & A+....no other team has at least an  A- overall...Three teams are trending at A- or better...Day ..A+...Rich...A and The Bills ...A-

We need to win 3 to assure a bid....2 wins (including a win over Day) would give us a 35% to 50% chance for a bid. Let's just take it all.

BTW....if we play like we did last night for the next 3 games...we will win the A-10 tourney.

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6 hours ago, billikenbill said:

What other fan board has such great pre-game and post-game analysis as this one? Thanks The Wiz for your work on this. With one or two odd exceptions, I think the greatest majority of us really appreciate it. 👍

Agreed. We are very lucking to have The Wiz. I've gotten to the point where I read the breakdown and am then able to follow the relevant stats in real time at the game. Thanks Wiz.

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5 hours ago, billikenbill said:

Especially if Weaver's threes rattle in rather than out.

He had to have 4 or 5 that were great shots that rattled out. Hopefully he’s feeling confident. If we can get him going, along with Perkins, with TJ, J-Good and Yuri (it seems like Yuri hits 1 late-in-the-shot-clock 3 every game) making the occasional 3, it would make things a lot easier. 

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310, speaking of Yuri, this isn't intended to downplay the outstanding performances of HF, JG, JP or TW, but I think the player that had the most impact on last night's victory was Yuri. He controlled the ball 50 % of the time and played great D on the Bonnies' leading scorer, but I think the most impactful thing he did was push the ball and the tempo in the 1st half when we built the lead.  I had the same thought while at the game but became even more convinced after watching the replay this morning.  He was flying up and down the court dropping dimes along the way.  I am amazed that he only had 7 assists, maybe because some of them (To Hargrove and French) were so outstanding. 

I know most of the team had great games, but on review I think Yuri might have been the most important.  How lucky will our shooters/scorers be the next few years with YC setting the table for them.  I, for one, underestimated the impact a true PG like Yuri would have on our team.  I'm looking forward to the next few years and him getting his FT % up to at least 75% and taking a few more shots each game.

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14 minutes ago, bauman said:

310, speaking of Yuri, this isn't intended to downplay the outstanding performances of HF, JG, JP or TW, but I think the player that had the most impact on last night's victory was Yuri. He controlled the ball 50 % of the time and played great D on the Bonnies' leading scorer, but I think the most impactful thing he did was push the ball and the tempo in the 1st half when we built the lead.  I had the same thought while at the game but became even more convinced after watching the replay this morning.  He was flying up and down the court dropping dimes along the way.  I am amazed that he only had 7 assists, maybe because some of them (To Hargrove and French) were so outstanding. 

I know most of the team had great games, but on review I think Yuri might have been the most important.  How lucky will our shooters/scorers be the next few years with YC setting the table for them.  I, for one, underestimated the impact a true PG like Yuri would have on our team.  I'm looking forward to the next few years and him getting his FT % up to at least 75% and taking a few more shots each game.

Absolutely! Yuri is as phenomenal last night. But for me, and maybe this is a little bit of sentimental bias, but last night’s player of the game was Tay. He came out shooting early (he could’ve had 25 last night with a little better luck), he made that incredible diving save to keep the ball in play near half court, which lead to a big bucket in the 1st half, and he took 2 charges in the 2nd half. That’s NOT to say you’re wrong, because Yuri was amazing last night. Pretty much everybody was amazing last night. But I just want to give a tip o’ the cap to Weaver on his senior night.

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4 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

Absolutely! Yuri is as phenomenal last night. But for me, and maybe this is a little bit of sentimental bias, but last night’s player of the game was Tay. He came out shooting early (he could’ve had 25 last night with a little better luck), he made that incredible diving save to keep the ball in play near half court, which lead to a big bucket in the 1st half, and he took 2 charges in the 2nd half. That’s NOT to say you’re wrong, because Yuri was amazing last night. Pretty much everybody was amazing last night. But I just want to give a tip o’ the cap to Weaver on his senior night.

310, you are right.  I need to go back and watch the game again to count the number of 3 pointers that went half-way in and came out, and his diving save was in a game sequence that brought me out of my seat!  What a great night for him to have with his family there watching and 9000+ in the arena cheering him on.  It had to give his Mom goosebumps!

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Just now, bauman said:

310, you are right.  I need to go back and watch the game again to count the number of 3 pointers that went half-way in and came out, and his diving save was in a game sequence that brought me out of my seat!  What a great night for him to have with his family there watching and 9000+ in the arena cheering him on.  It had to give his Mom goosebumps!

Yeah. And if I’m not mistaken, the 2 charges he took were within a few minutes of each other in the 2nd half. Hopefully that game can get his confidence sky high going into Brooklyn. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a big few games in Brooklyn. Seems like he’s finally getting back to being 100% and trusting his stroke again. If he can get hot too...look out!

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6 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

Yeah. And if I’m not mistaken, the 2 charges he took were within a few minutes of each other in the 2nd half. Hopefully that game can get his confidence sky high going into Brooklyn. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a big few games in Brooklyn. Seems like he’s finally getting back to being 100% and trusting his stroke again. If he can get hot too...look out!

You are right,  I forgot about the two charges, although I think he was moving one one of them and got lucky with the call.  Unlike DJ, Tay is not afraid to put up a 3 which could be really helpful in Brooklyn.

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1 hour ago, Reinert310 said:

Absolutely! Yuri is as phenomenal last night. But for me, and maybe this is a little bit of sentimental bias, but last night’s player of the game was Tay. He came out shooting early (he could’ve had 25 last night with a little better luck), he made that incredible diving save to keep the ball in play near half court, which lead to a big bucket in the 1st half, and he took 2 charges in the 2nd half. That’s NOT to say you’re wrong, because Yuri was amazing last night. Pretty much everybody was amazing last night. But I just want to give a tip o’ the cap to Weaver on his senior night.

That diving play was excellent and helped continue the run that broke the game open. Too bad he barely missed 3-4 threes as if those go in he has a monster game. 

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Everybody is playing well.  Last night was the culmination of a season's journey .... finding out who does what best, getting some guys educated in D1 ball, following the Goodwin/French lead and buying into team defense.  The last three games have been dominant DEFENSIVE showings, amplified by the fact that Mason, Bonaventure and Rhode Island (yes Rhode Island) all have offensive liabilities that we exploited.  

I don't expect to see the same Bonaventure team come Friday, playing our next game against the same opponent will be tough.  Schmidt will concoct something but he'll have less than 24 hours to prep for and play that game.... if they win Thursday.

The closing stretch of this season could not have gone any better.

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