The Wiz's Preconference Forecast 2023-24

[The Wiz]

General outlook

The outlook  for the A-10 is parity as it is with  D-1 schools overall.  Parity means a move to the middle ...good schools aren't as good and bad schools aren't as bad....with differences between good and bad narrowing.   You can see that in the A-10....only 1 good team and 1 bad team (no not us).  Parity in the A-10 today means 10 of the 15 teams are around grade B  ...ie little difference between them.   There will be a number of "upsets" in conference play this year.  While teams and fans will be surprised, part of what will be happening will be parity at work.     The reasons for parity increasing  is the NIL and easier transferring.  This is a trend that not only will continue but will become more pronounced as NIL monies increase and transferring becomes even easier.  The word "rebuild"  has new meaning.  Ten years ago,  rebuild was a process of 3-4 years of adding players and developing them into a winning team.  Now that can be done in a year using NIL and transfer.  One only has to look at the current NET to see the difference...Fla Atl...6th in NET....Indiana St...23rd  and ahead of NC and KY...James Madison ...30th and ahead of Nova and Mich St and even Liberty  at 48th is ahead of 12-0 Ole Miss.  If The Bills step up their NIL game they could take a big step up ...fast.

A-10 outlook

In this year's A-10 forecast ,  I have changed from a regular report card  ...to a super report card.  Besides showing my own program , I have also included 3 other important and popular  ranking services for comparisons....The NET, Vegas and KenPom.   I will assume that all readers here know what the NET and KenPom are.  The Vegas ranking is a compilation of all the sports books in Vegas using their Base.  The Base is what the true ranking of a team is before any betting is done...the Base that Vegas uses as a starting point...once betting starts the numbers skew.   

As you all know , I like to use grades on everything....not only because it is more college like but it helps deal with parity.    Grades put teams that are similar in the the same category.   For instance when you see a team that is #225 vs #168 you say big difference.  Yet to me, it is a C- vs a C...a minor difference ...Or a #35 team vs a #17 team...you might think not much difference there  but it is an A- vs an A+... a bigger difference between those teams than the 225 vs 168 ones.

So then, to make this all work for comparisons sake, I have converted all the different rankings...KenPom, Vegas and The NET to a grade system to evaluate the upcoming A-10 conference. 

The Super Report Card.....Enjoy....We will discuss afterwards...

...................The Wiz...........The NET...........KenPom.....Vegas

1. Day..............A......................A......................A-................B+

2. St. J............B+....................B+....................B+................B

3. GM..............B+....................B+.....................B................B-

4. Duq.............B+.....................B+....................B................B+

5. VCU.............B.......................B......................B.................B

6. St. B.............B......................B+....................B+...............B

7. Rich..............B.......................B......................B.................B-

8. UMass.........B.......................B......................B.................B-

9. GW...............B-.....................B-.....................C+..............C+

10. Dav.............B-.....................B-.....................B-...............B-

11. Loy..............B-......................C+....................C+.............B

12. LaS............C+......................C+.....................C..............C

13. SLU............C........................C-......................C-............C+

14. Fham.........C-.......................D+......................C-...........C+

15. RI................D+......................D+.......................D+.........C

 

It is interesting to note that of the 3 rankings , I am the closest to the NET...The Wiz... 10 matches (including 9 0f the top 10)....KenPom ...9 matches ...Vegas 3 matches...Of course, Vegas just uses their rankings as a starting point before betting.   While the A-10 is a small sample size , it seems to hold on the larger D1 model....The Wiz 251 matches....KP....222....Vegas 72.  The NET itself is setup as though every day is selection Sunday...no forecasting ...let's just pick teams today.

It is not an accident that my model is close to the NET...that's the way I planned it.  I would argue that I had the NET before the NCAA.  In those days when the NCAA used  the RPI ...strange things use to happen to get teams Dancing.  So I modified the RPI into an adjusted RPI to forecast not only games but the NCAA picks.  The NCAA  then came up with a new system...The NET...which looked a lot like my adjusted RPI...I made some further adjustments and have a model that can forecast games and Dance bids.....It will never be exact ....there is a purposeful 15-20%  fudge factor in the NET....that factor  is the human /subjective factor.....You know in case you need to get a favorite team in (Power 5).  

As for the super report card,  there is good news and bad news.....The bad news is we are showing as a PIG team right now.   The good news is that with Parker coming back and Ezewiro playing a larger part of the 2nd half of the season that even a small boost would be huge in parity A-10.  In addition, since we are the underdog in most games going forward... wins and beating the spreads will help us make up ground.   Do you remember all those years when we were winning games and people said it was hard to  move up in the rankings because the A10 teams weren't that good .....Not true this year...win and we make up ground.

Keys to the conference...The computer doesn't see us winning the A10 but it does see us with a chance to make it to 4th which gives us a chance to Dance. Assuming the normal... we win some we weren't supposed to and lose some we should have won and those games even out ....I asked the computer how do we get to 4th place?  First, we need to get to a grade of B which the computer thinks is doable.  It thinks  that 4th place will be taken by a B team.  It sees 4 key games for The Bills.... Win GM away (Jan 6)....win Duq away (Feb 20) and then at least split with St. J starting with a win on Jan 10 at home....So the  next 3 games are important....The Loy game to get ourselves together and then the GM and St. J which are key matchups.

Bottom line....If we can stay healthy and avoid shooting 8% from the arc with no 10 TO differential games,  we can do some damage in the A10 and give ourselves a chance to Dance.......

Protect the ball

And make some 3s

Get a rebound 

And we'll  win with ease.

[slu72]

Make some 3s. One would think with one D1s top snipers that would be a given. Problem is Ford’s scheme’s don’t generate many open looks for him. 

[wgstl]

Yaaaaaa

 

[Cowboy II]

-seeing us at 3rd from the bottom is stomach turning

-not sure if it would be miracle to get to the 4 seed and that would be nice but at least let's avoid the PIG

[3star_recruit]

Piggybacking on the grading theme of Wiz's analysis, this is where we've been and where we hope to go.   My grades are slightly different but in general agreement with Wiz.

Mid-Nov:
B- (With Parker in the lineup)

Early Dec:
C- (Without Parker in the lineup)

Mid Dec:
C (With Ezewiro in the lineup but Meadows, Thames and Hughes hampered by health issues)

Early Jan:
C+ (With a healthy Meadows and Hughes)

Mid Jan:
B- (With a 75% Parker in the lineup and a healthy Thames)

Early Feb:
B (With a 85% Parker in the lineup)

Late Feb:
B+ (With a 95% Parker in the lineup and the freshmen playing like sophomores)

The hope is we can defend home court in January and stay above .500 in conference until Parker returns to form.  If he can, we've got a chance to win 4-5 road games as well.  That's the only realistic route to a top 4 finish, IMO. 

A team playing B+ ball by conference tournament time is dangerous enough to make a run.  Let us pray for the injury bug to buzz off.

 

[CenHudDude]

Great analysis as always Wiz.  When I looked quickly and saw that we were picked 3rd from the bottom and in the PIG, I didn’t like what your computer was seeing.  Maybe I’m drinking the blue KoolAide, but I am optimistic that we can do quite a bit better than that.  After looking at your complete analysis, and your explanation of parity, and seeing that you see at least a chance of us finishing as high as 4th, I began to think that I am not as crazy as I thought I was.  At any rate, let the games begin.  GO BILLIKENS!

[slu72]

3rd from the bottom means a 5-13 record in a weak conference? Boy, if that comes to pass this board will implode. 

[thetorch]

3 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Piggybacking on the grading theme of Wiz's analysis, this is where we've been and where we hope to go.   My grades are slightly different but in general agreement with Wiz.

Mid-Nov:
B- (With Parker in the lineup)

Early Dec:
C- (Without Parker in the lineup)

Mid Dec:
C (With Ezewiro in the lineup but Meadows, Thames and Hughes hampered by health issues)

Early Jan:
C+ (With a healthy Meadows and Hughes)

Mid Jan:
B- (With a 75% Parker in the lineup and a healthy Thames)

Early Feb:
B (With a 85% Parker in the lineup)

Late Feb:
B+ (With a 95% Parker in the lineup and the freshmen playing like sophomores)

The hope is we can defend home court in January and stay above .500 in conference until Parker returns to form.  If he can, we've got a chance to win 4-5 road games as well.  That's the only realistic route to a top 4 finish, IMO. 

A team playing B+ ball by conference tournament time is dangerous enough to make a run.  Let us pray for the injury bug to buzz off.

 

What happens when everyone elses freshman play like sophomores?

Just a silly cliche that means nothing.

[billikenbill]

Well done, The Wiz!! :hattip

[3star_recruit]

25 minutes ago, thetorch said:

What happens when everyone elses freshman play like sophomores?

Just a silly cliche that means nothing.

It's a best case scenario.  Most freshmen play like freshmen.

[SLU_Nick]

I like the exercise of trying to find a path to how our 200+ kenpom Billies make the tourney. 

I think if Yarbrough stays out of foul trouble, learns how to defend and can knock down the 3, him Bartley, Gillian, and Miles Reynolds will have us dancing.  

Same vibes. 
 

I actually do enjoy visualizing the path though.  Fans need hope. 

[Lord Elrond]

The games have yet to be played, the outcomes of the games are not set in stone. I see no reason not to cheer on the Billikens and hope for the best in every game.

[TheA_Bomb]

3 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

The games have yet to be played, the outcomes of the games are not set in stone. I see no reason not to cheer on the Billikens and hope for the best in every game.

Yeah the games are played on the court not on paper. Just because Wiz's Apple Macintosh spits out this number it doesn't mean anything.

[Soderball]

10 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

I like the exercise of trying to find a path to how our 200+ kenpom Billies make the tourney. 

I think if Yarbrough stays out of foul trouble, learns how to defend and can knock down the 3, him Bartley, Gillian, and Miles Reynolds will have us dancing.  

Same vibes. 
 

I actually do enjoy visualizing the path though.  Fans need hope. 

That team didn't have anyone with the skills of Sincere Parker; and Ezewiro is lightyears ahead of where Gillman and Jolly ever were(or could be)

That said, having to compare this roster in any way with Crews is why Ford needs to go in the first place, that and his inability to teach the game in any meaningful way.

 

This team cannot defend at all and depends on shooting 40-50-60% from three to do any damage.

 

Prediction: if Billikens average 70% from three this year we will win the national title.

[AnkielBreakers]

12 minutes ago, Soderball said:

That team didn't have anyone with the skills of Sincere Parker; and Ezewiro is lightyears ahead of where Gillman and Jolly ever were(or could be)

That said, having to compare this roster in any way with Crews is why Ford needs to go in the first place, that and his inability to teach the game in any meaningful way.

 

This team cannot defend at all and depends on shooting 40-50-60% from three to do any damage.

 

Prediction: if Billikens average 70% from three this year we will win the national title.

Arguably, this team has Ford’s best pair of pure scoring guards (Parker, Jimerson), and now maybe the best scoring big man (Ezewiro). It looked like they were getting better on D until the second half of NC State. If they get defense on track… .ugh… .sky is the limit.

[Pistol]

13 minutes ago, Soderball said:

That team didn't have anyone with the skills of Sincere Parker; and Ezewiro is lightyears ahead of where Gillman and Jolly ever were(or could be)

That said, having to compare this roster in any way with Crews is why Ford needs to go in the first place, that and his inability to teach the game in any meaningful way.

This team cannot defend at all and depends on shooting 40-50-60% from three to do any damage.

Prediction: if Billikens average 70% from three this year we will win the national title.

I'm actually fine with our current percentage - .377 is good for 42nd in the nation.

The attempts are the issue. We shoot 19.8 per game and we all know by now that coming into this season, Ford said we might shoot 30 per game.

We're a poor shooting team inside the arc (.487, currently 278th in the country) and we're a bottom-10% offensive rebounding team so we don't create second chances. We should be focused on moving the ball around more and getting open looks for Jimerson, Parker, Hargrove, Meadows, and Curcic (and to a lesser extent, Hughes and Medley). That's a lot of genuine perimeter threats.

And if we're going inside, we should be looking to draw fouls and not settling for mid-range jumpers. This team has been effective getting to the line and making them at a pretty good rate.

[Soderball]

1 minute ago, Pistol said:

I'm actually fine with our current percentage - .377 is good for 42nd in the nation.

The attempts are the issue. We shoot 19.8 per game and we all know by now that coming into this season, Ford said we might shoot 30 per game.

We're a poor shooting team inside the arc (.487, currently 278th in the country) and we're a bottom-10% offensive rebounding team so we don't create second chances. We should be focused on moving the ball around more and getting open looks for Jimerson, Parker, Hargrove, Meadows, and Curcic (and to a lesser extent, Hughes and Medley). That's a lot of genuine perimeter threats.

And if we're going inside, we should be looking to draw fouls and not settling for mid-range jumpers. This team has been effective getting to the line and making them at a pretty good rate.

377 isn't good enough to win for this team. They need to shoot over 50% because everything else is so bad.

 

I know 377 isn't far from the average of NBA superstar Steph Curry; but that doesn't matter. The Billikens are so bad on the defensive end and at physical play that they must shoot historic, record-breaking percentage numbers to have a shot at victory. 3-pt % is the only real redeeming quality on this team.

[Pistol]

Just now, Soderball said:

377 isn't good enough to win for this team. They need to shoot over 50% because everything else is so bad.

It's a percentage that we could realistically maintain with a higher number of attempts, and that may have been enough to make a difference in a couple of our closer losses.

Obviously there are many other major issues that need to be addressed, as well, especially on the defensive end.

[TheA_Bomb]

11 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I'm actually fine with our current percentage - .377 is good for 42nd in the nation.

The attempts are the issue. We shoot 19.8 per game and we all know by now that coming into this season, Ford said we might shoot 30 per game.

We're a poor shooting team inside the arc (.487, currently 278th in the country) and we're a bottom-10% offensive rebounding team so we don't create second chances. We should be focused on moving the ball around more and getting open looks for Jimerson, Parker, Hargrove, Meadows, and Curcic (and to a lesser extent, Hughes and Medley). That's a lot of genuine perimeter threats.

And if we're going inside, we should be looking to draw fouls and not settling for mid-range jumpers. This team has been effective getting to the line and making them at a pretty good rate.

You're advocating for a analytics approach to our offense.  I agree, plus 3PT attempts create longer less predictable rebounds so that could benefit us.

Either finish at the rim or take a 3. That's what SLU should do. 4 out 1 in offense.

[Soderball]

12 minutes ago, Pistol said:

It's a percentage that we could realistically maintain with a higher number of attempts, and that may have been enough to make a difference in a couple of our closer losses.

Obviously there are many other major issues that need to be addressed, as well, especially on the defensive end.

To beat Wyoming we hit 40%, and that was against a pretty small Wyoming team and with Parker. Guess what? Parker's primary contribution is.. you guessed it, high 3-pt % ..

We beat LA Tech because TJH was ... having a high 3-pt % .. we went 8.3% against NC ST and got killed; this team lives and dies by 3-pt %, not by Ezewiro or anyone else. If we shoot over 50% we can win, if we do not we will probably lose.

 

I think it's far less likely for Ezewiro to be POY in the A10(which if he continues current offensive efficiency he will be, hands down, no contest) ..

 

The sooner you accept that reality the better. 377 is not good enough for the Billikens.

 

edit:

I'm not saying this because I like it; I am saying it because it is the truth. I find this year's team to be excruciating to watch and yearn for the days of defensive, physical play again. Fire Travis Ford.

 

For those in the back: FIRE TRAVIS FORD.

[Pistol]

4 minutes ago, Soderball said:

The sooner you accept that reality the better. 377 is not good enough for the Billikens.

I think you have me mistaken for someone who is fine with how things are going this season. I'm merely pointing out one easy way this team can improve - one of many, many ways they need to get better. Might as well take the low-hanging fruit.

[TheA_Bomb]

Shooting 50% from 3 is not a strategy. 38% could work if you make more attempts.

I don't think the D will get better. D is harder to teach because everyone has to be involved. 

[AnkielBreakers]

45 minutes ago, Soderball said:

That team didn't have anyone with the skills of Sincere Parker; and Ezewiro is lightyears ahead of where Gillman and Jolly ever were(or could be)

That said, having to compare this roster in any way with Crews is why Ford needs to go in the first place, that and his inability to teach the game in any meaningful way.

 

This team cannot defend at all and depends on shooting 40-50-60% from three to do any damage.

 

Prediction: if Billikens average 70% from three this year we will win the national title.

I have a good juxtaposition. Let’s say that Willie Reed and Kawmain Mitchel were allowed to play halfway through the situation I year. How would conference have played out? They would not have finished first, but definitely a massive improvement. Parker and Ezewiro are definitely the best players on the team. I think they are stars. A couple of stars can really make a difference.

[willie]

3 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I have a good juxtaposition. Let’s say that Willie Reed and Kawmain Mitchel were allowed to play halfway through the situation I year. How would conference have played out? They would not have finished first, but definitely a massive improvement. Parker and Ezewiro are definitely the best players on the team. I think they are stars. A couple of stars can really make a difference.

You certainly have elevated Ezewiro after 2 games. Maybe we should see a few more. 

[Soderball]

6 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Shooting 50% from 3 is not a strategy. 38% could work if you make more attempts.

I don't think the D will get better. D is harder to teach because everyone has to be involved. 

SOIN W 50%
ILST W 29%
WYO W 40%
VER L 56%
WICH L 28%
DART W 27%
USU L 42%
SIU L 22%
DRA L 36%
HOF W 45%
LAT W 56%
NCST L 8%

 

That's our numbers. The only real outlier is games against HORRIBLE opponents in ILST and DART .. and the VER game in which they went 56% from the field and 46% from trey.

 

What these numbers say to me is that the Billikens need to play 20+ seconds on every possession and shoot threes. This team can't run because this team can't make layups or get steals. We need to slow the game down, stand around, and have Jimerson or Parker huck a three and hope to hit more than half the time. Then we can win.