VCU over The Bills by 5

[The Wiz]

It's a little early for the forecast but since this is the next game for both teams, we can get started a little early.

First, what a great win over St. B last night...a big win as you will see below.  (see the SB spread thread for the post game review)

This was an important win  because we have finally reached the grade of B.   The computer thinks that B is important for 2 reasons.... 

1. At B we have gelled...The long awaited goal for this team to move forward to a new level has arrived. This does not mean the computer thinks we will be 18-0 in conference. BUT it does mean it thinks we will be in a position and  have a chance to win every game in the A10.  Further , now that we have gelled if we do lose a game and slip back we have the ability to turn things around and get back to where we were.  It is one thing trying to reach a place you have never been to and another getting back to where you were. The Beatles said it best...Get Back to where you once belonged.

2. Being at B is where the computer thought we need to be to compete.  It puts us in a position to be a top 4 team.    We are projecting right now at 3-7th place. That gives us the board's favorite probability...50-50. But there is a long way to go . Realistically, we should move to be at B+ . Reaching that level would give us a great chance to be a top 4 team.  Our final goal should be to get to A- or higher to strengthen our chances for an at large bid or to get a better seed if we do make the tourney and lastly to show that we can compete in the Dance.

Those should be the goals ...our immediate goal is to try and win this game and stay at the B level ...no simple task but we are in a lot better shape today then we were a few weeks ago...the key will be to focus on  1 game  at a time. Don't look back and don't get ahead....as Coach K use to say after a good or bad play..."next play". Our "next play" will be VCU...let's see what we are up against.

Game preview...

This game could be called SB 2.0...Remember in the last thread I referred to that game as the immovable object (SB defense ) vs the unstoppable force (Bills offense) ...Just substitute VCU for SB.   VCU is at least as good as as SB on defense  and at least as bad as SBU on offense.  They feature a D-  3P shot. Most of their points will be inside the arc. Again there strategy will be to slow the game down.  With SBU , we faced a team that had an 8 game winning streak. With VCU we are looking at a team that is 8-0 at home. They are hard to beat on the home turf. This why the computer gives them the edge. But they can be beaten. Seton Hall, the bottom feeder of the Big East, beat them. Seton Hall is Fham quality.  The computer says if Thames can play for 13 min and Anya can keep from fouling out ..ie play 30 min...we can probably win this game.  Like the SB game we will have to play aggressive , a fast up tempo game and make shots instead of mistakes.  In other words , play like you did against SB. 

Now let's look at the Card and see what's up....

Report Card.... 

Report Card change....2 up...1 dn...6 unchanged = +1....After  being up 10-0 in the last 2 report cards  we have cooled a bit but are still moving up

UP.....OFF....3P%.....Reb...DEF....3P%

Dn....OFF...Rebs....DEF...none

 

................SLU..................VCU.....................SLU......................VCU

...........................OFF...................................................DEF..........

PPG...........B-..................B-.........................C+......................A+..17th ITN

FG%..........A-..................C..........................B-........................A

3P%...........B+................D-........................C+.........................B+

FT%..........F.....................C-..............................................................

Reb............C...................B+.......................D..........................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

2P%....Team...7th ITN...unch

PPG...Jimerson ....40th...up

..........Swope.........63rd...dn

..........Avila............69th...dn

3PM......Jimerson...14th...up

..............Swope........47th...up

Reb....Anya...........20th...dn...

VCU...

Stls...Shulga...73rd

Blks...Bamgboye...17th

Injuries

SLU

AJ Casey

F

Questionable - Undisclosed - 1/9/25

Casey is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will dress against VCU on Wednesday, 15th January.

VCU....none

 

Keys to the game....Play fast and aggressive from the opening buzzer all game. They will try to let the 30 sec clock run down.  Keep TOs down ...no unforced errors...Make pts not TOs...Don't try to shoot over Bamgboye...or is it bang boy or bad boy  or even Bam ( he got it) boy....in any case a 6'10 shot blocker with long arms.

WWN2D2W.....Target slash 49 / 36 / 73.... Rebs  and  TOs even...Hold them to  70pts...Hold these 4 to 44 pts...Bamisile...Shulga...Jackson...and Russell (you remember good ol' Phil)... Even though the Rams are a bad shooting team from the arc they have 2  that can shoot 3s IF left alone.. Shulga and Russell (and there he is again) bother them , no open shots.  And finally if it is close at the end , don't foul Jackson or Russell (and again)...It's OK, they may have our homey but we got theirs (Gibson)

Bottom line...Let's move the immovable...again

[wgstl]

I like this line way more than Torviks +11 

[The Wiz]

54 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I like this line way more than Torviks +11 

I do too.  My sports book friend in  Vegas suggested I make the program a little more sensitive to trending to reflect the newer Billikens. So I tweaked the "gell" algorithm to weight more recent play a little heavier which allows the program to track the Bills progress a little faster. I made the change because this is a different team than the one from  a few weeks ago. I ran some simulations on past games and it seems to work a little better.

We will see what happens.

[Coach314]

Haven't caught a conference game yet.  Looking forward to the matchup.  

[slu72]

8 hours ago, Coach314 said:

Haven't caught a conference game yet.  Looking forward to the matchup.  

You’ve missed some good stuff! 

[CenHudDude]

9 hours ago, Coach314 said:

Haven't caught a conference game yet.  Looking forward to the matchup.  

Maybe you better not watch.  You may jinx them.  They are undefeated without you.

[JettFlight5]

Looks like the zone should be in play. Changed the whole game against the Bonnies.

[Cowboy II]

-for me it will be a long weekend with anticipation for this game, might have to drink

[Coach314]

12 hours ago, CenHudDude said:

Maybe you better not watch.  You may jinx them.  They are undefeated without you.

 

[Lando Griffin]

I’m so hyped for this game.  Should be fun! 

[thunderdan]

On 1/10/2025 at 9:00 AM, JettFlight5 said:

Looks like the zone should be in play. Changed the whole game against the Bonnies.

This needs to be the default defense. 

[slu72]

It seems to me switching D’s appears to cause disruptions in the opponents game plans. It takes them awhile to adjust to a different D. 

[ACE]

17 hours ago, thunderdan said:

This needs to be the default defense. 

Agreed - our man to man defense has gotten better since conference play began, but it's still not great, so I like the zone. Kobe and Anya are really needed to provide good D. I'd like to see a bit more of Max and Amari off the bench for their defensive potential as much as anything.

[Dr. Holly Hills]

+8.5 right now..  

[TheChosenOne]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

+8.5 right now..  

I find myself wanting to bet on the Billikens (I think we keep it within that margin), but I am currently so happy with our play, I don’t want to mess with it by putting money on us! The Wiz’s logic with regards to putting more emphasis on our recent play makes a ton of sense and not surprisingly there is gap between his analysis and the betting line. DraftKings has it at 9 and the o/u at 145.5.

[Bay Area Billiken]

ESPN spread is VCU -9.5, after opening at VCU -8.5. Total is 145.5. ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor has VCU 86.9%. 
 

CBS has VCU -9, o145. 

[CenHudDude]

8 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

ESPN spread is VCU -9.5, after opening at VCU -8.5. Total is 145.5. ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor has VCU 86.9%. 
 

CBS has VCU -9, o145. 

Nobody beats The Wiz.

[Old guy]

Team Rankings has SLU losing by 10 points against VCU tonight. Looking at the stats for both teams posted by Team Rankings, it will be a major upset on VCU if we manage to win this game. Go Bills, do it!

[Crewsorlose]

Anybody paying attention knows that SLU has been a different team for the past 5+ games. VCU getting 9 points is just too high. That being said, this VCU team has the #27 defense according to KenPom & SLU has no chance if they cough up live ball TOs. 

[slu72]

Schertz main obstacle tonite is finding a way to get by Havoc w/o a PG. It’s got to get done by passing over it rather than trying to dribble thru it would be my guess. Robbie may be the key to that. In Schertz I trust. 

[ACE]

10 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Schertz main obstacle tonite is finding a way to get by Havoc w/o a PG. It’s got to get done by passing over it rather than trying to dribble thru it would be my guess. Robbie may be the key to that. In Schertz I trust. 

VCU doesn't play a "Havoc" style any more.

[slu72]

5 minutes ago, ACE said:

VCU doesn't play a "Havoc" style any more.

But they press, right? 

[Fraz]

I’m sure we’ll see pressure

[almaman]

54 minutes ago, ACE said:

VCU doesn't play a "Havoc" style any more.

inventor 2 teams & 2 hair styles removed from. there

[The Wiz]

Updated  injury report ...Casey  out for season...Medical redshirt...

Also I asked the bookie why we are so far apart on the spread...He said KenPom is showing VCU by  11....plus the Casey injury. Bills fans know the loss of Casey is not  significant  for this game but when added to KenPom  it creates a discrepancy.  I am still showing 5.