GDT: SLU v. Dayton

[Soderball]

9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

torch,  come on we only shot 7 free throws.   I am not saying they called all the fouls on the billikens.   i am saying they didnt call the fouls on dayton.   

I've been ripping the "attack the refs" folks all season, but when the FTs are only 7 there were probably a few missed calls somewhere along the way.

Absolutely mind-blowing how bad the FT shooting was last night. Hasahn French must have made guest appearances to take all 36.

[billikenfan05]

17 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

torch,  come on we only shot 7 free throws.   I am not saying they called all the fouls on the billikens.   i am saying they didnt call the fouls on dayton.   

Maybe, but we also don’t really force teams to foul either. Holmes set a couple illegal screens, but watching this game I really didn’t think we were victimized. Honestly going to have to re-watch that game because I really didn't even notice the foul disparity until after the game. 

[VeniceMenace]

3 hours ago, Soderball said:

I don't doubt new posters and welcome them. Always need more Billiken fans.

 

Problem: MariaReynolds never posts anything except weaksauce defense of Ford and liking posts that defend Travis Ford, does not post very often at all, and was made only after CTF became the coach here.

 

Evidence points to this being a UK fan who is following Travis Ford. Never really see any comment about St Louis generally or about the program or program history from this poster. Just Ford, Ford, Ford.

 

Okay a couple other posts; some nice posts about the Lady Bills(nice) and a comment about hating on Tennessee and liking Kansas. Huh. Go Big Blue?

 

Oh and there's some defense of Travis' handling of the COVID situation and attacks on the admin when Situation 2 happening.

 

This is a Kentucky fan bro. This is a wildcat poster.

Last spring Maria posted that SLU needs some players players with fire because it's lacking on the current (last season's) roster.

[JMM28]

Does Dayton even consider SLU a rival at this point?

[thetorch]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

torch,  come on we only shot 7 free throws.   I am not saying they called all the fouls on the billikens.   i am saying they didnt call the fouls on dayton.   

The free throw rates for this particular game were slightly off-kilter but not by much.  When you have the team that fouls the least in the conference at home against the team who fouls the most, and not just a little bit more, a ridiculous amount more than the rest of the league these are the numbers you get. Dayton on average allows 7 FGs to 1 FT, in this game it was 9-1.  SLU allows 2 FGs for every FT.  In this game it was 1.8 - 1.  Not far off the norm actually.  This is what we do.

Dayton's season Def FT rate is 4th in the country.  They play good defense and don't foul.  It isn't happening just against us.

SLU's season Def Ft rate is 229th in the country.  If you just take our rate during conference play, 50.7, it ranks 359th in the nation, that is the 4th worst def FT rate in all of college basketball.  Again the Dayton game was not an outlier, this is what we do.

Unless every ref has it out for us, and every ref that does Dayton's games are getting paid by Flyers boosters the stats are undeniable.  SLU is historically bad defensively, not just for our program but for college basketball as a whole.

Putting it in perspective I tracked the A10 Def FT% on kenpom back to 99.

4 teams have finished the conference season with Def FT% higher than 50 in the A10 since 99.

01 GW - 14-18 team that fouled a ton, but they caused a ton of TOs, and were top 2 and 3 in conference in steals and blocks.  High Def FT rates can be indicative of good defenses that end more possessions in TOs.

07 & 08 Richmond - 07 Richmond was 8-22, 08 was 16-15, more terrible and mediocre teams but as was the case with GW they caused the most TOs in the conference and had elite steal and block numbers.

15 Billikens - A Bills team that finished 11-21 and had terrible steal, block, and turnover numbers.  Just fouled all day.  Before this season this was the worst modern SLU defense.

Now this team. 2nd to last in steals, dead last in TOs created, Defensive Efficiency, Def FT rate,  12th in FG% allowed all equals a team that plays terrible fundamental defense and fouls with impunity.  Again the numbers don't lie.  This is not the refs fault.  This is a team that has an all time worst A10 defense.

[The Wiz]

8 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I guess I'm confused.  You predicted Dayton by 18.  Dayton only won by 5.  You said that this was a miss by the computer, which I agree.  But, your explanation for the miss is that Dayton shot way more foul shots?  Wouldn't that be an explanation for missing the other way?

You are correct ...it is confusing . The problem is there are 2 separate issues. When I write a game forecast....I am trying to show the outcome, the spread  and What We Need 2 Do 2 Win.

In the post game ,  if we win , I am looking to see what went right...if we lose what went wrong.  Sometimes what goes wrong is an anomaly ...a strange occurrence that is out of the ordinary.   In yesterday's game there were many factors that contributed to the loss  but the one stat that was overwhelming was the FTAs.  The Bills had a drop of 67% below normal on FTAs while Day had an increase of 53% above normal... a swing of 24 shots(using both teams numbers) in favor of Day.  The 36 shot total is below the combined 40 shots that  both teams usually put up.   One standard deviation would be a combined swing total of  8-9 shots...there were nearly 3 times that amount in this game.

To answer  your question  about ...Shouldn't they have  beaten us by more given the extra opportunities Day had?  The answer is yes .  Two points here...#1...They would have had more FTM had they shot FTs any where near normal...They were shooting 75.4% coming into that game and had Elvis who was 3rd ITN in FT% at 97.2% and yes even he missed one...they wound up with a dismal 55%....#2...another reason they should have won by more was the sheer volume of FTAs even with their poor FT shooting.   BUT, the game is not played in a vacuum.  We actually outscored them while the clock was running....We matched them in 3s...both teams had 8....AND we beat them in 2s ...we had four extra 2s (8pts)....Take the 8  extra pts and subtract the 13 extra FTs they made and you have the game winning total of only 5.

Bottom line....Had Day had  a few less FTs and The Bills a few more the game's FTAs not only would have been closer to normal but the Bills probably would have won.   #17 ITN Day had to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the struggling Bills.  Perhaps Mar 5th The Bills can turn the tables on them.

 

[Cowboy II]

-a little late with these thoughts, but what the heck

-Sincere scores 5 straight points and gets subbed out of the game, perhaps he couldn't go more or he got yanked

-TJH, a 5th year player, throws a lazy, no look pass that leads to an SVU dunk, that shouldn't happen

-why can't we have good offense and good defense in the same game?

-Bruce is getting better

[thetorch]

Zhang's defense is improving. He's ahead of many of our big men at this point in his career save for French overall.

[HoosierPal]

10 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-a little late with these thoughts, but what the heck

-Bruce is getting better

Yes Bruce is getting better.  His passing is already pretty good for a Freshman Big.  Decent instincts on rim protection, again for a Frosh Big.  I like his nice little hook and his offensive footwork near the rim.

Bruce needs to get stronger.  That will come with more time in the weight room.  As we have seen, he has trouble rebounding in traffic, with even his own teammates taking the ball from him.  Right now he isn't allowed to take 18-20 footers, but with his good FT%, he needs to work on that 12-15 footer. 

[Soderball]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

You are correct ...it is confusing . The problem is there are 2 separate issues. When I write a game forecast....I am trying to show the outcome, the spread  and What We Need 2 Do 2 Win.

In the post game ,  if we win , I am looking to see what went right...if we lose what went wrong.  Sometimes what goes wrong is an anomaly ...a strange occurrence that is out of the ordinary.   In yesterday's game there were many factors that contributed to the loss  but the one stat that was overwhelming was the FTAs.  The Bills had a drop of 67% below normal on FTAs while Day had an increase of 53% above normal... a swing of 24 shots(using both teams numbers) in favor of Day.  The 36 shot total is below the combined 40 shots that  both teams usually put up.   One standard deviation would be a combined swing total of  8-9 shots...there were nearly 3 times that amount in this game.

To answer  your question  about ...Shouldn't they have  beaten us by more given the extra opportunities Day had?  The answer is yes .  Two points here...#1...They would have had more FTM had they shot FTs any where near normal...They were shooting 75.4% coming into that game and had Elvis who was 3rd ITN in FT% at 97.2% and yes even he missed one...they wound up with a dismal 55%....#2...another reason they should have won by more was the sheer volume of FTAs even with their poor FT shooting.   BUT, the game is not played in a vacuum.  We actually outscored them while the clock was running....We matched them in 3s...both teams had 8....AND we beat them in 2s ...we had four extra 2s (8pts)....Take the 8  extra pts and subtract the 13 extra FTs they made and you have the game winning total of only 5.

Bottom line....Had Day had  a few less FTs and The Bills a few more the game's FTAs not only would have been closer to normal but the Bills probably would have won.   #17 ITN Day had to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the struggling Bills.  Perhaps Mar 5th The Bills can turn the tables on them.

 

Honestly Wiz; as a stats guy the stats WPB and Torch posted above should show that it wasn't an anomaly, but should have been expected.

Team that gives up the least fouls/FTs  against the team that gives up the MOST.

I thought the same until i read the numbers.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Soderball said:

Honestly Wiz; as a stats guy the stats WPB and Torch posted above should show that it wasn't an anomaly, but should have been expected.

Team that gives up the least fouls/FTs  against the team that gives up the MOST.

I thought the same until i read the numbers.

According to that above chart you are referring to, it has Loy 3rd and by that logic there should have been another wide difference in FTAs.... I am showing  in that Loy game a swing of only 6 FTA in that  game...2 less than normal for the Bills and 4 extra for Loy...well within the normal variance of FTA in a game.  That chart says conference only games...I would assume that is based on 3-4 games (small sample size). I just ran the FTR numbers this morning  based on the entire season through yesterday ...SLU...24.6 (and 2nd on the A-10 chart above) and Day 14.2...Much closer.  Interestingly enough for the season, we give up less FGA than Dayton .   Also , we had 66 FGA  in the Day game....Day had only 54.

I will stick with my original statement, the swing of 24 FTAs was an anomaly that led to the loss of the Day game.

[Cowboy II]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

According to that above chart you are referring to, it has Loy 3rd and by that logic there should have been another wide difference in FTAs.... I am showing  in that Loy game a swing of only 6 FTA in that  game...2 less than normal for the Bills and 4 extra for Loy...well within the normal variance of FTA in a game.  That chart says conference only games...I would assume that is based on 3-4 games (small sample size). I just ran the FTR numbers this morning  based on the entire season through yesterday ...SLU...24.6 (and 2nd on the A-10 chart above) and Day 14.2...Much closer.  Interestingly enough for the season, we give up less FGA than Dayton .   Also , we had 66 FGA  in the Day game....Day had only 54.

I will stick with my original statement, the swing of 24 FTAs was an anomaly that led to the loss of the Day game.

-what are the pace of play numbers? remember that we are a full-court pressing team that's going to shoot 30 3's a game

[DOC]

17 hours ago, thetorch said:

The free throw rates for this particular game were slightly off-kilter but not by much.  When you have the team that fouls the least in the conference at home against the team who fouls the most, and not just a little bit more, a ridiculous amount more than the rest of the league these are the numbers you get. Dayton on average allows 7 FGs to 1 FT, in this game it was 9-1.  SLU allows 2 FGs for every FT.  In this game it was 1.8 - 1.  Not far off the norm actually.  This is what we do.

Dayton's season Def FT rate is 4th in the country.  They play good defense and don't foul.  It isn't happening just against us.

SLU's season Def Ft rate is 229th in the country.  If you just take our rate during conference play, 50.7, it ranks 359th in the nation, that is the 4th worst def FT rate in all of college basketball.  Again the Dayton game was not an outlier, this is what we do.

Unless every ref has it out for us, and every ref that does Dayton's games are getting paid by Flyers boosters the stats are undeniable.  SLU is historically bad defensively, not just for our program but for college basketball as a whole.

Putting it in perspective I tracked the A10 Def FT% on kenpom back to 99.

4 teams have finished the conference season with Def FT% higher than 50 in the A10 since 99.

01 GW - 14-18 team that fouled a ton, but they caused a ton of TOs, and were top 2 and 3 in conference in steals and blocks.  High Def FT rates can be indicative of good defenses that end more possessions in TOs.

07 & 08 Richmond - 07 Richmond was 8-22, 08 was 16-15, more terrible and mediocre teams but as was the case with GW they caused the most TOs in the conference and had elite steal and block numbers.

15 Billikens - A Bills team that finished 11-21 and had terrible steal, block, and turnover numbers.  Just fouled all day.  Before this season this was the worst modern SLU defense.

Now this team. 2nd to last in steals, dead last in TOs created, Defensive Efficiency, Def FT rate,  12th in FG% allowed all equals a team that plays terrible fundamental defense and fouls with impunity.  Again the numbers don't lie.  This is not the refs fault.  This is a team that has an all time worst A10 defense.

You say the free throws were slightly off and Wiz says way off. Who’s correct?

[billiken_roy]

6 hours ago, Soderball said:

Honestly Wiz; as a stats guy the stats WPB and Torch posted above should show that it wasn't an anomaly, but should have been expected.

Team that gives up the least fouls/FTs  against the team that gives up the MOST.

I thought the same until i read the numbers.

6 or 7 more foul shot attempts is one thing.   Double that is not.   It was a horribly reffed game from that standpoint alone and the difference in the game.   

"Call it on both ends!"

[TheA_Bomb]

3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

6 or 7 more foul shot attempts is one thing.   Double that is not.   It was a horribly reffed game from that standpoint alone and the difference in the game.   

"Call it on both ends!"

If true perhaps the refs are tired of the coach's antics like getting on the floor and distracting a 3 PT shooter or flying off the handle. Maybe in year 28 he'll learn how to work the refs.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, TheA_Bomb said:

If true perhaps the refs are tired of the coach's antics like getting on the floor and distracting a 3 PT shooter or flying off the handle. Maybe in year 28 he'll learn how to work the refs.

grant is worse than ford.   let's not forget, grant went across the ford and was ready to go in the stands and fight jett.   so if you are correct with the above, why would grant's players get all the calls if the refs were tired of ford antics?

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

20 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

grant is worse than ford.   let's not forget, grant went across the ford and was ready to go in the stands and fight jett.   so if you are correct with the above, why would grant's players get all the calls if the refs were tired of ford antics?

Well that was what 2 years ago? Ford acts up on a routine basis. Blaming the refs for a loss is the most embarrassing thing. Refs aren't going to even out the free throw discrepancy just because that's "fair". One team had an NBA level big the other team has a bunch of mid major bigs who, as we've seen, have a habit of fouling. You don't like the other team shooting free throws... stop fouling. The end.

Also, take the time you spend crying to the refs and coach your team.

[billiken_roy]

15 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

Well that was what 2 years ago? Ford acts up on a routine basis. Blaming the refs for a loss is the most embarrassing thing. Refs aren't going to even out the free throw discrepancy just because that's "fair". One team had an NBA level big the other team has a bunch of mid major bigs who, as we've seen, have a habit of fouling. You don't like the other team shooting free throws... stop fouling. The end.

Also, take the time you spend crying to the refs and coach your team.

So you think that was the only time Grant had a tizzy?   You haven't watched Dayton much have you?

[billikenfan05]

You are not guaranteed equal foul calls. 

[TheA_Bomb]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

grant is worse than ford.   let's not forget, grant went across the ford and was ready to go in the stands and fight jett.   so if you are correct with the above, why would grant's players get all the calls if the refs were tired of ford antics?

Good point. Going in the UD podcaster guest on Midtown madness talked about UD not fouling as much this season. We've pointed out SLU fouls a lot.  The discrepancy was massive but so is the trajectory of the programs right now.

[billiken_roy]

19 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Good point. Going in the UD podcaster guest on Midtown madness talked about UD not fouling as much this season. We've pointed out SLU fouls a lot.  The discrepancy was massive but so is the trajectory of the programs right now.

i refuse to believe foul difference was that large.   no way.  

[willie]

10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i refuse to believe foul difference was that large.   no way.  

I am not getting in this argument but I will say I don’t think I yelled at my TV once during the game and that is unusual. 

[billiken_roy]

8 minutes ago, willie said:

I am not getting in this argument but I will say I don’t think I yelled at my TV once during the game and that is unusual. 

Willie the refs called everything on the billikens and the same act committed by Dayton was overlooked.  Big brad and dalger had a lot of under the basket fouls that didn't get called but Holmes sure got those same calls.

[thetorch]

10 hours ago, DOC said:

You say the free throws were slightly off and Wiz says way off. Who’s correct?

I am. For whatever reason most posters on the board are vastly overrating our defense. It is attrocious.

[TheA_Bomb]

30 minutes ago, thetorch said:

I am. For whatever reason most posters on the board are vastly overrating our defense. It is attrocious.

Our KenPom adj defense is 312 of 351.