Dayton over The Bills by 7

[The Wiz]

I would take my chances letting Dayton shoot 3s...For the  year Day is 33.5%...226th ITN...............in 2P%, Day is 54.6%, (30th ITN) many close in......33.5% x1.5= 50.25%.....54.6% is greater than 50.25%...They come out ahead on a risk reward basis by taking 2s.... In addition,  we are B rated in terms of 3P defense...As I said above, the best strategy is to have them shoot deep 2s.

[HoosierPal]

14 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I would take my chances letting Dayton shoot 3s...For the  year Day is 33.5%...226th ITN...............in 2P%, Day is 54.6%, (30th ITN) many close in......33.5% x1.5= 50.25%.....54.6% is greater than 50.25%...They come out ahead on a risk reward basis by taking 2s.... In addition,  we are B rated in terms of 3P defense...As I said above, the best strategy is to have them shoot deep 2s.

Here are the Conference Stats for you.  Second page.  https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022/pdf

Last 12 games are what is important now.  You can see they have weapons from the arc. I will all but guarantee you (cause I haven't talked to anyone) that the coaching staff has this highlighted.

[The Wiz]

44 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Here are the Conference Stats for you.  Second page.  https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022/pdf

Last 12 games are what is important now.  You can see they have weapons from the arc. I will all but guarantee you (cause I haven't talked to anyone) that the coaching staff has this highlighted.

I have seen the conference stats...I chose to go with the whole season rather than conference only stats....larger sample sizes are better when used for  forecasting.  If I start looking at recent shooting trends , I might be tempted to look at the last 3 games where Day shot 21-69 for 30.4% and that wouldn't be good.   You don't want to be like those investment advisors who just pick out the best time periods to show great returns.    No, I think it is best to stick with the larger sample size,  especially given Day inconsistent 3P shooting over the season.  In addition to using the more inclusive data,  with The Bills above average 3P defense,  we should be able  to keep Day  around six 3PM.   As I said in opening post, we need to  keep Holmes and Camara under control and we will have a chance to win.....

Btw, thanks for the Day stats.

[jonny karate]

Hit 3 all over 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Line per cbssports.com:  Dayton -5.5, o136.5.

[BANGheGOTit]

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I would take my chances letting Dayton shoot 3s...For the  year Day is 33.5%...226th ITN...............in 2P%, Day is 54.6%, (30th ITN) many close in......33.5% x1.5= 50.25%.....54.6% is greater than 50.25%...They come out ahead on a risk reward basis by taking 2s.... In addition,  we are B rated in terms of 3P defense...As I said above, the best strategy is to have them shoot deep 2s.

So you want to make them shoot deep 2’s, but you would take your chances letting them shoot 3’s because using the entire season the numbers aren’t as good as the last 12 games would indicate?  Wouldn’t you base you’re numbers on the conference schedule because you’re playing the same opponents?  12 games is more than half the season, and isn’t that enough of a trend to indicate their 3 point shooting is better than it used to be?  Haven’t we seen enough bad 3 point defense from SLU to be very concerned about this?  Make them shoot long 2’s?  Sounds simple, but nothing is ever easy this year, or against Dayton.  Let’s hope you’re right.

[Cowboy II]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I have seen the conference stats...I chose to go with the whole season rather than conference only stats....larger sample sizes are better when used for  forecasting.  If I start looking at recent shooting trends , I might be tempted to look at the last 3 games where Day shot 21-69 for 30.4% and that wouldn't be good.   You don't want to be like those investment advisors who just pick out the best time periods to show great returns.    No, I think it is best to stick with the larger sample size,  especially given Day inconsistent 3P shooting over the season.  In addition to using the more inclusive data,  with The Bills above average 3P defense,  we should be able  to keep Day  around six 3PM.   As I said in opening post, we need to  keep Holmes and Camara under control and we will have a chance to win.....

Btw, thanks for the Day stats.

-didn't SVU have injuries earlier in the season so the rotation, and stats, from then don't reflect the current lineup?

[Cowboy II]

15 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Be careful of what you wish.  In their twelve A10 conference games, the Flyers are second in the conference (to SLU) in 3%, 38.5% to our 38.9%.  So call it a push between the two teams.  In conference games, Brea is hitting 45% of his three's (25 of 55) , Elvis 48% (11 of 23), Blakney (who may not play) 41% (9 of 22), and Amzul 33% (14 of 42).  Smith, who also may not play, is at 50%, but only 5 of 10. 

Even Holmes is 43%, albeit 3 of 7.  Camera is 36% at 12 of 33.  Keep them off the arc, and keep Holmes and Camera away from the rim.  Sound difficult?

Bottom line, they can shoot jumpers.

-well, I guess that's why they are favored

[wgstl]

15 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Be careful of what you wish.  In their twelve A10 conference games, the Flyers are second in the conference (to SLU) in 3%, 38.5% to our 38.9%.  So call it a push between the two teams.  In conference games, Brea is hitting 45% of his three's (25 of 55) , Elvis 48% (11 of 23), Blakney (who may not play) 41% (9 of 22), and Amzul 33% (14 of 42).  Smith, who also may not play, is at 50%, but only 5 of 10. 

Even Holmes is 43%, albeit 3 of 7.  Camera is 36% at 12 of 33.  Keep them off the arc, and keep Holmes and Camera away from the rim.  Sound difficult?

Bottom line, they can shoot jumpers.

This recap makes them sound amazing.  But then you look at a ton of their games and it quickly makes you forget all that again. 

[BANGheGOTit]

43 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-didn't SVU have injuries earlier in the season so the rotation, and stats, from then don't reflect the current lineup?

Are the next few opponents of Vanderbilt, thinking about the first 20 games this season or are they looking up and seeing a Vandy team that just beat the #2 team ITC?  I’m guessing they are a little more worried.  A season can be measured in periods of time.  The NCAA selection committee puts more emphasis on how you finish. Teams may start slow, get players back, or start to gel.  Teams can also start fast and finish poorly.  I would think the last couple months worth of stats should be more relevant.

[shempie]

Hey Wiz,

Thanks for all of the work you put it in on this and I appreciate your efforts, insight, and analysis. I respect that you have a process and remain true to it and aren't just making stuff up to fit a narrative.

 

 

[Taj79]

Dayton Eye Test:

Sitting here in Dayton waiting for the game. Dayton Daily News won’t reveal anything on the status of Smith and Blakney.  Grant says “both are being evaluated.”  So who knows.

Without them, they are seven scholarship players deep.  Shavramhamts has seemed to peak.  He’s not a real accomplished point guard at 6’8”.  He fouled out in nine minutes at VCU.  Holmes and Camara are it but Holmes has no real game outside the restricted area.  Camara is good and can shoot the three.  We don’t have a comparable defender to guard an athletic 4.  
 

Brea is the designated shooter and Elvis isn’t bad but Brea had to assume the PG duties with Smith out and Mongol Mike limited and did well.  Amzil likes to shoot as well but I’d depend on them missing more than not but they do shoot better at home.

Gonna be a tough game no matter.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Cowboy II said:

-didn't SVU have injuries earlier in the season so the rotation, and stats, from then don't reflect the current lineup?

It seems some fans like to use trends....As I stated earlier , I like larger data samples.  I use trends in conjunction with the larger data sets but trend lines are always a subset.  So with that in mind, let's look at some Day trends...

Last 6 games Day is 3-3...the losses have all been away...but even the wins were shaky...one against VCU  ...needed a missed FT shot by VCU with 4 sec left to gain the win... and also an overtime win against bottom feeder Loy-Chi. 

Looking at stats over the last 3 games...Day has an unimpressive slash of 44/30/68....compared with the conf  49/39/70...compared with the overall..47/ 34/70

So what does all this mean?...Day started out average... improved as conference started and recently has slipped back....But what do the trends mean?...not much....It shows that Day is an inconsistent team...Or as Forrest Gump said...Life is like a box of chocolates ...you never know what your going to get.   That sums up the Day season so far.

The reason that the computer is picking Day is because of the home field venue....Day has one of the best home field advantages in the A-10.... Play this game at the Fetz and we are favored....which is why you need to mark Mar 3 down on your calendar.

If the Bills play their game , they can win this contest.
 

[Lord Elrond]

22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

It seems some fans like to use trends....As I stated earlier , I like larger data samples.  I use trends in conjunction with the larger data sets but trend lines are always a subset.  So with that in mind, let's look at some Day trends...

Last 6 games Day is 3-3...the losses have all been away...but even the wins were shaky...one against VCU  ...needed a missed FT shot by VCU with 4 sec left to gain the win... and also an overtime win against bottom feeder Loy-Chi. 

Looking at stats over the last 3 games...Day has an unimpressive slash of 44/30/68....compared with the conf  49/39/70...compared with the overall..47/ 34/70

So what does all this mean?...Day started out average... improved as conference started and recently has slipped back....But what do the trends mean?...not much....It shows that Day is an inconsistent team...Or as Forrest Gump said...Life is like a box of chocolates ...you never know what your going to get.   That sums up the Day season so far.

The reason that the computer is picking Day is because of the home field venue....Day has one of the best home field advantages in the A-10.... Play this game at the Fetz and we are favored....which is why you need to mark Mar 3 down on your calendar.

If the Bills play their game , they can win this contest.
 

With the sacred Arch-Baron Trophy at stake, does that affect the stats?  

[Billiken Rich]

16 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

With the sacred Arch-Baron Trophy at stake, does that affect the stats?  

Sauce for the goose Mr Elrond

[BANGheGOTit]

56 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

It seems some fans like to use trends....As I stated earlier , I like larger data samples.  I use trends in conjunction with the larger data sets but trend lines are always a subset.  So with that in mind, let's look at some Day trends...

Last 6 games Day is 3-3...the losses have all been away...but even the wins were shaky...one against VCU  ...needed a missed FT shot by VCU with 4 sec left to gain the win... and also an overtime win against bottom feeder Loy-Chi. 

Looking at stats over the last 3 games...Day has an unimpressive slash of 44/30/68....compared with the conf  49/39/70...compared with the overall..47/ 34/70

So what does all this mean?...Day started out average... improved as conference started and recently has slipped back....But what do the trends mean?...not much....It shows that Day is an inconsistent team...Or as Forrest Gump said...Life is like a box of chocolates ...you never know what your going to get.   That sums up the Day season so far.

The reason that the computer is picking Day is because of the home field venue....Day has one of the best home field advantages in the A-10.... Play this game at the Fetz and we are favored....which is why you need to mark Mar 3 down on your calendar.

If the Bills play their game , they can win this contest.
 

If I may…using your logic as I interpret it, last year before A10 Conference games, teams would have thought Franco was just a guy.  Conference season rolls around and he was dominating.  Come A10 tournament time, using your formula Franco would have been avg (since he started slow and ended with a fury the “data” would have averaged out to avg). So teams should have prepared for him as just a avg dude and not the beast he had become in conference games??

[brianstl]

This is the least amount of enthusiasm ever on the board for a Dayton gameday since we joined the A10.  A win tonight and we move into a first place tie.  It is really amazing what disappointing results in season that was supposed to be the season does to a fan base.  People only will allow themselves to get burned so many times.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

Dayton Eye Test:

Sitting here in Dayton waiting for the game. Dayton Daily News won’t reveal anything on the status of Smith and Blakney.  Grant says “both are being evaluated.”  So who knows.

Without them, they are seven scholarship players deep.  Shavramhamts has seemed to peak.  He’s not a real accomplished point guard at 6’8”.  He fouled out in nine minutes at VCU.  Holmes and Camara are it but Holmes has no real game outside the restricted area.  Camara is good and can shoot the three.  We don’t have a comparable defender to guard an athletic 4.  
 

Brea is the designated shooter and Elvis isn’t bad but Brea had to assume the PG duties with Smith out and Mongol Mike limited and did well.  Amzil likes to shoot as well but I’d depend on them missing more than not but they do shoot better at home.

Gonna be a tough game no matter.

where are your seats so i can watch for you tonite?

my daughter and son in law are going to dayton to watch tonite.  dont know where they are sitting though.   probably top row.  

[BANGheGOTit]

22 minutes ago, brianstl said:

This is the least amount of enthusiasm ever on the board for a Dayton gameday since we joined the A10.  A win tonight and we move into a first place tie.  It is really amazing what disappointing results in season that was supposed to be the season does to a fan base.  People only will allow themselves to get burned so many times.

Or maybe you just get sick of every winter holiday having to face your family who are Louisville and KY fans and they do their best to try and be polite and ask about SLU and all you can do is discuss the glory years.  Then finally after at least a couple chances, SLU gets preseason hype.  BAM!  Our go the text messages showing SLU may finally be the best of the 3!  Finally the little Bills are surely going to make a sweet 16 run!  Then this.  I’m sorry, but I will never apologize for being a fan who wants more.  F(ck the NIT.  

[willie]

27 minutes ago, BANGheGOTit said:

Or maybe you just get sick of every winter holiday having to face your family who are Louisville and KY fans and they do their best to try and be polite and ask about SLU and all you can do is discuss the glory years.  Then finally after at least a couple chances, SLU gets preseason hype.  BAM!  Our go the text messages showing SLU may finally be the best of the 3!  Finally the little Bills are surely going to make a sweet 16 run!  Then this.  I’m sorry, but I will never apologize for being a fan who wants more.  F(ck the NIT.  

Neither Ky or Louisville have much to brag about this year. This is probably the worst year in Louisville history. They could only hope to be in the NIT. 

[BigMouthBilliken]

We lose by 12

[BANGheGOTit]

12 minutes ago, willie said:

Neither Ky or Louisville have much to brag about this year. This is probably the worst year in Louisville history. They could only hope to be in the NIT. 

That doesn’t make the disappointing season SLU has had any better.  This was supposed to be THE YEAR.  The year to make some noise, and be the launch to a new level of success.  Make the tournament, make some national noise, use that success to get the players you need to carry on that tournament and national attention.  Now the attention SLU gets is when a national writer mentions SLU in the “disappointment” category, or when they say we need to win the A10 tournament.  The subpar seasons of others doesn’t make me feel any better.

[Major Majerus]

On 2/9/2023 at 11:34 AM, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

Bourbon. Woodford Reserve, rocks. Nuttin' betta.

$34 at Trader Joe’s

[willie]

21 minutes ago, BANGheGOTit said:

That doesn’t make the disappointing season SLU has had any better.  This was supposed to be THE YEAR.  The year to make some noise, and be the launch to a new level of success.  Make the tournament, make some national noise, use that success to get the players you need to carry on that tournament and national attention.  Now the attention SLU gets is when a national writer mentions SLU in the “disappointment” category, or when they say we need to win the A10 tournament.  The subpar seasons of others doesn’t make me feel any better.

You obviously are not a proponent of the saying misery loves company. 

[willie]

Just now, Major Majerus said:

$34 at Trader Joe’s

I am a fan of Woodford. Doesn't break the bank.