RiseOfTheBillikens Posted January 4 Posted January 4 We are back. I think we can use the injury excuse. If to say we win out I think we could maybe get in. Quote
gobillsgo Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Beers flowing tonight? Love the optimism, but we will be lucky to win 2 of the next 3. Let’s shoot for the top 4 seed and see what happens in the A10 tourney. Quote
White Pelican Posted January 4 Posted January 4 19 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said: We are back. I think we can use the injury excuse. If to say we win out I think we could maybe get in. Careful, don't drown in that big vat of Koolaid. Quote
RiseOfTheBillikens Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, White Pelican said: Careful, don't drown in that big vat of Koolaid. But do we get in though? Quote
okay Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Personally don’t think so. There’s just so many teams that are doing good this season. We’re still A10. I’m not sure if being undefeated from now on would even get us ranked higher than #40 Quote
Lord Elrond Posted January 4 Posted January 4 We do not get in by going undefeated in conference. Must win the A10 tourney, period. What is in that Koolaid you are drinking anyway? Must be REALLY good stuff. Quote
slu72 Posted January 5 Posted January 5 Hate to rain on your parade but winning out is out there in la la land. Our only hope to go dancing is to win the tourney in DC. Quote
dlarry Posted January 5 Posted January 5 27 minutes ago, slu72 said: Hate to rain on your parade but winning out is out there in la la land. Our only hope to go dancing is to win the tourney in DC. Agree. It has no chance of happening but if it did…..call me crazy but I think they’d be in. Quote
slu72 Posted January 5 Posted January 5 Just now, dlarry said: Agree. It has no chance of happening but if it did…..call me crazy but I think they’d be in. It would be newsworthy for sure and maybe get our net into the low 40’s but let’s be real. We have no safety net to cover us for injuries or a starter missing a game by getting the flu. Our very short bench is what scares me the most. Thames is our only proven sub, and he’s game to game. It appears Casey is shelved for this season so it’s Pikar and Brockoff to back up Robbie and Anya. While they’re not chopped liver they’re still unproven McCottry’s inconsistent and Warlick’s in D1 training class, actually both are. Again, depth is a major concern at this point. In short, there is no cavalry over the hill. Quote
Crewsorlose Posted January 5 Posted January 5 Based on projected schedule strength, the team going into the season could probably afford to 7-8 losses. That's still the case. They will rack up Q2 wins if they can win on the road. But going 15-3 in A-10 play would be extraordinary and it's probably easier just to win 3 in a row in March at the A-10 tourney. For me the real question is whether Schertz can build an 8-man rotation. Bench guys need to know when they might get in. Thames needs to get healthy and play 20-25 mpg. Between Pikkar/Casey/Brockhoff, one guy needs to play 10-15 minutes to back up Avila and Anya. And they need to get McCottry his confidence back or give Warlick a spin. billiken_roy and MusicCityBilliken 2 Quote
RiseOfTheBillikens Posted January 6 Author Posted January 6 On 1/5/2025 at 10:05 AM, dlarry said: Agree. It has no chance of happening but if it did…..call me crazy but I think they’d be in. I think we get in too. Quote
dlarry Posted January 6 Posted January 6 35 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said: I think we get in too. RiseOfTheBillikens and SLU_Lax 2 Quote
billikenfan05 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Reckless optimism like this hasn't been seen on this board since maybe 2021... I'm here for it. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 6 Posted January 6 OK ...I'll play along... So we go 18-0 and then go to the A-10 tourney and lose the first game...No Dance....You say , that can't happen so we win the 1st game and then lose the 2nd...again no tourney... you say we won't lose the 2nd one. OK, we win the 3rd for sure...That gives us the A10 tourney and we Dance. CenHudDude 1 Quote
Crewsorlose Posted January 6 Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, The Wiz said: OK ...I'll play along... So we go 18-0 and then go to the A-10 tourney and lose the first game...No Dance....You say , that can't happen so we win the 1st game and then lose the 2nd...again no tourney... you say we won't lose the 2nd one. OK, we win the 3rd for sure...That gives us the A10 tourney and we Dance. This post shows the limits of the Wiz (with all due respect). 17-1 dances with a loss in the Quarters. I don't even think we'd be on the bubble. willie, gabriel and NextYearBill 3 Quote
The Wiz Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said: This post shows the limits of the Wiz (with all due respect). 17-1 dances with a loss in the Quarters. I don't even think we'd be on the bubble. Again , I will play along. So we win all 18 games in conference. Hard to say what the NET would be but some seem to think around 40...but let's juice that up a bit to give us a little margin to say ...28. You said in your earlier post 7 or 8 losses might do the trick too...Let's not take any chances ...let's go with the 7 losses...We have 6 losses now and the 7th loss can be in the A10 tourney to continue the model that was setup in this thread. Of course , if we lose in the tourney somebody else gets the auto bid but that shouldn't be a problem either. So where are we? We go 18-0 in the conference season and lose 1 in the tourney...we finish the season 28-6 ...we have a NET rank of 28 ...we are in....No we are not in ...we go to the NIT. The previous paragraph is not fictional nor is it about the Billikens. And the bolded statement is not me talking. That is what happened to Ind St last year when they went 28-6 ...and had a NET 28...the bolded statement was made by Coach Schertz after receiving the snub from the Committee. Btw...If you check my numbers in the above scenario if we go 18-0 plus 1 loss in the A10 tourney , we finished at 27-7...not as good as the 28-6 that ISU posted. If you don't believe me ...believe Coach Schertz ...he speaks from experience. I stand by my original post above. Quote
dlarry Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said: This post shows the limits of the Wiz (with all due respect). 17-1 dances with a loss in the Quarters. I don't even think we'd be on the bubble. Agree. Again it won’t happen but I’m confident it would get us in. The Robbie Avila story line would give them a the boost they need. The committee is looking for 2 things. 1. Reasons to put a power 5 team in. 2. A good National story. The Bills will never have number 1 but they have number 2 this year. Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, dlarry said: Agree. Again it won’t happen but I’m confident it would get us in. The Robbie Avila story line would give them a the boost they need. The committee is looking for 2 things. 1. Reasons to put a power 5 team in. 2. A good National story. The Bills will never have number 1 but they have number 2 this year. The Robbie Avila story wasn’t enough to get Ind. State in last year. Are you saying that because he transferred to SLU that makes him a big enough story to get us in? Quote
slu72 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 1/5/2025 at 11:37 AM, Crewsorlose said: Based on projected schedule strength, the team going into the season could probably afford to 7-8 losses. That's still the case. They will rack up Q2 wins if they can win on the road. But going 15-3 in A-10 play would be extraordinary and it's probably easier just to win 3 in a row in March at the A-10 tourney. For me the real question is whether Schertz can build an 8-man rotation. Bench guys need to know when they might get in. Thames needs to get healthy and play 20-25 mpg. Between Pikkar/Casey/Brockhoff, one guy needs to play 10-15 minutes to back up Avila and Anya. And they need to get McCottry his confidence back or give Warlick a spin. I think Casey is a write off for this year. Hope I’m wrong but at this point how much can we expect from a guy who’s played a minute? Quote
dlarry Posted January 7 Posted January 7 56 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: The Robbie Avila story wasn’t enough to get Ind. State in last year. Are you saying that because he transferred to SLU that makes him a big enough story to get us in? No I think he is a bigger name than he was last year. He wasn’t getting national attention until the MVC tournament last year. He was getting the spotlight preseason this year. If the Bills were to go on an 18 game conference winning streak the hype around Avila would build even more. No way they leave him out. Quote
Minerva N. Owl Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, dlarry said: Agree. Again it won’t happen but I’m confident it would get us in. The Robbie Avila story line would give them a the boost they need. The committee is looking for 2 things. 1. Reasons to put a power 5 team in. 2. A good National story. The Bills will never have number 1 but they have number 2 this year. I'm on the side of those who think that speculating about the possibility of winning out from here and then losing the championship game of the A10 tourney requires special blue Koolaid made in La la land, but tomorrow is another snow day in St. Louis, so let's continue the speculative dream for a while. Here are a couple other variables that haven't been considered: 1) It's not just a matter of winning out ... There's the question of margin of victory in those wins. The Billikens moved up more than 50 spots in the NET over the last week with two victories in conference . A large margin of victory in each was a key factor. If we are dreaming in the La la land with blue koolaid, let's dream about winning each game by 20+ points. Winning big, especially in Quad 2 games, will move the Billikens up the NET even more. 2) Part of the "national story" is the possibility of putting the committee in the situation where they would be faced with a decision similar to what they faced last year, but with the same coach and the same Robbie Avila. I side with those who think that, given what Indiana State showed in their NIT run last year, the committee would vote to put Schertz and Avila in this time. 3) Last year, there were an unusual number of bid stealers. For these reasons, I think that if the Billikens win out (with large enough margins of victory to reach selection Sunday with a NET ranking of 28) going undefeated until Sunday, March 16 in the A10 Championship game, the committee will pick them, unlike Indiana State, which was snubbed on March 17, 2024 with a NET ranking of 28. *** Further, I agree with those who think that the more serious issue for the Billikens is how to get more support from the bench ... and how to keep Avila, Swope, and Jimmerson healthy. The team is gelling, but without Avila, this team is not too good. There has to be a better plan to steady the boat while Avila takes a breather during each half. Quote
Brighton Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Why some of you do this every season I’ll never understand. slu72 1 Quote
dlarry Posted January 7 Posted January 7 7 hours ago, Brighton said: Why some of you do this every season I’ll never understand. Because message boards are for silly speculative discussions? BuiltFordBills and CenHudDude 2 Quote
billiken_roy Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 1/6/2025 at 10:52 PM, Brighton said: Why some of you do this every season I’ll never understand. because unlike you, we are true fans. being a true fan is more than cheering only for a winner. it is sticking with them through thick and thin and suffering together. it all seems kinda destructive, but it is what it is. i am sorry you arent capable of being a true fan. anyone can root for the yankmes, or the dukes or kansas or the chiefs. but it is a challenge to be a billiken fan. it's hard. but when in those few instances where we are on top of the world (even for just two games) it's spectacular. you'll never experience that total feeling. BuiltFordBills, cgeldmacher, Billikenbooster and 2 others 5 Quote
slu72 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 7 hours ago, Brighton said: Why some of you do this every season I’ll never understand. This win out talk is crazy talk. Quote
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