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The Bills over St. B by 7


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Although the win over GM didn't help our numbers much , it was an important win nonetheless. It keeps us in the hunt for the double bye. Here is what the next couple of  days look like..

Rich over Duq by 2 ....Rich 54% chance to win

RI over UMass by 3...RI  57% chance to win

Looks promising for Rich to take out Duq ( to keep us on track for the 4th place  double bye)...but far from a sure thing.

Let's see what things look like for The Bills....

We are still a B team as we have been most of the season. ...currently trending at B+....We need to get to B+ overall to have a chance to Dance.....St. B is a B- team playing at C+...Translated ...we are slightly better than them overall but currently playing at a much higher rate ...thus the 7 pt spread.  We should have this game but there are some issues.

Let's take a look and see what's happening...

..............................SLU.........................St. B............................................................SLU..................................St. B

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+...........................D+.............................................................B+_.....................................B-

FG%.........................B.............................C+..............................................................A-......................................B-

3Pt%........................C+...........................C+.............................................................B-......................................C

FT%.........................F-... WITN................B.. .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..............................B-...............................................................B.....................................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse).......UP ....Def PPG.....Def FG%...Def Reb....DOWN.....none

Report card notes..We have the better offense  and the edge on Def.....Another bad FT game (44%) keeps us in the cellar....Meanwhile, Defense continues to hum and with this week's improvement, the Bills make the Defense Honor Roll.  We are not that far away on offense from the Off H Roll sans FTs...I think Jimerson gets us on the OHR next year.....

 Bills  Off Reb...A+...16th  ITN.....down

Assts...Y Collins....39th.....down

Rebs...Goodwin...20th....French..29th......down  and down

Off Reb....French ...26th...Goodwin...33rd...down and up

Def reb......Goodwin.....36th ....French ...51st.....down and down

Stls......Goodwin...28th ...up

Blks.....French....18th....up

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...15th and French  43nd......up  &  down

FG%...Osunniyi...27th

Assts...Lofton...19th

Injury report...

Jacobs...G ...3/4/20....Out indefinitely...Suspension...Suspended for an undetermined amount of time for violating team rules. ..

WWN2D2W...Osunniyi is their inside guy ...Welch is their outside guy  and Lofton is both.  We need to hold this trio to 30 pts combined. Let's keep St. Bs slash to ...40/30/ less FTM than us....We need to keep our FG% around 50%...Win the reb battle . What could go wrong this game? ...TOs... St B has an A- grade in  TOs we need to protect the ball ...stay within 2 TOs of the Bonnies...a TO deficit of 5 or more would be worrisome.  In addition to the 3 players mentioned above English can be a scoring threat.  So St. B has a number of weapons.

Bottom line...We should have this game...there are some variables that could make the came a nail biter...as mention above the TO issue ...we had 16 TOs against Mason in the last game...that won't cut it in this game. We can be very good at protecting the ball ...this needs to be 1 of those games. Another unknown is Jacobs...Will he play and if so how effective will he be?  If you checked the report card , you can see that we have been great on Def...we need to flash that D on Sat....  Again , The Bills are the better team...this game is ours to win ...if we want it bad enough....Go Bills. 

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1 hour ago, Fraz42 said:

I’m not sure which team rule violation comes with an indefinite suspension 

I'm pretty sure that just means the Wiz's source does not know when Jacobs will be back.  It does not mean that he is actually suspended "indefinitely" / long term.

Ford said on the radio he wasn't sure if Jacobs would be back.  That tells me that Jacobs needed to do certain things to be able to play again and he hadn't fulfilled all of the requirements yet as of the interview, but potentially still could before the game.

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Scouting personnel:  I don't know who I have less respect for, the Bonnies or Duquesne.  I'll go with the Bonnies since the Dukes beat us twice.  Trying to learn lessons.

The Bonnies are much like Duquesne in that the have a ball-control point (Lofton) who controls the ball just as much as Carry does for Duquesne.  Which means a lot riding on Collins' and Weaver's defense.  Lofton leads in scoring (14.3 ppg) and assists (A10 leading 6.1 apg).  He plays 38.4 mpg so there is no backup PG on the roster.  They also have a shot-blocker (Osunniyi) who, much like Hughes at Duquesne, is really an after-thought in the offensive flow.  Luckily, they don't have a Marcus Weather clone at power forward.  Osunniyi will fill the lane, look for putbacks, and get his points doing the dirty work.  He won't stray from the lane so Jimmy Bell can negate that some down low.

At PF, they start a freshman in 6'8"Justin Winston who averages 8.8 ppg.  I like French's stance in that battle.  Winston is a nice athlete but has a way to go for consistency.  Backup is Bobby Planutis, a 6'8" transfer in his first year coming in from Mount St. Marys, Md.  Planutis is more a stretch four ---- although Winston has launched almost three threes per game to Planutis' two pg.  

They have three other guards ---- Dominick Welch, Jaren English and Alejandro Vasquez --- with 62% of Welch's FGA coming from three point land.  English starts with Vasquez first off the bench.  Welch is 6'5", English 6'4" andVasquez 6'3".  So they are all equally tall.  Senior Amadi Ipkeze is also on the bench but adds little more than five fouls to give.

Schmidt has mostly employed a hybrid, trick zone defense in the games I have seen.  It's more like a 2-3 zone with Osunniyi in the middle of the '3' and the idea seems to be to allow entry to the foul line where Osunniyi blocks everything sent in there.  The wings then leak out, expecting the block or the rebound to initiate these run outs.  This helps given the Wiz's noted offensive grade of D+;  in a half court game, the Bonnies are challenged.  English has come on to average 11.8 ppg; Vasquez is at 6.6 ppg.  Lofton or Welch has led them in scoring in 19 of their 30 games.

Given that I have disrespected Duquesne so much and they beat us twice, couple with the fact that the Bonnies look a lot like Duquesne sans Weathers, and that the Bonnies and Schmidt drive us crazy every contest, I expect this game will be a battle of wills to the end.  As a team, the Bonnies shoot 73.1% from the line with Lofton hitting at 80.4% and Welch at 76.8%.  We don't want it coming to that at the end especially with the ball always in Lofton's hands.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

Looks like the game will be on Fox Sports Midwest. On the ESPN app it will usually say if the game will be broadcast on ESPN+, however it currently does not show that. Would be a bummer considering this is an important game!

I think it is on that Stadium streaming channel

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23 minutes ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

Looks like the game will be on Fox Sports Midwest. On the ESPN app it will usually say if the game will be broadcast on ESPN+, however it currently does not show that. Would be a bummer considering this is an important game!

The game is on Stadium, and being picked up by Fox Sports Midwest.

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4 hours ago, Billiken Rich said:

Jacobs out “indefinitely?”

Not doubting you, but where did this come from.  Nothing from Stu nor Chapley on their feeds.

Repeating what Coach said yesterday, Jacobs "may not play on Saturday, but he will be back".  That does not contradict with what you posted.

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Sagarin has SLU over the Bonnies by 7.79, rounded off to 8 points.  

In Friday's big game, Sagarin has Richmond at Duquesne (game is at cavernous PPG Paints Arena) as rounded off to Even, Richmond by a scant .39 point.  CBS Sports has Richmond by 1, with o144.5.  This is an absolutely huge game for both teams, and for SLU and Billiken Nation monitoring from afar.  Usually BAB would root for the fellow Catholic school, but not today.

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Congratulations on last seasons Victory you were the better team and you showed it! (bs)  This years Billikens are like last years team but improved. I sure the Bonnies will bring you no contest. Your Guards are some of the Best on the League and your Big men match up with the best of them. Bottom line...Quoting the Wiz " We should have this game " (bs)

2020

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4 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Not doubting you, but where did this come from.  Nothing from Stu nor Chapley on their feeds.

Repeating what Coach said yesterday, Jacobs "may not play on Saturday, but he will be back".  That does not contradict with what you posted.

One of the sports services I use to collect data for my computer program has an official injury report gathered from sources at each school. This is what was reported on Jacobs as of 3/4/2020..  This injury data is also used by sports books across the country.  If anything, the sport service under reports injuries  as a school sometimes chooses to not release the info for a variety of reasons.  Hankton has not been listed on the report even though he has had a number of issues this year.

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7 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU is 11-13 all-time vs. St. Bona, had lost 9 straight prior to the glorious 55-53 Win over the Bonnies in the A10 Tourney Championship Game last March in Brooklyn.

 

 

Did we actually lose 9 straight to these guys?

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