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The Wiz

Belmont over The Bills by 4

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So this will be a little different than the HiP game.  HiP was one of the worst shooting teams in the Div 1....Bel is one of the best.  HiP, overall,  was an F+ team....Bel is an A- ....We are currently at B-  (where we were at the start of the season.)  There will be no room for error in this game. This could be the game where our FT shooting comes up and bites us.....ie  a close game where a few missed FT shots are the difference in the game. Bad 3P defense could also haunt us. This could be one of the best shooting teams we see this year. ...which leads to the question ...Do we even have a chance against this team? The answer is not only yes,  but we could win the game.

Let's see what we are dealing with...

..............................SLU...........................Bel.............................................SLU...................................Bel

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................B-................................A...............................................C+...................................C-

FG%..........................B+...............................B+......................................... ..C+...................................D+

3Pt%..........................B................................B+.............................................F.+....................................D

FT%...........................F-...4th worst ITN......C+.............................................................................................

Reb............................C+...............................B-..............................................C.....................................C-

 

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Change from last game....Up ..Reb....PPG against...3P% def......... Down....  .PPG.....3P%...FT % (down from 7th worst to 4th worst ITN)...Opp reb

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...44th

Assts...Collins....6th

Blks.....French....40th

PPG....Kunkel...31st

Assts....Murphy...50th

Reb....Murphy ...60th

Stls...Murphy ...44th

Blks....Muszynski...63rd

As you can see  by the ITN stats we will have our hands full. So what's the secret to winning.    Bel doesn't play defense...there defense is worse than ours. There philosophy is ...defense-- we don't care....we will win by outscoring you.   Bel is currently averaging 86 pts a game. ....So we have 2 choices to win the game ...plan on scoring 87 pts (unlikely ) or to slow them down with some D and hit some shots they will give us.

WWN2D2W....Stop Kunkel and Muszynski...hold them to less than 30 pts combined.  Hold Murphy to 7 rebs. Match or better Bel on TOs....if we have 16+ TOs again , we lose.   Protect the ball.  We need to beat them on the boards..... We need to slash at 49 / 36 / 64. 

Bottom line. ...I mentioned in another thread , we will play better this game  because we seem to play to the competition...good or bad.  In order to win , we don't need to play better, we need to play our best.

Let's ring the Bel...Go Bills

 

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A good start to winning this game is at least starting toe to toe with the scoring at the beginning of each half.  SH started off 10-0 in the first half and ran off 7 in the beginning of the second half.  When playing any good team you cannot come back from that especially with the way our defense has been playing.

We need this win at home it will be our first quality win, get it done guys.

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So far so good, being a fan means hoping the best for your team. Again, as I did with the Seton Hall game, I think SLU can win (which does not mean they will). So, Go Bills!

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

So far so good, being a fan means hoping the best for your team. Again, as I did with the Seton Hall game, I think SLU can win (which does not mean they will). So, Go Bills!

I took a break from the Kool Aid this week, but a win Saturday will have me chugging again and I’ll be flying high when we go to Boston and smash BC!

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I really hope that Ford coaches the guys to stop gambling on defense..  Just solid defense against Belmont with our guys who are bigger and stronger seems to be the best defense to employ.  If we run more than 2 possessions of the 1-3-1 trap stuff I will be perplexed.  Our 3pt defense being at an F+ is very uncharacteristic of us and it would be a really good game to get back to Billiken defense and making every 3 pointer a difficult shot.  

I think that aspect alone will be the difference in the game.  

 

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18 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

I really hope that Ford coaches the guys to stop gambling on defense..  Just solid defense against Belmont with our guys who are bigger and stronger seems to be the best defense to employ.  If we run more than 2 possessions of the 1-3-1 trap stuff I will be perplexed.  Our 3pt defense being at an F+ is very uncharacteristic of us and it would be a really good game to get back to Billiken defense and making every 3 pointer a difficult shot.  

I think that aspect alone will be the difference in the game.  

 

-CFord has taken timeouts and yanked players from games because they are doing this gambling which leads me to think it is something being practiced and then not brought to the game

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i disagree that our defense problem is "gambling" for steals and such.   the problem is taking time off on defense or not showing the awareness of the current situation to rotate and cover accordingly.   

if a player needs a rest, they need to come out and get such and coach ford would be happy to comply and then get back in the game.   that's what depth is for.  

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5 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Good news and bad news for us is we have no consistent scorers so they cant focus on one player. 

Anyone can step up this Saturday

goodwin has been double digit scoring in 4 out of 5 games.   that's pretty consistent imo.  

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25 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

goodwin has been double digit scoring in 4 out of 5 games.   that's pretty consistent imo.  

Goodwin puts in numbers but I don't think hes a guy teams would double up or focus on imo

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7 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Goodwin puts in numbers but I don't think hes a guy teams would double up or focus on imo

really?  considering he is a triple double threat every game, i would think teams would focus on him.  that kind of across the board production is what wins games imo.   just what is an example of a "focus" player?   

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

really?  considering he is a triple double threat every game, i would think teams would focus on him.  that kind of across the board production is what wins games imo.   just what is an example of a "focus" player?   

Powell on Seton Hall. :D

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2 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

Powell on Seton Hall. :D

so unless the player on the other team is a potential first team all american the coach needed focus on any particular player?   

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

goodwin has been double digit scoring in 4 out of 5 games.   that's pretty consistent imo.  

I think Goodwin is certainly a consistent contributor at this point and one of the better players in the league, but I am not sure he is a guy a defense would necessarily need to key in on. Certainly scout him individually and figure out who you want matched up on him, but I don't think you are game planning him beyond that. With our starting group, I think the guy you likely key in on would be French. 

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4 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

I think Goodwin is certainly a consistent contributor at this point and one of the better players in the league, but I am not sure he is a guy a defense would necessarily need to key in on. Certainly scout him individually and figure out who you want matched up on him, but I don't think you are game planning him beyond that. With our starting group, I think the guy you likely key in on would be French. 

Hey, @The Wiz, with regard to this debate... in your pre-game analyses, you always have the WWN2D2W section, which tends to include players on the opposing teams for us to focus on. Curious what a "W[They]N2D2W" would look like against the Bills? 

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1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Good news and bad news for us is we have no consistent scorers so they cant focus on one player.

NEWS FLASH:  Belmont with double French in the post.  This will be a focus of Belmont.  [Revolutionary approach don't you think?]

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5 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

I think Goodwin is certainly a consistent contributor at this point and one of the better players in the league, but I am not sure he is a guy a defense would necessarily need to key in on. Certainly scout him individually and figure out who you want matched up on him, but I don't think you are game planning him beyond that. With our starting group, I think the guy you likely key in on would be French. 

keep goodwin from 3 putback offense rebounds and 3 drives to the basket for layups = a 12 point handicap.   you can almost bank on goodwin doing at least that every game.   i believe as we get deeper in the schedule we will see teams key on goodwin to stop exactly that make him pull up and shoot.   keep him from getting rebounds.     

with french, i would just fight to keep his back to the basket and more than three feet way.   french would undoubtedly resort to that jump hook that he rarely makes.   if the opponent has the physical guy to push back on the man amongst boys french, he can be stopped.   

that said, the fact is, both french and goodwin are showing they are the heart and soul of this team and notch above the rest of the billikens.  teams indeed will key on both.  

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32 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

keep goodwin from 3 putback offense rebounds and 3 drives to the basket for layups = a 12 point handicap.   you can almost bank on goodwin doing at least that every game.   i believe as we get deeper in the schedule we will see teams key on goodwin to stop exactly that make him pull up and shoot.   keep him from getting rebounds.     

with french, i would just fight to keep his back to the basket and more than three feet way.   french would undoubtedly resort to that jump hook that he rarely makes.   if the opponent has the physical guy to push back on the man amongst boys french, he can be stopped.   

that said, the fact is, both french and goodwin are showing they are the heart and soul of this team and notch above the rest of the billikens.  teams indeed will key on both.  

I think we are just looking at it differently (and maybe would be arguing semantics) because I completely agree with your evaluations. So I think we just disagree with how we would actually game plan to do those things. I would note that I am undefeated* as a coach, so with no losses my opinion is strong to quite strong.

*no wins either

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gotta think ford plays uptempo as much as possible due to Belmont's bench or lack thereof.  Belmont really only plays 7, while it looks like they are deeper than that, they've had such big leads that a lot of players have gotten minutes.  Also, believe he will play uptempo more since typically fatigue effects outside shooting.

 

They have a 6'2 guard who averages 9.4 boards a game, but im sure he hasn't gone against very many other guards who are just as able if not better. Hope he gets frustrated.

 

I really worry about their center. 6'11 who is shooting 44% from deep. luckily he doesn't shoot a lot, but hes capable.  Hes not too active on the boards so this should be a good match up with Bell. 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, wgstl said:

gotta think ford plays uptempo as much as possible due to Belmont's bench or lack thereof.  Belmont really only plays 7, while it looks like they are deeper than that, they've had such big leads that a lot of players have gotten minutes.  Also, believe he will play uptempo more since typically fatigue effects outside shooting.

 

They have a 6'2 guard who averages 9.4 boards a game, but im sure he hasn't gone against very many other guards who are just as able if not better. Hope he gets frustrated.

 

I really worry about their center. 6'11 who is shooting 44% from deep. luckily he doesn't shoot a lot, but hes capable.  Hes not too active on the boards so this should be a good match up with Bell. 

 

 

 

The major problem we face with Muszynski is his skill level in the paint. Once he gets going he's almost unguardable down there. 

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1 hour ago, TheChosenOne said:

 I would note that I am undefeated* as a coach, so with no losses my opinion is strong to quite strong.

*no wins either

well i cannot make that undefeated claim.   however i will say my coaching history is a summer of select 4th grade girls and i did will half of the games.  😄

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

keep goodwin from 3 putback offense rebounds and 3 drives to the basket for layups = a 12 point handicap.   you can almost bank on goodwin doing at least that every game.   i believe as we get deeper in the schedule we will see teams key on goodwin to stop exactly that make him pull up and shoot.   keep him from getting rebounds.     

with french, i would just fight to keep his back to the basket and more than three feet way.   french would undoubtedly resort to that jump hook that he rarely makes.   if the opponent has the physical guy to push back on the man amongst boys french, he can be stopped.   

that said, the fact is, both french and goodwin are showing they are the heart and soul of this team and notch above the rest of the billikens.  teams indeed will key on both.  

goodwin does his best work without the ball in his hands, that is what makes him so difficult to defend...

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52 minutes ago, wgstl said:

gotta think ford plays uptempo as much as possible due to Belmont's bench or lack thereof.  Belmont really only plays 7, while it looks like they are deeper than that, they've had such big leads that a lot of players have gotten minutes.  Also, believe he will play uptempo more since typically fatigue effects outside shooting.

 

while ford is playing 10+ a game now, i believe before the season is over he will slim that rotation down.   most teams only play 7-8 players for the most part.   much easier to manage plus there is normally a significant break in effectiveness with most teams that makes it sensible to limit the number of primary players. 

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17 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

goodwin does his best work without the ball in his hands, that is what makes him so difficult to defend...

and a blast to watch.

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This is interesting, Teamrankings just published the vegas inspired expected score for tomorrow's game: Belmont: 73.5, SLU 71.5. This is a 2 pt. spread in favor of Belmont. Team rankings has their confidence ranking for Belmont's win set at 1 star only. As per Vegas and Teamrankings this could be a 50-50 chance game for either team.

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