GDT BC: Where Eagles Die

[Clock_Tower]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

I agree on Perkins should play a lot. I hope our starting lineup going forward is: Collins, JGood, Jimerson, Bell, French. But Bell comes out after the 4-5 minute mark and Perkins gets inserted. I think our offense runs the smoothest thru Yurimania. JGood is our most adaptable player, so he doesn't really even need a position designation. To get off to quicker starts I'd like to see how Jimerson can do right from the opening bell. And Jacobs, while I like him, is just not assertive enough out there. French needs no explanation. Bell just to get him some minutes. Not sure how well he'd do coming off the bench cold. But I agree Perkins should get more minutes going forward. I wouldn't disagree with him starting. 

One disappointment has been Hankton. I expected with him buffing up he'd be a legit stretch 4. So far, meh. 

72.  No need to put undue pressure on Yuri and to remove the starting PG title from Goodwin.  Let Yuri develop first. Same with Perkins. Frankly, neither Yuri nor Perkins have yet earned the right to start.  
And again, the fact that you are mentioning starting lineups means there is a benefit to being a starter.  If starting is only for highschool, then why the topic?

I like Yuri and want him to play. But he needs to pick his game up. We cannot have guys play the minutes he does and not score. 0-5 is not worthy of a starter.  And his FTs have been equally bad.  
I trust in Coach Ford.

[slu72]

4 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

72.  No need to put undue pressure on Yuri and to remove the starting PG title from Goodwin.  Let Yuri develop first. Same with Perkins. Frankly, neither Yuri nor Perkins have yet earned the right to start.  
And again, the fact that you are mentioning starting lineups means there is a benefit to being a starter.  If starting is only for highschool, then why the topic?

I like Yuri and want him to play. But he needs to pick his game up. We cannot have guys play the minutes he does and not score. 0-5 is not worthy of a starter.  And his FTs have been equally bad.  
I trust in Coach Ford.

Yuri doesn't see himself as a scorer, but there were a couple of wide open 3s available to him yesterday. I was yelling "take it, Yuri". I think his scoring will come, never to a big #, but right now he's been pretty good at setting guys up to score. Give him time. Perkins is more assertive on the floor than Jacobs. He's looking to get points and his board work helped yesterday. I didn't peg him as a starter, but it wouldn't bother me if he got the nod. 

[willie]

6 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

72.  No need to put undue pressure on Yuri and to remove the starting PG title from Goodwin.  Let Yuri develop first. Same with Perkins. Frankly, neither Yuri nor Perkins have yet earned the right to start.  
And again, the fact that you are mentioning starting lineups means there is a benefit to being a starter.  If starting is only for highschool, then why the topic?

I like Yuri and want him to play. But he needs to pick his game up. We cannot have guys play the minutes he does and not score. 0-5 is not worthy of a starter.  And his FTs have been equally bad.  
I trust in Coach Ford.

Don’t agree .We are a better team when Yuri is on the floor. If nothing else it let’s Goodwin go for offensive rebounds. Several of the layups Yuri has missed have turned into offensive put backs by French and Goodwin. Ford knows what he is doing. All Yuri needs to do is eliminate the lazy turnovers. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

16 minutes ago, willie said:

Don’t agree .We are a better team when Yuri is on the floor. If nothing else it let’s Goodwin go for offensive rebounds. Several of the layups Yuri has missed have turned into offensive put backs by French and Goodwin. Ford knows what he is doing. All Yuri needs to do is eliminate the lazy turnovers. 

Yuri running the point frees Goodwin to dominate inside.  Goodwin gets the loose balls, is a great offensive rebounder.  Goodwin posts up those smaller guards, who have no chance.  We saw him do that in last year's A10 Tournament.

[glazedandconfused]

15 minutes ago, willie said:

Don’t agree .We are a better team when Yuri is on the floor. If nothing else it let’s Goodwin go for offensive rebounds. Several of the layups Yuri has missed have turned into offensive put backs by French and Goodwin. Ford knows what he is doing. All Yuri needs to do is eliminate the lazy turnovers. 

I think Yuri is an important piece of this team and future teams. His progression is vital if we want to reach the level of top tier A10 teams, but through 7 games there’s no real proof that we are a better team with Yuri on the court, yet.

 

Box Plus Minus is obviously not a perfect stat but interesting to see such a dip with Collins and Perkins. Most likely attributable to Collins with so many turnovers and Perkins with such a high usage rate and a low shooting percentage.
 

[slufanskip]

20 minutes ago, willie said:

Don’t agree .We are a better team when Yuri is on the floor. If nothing else it let’s Goodwin go for offensive rebounds. Several of the layups Yuri has missed have turned into offensive put backs by French and Goodwin. Ford knows what he is doing. All Yuri needs to do is eliminate the lazy turnovers. 

Agreed. Yuri also creates opportunities no one else can. Sometimes there not even fancy, like hitting Jimerson in the corner just as he crosses the half court line. No one else on our team makes that pass. How many times already this year has he made one pass from the backcourt to an easy layup. He needs to realize though (and he will get it) that everyone is more athletic at this level and the soft pass he made in HS doesn't work at this level. His intensity level needs to be high 100% of the time not 90%. I love Yuri Collins and believe when he's done he'll go down on my list of favorite Bills along with Marquee, Jett, Harris, H, Claggett, and Lisch. Goodwin and French are knocking on the door. 

 

[Clock_Tower]

12 minutes ago, willie said:

Don’t agree .We are a better team when Yuri is on the floor. If nothing else it let’s Goodwin go for offensive rebounds. Several of the layups Yuri has missed have turned into offensive put backs by French and Goodwin. Ford knows what he is doing. All Yuri needs to do is eliminate the lazy turnovers. 

In some regards yes.  In others, no.  Goodwin, Bell and French cannot shoot from perimeter. And if Yuri doesn’t either, then spacing is not good. We need Thatch, Jacobs, Jimerson, Weaver and Perkins to make more 3 pointers.  Until they do, we need to be careful. Coach Ford is juggling 10 guys - not 5.  What’s the next 5 like?  And substitutions?  I like Yuri but like Goodwin at PG too.  And Yuri playing 3/4 of the game, coming in as a spark is good for now - and better for Yuri longterm. 

[3star_recruit]

3 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I think Yuri is an important piece of this team and future teams. His progression is vital if we want to reach the level of top tier A10 teams, but through 7 games there’s no real proof that we are a better team with Yuri on the court, yet.

 

Box Plus Minus is obviously not a perfect stat but interesting to see such a dip with Collins and Perkins. Most likely attributable to Collins with so many turnovers and Perkins with such a high usage rate and a low shooting percentage.
 

Collins hurt his wrist and has been much less effective the last three games. The wrist will eventually get better and he'll be back to racking up assists.

[Clock_Tower]

3 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Agreed. Yuri also creates opportunities no one else can. Sometimes there not even fancy, like hitting Jimerson in the corner just as he crosses the half court line. No one else on our team makes that pass. How many times already this year has he made one pass from the backcourt to an easy layup. He needs to realize though (and he will get it) that everyone is more athletic at this level and the soft pass he made in HS doesn't work at this level. His intensity level needs to be high 100% of the time not 90%. I love Yuri Collins and believe when he's done he'll go down on my list of favorite Bills along with Marquee, Jett, Harris, H, Claggett, and Lisch. Goodwin and French are knocking on the door. 

 

So if Yuri starts, he plays 40 minutes instead of 30?   Or does he just play his same 30 minutes in a different order?   And our team will be better if Yuri’s 30 minutes include the opening tip?  Will Yuri make more of the passes you describe if his 30 minutes include the opening tip?  Not following you. 

[slufanskip]

1 minute ago, Clock_Tower said:

So if Yuri starts, he plays 40 minutes instead of 30?   Or does he just play his same 30 minutes in a different order?   And our team will be better if Yuri’s 30 minutes include the opening tip?  Will Yuri make more of the passes you describe if his 30 minutes include the opening tip?  Not following you. 

I don't follow you. You seemed to be questioning a point I didn't make. Do you not believe Yuri creates opportunities no one else on our team creates?  I like the starting lineup as it is. I didn't say Yuri should start or that he should play 30 or 40 minutes. I think Yuri is more effective with a perimeter shooter on the floor with him such as Jimerson as that makes it harder to defend the pass down low when you have to defend the kick out. 

I think French is the best rebounder (no slight to Goodwin) and we're better with him on the floor. That doesn't mean I think he should play 40 minutes or he will rebound better or worse depending on which minutes he's on the floor. 

I think our most productive 4 offensively is French, Goodwin, Yuri Jimerson. I'm not sold on the 5th yet and it may depend on opponent. I could make a case for Jacobs, Perkins, or Thatch. However, with that said, that doesn't mean I think they should all start, be on the court 40 minutes, or only together. Games have ebb's and flow's and your 5 on the floor depends on many factors. 

[Sheltiedave]

Box plus minus is a poor tracker on certain stats. It is a per possession metric, so scoring, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, all basically are assigned the same weighted value. Look at Yuri Collins.

If you start at a -2 value, and assume he is a rank of 300 scoring, 65 rebounding, 17 assists, 250 steals, and 275 turnovers, he will average out at the 181st position fo PG, slightly below median, which is exactly where he is pegged on bpm.

However, you look at the needs of the team, and look at the skill set each of the guards offer in a point slot, it is immediately obvious the guard who can push pace, set up others with a pass, and be the 17th best assist guard in the country is Collins.

We need assists, pace, and defense from our pg, and Collins gives us assists, pace, defense and rebounding. As a true freshman with only one good chicken wing, 17th in the nation for assists is incredible. We don’t need scoring from him in most games, and with his injured wrist he has wisely dialed his jumpers off.

 

[HoosierPal]

Today the BC win calculates out as a Quad 3 win. We are 1-1 in Quad 2 games (Belmont the win and Seton Hall the L) and then 4-0 in Quad 4 games. These Q2 and Q3 games quite likely will move quadrants once conference seasons start. Quad 4 games will likely stay in Q4. 

[Clock_Tower]

18 hours ago, slufanskip said:

I don't follow you. You seemed to be questioning a point I didn't make. Do you not believe Yuri creates opportunities no one else on our team creates?  I like the starting lineup as it is. I didn't say Yuri should start or that he should play 30 or 40 minutes. I think Yuri is more effective with a perimeter shooter on the floor with him such as Jimerson as that makes it harder to defend the pass down low when you have to defend the kick out. 

I think French is the best rebounder (no slight to Goodwin) and we're better with him on the floor. That doesn't mean I think he should play 40 minutes or he will rebound better or worse depending on which minutes he's on the floor. 

I think our most productive 4 offensively is French, Goodwin, Yuri Jimerson. I'm not sold on the 5th yet and it may depend on opponent. I could make a case for Jacobs, Perkins, or Thatch. However, with that said, that doesn't mean I think they should all start, be on the court 40 minutes, or only together. Games have ebb's and flow's and your 5 on the floor depends on many factors. 

Skip.  No problem   SLU72 is still pushing for Yuri to start.  Like everyone, I too like what Yuri brings but would not start him - not yet.   Willie disagreed.   Then you started your post with "Agreed..."   Sorry about that but I took that as you as agreed that Yuri should start.   

As mentioned, Coach Ford is trying to teach and fold in 10 or 11 guys.   I prefer the current lineup - though not sure of late bc Thatch has been ill. 

[slu72]

Yuri's A to TO ratio is currently 1.67, which ranks him at 214 in country. Not stellar, but 2nd on team. Weaver's at 2.1. Yuri's ratio has dropped as competition gets better. Also, he's dealing with a wrist or hand injury. I agree that he's got to clean up the lazy passes. Can't get away with that at this level. Many years of them have been trying to force an A with high risk. Again, he might have got those in HS but won't  at the D1 level. I chalk this up to his learning the game. Hopefully, Ford's critiquing these errors with him, and we can expect his ratio will improve over the season. 

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Skip.  No problem   SLU72 is still pushing for Yuri to start.  Like everyone, I too like what Yuri brings but would not start him - not yet.   Willie disagreed.   Then you started your post with "Agreed..."   Sorry about that but I took that as you as agreed that Yuri should start.   

As mentioned, Coach Ford is trying to teach and fold in 10 or 11 guys.   I prefer the current lineup - though not sure of late bc Thatch has been ill. 

I don't think Willie even said Yuri should start, at least not in the post I responded to. He said we were better with Yuri on the floor. Either way I think we are saying the same thing

[Old guy]

Thank you Sheltie Dave and Hoosier Pal, it is obvious to me that you are looking at competitive basketball as a dynamic situation that changes with events and in time and is only partially determined by prior events and performance. I think this is a much better approach than models based primarily on past stats and events plus fudge factors. I cannot say I have the depth of knowledge to really understand your models but that is OK with me, I get it.

One thing that may or may not be a developing concern with the bills is Hankton's injury. If this is a replay of last year's injury (meaning a re injury or a chronic injury) his play time and performance may be curtailed, pehaps for the remaining of the season. Our deep bench will become a bit shallower as a result, and as time passes this may become significant in terms of dynamic models. Will this mean that Diarra will come into play for some (probably minor) degree, or that Hargrove will be called in? Any of these issues as they develop in a year may have significant results both good and bad for the rest of the season.

An example of an unexpected good result coming out of a major injury was when Brady had to take over the QB slot in the middle of a Patriot's season. Their primary QB almost died on the field after a vicious tackle. No one expected much out of Brady, and wrong they were. He was the ingredient that got the Patriots to their first Superbowl ever. The other QB eventually recovered but never again regained his prior position, Brady was that much better than he was. Could this possibly happen with Hargrove (hopefully following a much less dramatic injury during play)? The issue is that anything and everything can happen during play, things change all the time. The past is only a partial or opaque mirror to the future.

[willie]

45 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I don't think Willie even said Yuri should start, at least not in the post I responded to. He said we were better with Yuri on the floor. Either way I think we are saying the same thing

I don't care if Yuri starts or not I just want him to play 28-30 minutes a game. We are a better team when he is on the floor. 

[HoosierPal]

8 minutes ago, willie said:

I don't care if Yuri starts or not I just want him to play 28-30 minutes a game. We are a better team when he is on the floor. 

I couldn’t agree more. Yuri’s last two starts (first 5 min) haven’t been stellar. Some players do better watching how the game is developing and then jump in. 

Yes it is the minutes that count. I want him in at crunch time. 

[slufanskip]

27 minutes ago, willie said:

I don't care if Yuri starts or not I just want him to play 28-30 minutes a game. We are a better team when he is on the floor. 

We are definitely in agreement. 

[RiseAndGrind]

yuri’s A/TO ratio has plummeted due to the Seton hall and Belmont games i would imagine. I think he’ll recover. 

[billiken_roy]

9 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

yuri’s A/TO ratio has plummeted due to the Seton hall and Belmont games i would imagine. I think he’ll recover. 

besides apparently a hand injury (i havent noticed but it has been discussed often here) the biggest difference is that Yuri has now played against some bigger, faster and better teams and all his current physical limitations are showing.    hopefully with continued work in the weight room and maturity over the next 3.5 years that will be minimized.   his smaller size was my reluctance to jump on yurimania from day one.   that said, i have seen enough to now confidently say he can/will play at this level.   now it is more a question of whether he will turn into ernie digregorio or not by 2023.   but at this point, after seeing the cards travis ford has to play, i agree yuri is a must play and a high minute guy on the 2018-19 roster.   

[almaman]

8 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

besides apparently a hand injury (i havent noticed but it has been discussed often here) the biggest difference is that Yuri has now played against some bigger, faster and better teams and all his current physical limitations are showing.    hopefully with continued work in the weight room and maturity over the next 3.5 years that will be minimized.   his smaller size was my reluctance to jump on yurimania from day one.   that said, i have seen enough to now confidently say he can/will play at this level.   now it is more a question of whether he will turn into ernie digregorio or not by 2023.   but at this point, after seeing the cards travis ford has to play, i agree yuri is a must play and a high minute guy on the 2018-19 roster.   

true as all that may be, I think his return to earth has much to do with over confidence, laziness etc. Good news is unless he turns out to be a head case he will rise above this and be dominant for four years.

[billiken_roy]

23 minutes ago, almaman said:

true as all that may be, I think his return to earth has much to do with over confidence, laziness etc. Good news is unless he turns out to be a head case he will rise above this and be dominant for four years.

i think dominant is a very strong word that i wouldnt put on many billikens during my fandom.   hope you are right.   i would be happy if he ends up being a solid point guard that controls the action.   say josh fisher with a little more flair.   

[slu72]

1 hour ago, RiseAndGrind said:

yuri’s A/TO ratio has plummeted due to the Seton hall and Belmont games i would imagine. I think he’ll recover. 

Oh, I agree. Also as he becomes more acclimated to the speed of the game and the quickness of the defenders. 

[slu72]

By the way Yurimania still lives. And I haven't seen anything that would indicate he's lazy or a head case. He made some gutsy D stops against BC, and has made a pest of himself on D in other games. Yes, he did have a few lazy passes, but who hasn't?  As for his other errant tosses, I think he feels he made those in HS, but as we all know, he's not in HS anymore, Toto.  I also believe as he gets stronger and develops some stop and pops and possible a decent 3 shot, and becomes more comfortable at going to his left  he could be an all conference PG by his Jr or Sr year.