NET Rankings

[Lord Elrond]

NET                                                                Road   Neu  Home   Q1      Q2     Q3     Q4

67	67	Dayton	Atlantic 10	14-8	2-4	1-3	11-1	0-3	1-2	4-3	9-0
81	81	VCU	Atlantic 10	16-6	3-3	1-1	12-2	1-1	1-3	6-0	8-2
85	85	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	14-6	4-3	1-1	9-2	1-3	1-1	6-1	6-1

Looking at the NET ratings, the only reason I can see for Dayton being ahead of us is that they have no Q4 losses. We have a better road record, a better neutral court record, and better Q1, Q2 and Q3 records. They have a better Q4 record, which apparently counts much more than all the rest.  Conclusion: we need to schedule cream puffs and beat up on them if the NCAA actually takes this NET garbage seriously for selection for at large bids.

[Slu let the dogs out?]

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

In last year's Madness , Rutgers got in with a 77 NET...an at large bid. 

FWIW , I had Rutgers at 62...and the Bills at 57th.  I think most ranking services had the Bills about the same  ranking as Rutgers or better....Pomeroy ...Rut @ 77 ...The Bills @ 68...Sagarin...Rut@ 63 ...Bills @ 65.

Bottom line ...Don't spend too much time fretting over the NET.  In the end ...the are going to do what they want to do. 

We know the committee isn’t going to do SLU any favors.  Which is why we need to put in ourselves in the best possible position we can (to make it as hard as possible for the committee to say no). Although it clearly doesn't matter if the committee is taking a 9th Big Ten team with a NET of 77. Thanks for the depressing read, wiz! Hilarious how much the committee loves the Big Ten and then come sweet sixteen time POOF! They’ve all disappeared!
 

[slu72]

I know very little about the net other than just win baby. I realize it weighs heavily in favor of the P6 as that’s where the most Q1 W’s can be achieved. I don’t know why the board is so obsessed with it as we have zero Q1 opportunities left. My advice is stop sweating the NET and pray for a sweep in Bklyn. 

[Slu let the dogs out?]

20 minutes ago, slu72 said:

I know very little about the net other than just win baby. I realize it weighs heavily in favor of the P6 as that’s where the most Q1 W’s can be achieved. I don’t know why the board is so obsessed with it as we have zero Q1 opportunities left. My advice is stop sweating the NET and pray for a sweep in Bklyn. 

3 ways to dance: be a member of the Big Ten,  autobid (win your conference tourney), or an at-large. We aren’t in the Big Ten. The second way in is also pretty clear. More gray area surrounding the third way in which allows MBMs such as myself the entertaining chance to speculate. Not so much an obsession as a way to fill my sleepless nights over the next 6 weeks. But I do like your advice: let’s just not lose again this year. 

[billiken_roy]

i just accept the ncaa is corrupt and assume we will always get F'd. 

[slu72]

There was a rumor in the pre NET era that the committee looked at how a team was playing the closer they got to tourney time. The idea being they wanted the field to be made up of the teams that were playing the best basketball regardless of some bad early season losses. Call it the eye test criteria. I recall Syracuse got in one year when they finished just slightly over playing a season of .500 ball but hit their stride in late Jan thru mid Feb. People whined about the eye test pick and that led us to the NET. This is why I believe even if we went undefeated but lost in the tourney file we still won’t make it. We just won’t be facing any teams that will boost our NET into the 40’s. It’s win Bklyn or bust. 

[Billiken Rich]

4 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

NET                                                                Road   Neu  Home   Q1      Q2     Q3     Q4

67	67	Dayton	Atlantic 10	14-8	2-4	1-3	11-1	0-3	1-2	4-3	9-0
81	81	VCU	Atlantic 10	16-6	3-3	1-1	12-2	1-1	1-3	6-0	8-2
85	85	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	14-6	4-3	1-1	9-2	1-3	1-1	6-1	6-1

Looking at the NET ratings, the only reason I can see for Dayton being ahead of us is that they have no Q4 losses. We have a better road record, a better neutral court record, and better Q1, Q2 and Q3 records. They have a better Q4 record, which apparently counts much more than all the rest.  Conclusion: we need to schedule cream puffs and beat up on them if the NCAA actually takes this NET garbage seriously for selection for at large bids.

The net rating takes into account margin of victory.  I assume Dayton has blown out more teams the we have.......

[gabriel]

If we go undefeated until the conference tournament, there is a 100% chance we get into the tournament.

[Billiken Rich]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i just accept the ncaa is corrupt and assume we will always get F'd. 

Yeah but bullshite runs downhill.  Thankfully we'll be less humped than teams in the the Valleys and the Maac, etc  

[courtside]

NET values among other things, margin of victory vs expected margin of victory. SLU is getting wins, but several close wins at or near expected results, against non elite teams.

KenPom is a little more transparent than NET.

SLU is not great at any of their criteria. And, they are considered bad at one of them. By far, SLU is best at offensive effeciency, 49. If SLU can improve that it would help their rating. SLU's defensive efficiency is 142. If SLU can improve this a lot, it would improve their rating. SLU's tempo rating is 106.

Mizzou for example is number 3 nationally in KenPom offensive efficiency. However they are number 181 in defense. Their tempo is 38. Their poor defensive efficency rating has them at 51 overall on KenPom as opposed to much better than that. 

Ohio State is 27 in KenPom. They have an 11-10 record overall. They destroyed many cupcakes and they have a handful of other lopsided wins over decent to good teams. They have a KenPom offense of 9 and defense of 85. They are 2-8 in Q1 games. 

KenPom is closer to NET than some other rankings, and, it's transparent as to what it values and how it defines what it values. 

 

[BigMouthBilliken]

1 vote in todays ap poll fwiw

[Bills By 40]

4 hours ago, slu72 said:

I know very little about the net other than just win baby. I realize it weighs heavily in favor of the P6 as that’s where the most Q1 W’s can be achieved. I don’t know why the board is so obsessed with it as we have zero Q1 opportunities left. My advice is stop sweating the NET and pray for a sweep in Bklyn. 

We have Q1 opportunities left at both Dayton and VCU.

 

Granted VCU is currently 6 spots out of Q1 territory but by the time we get there on 02/28 they very well may be. Dayton is 8 spots inside Q1 territory and their schedule looks easy enough to feel confident they'll stick there. 

[Compton]

56 minutes ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

1 vote in todays ap poll fwiw

And two votes in the Coaches Poll.

[Lord Elrond]

1 hour ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

1 vote in todays ap poll fwiw

The only A10 team with any votes

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

There was a rumor in the pre NET era that the committee looked at how a team was playing the closer they got to tourney time. The idea being they wanted the field to be made up of the teams that were playing the best basketball regardless of some bad early season losses. Call it the eye test criteria. I recall Syracuse got in one year when they finished just slightly over playing a season of .500 ball but hit their stride in late Jan thru mid Feb. People whined about the eye test pick and that led us to the NET. This is why I believe even if we went undefeated but lost in the tourney file we still won’t make it. We just won’t be facing any teams that will boost our NET into the 40’s. It’s win Bklyn or bust. 

I think the eye test using the final 10 games still exists ...just not inside the computer. The NET is about 80% correct.  And that's the way the NCAA likes it.  It then allows for the Committee to use the eye test or the P5 test or the good ole boys test.

On the previous NCAA model their was a cap spread limit of 10 pts...i.e.  anything after a 10 pt win would not affect the numbers.  While the NET now has an "unlimited" spread, I believe it uses a system similar to mine which is after 10 pts, the spread still counts but diminishes with each successive pt.  A 25pt win is worth more than a 20 pt win but very little more.  I concur with courtside's  premise,  that exceeding the expected margin of victory is important.  When you do what you are supposed to do, you usually move sideways.  To max out my system and the NET, you need to beat the spread by 10pts. On the surface it looks like all you have to do is have  a series of 20pt wins and you are in.  But a win by 5 over a team you were supposed to lose to by 5 is huge and in the end more valuable than a 20 pt win over a cupcake that you were supposed to beat by 15.

Those in the know on this board take my spread and add 10 to find out if the win will advance us in the rankings.  

Again, before you get to deep into the weeds...think Rutgers at 77th as an at large bid.

 

[wgstl]

nm

[wgstl]

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