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The Wiz

Rich over The Bills by 6

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A painful but nice win over GW.  Another game where The Bills played to their competition. If that holds true, this upcoming game should be a good one as we raise our game up a notch. If not it could be a long evening.  Not to harp on a subject but FTs will play a big part in this game.  The Bills are 2nd worst ITN...Richmond is 3rd best ITN....largest FT spread ever....In % we shoot 57% ...they shoot 80%.     While we could see a repeat of the GW "hack a Bill" strategy it wont show up right away or at all if it is not a close game.  The reason for this is the Spyders have a good offense and have many ways to win.

Let's check the report card to see what we are up against....

 

..............................SLU...........................Rich.............................................SLU...............................Rich

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C..............................B................................................B......................................C+

FG%.........................C...............................B+........................................... ..B+...................................B-

3Pt%........................C-..............................A.................................................D.....................................B

FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.....A+...3rd  ITN .......................................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................D................................................C-....................................F+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....9th  ITN....unchanged

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....FTs up from worst to 2nd worst...thank god for Army...a team that can't shoot straight........... DOWN....PPG

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...30th.....down

Assts...Collins....37th...down

Rebs...Goodwin..14th.....French...19th...up and up

Blks.....French....19th...up

Stls.....Gilyard....1st 

Assts....Gilyard...33rd

Richmond ....fewest TOs...10th  ITN

Injury report...

Ruch...None reported

SLU.....Thatch....Out indefinitely....Myalgia...lower leg muscles....No timetable for return

WWN2D2W........A lot.....This will be a tough game ,,, a high powered offense and a pretty good D.....3 three pt shooters and one of the best FT teams ITN (3rd)....Their only weakness is rebounding....we will have to dominate reb by at least 7...contain scoring ...slow the game down...hold them to no more than  65 pts...the lower the score the better our chances....score first and then go into a stall...just kidding on the stall...Don't foul them...it is like an auto basket if they go to the line....protect the ball....we need to match them in TOs....no more than 11....which will be tough  as Gilyard leads the nation in steals....finally a good slash...48/33/60

Bottom line....If we play a full 40 min of focused basketball and keep the score low...we can win ....If we go cold or start turning the ball over....it is over

Focus and win....Go Bills

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Just curious: why haven’t you been including Jimerson in the injury report?

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29 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

Just curious: why haven’t you been including Jimerson in the injury report?

He is out for the season...there will be no additional updates on him for this season.

 

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Yikes, this write up looks like the situation is more dire than I thought.  

Refs will decide the game in my opinion.  If they let us muck it up, hard trap, and call no fouls, then we might have a shot.  I actually think Dayton at home is more winnable than this one.

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Big game. Be nice to steal a roadie against them. 

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20 minutes ago, 757billiken said:

Anyone going? I'll be there with my son.  Not many seats left.

I’m in DC and trying to convince the wife.  Chances at 5%

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wifey should have known the billikens were part of the deal when she married you.   she's had plenty of time to adjust. 

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

He is out for the season...there will be no additional updates on him for this season.

 

Thanks.

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1 hour ago, 757billiken said:

Anyone going? I'll be there with my son.  Not many seats left.

my son is going, i couldnt make the trip this year, i think he will be behind th billiken bench

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1 hour ago, SLU_Nick said:

I’m in DC and trying to convince the wife.  Chances at 5%

I always remind my wife that I was a Billiken fan long before I was a fan of hers.

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We are 10-8 all time against Richmond and a respectable 4-5 at Robbins. 

Last season, in a home loss and a tourney win, Golden scored a combined 43 points, Gilyard 36 and Cayo 33.  Golden has been a nightmare match-up for us.  Add Francis and Sherod to the mix, and yes it will be a challenge.

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-kind of surprised to see from the Wiz that we don't need to out rebound Rich by more than 7

-our fouls and turnovers need to be low along with their 3pt makes

 

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If memory serves, in the A10 tourney  game against UR, Golden was killing us in the first half, then in the 2nd we shut him down. Not sure what the adjustment was, but it worked. Might want to use that right from the get go. 

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5 minutes ago, slu72 said:

If memory serves, in the A10 tourney  game against UR, Golden was killing us in the first half, then in the 2nd we shut him down. Not sure what the adjustment was, but it worked. Might want to use that right from the get go. 

16 points first half, 4 points second half.  Perhaps we elected to actually guard him?

https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2018-19/richmond/boxscore/7567

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15 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-kind of surprised to see from the Wiz that we don't need to out rebound Rich by more than 7

-our fouls and turnovers need to be low along with their 3pt makes

 

I mentioned that we need to out rebound by at least 7.  The reason I didn't go higher is that Golden can be a rebounding machine....if we can contain him( 6 or less) then we could dominate the boards by double figures.... We also need to control his scoring...no more than 13pts. ....while they do have others that can score controlling Golden on the boards and scoring would be a big step toward victory.

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52 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

16 points first half, 4 points second half.  Perhaps we elected to actually guard him?

https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2018-19/richmond/boxscore/7567

this is kinda correct.  first half he was out beyond the 3 point line hitting shots.   second half we had a player go out there and put a hand up.   wasnt a matter we denied him the ball if my memory is correct.   

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58 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I mentioned that we need to out rebound by at least 7.  The reason I didn't go higher is that Golden can be a rebounding machine....if we can contain him( 6 or less) then we could dominate the boards by double figures.... We also need to control his scoring...no more than 13pts. ....while they do have others that can score controlling Golden on the boards and scoring would be a big step toward victory.

-I get it, would have thought the floor would have been 10 or 11

-in any case, let's just get it done

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I mentioned that we need to out rebound by at least 7.  The reason I didn't go higher is that Golden can be a rebounding machine....if we can contain him( 6 or less) then we could dominate the boards by double figures.... We also need to control his scoring...no more than 13pts. ....while they do have others that can score controlling Golden on the boards and scoring would be a big step toward victory.

So they're F on defensive rebs and we're A+ on the same end of the floor - is that not as significant as the FTs?

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I see this as the second real test of the A10 season ..... the first taking a good record into Duquesne against a equally good record and getting our *sses handed to us there.  That started the downward trend for us for me that includes the two squeaker home games against lower level (supposedly) teams and here now comes Richmond. At Richmond.  

Schedule:  Richmond comes in at 12 and 3 and their biggest tilts were in the Legends Classic at Barclays back around Thanksgiving where they beat Wisconsin by ten before losing to Auburn by 14.  They have also lost a true road game at Alabama and a neutral site game against in-state foe Radford at something called the DC Sports and Entertainment Arena which is not the Verizon Center but across the river in SE DC.  Home to DC's G League entry.  Near the old Bolling Air Force Base.  Radford is now 7 and 7, Wisconsin 9 and 6, and Alabama 8 and 6.

I am still not sold on Richmond nor Duquesne for the same reason --- five man team.  But both have shown that it is working so far.  Each of their starting five plays over 25 mpg and last game averaged almost 30 mpg.  Last year's two emergency starters --- Jake Wojcik and Andre Gustavson --- get 10 and 18 mpg respectively.  You might see Tyler Burton, you might see Soulemayne Kourreisi.  All four are nothing more than placeholders to rest the starters should they need it or are in foul trouble.  Wojcik can and does shoot threes.

They are not big.  Golden goes 6'10" and Cayo 6'7".  Cayo is a garbage player --- and I mean that with all due respect --- ala Landers and Mikesell.  You can't ignore him.  Golden averages about 13 with the three guards Gilyard, Francis and Sherrod allover 12 ppg.  

How did they lose to Radford?  Simply put, bad shooting night in a strange gym.  In that game, Richmond shot 36% from the floor and 29% from three.  This is 10 percentage points lower from the field and ditto from three.  Radford beat them by playing four guards and this got Richmond's bigs in foul trouble.  We have to find some defensive mojo between now and tomorrow.  

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Giving up 80 pts to UMass was not encouraging by any means for a team that prides itself on playing bully ball defense. Travis' history has been his teams get better as the season progresses and it all starts with the D. Right now it seems like D is an afterthought. It seems we've gone away from the press and content now to stop teams in the half court. But we still seem to struggle with defending the 3 ball. As we all know, great D will win you more games than great O. I'd like to see us get back to playing way better on D. I'm not a fan of Spoon's theory that as long as you're outscoring your man, D doesn't matter. Good D is there every night, or should be, while O can be a flighty mistress. We'll need to create TOs and convert those into easy baskets to beat Richmond, or anyone else for that matter. So says, Captain Obvious.  

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im gonna be in the minority on this but I think Bell should guard Golden. While Golden can shoot the 3, he isnt exactly good at it.  Unless we now all consider Perkins to be good at shooting the 3.  I think you need Bell to play a lot because they only have one 1 big.  Cayo will have to match up with either french or Bell, big advantage for us either way.  If we only play either french or Bell, this heavily favors Richmond. Golden doesn't foul, so the tactic used against GW will not work. 

 

Really need a good defensive performance from Jacobs.  He matches up well defensively in this game. He's fast but has size to match their fast and small guards. 

 

Weaver's 3 point Defense is what worries me the most. 

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16 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Giving up 80 pts to UMass was not encouraging by any means for a team that prides itself on playing bully ball defense. Travis' history has been his teams get better as the season progresses and it all starts with the D. Right now it seems like D is an afterthought. It seems we've gone away from the press and content now to stop teams in the half court. But we still seem to struggle with defending the 3 ball. As we all know, great D will win you more games than great O. I'd like to see us get back to playing way better on D. I'm not a fan of Spoon's theory that as long as you're outscoring your man, D doesn't matter. Good D is there every night, or should be, while O can be a flighty mistress. We'll need to create TOs and convert those into easy baskets to beat Richmond, or anyone else for that matter. So says, Captain Obvious.  

We gave up 73 points in regulation to UMASS on 40% FG and 29% from 3 and forced 25 turnovers. That's a good performnce...plus UMASS is a fine offensive team so far this year. 

Not saying it was perfect but it was far from a bad performance and we just held GW to 56 pts on 38% FG and 25% from 3.  

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5 minutes ago, wgstl said:

im gonna be in the minority on this but I think Bell should guard Golden. While Golden can shoot the 3, he isnt exactly good at it.  Unless we now all consider Perkins to be good at shooting the 3.  I think you need Bell to play a lot because they only have one 1 big.  Cayo will have to match up with either french or Bell, big advantage for us either way.  If we only play either french or Bell, this heavily favors Richmond. Golden doesn't foul, so the tactic used against GW will not work. 

 

Really need a good defensive performance from Jacobs.  He matches up well defensively in this game. He's fast but has size to match their fast and small guards. 

 

Weaver's 3 point Defense is what worries me the most. 

Agree re: Bell. 

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