The Bills over Jk St by 15

[The Wiz]

Great game against UM-L...a double anomaly...where both teams have their greatest shooting night of the season in  the same game. For a post game review, check out the end of the UM-L spread thread. 

We are almost back to where we were right before the Santa Clara game but we arrive with a little more experience, a little more gelling and a few more numbers to back it up. Hopefully we can start moving up from here.

Game preview...Next up Jk St.  They are in the illustrious Southwestern conference....not only an F- minus conference but the worst conference in D1..for a number of years. This is a conference that  if you can scrape together a grade of D you can get the auto bid and Dance. Jackson St. grades out as an F team.  In the SWAC world, this translate into a middle of the pack team ...the teams below JS all being F-. 

So we win, right?  Yes.  Does it matter ...barely.  If we win by 15 or 30 , there won't be much of a difference....we were supposed to win...if we blow them out ...we are running up the score  and you will not receive any additional accolades. If you lose , then it is a permanent black mark on your record.  Even a close win could create a little damage.  We need to win this  game by at least 15 and call it a good practice.

The Bills remain at C+ but the numbers are improving. It is possible that even a 15+ pt win might be enough to move us up to B-.  You will see in the report card below the improvement in offense ...now up to an average of C+...while the defense has slipped backward to a C- .

Let's take a look  at the Card...

Report Card.... 

 

.................SLU..................JkST.....................SLU......................JKSt

...........................OFF.....................................................DEF..........

PPG...........B....................F-..11th WITN.............D.........................F-..3rd WITN

FG%..........B-....................F-..4th WITN............C+......................F-..3rd WITN

3P%...........B-...................F................................C+.......................F-..4th WITN

FT%.........  C..................D..........................................

Reb...........C+.................D+..................................D-......................F

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Report Card change....5 up...4 dn...+1

UP.....OFF....PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%............DEF...Reb

Dn....OFF...Reb.....DEF...PPG...FG%...3P%

 

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

PPG...Jimerson ....48th...up

.........Swope.........39th....up

3PM......Jimerson...14th...up

..............Swope......49th....up

Reb,,,,,Anya...........4th...dn

FG%....Thames.....67th...dn

Asst...Swope...57th...up

Stls....Anya...93rd...new

Dou-Dou....Anya....43rd...new

JKSt...

none

Injuries....

SLU....

Warlick....Ques....undisclosed injury

UM-L...No injuries to report

Keys to the game....That we don't  become overconfident.

WWN2D2W....Make sure we have a Shake Shack night....which means we should hold them to around 65 or less....Win  all the categories ...Reb, TOs  Slash and of course at least a 15 pt win

Bottom line... At the end of the game , we need to have Jk St thinking like Dorothy...Gee Toto,  I don't think we are in SWAC anymore....Swope and Jimerson and Anya and Avila , Oh My....Follow the Chaifetz Road ...said The Wiz....

[White Pelican]

"The Bills remain at C+ but the numbers are improving. It is possible that even a 15+ pt win might be enough to move us up to B-."

Wiz, did you mean to say "might NOT be enough" there? No biggie either way, just curious if that's what you meant. To me, it's way too early (especially with injuries and changing lineups) to make any judgments about how good or bad we are. Other teams are going through the same thing and that's why they play the games.

[The Wiz]

55 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

"The Bills remain at C+ but the numbers are improving. It is possible that even a 15+ pt win might be enough to move us up to B-."

Wiz, did you mean to say "might NOT be enough" there? No biggie either way, just curious if that's what you meant. To me, it's way too early (especially with injuries and changing lineups) to make any judgments about how good or bad we are. Other teams are going through the same thing and that's why they play the games.

"Might be enough" is correct. We might get a very small bump with a 15 pt  win which might be enough to move us up to B-.  Keep in mind, grades and rankings are not just based on what the Bills do. It is also based on what other teams do that are ahead of us or teams that we  have already played.  It is possible we win and our numbers don't improve after the game (because we did what was expected) yet we still move up because of other team outcomes. All teams stats change every day but usually not enough to change a spread....sometimes but not often.

[Bay Area Billiken]

ESPN has SLU -22.5, Total 154.5.

Tonight's game will hopefully be one to make some (NET) hay. 

[wgstl]

Not sure how I'd feel about a 15 point win over JSU... 

[HoosierPal]

Jackson State's closest loss was a 9 pointer against High Point.  The only way we win by 15 or less is if Jaden Schertz and Isaac Holmes are getting double digit minutes.

[White Pelican]

Down 5 at the half. Sucking. How would you feel about a 15 point win now?

[Lord Elrond]

You said hold them to 65 or less, and we held them to 66, so close.

Now, how does the computer explain the Billikens free throw shooting this game, or did it blow a CPU after seeing 8-22 FT shooting, and 15 turnovers?

[Old guy]

JS disrupted our game in the first half, they were too fast and weaved around SLU's players, causing a lot of TOs, stealing balls, and intercepting SLU's passes. The second half went better for us and we won by 8. A really ugly win marked by a terrible performance in FT shooting. We are still not playing well together as a team.

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

You said hold them to 65 or less, and we held them to 66, so close.

Now, how does the computer explain the Billikens free throw shooting this game, or did it blow a CPU after seeing 8-22 FT shooting, and 15 turnovers?

We had this all the way (sigh of relief).

This was not a case of JSU playing great ...all though their 3 pt shooting was outstanding  at 42%...3 extra 3s and 1 extra FT...10 extra pts but as you pointed out correctly, the computer was right on with a 65 pt guess.  

So the real issue, was about us....That we don't  become overconfident...I don't know if it was this or that we weren't ready to play in the 1st half or both but something was seriously off....FTs and TOs....Our slash was not bad 53/40 /36 until you get to FTs... Had we shot just average (73%) we would have scored 8 more pts...8+8 (the actual spread)= 16 pts within 1 of the projected spread  plus another Shake Shack game. TOs  was another stat that went wrong. The first half  we had 13 TOs.  16 in a game  is an F... 20 in a game is almost a sure loss. I kept telling people at the game if we stop making TOs we should win the game easily.  Fortunately we didn't make the 16 or 20 mark as we only had 2 in the 2nd half.   In the  end we gave them 14 extra FGA and 11 extra pts off TOs. I guess I can take a little solace from the fact that I was closest to the actual pt spread...ESPN had us winning by 22.5.  This solace is probably similar to the solace that JSU is taking in that this is their best loss....They have no wins and the closest they had come before tonight was a 9 pt loss.

Besides the win, the good news is the 2 TO second half and better FT shooting...from 25 % to 50%...while still poor at least headed in the right direction.

Moving forward, a bad win is always better than a good loss.  The problems in tonight's game are fixable. as in going from 13 TOs to 2 TOs in the same game. In the FT game, we are a generally a C team...but not a normal one.  We have A s and Fs from game to game...the consistency is missing. I think in both cases (TOs and FTs) we have to be ready to play by focusing on the game at hand.  When we focus we stop making TOs and start making FTs.

Again these are some of the growing pains of having a new team that hasn't gelled yet....but we are slowly getting there ....as in we closed out the game tonight in a smooth pattern ...something we haven't always done.

Another chance to gell on Thur as we head out West to SF.  I hand the gauntlet over to @Bay Area Billiken.... We will not be favored on the 5th but the game is winnable.  We will need BAB to help get us over the winning finish line with some strong cheering.  It will be up to The Bills to provide the focus.

 

[thatskablamo]

6 hours ago, Old guy said:

JS disrupted our game in the first half, they were too fast and weaved around SLU's players, causing a lot of TOs, stealing balls, and intercepting SLU's passes. The second half went better for us and we won by 8. A really ugly win marked by a terrible performance in FT shooting. We are still not playing well together as a team.

You have to wonder how much scouting/game film prep work goes into our opponents. “They disrupted our game?” We had eight previous Jackson State games to figure out Mo Williams’ defensive signature. What are we doing? Not dogging you, OG, but just curious as to why in God’s name don’t we evolve as team or counter their defensive moves with an offensive one of our own? I may just sit and watch our coaching staff the next game I go to and see what they do all game. 

[Cowboy II]

9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

We had this all the way (sigh of relief).

This was not a case of JSU playing great ...all though their 3 pt shooting was outstanding  at 42%...3 extra 3s and 1 extra FT...10 extra pts but as you pointed out correctly, the computer was right on with a 65 pt guess.  

 

 

-the computer makes guesses? this has to be a typo from a late night

[Billiken Rich]

The one constant between Ford and Schertz is horrible three point defense.  Every team, every time, seems to have it's best game of the season against us from deep

[willie]

51 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

The one constant between Ford and Schertz is horrible three point defense.  Every team, every time, seems to have it's best game of the season against us from deep

I think there is a possible reason for this. It's we don't have a rim protector. We have to help in the paint. Maybe someone can look up what our 3 point defense was when we had French guarding the middle. If this theory doesn't hold up it won't be the first time I   have been wrong. 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-the computer makes guesses? this has to be a typo from a late night

The computer says it does guess...like in... I guess I am right...machines are not humble.

[mrjoelabs]

1 hour ago, Billiken Rich said:

The one constant between Ford and Schertz is horrible three point defense.  Every team, every time, seems to have it's best game of the season against us from deep

100 percent.  What was the point of dumping Ford to have the exact same problem.  

[ACE]

Just now, mrjoelabs said:

100 percent.  What was the point of dumping Ford to have the exact same problem.  

Do not feed the troll...

[Billiken Rich]

1 minute ago, ACE said:

Do not feed the troll...

Me or him.......lol

 

[ACE]

16 minutes ago, willie said:

I think there is a possible reason for this. It's we don't have a rim protector. We have to help in the paint. Maybe someone can look up what our 3 point defense was when we had French guarding the middle. If this theory doesn't hold up it won't be the first time I   have been wrong. 

That's a good point. I think every roster should have a good shot blocker - it's so under-rated. At least have someone who can disrupt shots. Robbie is not going to be that guy, Anya provides a bit of it. And yes, French was very valuable defensively, he was a hell of a shotblocker for his size. 

[ACE]

3 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Me or him.......lol

 

him

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, willie said:

I think there is a possible reason for this. It's we don't have a rim protector. We have to help in the paint. Maybe someone can look up what our 3 point defense was when we had French guarding the middle. If this theory doesn't hold up it won't be the first time I   have been wrong. 

I think the results are inconclusive concerning 3P defense during the French era.

His last 2 years 2019-20 and season 20-21 have mixed results with some caveats ...season 19-20 had 31 games plus it was the 1st year of the longer distance 3P shot ...numbers were down that year and the next....season 20-21 had only 21 games (Covid)

3pt Def

2019-20....32.4%...B-

2020-21....33.6%...C+

2024-25.....32.9 (includes yesterday)...C-...3P defense in D1  has gotten better over the years. A 32.9 back in French's days would have been a B- or C+ ...now just a C-.

Overall, we were slightly above average  on 3P defense in the French years and are currently slightly below average though not real meaningful this year as it is still a small sample size.

So this year, so far we are in between the 2 French years but this is our worst grade...again not yet meaningful.

I will let you draw your own conclusions.

[SLUMS81]

Interesting that when we are cold from 3 point range we call it a bad shooting night.  Our opponent’s defense is not mentioned.

When our shots go in it is an indication of the quality of our players, again nothing to do with the opposing defense.

When our opponent has a poor shooting night we will call it good Billiken defense.  When the bad guys’ shots go in, it must be because of our bad defense.

Aggressively contesting a 3 point shot is good.  Fouling the 3 point shooter is not good.  

I agree we need a larger body of work before we can really get a handle on this team’s capabilities.

 

[cheeseman]

7 minutes ago, SLUMS81 said:

Interesting that when we are cold from 3 point range we call it a bad shooting night.  Our opponent’s defense is not mentioned.

When our shots go in it is an indication of the quality of our players, again nothing to do with the opposing defense.

When our opponent has a poor shooting night we will call it good Billiken defense.  When the bad guys’ shots go in, it must be because of our bad defense.

Aggressively contesting a 3 point shot is good.  Fouling the 3 point shooter is not good.  

I agree we need a larger body of work before we can really get a handle on this team’s capabilities.

 

Fair points - however, we have seen a lot of open 3s being taken by our opponents this year.  If you leave any D1 player who has any kind of an outside shot open, they are more likely to hit it then not.  Last night was no different.  I do think Schertz changed up the defense several times last night and I saw Anya giving Robbie help on that big guy they had when he got the ball in the paint.  That adjustment did seem to slow him down.  He also went to a zone which also seemed to slow them down in the second half.  He didn't stay in it but I have no problem with switching defenses multiple times if not just to keep the opponent off balance.  We still seem to have some trouble working through picks.

[SLUMS81]

I agree with you on the picks and on the need for better inside help defense. I wish we would use the zone D more often.

[willie]

We threw in a zone for a couple of possessions and it worked. Did that in another game successfully. Maybe try it a little more.