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2 hours ago, slu72 said:

If we beat both URI and VCU and lose only to SVU the rest of the way, we'll be on everyone's last 4 in list going into conf tourney week. We don't have to beat SVU, but that's likely the only game we can afford to lose. 

Why do you keep sticking with this take? If SLU goes 8-1, it waltzes into the Tourney. as an 8 or 9 seed. That's just as obvious as the plain of day. You have this notion that a team that's ranked 68 in NET, has no bad losses, and is 17-5 needs to perform some Herculean task over the last 4 weeks to make the Tourney by the skin of their teeth. The A-10's overall strength helps us.

News flash: almost no team on the bubble is going 8-1 down the stretch. All of those teams 1-20 slots above us in NET are going to lose. A lot. And we'll pass them when they do, esp. if we go 8-1. 7-2 probably gets us a 10 seed. 

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47 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Why do you keep sticking with this take? If SLU goes 8-1, it waltzes into the Tourney. as an 8 or 9 seed. That's just as obvious as the plain of day. You have this notion that a team that's ranked 68 in NET, has no bad losses, and is 17-5 needs to perform some Herculean task over the last 4 weeks to make the Tourney by the skin of their teeth. The A-10's overall strength helps us.

News flash: almost no team on the bubble is going 8-1 down the stretch. All of those teams 1-20 slots above us in NET are going to lose. A lot. And we'll pass them when they do, esp. if we go 8-1. 7-2 probably gets us a 10 seed. 

Pretty crazy how our absolute worst loss was Davidson (Net 99) on the road.  Usually we are accustomed to one or two games that leave us absolutely shaking our heads.  While the quad 1 wins may not be there among other bubble teams, I would think the fact we had little/none let up games is attractive. 

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1 hour ago, Fraz42 said:

Pretty crazy how our absolute worst loss was Davidson (Net 99) on the road.  Usually we are accustomed to one or two games that leave us absolutely shaking our heads.  While the quad 1 wins may not be there among other bubble teams, I would think the fact we had little/none let up games is attractive. 

The NCAA selection committee is the poster child for the old saying "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder"

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If we don't close with the record I posted, we're on a bubble. Wake up! The Committee is slanted towards the P6-7. We have to finish strong. 8-1 or 7-2 and finish strong in the tourney. We are currently at 69, if we get to 40 we'll be a bubble team. Please tell me how we get to 40? 

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We get to 35 in NET by going 8-1. If we do that, we have no bad losses, a ton of Q2 victories, and a Q1 mixed in there. That team waltzes. We get to the 45-50 range by going 7-2, or by going 6-3 with one or two good wins in the A-10 tourney. UNC just jumped 4 spots to 93 by losing a close game to FSU on the road. We play 3 top 40 NET teams in our next 9. Plus #88 Duquesne tonight. Going 2-2 in those games will boost our NET. Going 5-0 in the other games will boost our NET. 

You're operating with this mistaken assumption that it's hard to go up in NET, but easy to go down. It's just not true. The 30 teams above us in NET don't have profiles much better than SLU's. If we go 8-1, that means we'll enter the A-10 tourney 10-1 in our last 11, one of the five hottest teams in major conference basketball. We'll be a lock. 

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8 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

We get to 35 in NET by going 8-1. If we do that, we have no bad losses, a ton of Q2 victories, and a Q1 mixed in there. That team waltzes. We get to the 45-50 range by going 7-2, or by going 6-3 with one or two good wins in the A-10 tourney. UNC just jumped 4 spots to 93 by losing a close game to FSU on the road. We play 3 top 40 NET teams in our next 9. Plus #88 Duquesne tonight. Going 2-2 in those games will boost our NET. Going 5-0 in the other games will boost our NET. 

You're operating with this mistaken assumption that it's hard to go up in NET, but easy to go down. It's just not true. The 30 teams above us in NET don't have profiles much better than SLU's. If we go 8-1, that means we'll enter the A-10 tourney 10-1 in our last 11, one of the five hottest teams in major conference basketball. We'll be a lock. 

We only have:

2 Q1 games left (@URI @ Dayton)

1 Q2 game left (VCU)

4 Q3 games 

2 Q4 games

We all agree we can't lose a Q3/Q4 game at this point. And we need two out of the 3 Q1/Q2 games probably, right?

So 8-1 would be a tourney bid most likely. 7-2 and we probably need to pick up a win over URI/Day/VCU in the conf tourney..

 

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42 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

We only have:

2 Q1 games left (@URI @ Dayton)

1 Q2 game left (VCU)

4 Q3 games 

2 Q4 games

We all agree we can't lose a Q3/Q4 game at this point. And we need two out of the 3 Q1/Q2 games probably, right?

So 8-1 would be a tourney bid most likely. 7-2 and we probably need to pick up a win over URI/Day/VCU in the conf tourney..

 

If one of those seven wins is @Dayton then you can almost afford 6-3 tbh. That would be as good of a win as any team in the country has

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2 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

If one of those seven wins is @Dayton then you can almost afford 6-3 tbh. That would be as good of a win as any team in the country has

Concur. Great wins mean more than a lack of bad losses. 

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We climbed 20 spots after beating Richmond going from 67 to 47 which was a Q1 win. we can defiantly climb the net rankings, the 2 big games we gotta split at least will be vcu and Rhode Island. Rhode Island should stay a Q1 game and vcu is 6 spots away from being a Q1 game. If Kansas state moves up 1 spot into a Q1 and we split Rhode Island and vcu, that’d be 3 Q1 wins.

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not to mention we'll have a good chance of playing another Q1 in Brooklyn. 

 

I still think 7 wins get us there, 8 we're in, this includes the tournament.

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1 hour ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

We climbed 20 spots after beating Richmond going from 67 to 47 which was a Q1 win. we can defiantly climb the net rankings, the 2 big games we gotta split at least will be vcu and Rhode Island. Rhode Island should stay a Q1 game and vcu is 6 spots away from being a Q1 game. If Kansas state moves up 1 spot into a Q1 and we split Rhode Island and vcu, that’d be 3 Q1 wins.

I would think our NET improves with a close loss in Dayton, no? Still need some Q1 wins though.  What would our final Q1 record be if we split VCU/Rhode Island (assuming K State and  VCU end up a Q1)?   3-5?

W: Richmond, K State, VCU/Rhode Island

L: Dayton X2, VCU/Rhode Island, Auburn, Seton Hall.

I can't imagine that record stacks up well with other bubble teams but I don't know jack squat. EDIT: After looking at the current Q1 records of VCU (1-4) and Rhode Island (1-3), both teams currently in the tourney according to Lunardi, I guess 3-5 wouldn't be horrible.

I think it may be better if we just win the last 9 games and remove all doubt...

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45 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

We climbed 20 spots after beating Richmond going from 67 to 47 which was a Q1 win. we can defiantly climb the net rankings, the 2 big games we gotta split at least will be vcu and Rhode Island. Rhode Island should stay a Q1 game and vcu is 6 spots away from being a Q1 game. If Kansas state moves up 1 spot into a Q1 and we split Rhode Island and vcu, that’d be 3 Q1 wins.

I think as the season goes on, things start to settle more which mean you wont be seeing as much of the big jumps

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We need to sweep the remaining home slate.  That is a given.  Games at UMASS and GMason as well.  We have played pretty well at Amherst and Fairfax so I believe they are winnable.  However, given the exposed underbelly that is our FT shooting, we can't play down to our competition each time.  This team needs to develop a killer instinct attitude.  No more allowing weaker teams to hang around until the end of ball games.  That is where FTs are going to burn us.  The margin of error is just too small.

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4 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

We only have:

2 Q1 games left (@URI @ Dayton)

1 Q2 game left (VCU)

4 Q3 games 

2 Q4 games

We all agree we can't lose a Q3/Q4 game at this point. And we need two out of the 3 Q1/Q2 games probably, right?

So 8-1 would be a tourney bid most likely. 7-2 and we probably need to pick up a win over URI/Day/VCU in the conf tourney..

 

Wrong. We can lose a Q3 game. A loss to the Bonnies isn't bad. Let's repeat: 8-1 is a lock for the tourney. 7-2 means the team is probably on the right side of the bubble, barring a loss to a team like GW in Brooklyn. 6-3 means a lot will depend on A-10 tourney. At 6-3, this team's NET ranking would probably be 55-60, and we'd need to notch at least one good win in Brooklyn. We get no help in the quarters if we play and beat a weaker team that scored an upset the night before. 

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18 minutes ago, Matty Light said:

We need to sweep the remaining home slate.  That is a given.  Games at UMASS and GMason as well.  We have played pretty well at Amherst and Fairfax so I believe they are winnable.  However, given the exposed underbelly that is our FT shooting, we can't play down to our competition each time.  This team needs to develop a killer instinct attitude.  No more allowing weaker teams to hang around until the end of ball games.  That is where FTs are going to burn us.  The margin of error is just too small.

I like your thinking. I imagine that Perkins will be our clock-milker in tight games. I like how we match up with VCU, as they lack the kind of guard that kills us. That game will also sell out Chaifetz. My guess is we sweep the home games but drop 3 of 4 on the road, probably all but Mason. 

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3 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Wrong. We can lose a Q3 game. A loss to the Bonnies isn't bad. Let's repeat: 8-1 is a lock for the tourney. 7-2 means the team is probably on the right side of the bubble, barring a loss to a team like GW in Brooklyn. 6-3 means a lot will depend on A-10 tourney. At 6-3, this team's NET ranking would probably be 55-60, and we'd need to notch at least one good win in Brooklyn. We get no help in the quarters if we play and beat a weaker team that scored an upset the night before. 

 

Lmao at the "Wrong" and then just continues to speculate like the rest of us.

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30 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

 

Lmao at the "Wrong" and then just continues to speculate like the rest of us.

The difference is Crewsorlose' opinions are based on actual rankings and reasonable projections of where our NET would fall with certain amount of wins or losses down the stretch. Others are all about perpetuating the "we have no chance unless we win out because the selection committee is biased against us" nonsense.

 

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2 minutes ago, kshoe said:

 

The difference is Crewsorlose' opinions are based on actual rankings and reasonable projections of where our NET would fall with certain amount of wins or losses down the stretch. Others are all about perpetuating the "we have no chance unless we win out because the selection committee is biased against us" nonsense.

 

Crewsorlose was literally responding to me and I have never said anything to the sort of us having to win out or that the selection committee is biased against us. 

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32 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Wrong. We can lose a Q3 game. A loss to the Bonnies isn't bad. Let's repeat: 8-1 is a lock for the tourney. 7-2 means the team is probably on the right side of the bubble, barring a loss to a team like GW in Brooklyn. 6-3 means a lot will depend on A-10 tourney. At 6-3, this team's NET ranking would probably be 55-60, and we'd need to notch at least one good win in Brooklyn. We get no help in the quarters if we play and beat a weaker team that scored an upset the night before. 

I feel like the discussion with @slu72 is a good one to revisit when we do play the games.  I lean more toward 72's viewpoint because if we beat the teams we should beat then lose to Dayton and Rhode Island  (likely scenario), that leaves VCU at home as our best win? That doesnt cut it in my opinion.  I am throwing the NET out at this point, (just ask St Mary's).  That would be 7-2 down the stretch.  We then beat a Duquense type and then lose in the semis to Dayton in the A10 tourney (making that 3x) assuming we are the 4 seed.  

I can already hear the national media disrespecting that resume and pushing for a Syracuse/NC St type team that wins 3 of their last 5 games.  

I agree with @slu72 and dont think 7-2 down the stretch with a loss to Dayton in the A10 tourney gets it done.  

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Agreed. 7-2 with a loss to Dayton isn’t enough to lock up an at-large by the end of conference play. Beating Dayton would kind of earn us the ability to lose to two other teams. 

The teams in the top 45 in NET just have too many Q1 and Q2 wins already in the bank for us to drop two of our remaining 3 opportunities - let alone losing a Q3 or Q4 game. 

It’s not about those current top 45 teams continuing to play super well, most of them (39 to be exact) already have at least as many combined Q1 and Q2 wins as we have wins AND opportunities for wins (we currently have a combined 5 (Q1: Richmond, Dayton, URI, Q2: K. State, VCU). 

There’s only one team in the top 45 with the same combined Q1+Q2 wins and opportunities as us - UNI. The other 5 that aren’t already ahead of where we could hope to get to (Stanford, Alabama, Miss. St., VCU and Texas Tech) all have more Q1&Q2 opportunities left than we do. No team in the top 45 has less. 

We could also gain additional Q2s by BC or (if we beat them) Duquesne, clawing their way up the ranks. But our fate is not safe in either of their hands. 

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As a longtime fan of Boston College, I'm familiar to the other side: the Selection Committee doesn't understand how tough our conference is. Everybody thinks the media is out to get them. Plenty of non P-6 conferences have gotten some of the Last 4 in. BC fans still licking their wounds over snubs from 2002. The ACC is getting 4 of 14 teams this year. They'll look at the A-10 getting 3 and scream bloody murder. 

I don't mean to come off brusque to @glazedandconfused, it's more the general attitude on the board. Teams like UVa and Michigan do have a lot more opportunities. Basically every game in the Big 10 is an opportunity for a good victory. A lot of those teams will blow chances. If both SLU and UVa close out their seasons 6-4, UVA will benefit. But the sheer math of it is that the bubble teams in the stronger conferences will fall out.

Right now SLU isn't even on the bubble. They need to win some games, otherwise it's elementary. Any formula of 7-2 has us looking really good. And you're smoking crack if you think that 8-1 leaves any doubt at all to the committee, which is far less biased than we think.

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43 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

As a longtime fan of Boston College, I'm familiar to the other side: the Selection Committee doesn't understand how tough our conference is. Everybody thinks the media is out to get them. Plenty of non P-6 conferences have gotten some of the Last 4 in. BC fans still licking their wounds over snubs from 2002. The ACC is getting 4 of 14 teams this year. They'll look at the A-10 getting 3 and scream bloody murder. 

I don't mean to come off brusque to @glazedandconfused, it's more the general attitude on the board. Teams like UVa and Michigan do have a lot more opportunities. Basically every game in the Big 10 is an opportunity for a good victory. A lot of those teams will blow chances. If both SLU and UVa close out their seasons 6-4, UVA will benefit. But the sheer math of it is that the bubble teams in the stronger conferences will fall out.

Right now SLU isn't even on the bubble. They need to win some games, otherwise it's elementary. Any formula of 7-2 has us looking really good. And you're smoking crack if you think that 8-1 leaves any doubt at all to the committee, which is far less biased than we think.

The problem is the Net groups wins in Quads. Non P-6 conference schools don't get the opportunity to get those wins in conference often and the P6 schools won't play them on equal footing. It may not be a bias when selection time comes per se. However the criteria has been stacked to benefit P6 schools so that a bias isn't actually needed

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I feel like this evened out with the way home and road victories are weighted differently. We just need BC and Kansas St. to win a few to reap that benefit.

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With so many people saying there will be some P5 conferences practically getting 90% of their teams in, it looks like the Mid-Majors are going to be few and far between.  I find it harder to root for a SEC, or Big Ten “Cinderella” than I do a SFA.  Hoping the next couple of weeks knock some P5 bubble teams out of the discussion.

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