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The Wiz

The Bills over GW by 8

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If i can digress for a moment and then we will get to the game analysis....

Suppose you had a team  that was worse than St. J ...say a C-  team trending at F with a record of 8-15...and they were playing a B+ team trending at A-  leading their conf with a 16-5 record....and the bad team beats the good team....That was what happened last night in the UMass (C-   F  )  vs Dav ( B+   A-) game.  I point this out as another example of parity and to show that there are worse things than losing to St. J.     St J is not a great team but they are better than UMass ....We are not a bad team but Dav is a better team than us.....yet UMass wins...It happens... especially with a league steeped in parity.  A few years ago playing a bottom feeder was a sure win ...playing a conf leader was a sure loss... not so these days....Just a thought for the day ....when figuring out who finishes where and what their final record will be.

Now onto the GW game.....

Well, we are bleeding again...numbers wise....The good news  is we remain as a B- team....however our trend line is pointing down ...now trending at C- .    But we have just what the doctor ordered ...GW  a  D+  team that is trending at D.   A team that is at least as bad as us on offense...that is not a typo...the truth.  The spread variable is 4-12 pts in favor of The Bills.  This will be a tough game to bet on...I am guessing Vegas will come in at about 12 pts. The wide spread is an indication of 2 inconsistent teams.

Let's take a look at the report card.....

..............................SLU...............................GW.............................................SLU....................................GW

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................F-....................................................A...................................C

FG%..........................F.................................F... .............................................. ...B+..................................C-

3P%..........................F-................................F  ....................................................A....................................D

FT%...........................F-...2nd WITN............D...........................................................................................A+...7th ITN

Reb............................A................................D-.....................................................B...................................F

Change in our grades from last game.

Down....Off.... Reb (tot reb)  &  FG%  &  3P%...............Def...PPG,    FG%,   &  3P%

Also on OFF rebs  which just counts reb from the OFF side ..we are 12.5 /gm which is 3rd ITN  

One other note...I listed  Defensive FT% under GW which I never do...I just don't think it is that relevant or makes that much difference in most games.  I listed it in this game because GW is 7th ITN...What is Def FT%?   It is when the opposing team picks who they will foul and how much they will foul. Targeting fouls....In this case they will go after anyone who is not shooting at least 60%...which is everybody on our team except Bess and Isabel...sad.  If you are not named Bess or Isabel....be prepared to shoot FTs on Wed...they will be looking for you....hopefully this stat won't matter if we open the game up.

 

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...42nd

Rebs....French.......68th 

Blks.....French.........83rd

 

Injury report

2/8/19   Jacobs (shin) and Hankton (shoulder) both questionable for Fri...it is unknown if they will be able to play Wed

2/3...Welmer...Fractured left foot...out for season

WWN2D2W...Stop D Williams...Hold him to 11 pts...Hold everyone else to single digits......Dominate the boards by at least 10 rebs. ...Win the TO battle....Make the slash 41/30 /60

WCGW.....GW  is a D+ in Opp TOs ...we lose the TO battle because of unforced errors..... We get good shots and miss which in turn causes us to miss slash...related...we miss bunnies and layups.

Bottom line....We are the superior team on Def.....GW will not beat us....however  we can beat us.   If we play heads up ball... we win....if we have a good game we should win by double digits or a blowout....TCOB

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I’ll be in attendance.  My coaching/motivation from the 4th row is worth 0.5 points. Adjust spread as necessary 

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If we bench our team to let them heal we would have a better chance of winning the tournament. We can beat any top team as a bottom seed and finishing top 4 isn’t going to happen. 

Not proposing we do that, just an interesting though I had. Bess needs a rest 

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Personnel report ...................Geedubya is bad .... but on any given night ....

They start 6'9" Spaniard Javier Langarica, 6'7" Illinois transfer RS Sophomore DJ Williams, 6'5" soph Maceo Jack, 6'3" soph Justin Mazulla and 6'4" junior Justin Williams.  Justin Williams has taken over for Terry Nolan Jr who went 0-for-3 with four fouls two games ago against VCU and then never got off the bench for the loss in Richmond.  Don't know the full story there.  Former starter Arnaldo Toro hasn't seen game action since the Vermont game over Thanksgiving.  A hip injury was his seaon ender.  Mazulla is the OBJ look-like; he and Isabell should really make a pair as opposing PGs.

DJ Williams leads team with both Jacks and Nolan adding 10 ppg.  Mazulla is a few points shy of that.  So four guys scoring in double figures.  They have no bench what so ever.  Armel Potter plays about a half but is nothing more that a foul replacement or breather guy.  Of course, I said about the same thing for Chris Clover the other night.

Billikens minus 8 ----- taking the points.  I can't get there in time for a 4:30 Happy Hour so Nick will be unchaperoned.  That ought to pump up the contribution another 0.5 points.  While the prospects are extremely dim, cannot absolutely not must have not lose this one.  

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not sure where to put this but,

 

 

 

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In the posted interview on Twitter Ford said Jacobs does want to play but is scared of reinjuring it. Ford also mentioned changing up some things on defense and offense. Also said that there wasn’t much to do on some of St. Joes shots 

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48 minutes ago, wgstl said:

not sure where to put this but,

 

 

 

With you on where to put it.  I posted this below the one in the GD thread too.



 

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22 minutes ago, philliken said:

With you on where to put it.  I posted this below the one in the GD thread too.

 

Anthony Bonner and Aaron Hines returned to the court today to add bodies at SLU practice.

— stu durando (@studurando) February 11, 2019



 

 

Bonner looked like he was in game shape a couple weeks back.

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5 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Bonner looked like he was in game shape a couple weeks back.

I walked past him on the concourse that night and I swear he looks the same as when he was playing. Has stayed in great shape.

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3 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

I walked past him on the concourse that night and I swear he looks the same as when he was playing. Has stayed in great shape.

 

3 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

I walked past him on the concourse that night and I swear he looks the same as when he was playing. Has stayed in great shape.

Hes 50 years old. So is Jennifer Aniston today.

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19 minutes ago, slusam said:

 

Hes 50 years old. So is Jennifer Aniston today.

Talked to him at half time on the concourse.  Great guy - was friendly and more than willing to talk about the game.  He was walking by carrying nachos but still stopped to talk.

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-AB has always been accommodating with his time when I have spoken with him,  if at 50 he can go with our guys at practice I am very impressed, will be interesting to see what CFord has to say about this tonight

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7 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-AB has always been accommodating with his time when I have spoken with him,  if at 50 he can go with our guys at practice I am very impressed, will be interesting to see what CFord has to say about this tonight

Hopefully there will be some video of him at practice

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4 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-AB has always been accommodating with his time when I have spoken with him,  if at 50 he can go with our guys at practice I am very impressed, will be interesting to see what CFord has to say about this tonight

Any Jr Bonners in the pipeline?

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Veegas spread for tonight's game is 5 in favor of SLU. Expected scores SLU 68, GW 63. Let's go win it.

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A nice win.  We not only beat the spread  but also beat the top end of the variable spread which was 12 pts. We have stopped the bleeding...again. But we are not yet back on track....we need another good game....exceeding the spread to say  we are rolling again. A tip of the cap to Bess who had 26 pts...highlighted by a 4 of 6 night from the arc and 100% from theFT line.  The rest of the Bills team shot the usual 60% (6-10)....adding Bess's 12-12 pushed us up to a sky high 82%.Also a tip of the cap to the trio of Isabel , Goodwin and Thatch who shot 79% from 2 pt range. (11-14)....nice to sink some short shorts.

Let's see where the 15 pt spread came from...Bess's 2 extra 3PM  pushed our slash above normal plus the extra FTM gave us a 47/41/82 slash......2 extra 3s = 6pts + 5 extra FTM = 5pts  +4 pts from the 2 TO spread in our favor.....6 + 5 +4 = 15pts.....And you have to remember that GW is a poor shooting 3P team and they came in with a 47% generated by 3 extra 3s. Had GW had a normal night we would have won this game by 24pts.

We didn't stop  Williams but did a nice jjob on everyone else.  We beat them by 7 rebs which is a little short of the 10 I was looking for but was good enough....our reb number was down a bit because....well because we made more shots which is a good thing.

Bottom line....We need to make up some ground to finish in the top 4 of the A-10. We are 2 games out with 6 to play including games with teams we are chasing....Can we do it?? Yes...if we play like last night.

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JGood very close to a triple double. Hopefully this is the start of a stretch like last year when he almost had three in a row. 

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Hey Wiz if VCU and Davidson end up tied 16-2 at the end of the season, will they both get at large bids if another team (preferably SLU) wins the A10 tournament

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49 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Hey Wiz if VCU and Davidson end up tied 16-2 at the end of the season, will they both get at large bids if another team (preferably SLU) wins the A10 tournament

If both teams win out....Dav will get the auto bid for  winning the conference.   Then it will depend on the A-10 tourney results.  If VCU loses to SLU in the championship game....the Rams  will have a good chance at an at large bid. If VCU doesn't make it to the championship game because they only win 2,  then their chances become bubble like.  If they only win 1 or none , then they are out.

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

If both teams win out....Dav will get the auto bid for  winning the conference.   Then it will depend on the A-10 tourney results.  If VCU loses to SLU in the championship game....the Rams  will have a good chance at an at large bid. If VCU doesn't make it to the championship game because they only win 2,  then their chances become bubble like.  If they only win 1 or none , then they are out.

Davidson would get the auto bid for winning the conference? Unless something has changed, (or I'm missing something here), the auto bid goes to the tourney winner, right?

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25 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

Davidson would get the auto bid for winning the conference? Unless something has changed, (or I'm missing something here), the auto bid goes to the tourney winner, right?

You are correct....I shouldnt have used the word auto bid....I consider it an auto bid because the NCAA has awarded the A-10 conf winner a bid every year since SLU has been a member. But it is not an auto bid. Going back to the original question ...Dav and VCU...If they both win out the rest of the conf schedule....the team that wins 2 of 3 in the A-10 tourney would probably get an at large  bid

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7 hours ago, White Pelican said:

Davidson would get the auto bid for winning the conference? Unless something has changed, (or I'm missing something here), the auto bid goes to the tourney winner, right?

if davidson wins the regular season but loses in the tourney they get an auto bid to the NIT if they dont get an at large bid to the ncaa.  

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Vegas spread 7 pts in favor of SLU. Expected scores: SLU 70, LaSalle 63.

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Wrong thread.

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