The Wiz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 General Outlook....We are stuck in the PIG pen and trending down. There is still plenty of season left (1/3 of conf play is over) but we need a few wins. We let one slip away with Dav. We have another opportunity with UMass. As you can see by the spread , the computer thinks this will be a close game. Of course, the computer thought the last game would be close. We have a leaking spot in our D and unless it is fixed, it will continue to wreck spreads ...sometimes in a big way such as Dav or SIU. I am talking about opponent TOs which lead to negative TO spreads. Let me show you some stat grades in this upcoming UMass game....TOs...SLU C+...UMass B...so far not too bad...but wait ...there is more ...opponent TOs....UMass ..A-....SLU...F- ..16th worst ITN...If those grades play out on Sat we could lose by 20 pts...if we can match them on TOs the game is a tossup. Point of information...UMass gives up an average of 11.1 TOs /per game and we usually rack up about 11/gm...so this is not pie in the sky stuff...It is doable. Fix this and we will start winning again. Leave it loose and we will continue to trend down. Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....We are still clinging to a C-... a loss will knock us down a notch. UMass comes in with a B. They are a better team than Dav BUT they do have some weaknesses. They are not a very good 3P or FT team. We need to take advantage of that. Dav wasn't a great shooting 3 team either missing a number of shots EXCEPT when we left them open. This will be a little bit different look than the average A10 team where you see a 4 guard lineup with a big guy. The Minutemen will use 2 big guys in their lineups. Their main men are Cohen who leads in PPG , FG% and is 2nd in rebs.....and Cross who leads in Rebs and is 2nd in PPG.... Stopping them will also give us a chance to win. I mentioned UMass wasn't very good from the arc ...close in they are an excellent B+...we will have to watch our fouls. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative...No up and 2 down......The good news is that the defense did not go down...the bad news it is in bad shape .................SLU............Mass................SLU.........................Mass ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................A-..................D-...........................C FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................B 3P%...........B.....................D..................D+...........................C- FT%..........B-....................D..................................................... Reb...........D.....................B+....................D...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none.....Def....none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...41st...dn Mass Rebs....Cross...73rd Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Mass....None Keys to the Game.......Slow down Cohen and Cross....Make some 3s...Force some TOs...No open shots from the arc...protect the ball, no careless giveaways. WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/37/75....Hold Mass to 72 pts....Come within 1 on TOs and Rebs....Hold Cohen to 13 pts...Beat Mass on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Keep their top 3 scorers to 37 pts...hold Cross to 6 rebs. Bottom line....If we can make a few 3s and force a few TOs, we can turn this thing around in a Minute man. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 -Wiz you grade us in 9 areas and we have 7 of those in the D category Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Umass is better than Davidson to whom we just lost to at home by 20+ points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -Wiz you grade us in 9 areas and we have 7 of those in the D category That's why we are in the PP. BrettJollyComedyHour likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Josh Cohen had a historically great game against Portland earlier this season scoring 28 points in 29 minutes. He went 9-9 from the field, including 1-1 from the 3, and 9-9 from the FT line. Every time he shot the ball, it went into the bucket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 17 minutes ago, The Wiz said: That's why we are in the PP. The Power Play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said: The Power Play? Phucking Phorgetable BrettJollyComedyHour and TRN like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 49 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Umass is better than Davidson to whom we just lost to at home by 20+ points. A lot* better A spread less than 10 is crazy unless you count in the postgame meeting being worth a few points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Things usually go one of two ways after a meltdown like Davidson 1) Come up totally fired up, dominates the game. Then lose a bunch of games after that. 2) Team totally quits, gets dominated. Then lose a bunch of games after that. The Valley Sucks likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 30 minutes ago, slufan13 said: Things usually go one of two ways after a meltdown like Davidson 1) Come up totally fired up, dominates the game. Then lose a bunch of games after that. 2) Team totally quits, gets dominated. Then lose a bunch of games after that. Correct, but lets take a peek at how they were doing for the past month leading up to Davidson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Gotta respect the Wiz for being positive or even keel. I didn't know about the big men being key for UMASS but it makes me think Ez and Z end up sitting a lot due to fouls and they eat up our smaller players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 When The Big EZ is on the floor he has to touch it every time down. If no shot, kick opposite to Jimerson. Maybe he’ll hit a few. Crash the offensive glass with TJ and Thames, guards get back to defend, and roll the dice from there. There’s nothing else this team can do to win. It’s just that bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Jimerson has averaged 4 shots a game the past 2 games. Some of that is surely on him. Some of it is on opponents taking him away. Some of it is on Ford not being able to re-scheme him open. It's a problem though. A big problem. With our defense we have no chance to win if Jimerson isn't putting up points. That also applies to Parker and Brad. Those 3 need at least 50 a game for us to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, wgstl said: Correct, but lets take a peek at how they were doing for the past month leading up to Davidson. It's likely going to be option 2. Either way a lot of losses are following. Question for the board. We went 1-5 in our first 6 A10 games. Over/Under 2.5 wins the rest of the way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, slufan13 said: It's likely going to be option 2. Either way a lot of losses are following. Question for the board. We went 1-5 in our first 6 A10 games. Over/Under 2.5 wins the rest of the way? I’m going with under. I honestly think we have won the last game we will win this year. Please prove me wrong. Please. Pretty please with sugar on top. Whatever it takes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: General Outlook....We are stuck in the PIG pen and trending down. There is still plenty of season left (1/3 of conf play is over) but we need a few wins. We let one slip away with Dav. We have another opportunity with UMass. As you can see by the spread , the computer thinks this will be a close game. Of course, the computer thought the last game would be close. We have a leaking spot in our D and unless it is fixed, it will continue to wreck spreads ...sometimes in a big way such as Dav or SIU. I am talking about opponent TOs which lead to negative TO spreads. Let me show you some stat grades in this upcoming UMass game....TOs...SLU C+...UMass B...so far not too bad...but wait ...there is more ...opponent TOs....UMass ..A-....SLU...F- ..16th worst ITN...If those grades play out on Sat we could lose by 20 pts...if we can match them on TOs the game is a tossup. Point of information...UMass gives up an average of 11.1 TOs /per game and we usually rack up about 11/gm...so this is not pie in the sky stuff...It is doable. Fix this and we will start winning again. Leave it loose and we will continue to trend down. Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....We are still clinging to a C-... a loss will knock us down a notch. UMass comes in with a B. They are a better team than Dav BUT they do have some weaknesses. They are not a very good 3P or FT team. We need to take advantage of that. Dav wasn't a great shooting 3 team either missing a number of shots EXCEPT when we left them open. This will be a little bit different look than the average A10 team where you see a 4 guard lineup with a big guy. The Minutemen will use 2 big guys in their lineups. Their main men are Cohen who leads in PPG , FG% and is 2nd in rebs.....and Cross who leads in Rebs and is 2nd in PPG.... Stopping them will also give us a chance to win. I mentioned UMass wasn't very good from the arc ...close in they are an excellent B+...we will have to watch our fouls. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is negative...No up and 2 down......The good news is that the defense did not go down...the bad news it is in bad shape .................SLU............Mass................SLU.........................Mass ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........D+..................A-..................D-...........................C FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................B 3P%...........B.....................D..................D+...........................C- FT%..........B-....................D..................................................... Reb...........D.....................B+....................D...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none.....Def....none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...41st...dn Mass Rebs....Cross...73rd Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills....None Mass....None Keys to the Game.......Slow down Cohen and Cross....Make some 3s...Force some TOs...No open shots from the arc...protect the ball, no careless giveaways. WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/37/75....Hold Mass to 72 pts....Come within 1 on TOs and Rebs....Hold Cohen to 13 pts...Beat Mass on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Keep their top 3 scorers to 37 pts...hold Cross to 6 rebs. Bottom line....If we can make a few 3s and force a few TOs, we can turn this thing around in a Minute man. Thanks as always for your analysis @TheWiz. I keep keying in on your take on turnovers, and this looks more like a 20 point loss to me than a 3 point loss. I certainly hope I’m wrong. Maybe the team meeting helped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 -I would love to take the over but the only arrow possibly pointing in that direction is a renewed focus and commitment after the team meeting -call me skeptical that leads to seeing a different team for the remainder of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Cowboy II said: -I would love to take the over but the only arrow possibly pointing in that direction is a renewed focus and commitment after the team meeting -call me skeptical that leads to seeing a different team for the remainder of the season I’m not sure how a team meeting improves the defense, but I will try to be optimistic. TheA_Bomb likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Traditionally, we don't win on the road. If we concede that with this team, then our only hope are home wins. Who we got left? Umass. Fordham. VCU. George Washington. Richmond. Dayton. Those teams are a combined 77 and 36 overall; 25 and 12 in the A10. Also combined they are 13 and 12 on the road. Fordham is 3 and 3 on the road. Geedubya is 1 and 3 and Umass is 0 and 4. I think those three games might be it although Richmond is only 3 and 3 and we played Dayton close in Dayton. Athletically, once again, we don't see to match up well with VCU. Dayton is up to #16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Don't hold me to exact numbers but they were saying on an espn game last week that the AP top ten had only won something like 40% of their true road games to date. It's obviously hard to win on the road. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, willie said: Don't hold me to exact numbers but they were saying on an espn game last week that the AP top ten had only won something like 40% of their true road games to date. It's obviously hard to win on the road. Unfortunately for the Billikens, it is now hard to win at home. willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonny karate Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Tix are $20 minimum for umass on slu site any idea on how to get cheaper tix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonny karate Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I just need 1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I watched a little of the UMass game in the Hawaii tournament. One thing I remember from it is that UMass has 7 FR on the roster. For what it’s worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, slu72 said: I watched a little of the UMass game in the Hawaii tournament. One thing I remember from it is that UMass has 7 FR on the roster. For what it’s worth. Some would say they are now playing like Sophomores. Are our Billikens Frosh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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