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4 hours ago, Compton said:

It's shaping up to be 

NCAA Tournament: Dayton and Richmond

NIT: Rhode Island and Saint Louis

Til Richmond loses to Duquesne 

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Here's my hot take, because i love getting into semantics (i think you and i are in agreement): "one bid league" is pretty specific and describes a conference in which the winner of the conference tou

Utah State (Considered last 4in):  21-8 record— 2-4 Q1 , 2-2 Q2 , 7-2 Q3 , 10-0 Q4, SOS: 121 , Away: 4-6 Billikens (Not even considered for bubble): 20-8 record— 2-5 Q1 , 2-1 Q2 , 9-2 Q

I think Dayton is that good, but we match up well against them.  I'll take my chances against them in a third game. I think the only way to make sure we get in the tournament is to beat Dayton.  I don

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3 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

Til Richmond loses to Duquesne 

Yeah, it's not shaping up any way because one loss makes all the difference for teams on the bubble. URI 100% in control about how "it" is shaping up for "them."

For me, SLU all along has been tantalizing. They've been on the outside looking in, needing to kick it into another gear and stay there. They've gotten there with the last three games. They need to stay there for the next two and bring it to Brooklyn.

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8 hours ago, Compton said:

It's shaping up to be 

NCAA Tournament: Dayton and Richmond

NIT: Rhode Island and Saint Louis

I think that Davidson, Duq, and/or even VCU (if they can somehow turn it around beat Davidson in their final game - which probably knocks Davidson out) could make the NIT field.

This site (https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/) has Dayton in the NCAAs and Ricmond, Rhody, SLU, VCU, and Duq in the NIT.  

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With last night's results we jumped one to a NET of 56.  VCU dropped to 60, Rhode Island is at 52 and Richmond at 42.  Duquesne is at 89, meaning their only pathway to March Madness is to win the A10 tourney.  Davidson still 'in there' at 76.  Half of the league is in Top 100 NET.  If Richmond whips Duquesne on the road, they could easily move into the high 30's and post another Q2 win. 

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4 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

With last night's results we jumped one to a NET of 56.  VCU dropped to 60, Rhode Island is at 52 and Richmond at 42.  Duquesne is at 89, meaning their only pathway to March Madness is to win the A10 tourney.  Davidson still 'in there' at 76.  Half of the league is in Top 100 NET.  If Richmond whips Duquesne, they could easily move into the high 30's. 

Speak it into existence.

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It’s pretty unlikely the NIT would take 5 A10 teams. That’s only happened once this century (2002). 

Also, best case for Davidson is finishing the season 15-15. That’s probably not going to cut it for the NIT.  Only two A10 teams made the NIT in the last decade (out of 19 total appearances) with less than 20 wins (St. Joe’s 18 in 2013 and Richmond’s 19 in 2015). 

Similarly, VCU’s best possible finish is 19-12 and tied for 7th in the A10. Probably not good enough. 

And then with Duquesnse wallowing down at an 89 NET, they might get overlooked as well. 

I hope they all make it. But Dayton, Richmond, URI and SLU are emerging as the most likely post-season (NCAA & NIT) candidates at this point. 

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1 hour ago, Compton said:

It’s pretty unlikely the NIT would take 5 A10 teams. That’s only happened once this century (2002). 

Also, best case for Davidson is finishing the season 15-15. That’s probably not going to cut it for the NIT.  Only two A10 teams made the NIT in the last decade (out of 19 total appearances) with less than 20 wins (St. Joe’s 18 in 2013 and Richmond’s 19 in 2015). 

Similarly, VCU’s best possible finish is 19-12 and tied for 7th in the A10. Probably not good enough. 

And then with Duquesnse wallowing down at an 89 NET, they might get overlooked as well. 

I hope they all make it. But Dayton, Richmond, URI and SLU are emerging as the most likely post-season (NCAA & NIT) candidates at this point. 

Out of VCU, Duquesne, Davidson and St. Bonnies, someone is going to win two A10 tournament games.  We just don't know who.

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Truthfully speaking, I hope Duquesne gets to play one of the teams that present matching issues for them. Ideally they should get eliminated, this would be ideal for us as far as I am concerned.

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2 hours ago, Compton said:

It’s pretty unlikely the NIT would take 5 A10 teams. That’s only happened once this century (2002). 

Also, best case for Davidson is finishing the season 15-15. That’s probably not going to cut it for the NIT.  Only two A10 teams made the NIT in the last decade (out of 19 total appearances) with less than 20 wins (St. Joe’s 18 in 2013 and Richmond’s 19 in 2015). 

Similarly, VCU’s best possible finish is 19-12 and tied for 7th in the A10. Probably not good enough. 

And then with Duquesnse wallowing down at an 89 NET, they might get overlooked as well. 

I hope they all make it. But Dayton, Richmond, URI and SLU are emerging as the most likely post-season (NCAA & NIT) candidates at this point. 

My guess is Davidson wont make it. SLU and RI are for sures.  VCU needs to win a game or 2, the dukes have a good chance, and richmond should make the tournament. 

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16 minutes ago, wgstl said:

My guess is Davidson wont make it. SLU and RI are for sures.  VCU needs to win a game or 2, the dukes have a good chance, and richmond should make the tournament. 

this site has them as a 3rd seed in the NIT....i think we still have a chance at the NCAA if we make the finals of the A-10

 

https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology/

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Whether we finish with the 4th or 5th seed in itself should have no bearing on our At Large possibility, as long as we win the next 2.  If Duquesne finishes 4th (beating Richmond) and we finish 5th going 2-0, good for them.  Then it will be what we do in the A10 Tourney that determines our fate.

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2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Whether we finish with the 4th or 5th seed in itself should have no bearing on our At Large possibility, as long as we win the next 2.  If Duquesne finishes 4th (beating Richmond) and we finish 5th going 2-0, good for them.  Then it will be what we do in the A10 Tourney that determines our fate.

Agreed it shouldn't. Galaxy Brain me says if we get 5th (but still win these last 2 games), it could be a blessing in disguise. We would have the opportunity to add another Win to our resume. 5th isn't a death sentence by any means. That would be 25 wins instead of 24 in the hypothetical world where we lose in the finals after beating Dayton.

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What if Liberty gets beat in the A-Sun final, should they get an at large invite at 29-5?  I think their NET is like 66.  

A- Sun gives the high seed the home game, so they will be at home

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17 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

What if Liberty gets beat in the A-Sun final, should they get an at large invite at 29-5?  I think their NET is like 66.  

A- Sun gives the high seed the home game, so they will be at home

Liberty is trash.  They aren't getting an at-large.  Their schedule has been terrible - like one of the worst in D-1 bad.  They have 1 "good loss" at LSU (but they got destroyed so it not that good of a loss), 1 ok win vs Akron on a neutral court, and 3 bad losses at N Florida, at Stetson, and at Lipscomb.  The rest of it is various levels of cupcake wins.  A loss in the A-Sun final would add another bad loss to their already suspect resume and likely drop their NET into the high 70s at best.

SLU would have had a good chance to go undefeated playing their schedule.

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5 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

With last night's results we jumped one to a NET of 56.  VCU dropped to 60, Rhode Island is at 52 and Richmond at 42.  Duquesne is at 89, meaning their only pathway to March Madness is to win the A10 tourney.  Davidson still 'in there' at 76.  Half of the league is in Top 100 NET.  If Richmond whips Duquesne on the road, they could easily move into the high 30's and post another Q2 win. 

Up one in Sagarin as well to 78. He’s got us a 4 pt. favorite tonight. I’ll take a win of any kind but one of 10+ would be great.

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22 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

Previously said in other threads our net ranking is up to 53 and the umass loss has moved to a q2 which helps. Now we have more reason to cheer for umass to beat Rhode Island.

These are good developments for the Bills. 7-4 on the road should also look good to the committee. Just keep winning. Rooting path is clear: U Mass over URI, Richmond over Duquesne. Last night wasn't beautiful, but if the committee watched URI get stomped last night, that's a hard ding against them.

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8 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

These are good developments for the Bills. 7-4 on the road should also look good to the committee. Just keep winning. Rooting path is clear: U Mass over URI, Richmond over Duquesne. Last night wasn't beautiful, but if the committee watched URI get stomped last night, that's a hard ding against them.

only if you believe dayton is not that good.   i think dayton is a legit national champion contender.   if they had a better floor coach i would make them the favorite.   

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35 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

Previously said in other threads our net ranking is up to 53 and the umass loss has moved to a q2 which helps. Now we have more reason to cheer for umass to beat Rhode Island.

Want Umass to win on a buzzer beater. it'll keep RI from moving much, it'll help with our seeding, and it'll improve Umass net. 

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7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

only if you believe dayton is not that good.   i think dayton is a legit national champion contender.   if they had a better floor coach i would make them the favorite.   

I think Dayton is legit, but KU and Baylor have gotten pushed really hard in their league. It would help if somebody besides SLU would punch Dayton in the mouth, for the sake of the conference. 

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Also notable quadrant games: SIU is sitting at 167, close to moving from 4 to a 3. Gonna take a miracle but if BC moves up 16 spots it moves to a Q2 win. 

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1 minute ago, Crewsorlose said:

I think Dayton is legit, but KU and Baylor have gotten pushed really hard in their league. It would help if somebody besides SLU would punch Dayton in the mouth, for the sake of the conference. 

dayton is playing for a #1 seed.   if they lose a game between now and selection sunday, they may fall all the way to a #3 seed (f'ing bias vs mid major conferences) that is huge in the path to the final 4 and the teams they would play to get there.   i dont see dayton letting down. 

 i hope they do play down when they play us in the tourney.   whether it be us or any of the teams fighting for a double bye, beating dayton might put that team in the ncaa tourney.  

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17 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

only if you believe dayton is not that good.   i think dayton is a legit national champion contender.   if they had a better floor coach i would make them the favorite.   

Anthony Grant has done a better job of coaching his team than Hall of Famers Coach K and Tom Izzo have coaching theirs.  

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