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O.T. Conference Shuffle ( OU and Texas inquire about joining SEC)


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8 hours ago, Pistol said:

Kansas and Iowa State both make a ton of sense in the Big Ten to me.

I don’t know how attractive KU or Iowa St. actually are to the Big 10.

I think the Big Ten would love to add southern schools, but there are really no good options available for them on that front when it comes to institutional match.  Unless, they could pry away someone like Duke, UVA, UNC or even one of the Florida schools from the ACC.  Miami and FSU aren’t AAU members, but they are ranked higher than current Big Ten members and Nebraska is no longer is an AAU member.

The Big Ten already has a school in Iowa and Iowa St. is a Matt Campbell taking a big time job away from becoming irrelevant in football again.  KU’s football program is a traditional mess and both of their revenue programs are currently either under FBI investigation or involved in a scandal involving the cover ups of physical assaults and sexual harassment.

I actually think UConn makes more sense than KU.  
 

If the Big Ten was smart, they would be working ACC members hard right now and be working Fox to make it financially attractive for those ACC members to jump ship.  The current Big Ten is a conference that will fall behind the other top conferences due to changing demographics.

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I could see this round of realignment basically resulting a bigger non-Pac 12 P4. 

  • SEC + Texas & Oklahoma = 16 teams
  • Big Ten + KU & Iowa St. = 16 teams
  • ACC + WVU = 15 football, 16 basketball (w/ND)
  • American + remaining Big XII = 16 football (w/Navy), 16 basketball (w/Wichita St.)

Between having 11 members and a new norm of bigger conferences, I could see this indirectly encouraging the Big East to expand. 

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1 hour ago, Compton said:

I could see this round of realignment basically resulting a bigger non-Pac 12 P4. 

  • SEC + Texas & Oklahoma = 16 teams
  • Big Ten + KU & Iowa St. = 16 teams
  • ACC + WVU = 15 football, 16 basketball (w/ND)
  • American + remaining Big XII = 16 football (w/Navy), 16 basketball (w/Wichita St.)

Between having 11 members and a new norm of bigger conferences, I could see this indirectly encouraging the Big East to expand. 

25% of the country’s population lives in the west.  Just like the south an even larger percentage of the under 18 population lives in the west. You are not going to have a P4 without the PAC in some configuration.  
 

People are really overestimating the importance of many midwestern and northeastern universities going forward.  There are too many schools for an ever decreasing share of the country’s youth population.  The schools that figure out a successful way too recruit students and athletes from the south and the west will end up being in good shape.  Those that don’t are going to suffer.

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13 hours ago, brianstl said:

25% of the country’s population lives in the west.  Just like the south an even larger percentage of the under 18 population lives in the west. You are not going to have a P4 without the PAC in some configuration.  
 

People are really overestimating the importance of many midwestern and northeastern universities going forward.  There are too many schools for an ever decreasing share of the country’s youth population.  The schools that figure out a successful way too recruit students and athletes from the south and the west will end up being in good shape.  Those that don’t are going to suffer.

I didn't mean that the PAC 12 would somehow drop down and out of the so called P5, just that there would be four bigger major conferences east of Colorado. To some extent the PAC 12 can sidestep the scramble/shuffle of the Big Ten, Big XII and SEC. If they expand they've got Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State, BYU, San Diego St., etc.... to choose from. They'll certainly still be in the so-called P5 or P6 (for basketball). But like the Big East they may feel pressure for further expansion. 

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15 hours ago, brianstl said:

25% of the country’s population lives in the west.  Just like the south an even larger percentage of the under 18 population lives in the west. You are not going to have a P4 without the PAC in some configuration.  
 

People are really overestimating the importance of many midwestern and northeastern universities going forward.  There are too many schools for an ever decreasing share of the country’s youth population.  The schools that figure out a successful way too recruit students and athletes from the south and the west will end up being in good shape.  Those that don’t are going to suffer.

I agree the PAC will have a seat at the table. Just too important not too.

I guess I disagree that the long-term trend of people heading to the West will continue indefinitely. To put it simply, there are currently too many people and not enough water out West. At some point the droughts, constant fires, electricity shortages, etc. will materially affect the quality of life out there and will offset the warmer weather that has attracted all those people. The Midwest isn't dead yet.  

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-so there is a ton of smoke about another round of conference realignment, SLU either dropped the ball, didn't realize there was a ball or was told not to play ball the last time, who at SLU should be leading the charge to make sure the BEast is aware we would join? Dr P? Dr Chaifetz? seems too heavy a lift for our ADept 

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Who knows what will happen...

My best case scenario for the Bills would be , the Big East expands,  tries to compete, adds Dayton, SLU, and VCU. To get to 14, but Wichita State worries me in that outcome. 

A-10 stays together, I say they should be in Wichita State's ear, telling them you are lone basketball only team in the AAC ( if that survives)  A-10 asks them and Loyola to join.

AAC/ Big 12 could go either way, one takes over parts of the other..  

Of course seeing West Virginia and ACC rumors.. 

 

Any thoughts or predictions??

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55 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

Who knows what will happen...

My best case scenario for the Bills would be , the Big East expands,  tries to compete, adds Dayton, SLU, and VCU. To get to 14, but Wichita State worries me in that outcome. 

A-10 stays together, I say they should be in Wichita State's ear, telling them you are lone basketball only team in the AAC ( if that survives)  A-10 asks them and Loyola to join.

AAC/ Big 12 could go either way, one takes over parts of the other..  

Of course seeing West Virginia and ACC rumors.. 

 

Any thoughts or predictions??

I still don't see the Big East happening.  That being said, in your scenario where they add Wichita State + 2 of the 3 A10 schools you mention, I think Dayton could be the odd man out based on Xavier not wanting them in.

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Craziest speculation I heard would be the 9 AAU members in the PAC 12 vote to dissolve the PAC 12. They along with Rice (AAU member), because of Rice’s Houston location, team up with the Big 10 to form a new 24 member coast to coast Big 10.  Fox bankrolls the whole thing as their answer to ESPN’s SEC expansion move.

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

Craziest speculation I heard would be the 9 AAU members in the PAC 12 vote to dissolve the PAC 12. They along with Rice (AAU member), because of Rice’s Houston location, team up with the Big 10 to form a new 24 member coast to coast Big 10.  Fox bankrolls the whole thing as their answer to ESPN’s SEC expansion move.

The Rice paradox is that while it is located in the fourth largest city in the country, it is the smallest non-service academy affiliated D-1 football program in terms of enrollment. I just don’t see Rice bringing anything to the table except for it’s baseball program. Some people give a hoot about that. 

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A lot of this is like getting into a fraternity, much of it is political and anyone can black ball you. I have no idea what will actually happen. Also, if you read the media you are aware of the resurgence of the virus, I do think this season may be plagued by Virus issues like the last year. Something like "Second verse, same as the first.

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1 hour ago, thatskablamo said:

The Rice paradox is that while it is located in the fourth largest city in the country, it is the smallest non-service academy affiliated D-1 football program in terms of enrollment. I just don’t see Rice bringing anything to the table except for it’s baseball program. Some people give a hoot about that. 

The argument that was being made for Rice was two fold.  First was that this conference would need a presence in Texas and Rice was the only available institutional fit.  Second, is the belief that Rice has the financial resources needed to be competitive in that conference despite it’s  size. Rice would have the third largest endowment among those 24 schools and it would be by far the largest on a per student basis.  Rice’s donors have deep pockets.

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44 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The argument that was being made for Rice was two fold.  First was that this conference would need a presence in Texas and Rice was the only available institutional fit.  Second, is the belief that Rice has the financial resources needed to be competitive in that conference despite it’s  size. Rice would have the third largest endowment among those 24 schools and it would be by far the largest on a per student basis.  Rice’s donors have deep pockets.

Essentially Rice will be the Vanderbilt/Northwestern of its new conference. 

 

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This should be merged with the other thread. 

Also, can't help but wonder if in a Big East expansion scenario Richmond has a leg up over VCU, being private and having a lot more resources on a per-student bases. 

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6 minutes ago, Compton said:

This should be merged with the other thread. 

Also, can't help but wonder if in a Big East expansion scenario Richmond has a leg up over VCU, being private and having a lot more resources on a per-student bases. 

-is that how Butler got in, more resources per student? or was it massive success in hoops?

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After thinking about it, I do not see why the SEC should stop expanding. Now that they have these teams, they should just grab Clemson, Miami, and FSU. Once that is done, Michigan and OSU, then USC. There are a few others to fall in line. End up with between 30-40 teams, with UND being the last team. Then they would be a minor league football group. Fully separated from the rest of the NCAA teams. They could basically set any rules they want. They could roll the football teams as separate entities from the universities, where the teams pay a fee for use of the logos. The players could major in Football, etc. etc. etc.

This would make the SEC teams the most money, probably. Right now, schools might be scared enough to fall in line.

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51 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-is that how Butler got in, more resources per student? or was it massive success in hoops?

Likely a mix of considerations: hoops success, media market, geography, financial strength, private school, presence in a recruiting hotbed, etc, etc. 

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1 hour ago, AnkielBreakers said:

After thinking about it, I do not see why the SEC should stop expanding. Now that they have these teams, they should just grab Clemson, Miami, and FSU. Once that is done, Michigan and OSU, then USC. There are a few others to fall in line. End up with between 30-40 teams, with UND being the last team. Then they would be a minor league football group. Fully separated from the rest of the NCAA teams. They could basically set any rules they want. They could roll the football teams as separate entities from the universities, where the teams pay a fee for use of the logos. The players could major in Football, etc. etc. etc.

This would make the SEC teams the most money, probably. Right now, schools might be scared enough to fall in line.

This could happen in some form, but the "SEC" media partners would not abandon the West Coast Market.  [Nothing says SouthEast like Normal, OK.....get a new moniker.]  Just throwing stuff up here (both literally and figuratively), but get an ACC/SEC merger of some sort and then a Big 10/Pac Whatever merger of some sort. 

Why worry about academics, why not just make this an NFL minor league that uses uniforms supplied by a University?

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Right now no one knows what's really going on.  Its amazing how lazy some of the reports have been.  Some "reporters" have popped off and have been completely wrong.  

 

My guess is the religious schools in the Big 12 are really in trouble.  K-State is also not in a good spot.

 

How this is a SLU problem is the future of the NCAA basketball tournament.  Its not going survive.  I read some where someone said it's a cash cow.  That is only true for the NCAA offices.  The schools get a fraction of the profits.  If you're a blue blood that sells the tournament you might want a bigger piece of the pie or all of it.  I think it would be foolish to not include the Big East, Atlantic 10 or the Gonzaga conference but if you are not in the SEC, ACC or Big 10 you are in danger.  

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14 minutes ago, TJHawk said:

Right now no one knows what's really going on.  Its amazing how lazy some of the reports have been.  Some "reporters" have popped off and have been completely wrong.  

 

My guess is the religious schools in the Big 12 are really in trouble.  K-State is also not in a good spot.

 

How this is a SLU problem is the future of the NCAA basketball tournament.  Its not going survive.  I read some where someone said it's a cash cow.  That is only true for the NCAA offices.  The schools get a fraction of the profits.  If you're a blue blood that sells the tournament you might want a bigger piece of the pie or all of it.  I think it would be foolish to not include the Big East, Atlantic 10 or the Gonzaga conference but if you are not in the SEC, ACC or Big 10 you are in danger.  

This may be true, but I feel pretty ambivalent about it. I will follow the SLU team no matter where it goes. It might be fun to watch SLU win a national championship in a bifurcated league. I don’t really care. SLU vs. Alabama or Texas doesn’t really matter to me. Same with the rest of Football-it-dum.

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13 minutes ago, TJHawk said:

How this is a SLU problem is the future of the NCAA basketball tournament.  Its not going survive.  I read some where someone said it's a cash cow.  That is only true for the NCAA offices.  The schools get a fraction of the profits.  If you're a blue blood that sells the tournament you might want a bigger piece of the pie or all of it.  I think it would be foolish to not include the Big East, Atlantic 10 or the Gonzaga conference but if you are not in the SEC, ACC or Big 10 you are in danger.  

This is not really correct. There seems to be a myth that the NCAA itself is this giant organization that operates over the schools. In reality, the NCAA is merely the spokesman for a business which is owned by a variety of athletic conferences, which themselves are owned by the schools.  The NCAA Board of Governors decides how the money is distributed. You can see their roster here (http://web1.ncaa.org/committees/committees_roster.jsp?CommitteeName=EXEC) but only one member works for the NCAA itself. 12 of the 23 members are from D1 schools, 3 are from D2 schools and 3 are from D3 schools. 4 of the other 5 are independent members like Robert Gates or Grant Hill.  

Generally, about 60% of NCAA revenue goes directly back to Division 1 schools. Another 30% goes to run D1 championships, do drug testing, athlete insurance, or to D1/D2 schools. The remaining 10% goes to the NCAA, split between legal/insurance and just NCAA operating expenses. 

When the tournament was cancelled in 2020, schools revenue from March Madness went from $600M to $225M. If it was not a cash cow for NCAA member schools, then COVID-19 cancelling the tournament would not have ravaged athletic budgets the way that it did. 

Whenever people are talking about the big, bad NCAA it's important to remember that the people pulling the strings are the presidents of the schools who make up NCAA membership.

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2 minutes ago, TJHawk said:

The big schools would  break from the NCAA and create it's own basketball tournament was my point.  

I'm sure they could, and I'm sure it's something they think about. Kansas probably doesn't like splitting some of its money from the NCAA tournament with Loyola Chicago or SLU or VCU. But those schools also know that the current tournament is lucrative, continues to get more lucrative, and that trying to fix something that is already a cash cow is a dangerous proposition. Especially when so much of the marketing of the NCAA tourney is driven by the upsets and cinderella stories. 

Not to mention, many of the NCAA's legal arguments about why they should not have to pay players are that the NCAA is too large and complex an organization, with too many different members, to manage. If Kansas/Alabama/Kentucky/Texas/Etc. were to split off from the smaller institutions and form their own tourney for $ purposes, the legal scrutiny they would face regarding paying their players would be too immense to fight back any more. I don't seem them digging their own grave in this regard.

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4 minutes ago, NH said:

I'm sure they could, and I'm sure it's something they think about. Kansas probably doesn't like splitting some of its money from the NCAA tournament with Loyola Chicago or SLU or VCU. But those schools also know that the current tournament is lucrative, continues to get more lucrative, and that trying to fix something that is already a cash cow is a dangerous proposition. Especially when so much of the marketing of the NCAA tourney is driven by the upsets and cinderella stories. 

Not to mention, many of the NCAA's legal arguments about why they should not have to pay players are that the NCAA is too large and complex an organization, with too many different members, to manage. If Kansas/Alabama/Kentucky/Texas/Etc. were to split off from the smaller institutions and form their own tourney for $ purposes, the legal scrutiny they would face regarding paying their players would be too immense to fight back any more. I don't seem them digging their own grave in this regard.

The popularity of the tournament would shrink greatly if the size were reduced by the big schools leaving. The tournament is a ratings success because everybody has a team. Whether it's your school your city or your town or your favorite mascot everyone has a team. To many of us the first weekend is what makes the tournament special. TV would not pay a billion dollars to watch Kentucky play Duke for the 3rd time. Cinderella is what makes it special. 

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4 minutes ago, willie said:

The popularity of the tournament would shrink greatly if the size were reduced by the big schools leaving. The tournament is a ratings success because everybody has a team. Whether it's your school your city or your town or your favorite mascot everyone has a team. To many of us the first weekend is what makes the tournament special. TV would not pay a billion dollars to watch Kentucky play Duke for the 3rd time. Cinderella is what makes it special. 

i agree, however i believe the power schools are two arrogant and greedy to agree.   they truly believe most of america would rather watch kentucky play duke for the 3rd time.  

i think that we are headed for a split of D1 and in basketball it will be D1 and D1a with everyone outside the 4 power conferences.   hope i am wrong.   i still believe the best thing that could happen is expand the tourney to let everyone in.  so you know i am not a fan of the what appears to be on the horizon.

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