Where will we end up ranked next year roughly

[kshoe]

There are so many unknowns about a team that has never played together before and few have actually seen play. Yet some on here want to make straw man arguments that fts will be what does us in! 

[Old guy]

Fully agree that until we see them play a few games we have nothing solid to base our arguments about our team.

[wgstl]

25 minutes ago, Old guy said:

until we see them play a few games we have nothing solid to base our arguments about our team.

i mean, ya anyone can say that about their team every year...  we have proven things to look forward too

[brianstl]

47 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

So if your point is that great talent can overcome poor free throw shooting, I think that's obvious.  But I thought we were talking about teams like ours who don't have magic bullets.  I don't see the first or second best player at any position on our roster.  Unlike the teams you mentioned:

Big 12 All Conference
First Team
Frank Mason, Kansas, POY
Josh Jackson, Kansas
Second Team
Devonte Graham, Kansas

Big 10 All conference
First Team
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
Second Team
Miles Bridges, Michigan State
Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin

Big East All Conference
First Team
Angel Delgado, Seton Hall
Second Team
Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall

Atlantic 10 All Conference
Second Team
Hassan Martin, Rhode Island
Defensive Player of the Year
Hassan Martin, Rhode Island

you and others can keep on complaining about free throw percentage and ignore what the real problem was last season.  We ranked 331st in fg% and 333rd in fg attempts.  

Those are far more important for this team to improve.  We move to just the mean in both of those categories we improve our ppg by more than eight.  

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, kshoe said:

Read your numbers closer: we took 3.7 fewer fts per game last year and made 3.3 fewer. Doesn't sound like the ft percentage was a major problem.

As for the one and ones. The MAXIMUM number of one and ones a team have have in a given game is 6. Since we are talking about a 5% made difference here that difference could lead to 0.3 extra fts per game. Now multiply that 0.3 by the expected percentage of 70% and you get .2 extra points per game. So 1 ppg turned into 1.2 at maximum when you you factor in the one and ones.

Double it.  Three one and one's per half is six FT per half, or 12 per game.  How many front ends did we miss?  Not all of them, but enough. Someone can figure that out if they want to do the research.  I'm saying there's 2 to 4 points out there we need, and can, capture. Does 2 to 4 points from the line turn the Alabama and Samford games into W's?

I'm putting my best FT shooters in the game when we're up by 2 to 5, with the ball, and time running out.  I expect them to be hitting above 70%. I want the ball in Bishop or AD or Johnson's hands when the opponents foul. We're talking 85 to 73% shooters. 

Every coach in America knows how important free throws are in a game.

[kshoe]

14 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Double it.  Three one and one's per half is six FT per half, or 12 per game.  How many front ends did we miss?  Not all of them, but enough. Someone can figure that out if they want to do the research.  I'm saying there's 2 to 4 points out there we need, and can, capture. Does 2 to 4 points from the line turn the Alabama and Samford games into W's?

I'm putting my best FT shooters in the game when we're up by 2 to 5, with the ball, and time running out.  I expect them to be hitting above 70%. I want the ball in Bishop or AD or Johnson's hands when the opponents foul. We're talking 85 to 73% shooters. 

Every coach in America knows how important free throws are in a game.

Don't double it. The first ft in a 1-1 is given so it's not part of this calculation. The second one only matters if you make it. In one scenario you make it 65% of the time and in the other you make it 70%of the time. Put differently, in only 1 in 20 1 and 1 attempts will the better shooting team get an extra ft attempt. Not a big difference. I stand by my calculations that a 5% difference in % equates to 1.2 points per game.

[Pistol]

10 hours ago, kshoe said:

There are so many unknowns about a team that has never played together before and few have actually seen play. Yet some on here want to make straw man arguments that fts will be what does us in! 

It's not necessarily a straw man. We have stats on all of our players' histories from the FT line, and overall it's an unfavorable picture. That's a stat that translates pretty well between levels. It's not unreasonable to say, "Free throws are going to be an issue with this team, and hopefully the talent can overcome it in close games."

[slusam]

Rothstein has SLU 4th in his A10 power ratings. I can't link to the article but it has a lot of good info in it. Can someone else link to it?

[moytoy12]

17 minutes ago, slusam said:

Rothstein has SLU 4th in his A10 power ratings. I can't link to the article but it has a lot of good info in it. Can someone else link to it?

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/cbb/rothstein-files-atlantic-10-offseason-notebook/amp/

[Cowboy]

-Rothstein seems to have it correct here....There’s no telling how this group is going to mesh or how certain roles are going to be defined, but this much is for certain: Ford has assembled a roster talented enough to finish in the top three or four of the Atlantic 10 next season.

[ACE]

22 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Point of information

Ft %  grades  for 2017 

A= 75.4

B= 72.3

C=69.9

D=67.6

F = 64.4

Bills finish at 66.3 = D-...

Wiz, How big was the improvement from the McCall/Jett freshman season team to the following year when Mitchell returned?

[Billiken Rich]

I haven't seen these kids play.  I have zero information other than there prior stats.  I do have a history of watching the Billikens since Bonner.  We've rarely seen transfers come in and be great immediately.  This year we have most of the team transferring in or new.  I would not be shocked if we have a downer of a year with wins in the middle to high teens this year and crush it next year.

 

Who was our best transfer ever?

H?

Reggie Bryant?

Jamal Johnson?

Maurice Jeffers?

I'm forgetting a ton but it seems like they always needed that first year to acclimate and were terrific after that......

 

I'm REALLY pumped for this season because I think we are going to see amazing pieces to a puzzle.  I just don't expect to see it all come together this year

 

 

 

     

[slufan13]

I expect to be playing close to a full letter grade higher in February/March than we are in November. I just think it's going to take this team a little bit of time. I think the non-conference will just be inconsistent. We could blow out some teams and then struggle at home to the SIUC's of the world. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

34 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

I haven't seen these kids play.  I have zero information other than there prior stats.  I do have a history of watching the Billikens since Bonner.  We've rarely seen transfers come in and be great immediately.  This year we have most of the team transferring in or new.  I would not be shocked if we have a downer of a year with wins in the middle to high teens this year and crush it next year.

 

Who was our best transfer ever?

H?

Reggie Bryant?

Jamal Johnson?

Maurice Jeffers?

I'm forgetting a ton but it seems like they always needed that first year to acclimate and were terrific after that......

 

I'm REALLY pumped for this season because I think we are going to see amazing pieces to a puzzle.  I just don't expect to see it all come together this year

 

 

 

     

Well, Jamal Johnson played only one year, his senior season, with the Bills after transferring from Miami (Fla.), where he'd played one year after going the juco route.  So he didn't have a first year to acclimate.

H Waldman was fabulous both of his years after transferring from UNLV, leading the Bills to two NCAA Tournament appearances.

Those two played well right away.  Wasn't Mo Jeffers a juco transfer?  If so, he'd be more comparable to Justin Love, Kenny Brown, David Robinson, etc., and I don't suppose that's what you're talking about here.

[TFord and TRavs]

I wouldn't discount Ash. If Ash was with the Jordair crew, I think we honestly could have had a deeper tourney run, conference and NCAA 

[Cowboy]

1 hour ago, Billiken Rich said:

I haven't seen these kids play.  I have zero information other than there prior stats.  I do have a history of watching the Billikens since Bonner.  We've rarely seen transfers come in and be great immediately.  This year we have most of the team transferring in or new.  I would not be shocked if we have a downer of a year with wins in the middle to high teens this year and crush it next year.

 

Who was our best transfer ever?

H?

Reggie Bryant?

Jamal Johnson?

Maurice Jeffers?

I'm forgetting a ton but it seems like they always needed that first year to acclimate and were terrific after that......

 

I'm REALLY pumped for this season because I think we are going to see amazing pieces to a puzzle.  I just don't expect to see it all come together this year

 

 

 

     

-it could be what the teams he was a part of accomplished is influencing me too much, I would say H has been our best transfer......to date

[HoosierPal]

12 hours ago, kshoe said:

Don't double it. The first ft in a 1-1 is given so it's not part of this calculation. The second one only matters if you make it. In one scenario you make it 65% of the time and in the other you make it 70%of the time. Put differently, in only 1 in 20 1 and 1 attempts will the better shooting team get an extra ft attempt. Not a big difference. I stand by my calculations that a 5% difference in % equates to 1.2 points per game.

I'm glad you stand by your calculations.  You haven't  convinced me but that is not critical at all.  I really don't know where you are going with it.  It sounds like you don't feel FT% is important.

Here is where I am:

As Herb Edwards said; "You play the game to win".  To do so, you need to score more points than your opponent.

You will score more points shooting 70% than 65%, be it 1, 2 or 5.

Free throws can determine the outcome of a basketball game.

Find me one coach (high school, college or pro) in America that downgrades the importance of free throws.

[HoosierPal]

4 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-it could be what the teams he was a part of accomplished is influencing me too much, I would say H has been our best transfer......to date

No question, H!  I remember more than one diagonal, cross court bounce passes to a breaking Claggett or Highmark. The kid had vision and guts.  I'm sure he drove Spoon crazy.

[Billiken Rich]

1 minute ago, HoosierPal said:

No question, H!  I remember more than one diagonal, cross court bounce passes to a breaking Claggett or Highmark. The kid had vision and guts.  I'm sure he drove Spoon crazy.

I remember H threading the needle and hitting a player in the face with the ball because there was no way the pass should've made it through......

[cheeseman]

Jeffers was a Juco who signed with us - he did not transfer.  H Waldman was very good.

[ACE]

2 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

I'm glad you stand by your calculations.  You haven't  convinced me but that is not critical at all.  I really don't know where you are going with it.  It sounds like you don't feel FT% is important.

Here is where I am:

As Herb Edwards said; "You play the game to win".  To do so, you need to score more points than your opponent.

You will score more points shooting 70% than 65%, be it 1, 2 or 5.

Free throws can determine the outcome of a basketball game.

Find me one coach (high school, college or pro) in America that downgrades the importance of free throws.

So many games come down to protecting a lead in the last couple of minutes. Even though we may not be a great free throw shooting team, I think we figure to be pretty well positioned when it matters most. Bishop, Roby, Johnson and Henriquez all figure to be able to handle the ball a bit and shoot free throws. Not sure about Graves since he doesn't have much a track record, but I figure he would be another good option. If we need one big in the game late, Welmer shot 62% free throws last year, but with his stroke, should be able to uptick it closer to 70%. Foreman and French obviously will need to improve in this area and hopefully Goodwin can improve his throws as he figures to get to the line a lot with his type of game. At least be like Jett with his throws - he was not great throughout the game, but when it mattered most in crunch time, it seemed like Jordair usually delivered with his free throws.

[3star_recruit]

Below are the top 10 returning scorers in the league.  I don't think anybody's catching the top 4 guys but there's some up and comers from last year like Rhode Island's Buckingham  who will break into that top 10.  Mike Lewis may be a borderline top 5 guy, Duquesne doesn't have much else.  Henriquez has never averaged more than 11 ppg in college but he's going to get a lot of attempts this year.  I'm penciling him as a borderline top 5 scorer:

Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure     20.6 ppg
Peyton Aldridge, Davidson         20.5 ppg
Shavar Newkirk, St. Joseph        20.2 ppg (injured in first conference game)
Matt Mobley, St. Bonaventure     18.5 ppg
BJ Johnson, La Salle             17.6 ppg
Lamarr Kimble, St. Joseph        15.5 ppg
EC Matthews, Rhode Island        14.9 ppg
Otis Livington, George Mason    14.3 ppg
Mike Lewis, Duquesne            14.1 ppg
Pookie Powell, La Salle            13.7 ppg

[prebilliken]

Rothstein has us finishing top 4 in the league. He's not even calling us a sleeper. 

Depending on the non-con we put together, that could  mean a tournament spot. Its ok to think BIG this season. 

Atlantic 10 Offseason Notebook

[TFord and TRavs]

3 minutes ago, prebilliken said:

Rothstein has us finishing top 4 in the league. He's not even calling us a sleeper. 

Depending on the non-con we put together, that could  mean a tournament spot. Its ok to think BIG this season. 

Atlantic 10 Offseason Notebook

I've been saying that for months but these guys want to keep comparing old slu history. We are writing it right now and people are blind to it. 

[prebilliken]

33 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said:

I've been saying that for months but these guys want to keep comparing old slu history. We are writing it right now and people are blind to it. 

History is silly here. There are definite concerns about a team coming together among high expectations, but we have never seen an influx of talent at SLU like this. Rarely do you see 7 players, all arguably the best 7 on the team, come in at the beginning of a new season.