The Bills and USU Even

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

It's skewed because Parker isn't playing.  Wyoming didn't lack big men, we were just able to counter them with 22 points from Parker.  With him we're a B-.  Without him, I agree, we're a C-.

We were a B team coming into the WY game.  In the WY game Parker played 28 min and scored 22 pts and was probably going to be coming out of the game in the 4th qtr when he got hurt.  The next game was VT.  Before we stepped onto the floor for the VT game there was no Parker effect on the stats....YET we dropped from B to B-  before the game started.   We have since played 3 games and are still at B-.   We have gone from 3 D1 games to 6 D1 games and so far the computer has not seen a Parker effect.   How can we be playing at the same level after losing a top player...Answer...others have stepped up to fill the gap. Would I like to have him back in the lineup...you bet.  Will his being gone eventually affect the team...maybe(we have at least  6 more games without him). But at this point in time the computer says there is no Parker effect.  

I think missing 2 big men (Ezewiro and Magassa) on a short team is having more of an effect on the team. It is hard to make up height.  Hopefully we can get 1 or both back soon.

[3star_recruit]

My prediction:  the computer will suddenly see a Parker effect over the next three games.  The same effect that us humans have already seen by watching the previous games.  Can this team even score over 70 points against a decent team without Parker in the lineup?

[The Wiz]

13 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

My prediction:  the computer will suddenly see a Parker effect over the next three games.  The same effect that us humans have already seen by watching the previous games.  Can this team even score over 70 points against a decent team without Parker in the lineup?

You may be right... 3 tough games...USU..B+..SIU..B...Drke..B+...We will see what we are made of.  Also, by the time we get to the Drke game  the computer will have a full set of numbers. It will start to tighten the spreads at that point.

[brianstl]

Utah State is a much better basketball team than Wyoming.  On a neutral court they would smoke us with a healthy Parker playing. It will take a heck of an effort and some luck for the Billikens to pull out this one.

[Dr. Holly Hills]

Can’t wait to get dominated by Great O. and D. Sprinkle…

[SLU_Nick]

BetOnline has it at Utah St -6

tough to argue with after watching Dartmouth 

 

 

[ARon]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:57 AM, billikenfan05 said:

I maintain that we're a good three point shooting team, we don't a. shoot enough and b. run enough action to get good looks

This logic reminds me of Jeff Fisher and his "if you disregards that 70 yard TD, we did a good job stopping the run today." arguments

[billikenfan05]

Just now, ARon said:

This logic reminds me of Jeff Fisher and his "if you disregards that 70 yard TD, we did a good job stopping the run today." arguments

Let me rephrase: we have a team with a bunch of guys who can shoot the 3 well. 

[RUBillsFan]

1 minute ago, ARon said:

This logic reminds me of Jeff Fisher and his "if you disregards that 70 yard TD, we did a good job stopping the run today." arguments

 

Just now, billikenfan05 said:

Let me rephrase: we have a team with a bunch of guys who can shoot the 3 well. 

Per KenPom we're 81st in the country in 3pt % (36.3%, KenPom doesn't count non-D1 games) and 342nd on 2pt % (42.0%).  However, our 3pt attempt rate (3 pt FGA / all FGA) is 229th in the country.

As is typically the case with Travis Ford SLU teams (aside from maybe 2019 when we had an awful 3pt shooting team), we should be taking more 3 pointers and less 2 pointers.

[BigMouthBilliken]

No offense but is your computer program running on Windows 7? Is in need of a serious upgrade. This game was never going to be close

[BigMouthBilliken]

2 hours ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

No offense but is your computer program running on Windows 7? Is in need of a serious upgrade. This game was never going to be close

I spoke too soon. The last 2 minutes skewed it

[The Wiz]

First, my condolences to those who bet the house and ice cream  money on the "lock" game  on USU with SLU getting 6.5pts. The point the computer was trying to make by having it as an even game was that this was a winnable game for the Billikens....and for all the doom and gloom on the board....this game was winnable. There were many chances to win. To me that final 3 USU took in the final minute with no time on the shot clock was a big one.  At that point USU was shooting 22.7% and needed that shot for the win or had we fouled anyone else but Brown in that final minute  ( their only good FT shooter...the team was shooting 38% from the charity stripe when he was fouled) ... Hmmm.... that doesn't sound like a team that dominated us....a lock team...a team trying to hang on in the final minute of the game. In the opening post I showed all the numbers for USU that were "Great" and most happened...yet the game was winnable.

Here is something you won't see in the box score...USU shot a staggering 76.3% from 2P (55.9% is considered an A+ )...a team that does that is a "lock"...yet the game was winnable.

Here is The Bills target slash from the opening post of this thread...with the most important being the second number(2P%)....45/51/38/72 and here is the actual slash...47/ 51.5 / 42/ 92...we beat the slash ...that is what gave us a chance to win...when we were trailing heavy that 2P number was way down...once it came up we were back in the game...had we started making the 2s 1 min earlier....the game would have been winnable.

We beat them on TOs and steals too...

So I asked the computer...what was the deciding factor in the game...what was the key stat....the answer...2nd chance points....the 10 extra rebs allowed them extra shots which was the difference maker...Bills 2nd chance points ..11...USU...17pts.....6 extra pts in in a 5 pt win....THE DIFFERENCE

Think about that for a moment ...the "lock" team out rebounded us by 10 (40% more rebs than SLU) and was shooting 76.3% inside the arc (compared to the Bills fine 51.5%)  AND  YET the "lock" team needed extra shots to beat us in the final minute of the game.

Bottom line....USU will be one of the top teams in the MWC .....they have a decent chance to make the Big Dance.... and yet against all odds (Vegas)...this game was winnable for The Bills

BTW...did I mention the computer picked a close game because it knew the game was winnable for The Bills

 

 

[RamJAMTIME]

Any word on why USU didn't play their 7 footer in the second half? Really wish SLU found a way to win that one, but I'm going to say that was the reason it was even close. I'm guessing most of those layups aren't even attempted if he's down there with Osobor.

[The Wiz]

19 minutes ago, RamJAMTIME said:

Any word on why USU didn't play their 7 footer in the second half? Really wish SLU found a way to win that one, but I'm going to say that was the reason it was even close. I'm guessing most of those layups aren't even attempted if he's down there with Osobor.

This was his greatest game ever.  Most points ever... 16 , most mins ever 21... most stats in a gm... 3 rebs ...2 ast...1 blk ...1 stl...he usually plays about 13 min/gm and averages about 7pts/gm ...I think at 21 min of  his best ever plus fighting off Hargrove he was done. In his previous season at Ore he played 76 min for the whole season (14 games) and that was 2 years ago.

[CenHudDude]

8 hours ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

I spoke too soon. The last 2 minutes skewed it

Yep.

[HoosierPal]

Walter Nolan publishes a NET approximation.  I've looked at it early season for 6 years, and it is usually spot on with the NET when it is published. Anyway, Utah State has a NET rank of 18.  Right now, that is the highest NET of any team on our schedule.  RPI for the Aggies is 14.

[JMM28]

29 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Walter Nolan publishes a NET approximation.  I've looked at it early season for 6 years, and it is usually spot on with the NET when it is published. Anyway, Utah State has a NET rank of 18.  Right now, that is the highest NET of any team on our schedule.  RPI for the Aggies is 14.

That is last years NET ranking. 

[Soderball]

41 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Walter Nolan publishes a NET approximation.  I've looked at it early season for 6 years, and it is usually spot on with the NET when it is published. Anyway, Utah State has a NET rank of 18.  Right now, that is the highest NET of any team on our schedule.  RPI for the Aggies is 14.

Not only was this last years rating; but they have a new coach and 11 new players on the roster. This was their second road game. The other one they lost in OT to Bradley.

The expectations for SLU have dropped to such a point that a 5 point loss is now a victory for CTF. It's amazing.

[CenHudDude]

27 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Not only was this last years rating; but they have a new coach and 11 new players on the roster. This was their second road game. The other one they lost in OT to Bradley.

The expectations for SLU have dropped to such a point that a 5 point loss is now a victory for CTF. It's amazing.

Nobody sees a five point loss as a victory for CTF.  It is, however, a testament to the heart that the team plays with to come back from 20 points down to make it a game in the last few minutes.  Support the team!

[brianstl]

16 hours ago, The Wiz said:

First, my condolences to those who bet the house and ice cream  money on the "lock" game  on USU with SLU getting 6.5pts. The point the computer was trying to make by having it as an even game was that this was a winnable game for the Billikens....and for all the doom and gloom on the board....this game was winnable. There were many chances to win. To me that final 3 USU took in the final minute with no time on the shot clock was a big one.  At that point USU was shooting 22.7% and needed that shot for the win or had we fouled anyone else but Brown in that final minute  ( their only good FT shooter...the team was shooting 38% from the charity stripe when he was fouled) ... Hmmm.... that doesn't sound like a team that dominated us....a lock team...a team trying to hang on in the final minute of the game. In the opening post I showed all the numbers for USU that were "Great" and most happened...yet the game was winnable.

Here is something you won't see in the box score...USU shot a staggering 76.3% from 2P (55.9% is considered an A+ )...a team that does that is a "lock"...yet the game was winnable.

Here is The Bills target slash from the opening post of this thread...with the most important being the second number(2P%)....45/51/38/72 and here is the actual slash...47/ 51.5 / 42/ 92...we beat the slash ...that is what gave us a chance to win...when we were trailing heavy that 2P number was way down...once it came up we were back in the game...had we started making the 2s 1 min earlier....the game would have been winnable.

We beat them on TOs and steals too...

So I asked the computer...what was the deciding factor in the game...what was the key stat....the answer...2nd chance points....the 10 extra rebs allowed them extra shots which was the difference maker...Bills 2nd chance points ..11...USU...17pts.....6 extra pts in in a 5 pt win....THE DIFFERENCE

Think about that for a moment ...the "lock" team out rebounded us by 10 (40% more rebs than SLU) and was shooting 76.3% inside the arc (compared to the Bills fine 51.5%)  AND  YET the "lock" team needed extra shots to beat us in the final minute of the game.

Bottom line....USU will be one of the top teams in the MWC .....they have a decent chance to make the Big Dance.... and yet against all odds (Vegas)...this game was winnable for The Bills

BTW...did I mention the computer picked a close game because it knew the game was winnable for The Bills

 

 

Wiz I love you man, but this was not a winnable game.  The Billikens went on a run after USU let off the gas.  The Billikens were never going to win that game.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Wiz I love you man, but this was not a winnable game.  The Billikens went on a run after USU let off the gas.  The Billikens were never going to win that game.

I know ...it does sound unbelievable....but let's take a walk down USU lane for a moment...

With 4:03 left in the game USU scores a layup and takes a 76-60 lead....ball game ...right ...not yet

Fast forward to 1:11 left...with no time left on the shot clock  and USU shooting 22.7% from the arc at that point they give the ball to Brown ...0-3 from the arc in the game...who then takes a final desperation shot as the shot clock buzzer is ringing and sinks the 3.  Without that shot , the game is tied  or as we would say in the title of this thread...EVEN  at 76-76 with 18 sec left. The Bills would not have had to intentionally foul in a tie game.        At that point I would say it is anybody's game or a winnable game.

That is how close this game was....