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17 minutes ago, wgstl said:

looking at the remainder schedule, we should go 6-3(7-2 best, 5-4 worst) which puts us at 23-8(12-6) which may be 3rd or 4th seed.  My guess is 1-1 so a final record of 24-9.  Most NIT at large teams are around 20 wins.  

We are trying to get into the Big Dance not the little dance.

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20 minutes ago, wgstl said:

looking at the remainder schedule, we should go 6-3(7-2 best, 5-4 worst) which puts us at 23-8(12-6) which may be 3rd or 4th seed.  My guess is 1-1 so a final record of 24-9.  Most NIT at large teams are around 20 wins.  

We're going to win the A10 Tourney so it won't matter.

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19 minutes ago, Slufan10 said:

We are trying to get into the Big Dance not the little dance.

which is what im saying. 

24-9 with a decent sos typically lands in the tournament, not the NIT. 

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It's fun/stressful to be "one game at a time" already. We have to beat the Dukes to keep this conversation alive. Everybody get loud Wednesday! !

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1 minute ago, RiseAndGrind said:

It's fun/stressful to be "one game at a time" already. We have to beat the Dukes to keep this conversation alive. Everybody get loud Wednesday! !

Snow predicted again. Plan accordingly.

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What scares me is in 2017-18. St. Mary's was 28-5 and ranked #20 on Selection Sunday, and no NCAA bid

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9 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

What scares me is in 2017-18. St. Mary's was 28-5 and ranked #20 on Selection Sunday, and no NCAA bid

or like mo state a few years back, had a RPI of like 30th and didnt get in. 

 

luckily this isnt a common occurrence 

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It's nice that we are getting a wee bit of notice as a potential bubble team, but unless we go 8-1 and make the final game of the tourney, we're likely not to be dancing. But we really never expected to be this year anyways, so how can anyone be disappointed? 

Actually, we should be very pleased with our being 17-5. I just looked at the standings and see where St Bs (our pain in the arse team recently) and see they're at 6-3 too. Their 3 losses have come at the hands of the 3 lead dogs in the A10, SVU, URI, and VCU. In their 6 wins they have handled the lower tier teams fairly easily, while, except for Richmond, our games against the lower tier teams have been very tight affairs. 

This indicates to me games against St B's and Duquesne are gonna be toss ups. Bottom line is, we're gonna have nail biters the rest of the way home even against the lower tier teams. If we close out at 6-3 this will have been a successful season for us. 

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8 minutes ago, slu72 said:

It's nice that we are getting a wee bit of notice as a potential bubble team, but unless we go 8-1 and make the final game of the tourney, we're likely not to be dancing. But we really never expected to be this year anyways, so how can anyone be disappointed? 

 

You're always a bit of a pessimist but this a bit too much for even you..... 

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13 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

You're always a bit of a pessimist but this a bit too much for even you..... 

I'm the mayor of Realville. I like the blue kool aid as much as anyone and want to surprised just like last season, but given the results of our 9 conf games we're not an elite A10 team. Why kid ourselves. I'll happily eat the crow if I'm proven wrong. I still say this has been a very good season for our Bills considering all the new pieces. 

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31 minutes ago, slu72 said:

It's nice that we are getting a wee bit of notice as a potential bubble team, but unless we go 8-1 and make the final game of the tourney, we're likely not to be dancing. But we really never expected to be this year anyways, so how can anyone be disappointed? 

Actually, we should be very pleased with our being 17-5. I just looked at the standings and see where St Bs (our pain in the arse team recently) and see they're at 6-3 too. Their 3 losses have come at the hands of the 3 lead dogs in the A10, SVU, URI, and VCU. In their 6 wins they have handled the lower tier teams fairly easily, while, except for Richmond, our games against the lower tier teams have been very tight affairs. 

This indicates to me games against St B's and Duquesne are gonna be toss ups. Bottom line is, we're gonna have nail biters the rest of the way home even against the lower tier teams. If we close out at 6-3 this will have been a successful season for us. 

If we go 8-1 + 2-1, and don't go to the NCAA tournament, I'll buy your season tickets next year. That's a lock for the NCAA tournament. 

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Time for my yearly plea to either add to dance by adding a big fat play-in round instead of 4 make it 16. Or better yet let everyone play like in HS. 

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7 minutes ago, slu72 said:

I'm the mayor of Realville. I like the blue kool aid as much as anyone and want to surprised just like last season, but given the results of our 9 conf games we're not an elite A10 team. Why kid ourselves. I'll happily eat the crow if I'm proven wrong. I still say this has been a very good season for our Bills considering all the new pieces. 

I agree with 72.  Look at the record prediction that were made by this board pre-season.  This team is going to end up being at the top end of what folks predicted.  That, my friends, equals a good season.

The problem comes in where fans start to get excited about the idea of making the tournament and then are upset when the team doesn't get in even though the team performed better than that those same fans predicted before the season.  Fans who do that will always be disappointed in the teams they cheer for, because they base their expectations on the moment in the season where their team was performing the best and had the brightest outlook.

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2 hours ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

Please tell me you also have kids that watch Annoying Orange videos on YouTube all freaking day. I just want to know I'm not the only one suffering out there....

AO is my worst nightmare. We have an AO stuffed animal thing. My 9 y/o can get obsessed over those damn videos then the 7 y/o joins in.

Hell on earth.

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8 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

If we go 8-1 + 2-1, and don't go to the NCAA tournament, I'll buy your season tickets next year. That's a lock for the NCAA tournament. 

I said UNLESS we go 8-1 and 2-1 we're likely NOT going to make it. Point being we have to finish extremely strong and those numbers are extreme for this team.

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9 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I agree with 72.  Look at the record prediction that were made by this board pre-season.  This team is going to end up being at the top end of what folks predicted.  That, my friends, equals a good season.

The problem comes in where fans start to get excited about the idea of making the tournament and then are upset when the team doesn't get in even though the team performed better than that those same fans predicted before the season.  Fans who do that will always be disappointed in the teams they cheer for, because they base their expectations on the moment in the season where their team was performing the best and had the brightest outlook.

It makes absolutely zero sense not to adjust preseason expectations if a team with 7 newcomers is outperforming those relatively uneducated predictions. 

Similarly, many peoples expectations of this team also got lowered when GJ went down. A season is a long ever-changing journey. Adjust accordingly. 

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8 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

It makes absolutely zero sense not to adjust preseason expectations if a team with 7 newcomers is outperforming those relatively uneducated predictions. 

Similarly, many peoples expectations of this team also got lowered when GJ went down. A season is a long ever-changing journey. Adjust accordingly. 

If we had Fred and Gibson we'd be an elite A10 team. I'd be checking out travel deals to the opening sites. 

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11 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

It makes absolutely zero sense not to adjust preseason expectations if a team with 7 newcomers is outperforming those relatively uneducated predictions. 

Similarly, many peoples expectations of this team also got lowered when GJ went down. A season is a long ever-changing journey. Adjust accordingly. 

Those same 7 newcomers have also performed poorly at times and, thus, we are where we are.

If, as a fan of a team like the Billikens, you thought they would come in 6th, 7th, 8th in their league, and they end up coming in 3rd or 4th, that should be a good thing.  It should make you happy about your team and about being a fan of that team.

However, if you think their going to finish 6-8, they actually finish 3-4, and then at the end of the season you're upset and look at the season as not being successful, because you changed your expectations based upon limited evaluation of certain results that occurred during the season, then you are at fault, not the team or the coaches, for your own disappointment.

I hope this team makes the tournament.  That would make me very happy.  However, if they don't but still exceeded mine, and most other's, expectations, I will consider this season a success.

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2 hours ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

We're going to win the A10 Tourney so it won't matter.

It has been decided! Bandwagon St. Louis Chief fans, jump on board (I was going to say the Billiken train, but I don't want to trigger anyone on this board)!

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1 minute ago, TheChosenOne said:

It has been decided!

That would make me jump over the moon! 

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1 minute ago, cgeldmacher said:

Those same 7 newcomers have also performed poorly at times and, thus, we are where we are.

If, as a fan of a team like the Billikens, you thought they would come in 6th, 7th, 8th in their league, and they end up coming in 3rd or 4th, that should be a good thing.  It should make you happy about your team and about being a fan of that team.

However, if you think their going to finish 6-8, they actually finish 3-4, and then at the end of the season you're upset and look at the season as not being successful, because you changed your expectations based upon limited evaluation of certain results that occurred during the season, then you are at fault, not the team or the coaches, for your own disappointment.

I hope this team makes the tournament.  That would make be very happy.  However, if they don't but still exceeded mine, and most other's, expectations, I will consider this season a success.

That makes less than zero sense. Our pre-season predictions/expectations are just guesses. No one knew how Perkins/Collins/Bell/Jimerson/Weaver/Jacobs/Hankton/Diarra/Hargrove/Thatch were going to play. So yes it does make way more sense to update expectations after seeing the team play some games. If not, you're just guessing at the beginning of the year?

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So, if we don't make the tournament, you will consider this year ... what?  Failure, disappointment... what?  Will you think that the coaching failed?  Will you be disappointed in the players?

I have the ability to have expectations and to change them as we move along through a season without being an damn debbie downer every year.  If they have a bad year, I recognize that.  If they have a good year, I recognize and appreciate and enjoy that even if, at some point in the season, I thought we had a chance at making the tournament but ended up not making it.  If you don't have the ability to do that, I pity you.  It would seem that having that attitude will almost always make you disappointed in the teams you cheer for.

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6 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

So, if we don't make the tournament, you will consider this year ... what?  Failure, disappointment... what?

No haha not at all. I didn't say that either. If we don't make the tourney (but finish the year decently) I will be slightly disappointed, but happy the team exceeded my expectations (both pre-season and throughout).

Re-adjusting expectations as the season goes on doesn't mean you expect an NCAA auto-bid after every win or us to lose the rest of our games after every loss. There's a middle ground.

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My guess:

25+ wins = lock

24 wins = highly likely

23 wins = things need to go our way 

22 wins = just short 

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