The Wiz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Another tough loss...If you are a glutton for punishment, you can check out the post game LaS spread thread to see the how and why we lost.. Otherwise, we move onto the "rust chart" ...something I would rather not do but it is a way to measure our progress after the pause...btw, if you are interested in post covid effects ...again check out the post game LaS spread thread. Here is the rust chart .............Pt spread.......Forward Projection to return to prepause play after St. B game (i.e. to get back to 12/23/20 shape) Win......by 7 or less..............on target.....3 games to go Win..... by 7+.......................ahead of schedule...2 games to go Loss.....by 4 or less............stalled out ...4 games to go Loss......by 5+......................slipping...rest of the regular season It isn't all bad news ....we are still favored to win....plus even though we have slipped to B- on the trend line , we are still B+ overall...which gives us a 1/3 chance of dancing. However if we get to A- our chances go up to 3/4....and there are still 8 games to go...plus A-10 tourney...a lot of bball still left to play... But first we need to win. St. B comes in matching us at B+....but they are trending at A. At 9-1 in the A-10 they are currently in 1st pl. Yet, we are only 1 game out on the lost side. So here is what we are looking at ..... .............................SLU.................................St B........................................................SLU...................................St. B .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A....................................C............................................................B-.......................................A+...12th ITN FG%.........................A+...16th ITN.................C+..........................................................C+......................................A+...14th ITN 3Pt%........................A-...................................D-...........................................................D........................................A FT%.........................B-.... ..............................C.......................................................................................................A+...5th ITN Reb.........................B-....................................A-..........................................................A+...7th ITN.....................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Offense...none ......Defense ...none Down...Offense....3P%........Defense....PPG....FG% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins...8th ...dn Rebs...Goodwin....13th....dn 3P%....Perkins....99th...dn Blks...French...65th ...dn Double Double....Goodwin...8th ...dn St. B Assts...Lofton...56th Reb...Osunniyi...29th FG%...Adaway....63rd Blks...Osunniyi...32 Injuries St. B......Roberts...G...Out indef...1/20/21...Personal matter...Tending to a personal matter...will be out an undetermined amount of time. The Bonnies have an average offense...they can rebound ...and they play defense....and they play defense with a capital D. This will be the best D we will face all year. WWN2D2W....We need to make some shots...48/36/75 ...generate 75 pts....St. B has an average offense...but they have 2 guys who can shoot from the arc...Welch and Holmes...hold these 2 guys to three 3PM combined. They have a good starting 5...hold their top 3 to less than 40 pts...No mistakes ...we need to have 3 TOs less than them. ...beat them on the boards...hold Osunniyi to 7 rebs... Bottom line ...We need a win...A tough team to beat but it can be done...we don't need a great game...we need an average Bills game (prepause) ...Let's torch the welders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll believe it when I see it. And I'll be ecstatic to be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Honestly, Wiz, now is not the time to be rationale! Dr. Holly Hills likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 By 4 in TOs, sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrjoelabs Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I love the Wiz but I can't see this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: Another tough loss...If you are a glutton for punishment, you can check out the post game LaS spread thread to see the how and why we lost.. Otherwise, we move onto the "rust chart" ...something I would rather not do but it is a way to measure our progress after the pause...btw, if you are interested in post covid effects ...again check out the post game LaS spread thread. Here is the rust chart .............Pt spread.......Forward Projection to return to prepause play after St. B game (i.e. to get back to 12/23/20 shape) Win......by 7 or less..............on target.....3 games to go Win..... by 7+.......................ahead of schedule...2 games to go Loss.....by 4 or less............stalled out ...4 games to go Loss......by 5+......................slipping...rest of the regular season It isn't all bad news ....we are still favored to win....plus even though we have slipped to B- on the trend line , we are still B+ overall...which gives us a 1/3 chance of dancing. However if we get to A- our chances go up to 3/4....and there are still 8 games to go...plus A-10 tourney...a lot of bball still left to play... But first we need to win. St. B comes in matching us at B+....but they are trending at A. At 9-1 in the A-10 they are currently in 1st pl. Yet, we are only 1 game out on the lost side. So here is what we are looking at ..... .............................SLU.................................St B........................................................SLU...................................St. B .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A....................................C............................................................B-.......................................A+...12th ITN FG%.........................A+...16th ITN.................C+..........................................................C+......................................A+...14th ITN 3Pt%........................A-...................................D-...........................................................D........................................A FT%.........................B-.... ..............................C.......................................................................................................A+...5th ITN Reb.........................B-....................................A-..........................................................A+...7th ITN.....................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Offense...none ......Defense ...none Down...Offense....3P%........Defense....PPG....FG% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins...8th ...dn Rebs...Goodwin....13th....dn 3P%....Perkins....99th...dn Blks...French...65th ...dn Double Double....Goodwin...8th ...dn St. B Assts...Lofton...56th Reb...Osunniyi...29th FG%...Adaway....63rd Blks...Osunniyi...32 Injuries St. B......Roberts...G...Out indef...1/20/21...Personal matter...Tending to a personal matter...will be out an undetermined amount of time. The Bonnies have an average offense...they can rebound ...and they play defense....and they play defense with a capital D. This will be the best D we will face all year. WWN2D2W....We need to make some shots...48/36/75 ...generate 75 pts....St. B has an average offense...but they have 2 guys who can shoot from the arc...Welch and Holmes...hold these 2 guys to three 3PM combined. They have a good starting 5...hold their top 3 to less than 40 pts...No mistakes ...we need to have 3 TOs less than them. ...beat them on the boards...hold Osunniyi to 7 rebs... Bottom line ...We need a win...A tough team to beat but it can be done...we don't need a great game...we need an average Bills game (prepause) ...Let's torch the welders. Thank you Wiz I am keeping the faith. It would be nice to get Hargrove back as another option. Bell played well and so did Thatch so if the starters can come back to form then make the run in the A10 tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcbill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From the Wiz’s lips to God’s ears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Some interesting St. B stuff. We have played 10 games, they have played 10 games. They play only 7 players with five players averaging double figure points. Lofton usually goes 40 min. And don't rely on fouling out their starters. In their 10 games, Osunniyi has fouled out once and Welch once. We have had 4 DQ in our 10 games. Lofton is shooting 9%, yes NINE % from the arc. He is 3 of 32. (So watch him go off for 5 of 6.) Welch and Holmes are both 40% three point shooters and they both launch about 5 per game. Osunniyi is averaging 2.1 blocks per game. (French is averaging 1.6 bpg.) Adawy, not Osunniyi, has the best FG% on the team at 59%. Osunniyi hits only 49% of his shots, which to me isn't all that great as his shot are mostly around the rim. As you would expect, Osunniyi is their leading rebounder at 9.1 rpg. Four of their 5 ironmen average 6 or more boards per game. Don't foul these guys. They shot 70% from the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 I guess one thing I don't understand is the bad mouthing of our good wins over NC State (SOS 73) and LSU (SOS 57). I guess if people thought these 2 teams were going to be Final 4 teams I would understand. I think most people on the board would think a win over St. B would be a pretty good win....1st place team that is 9-1 in the A-10. Well St, B is a B+ team same as NC State right now. As for LSU they are currently an A team ...32nd ITN in my rankings. These teams are lamenting our losses even more than we are theirs. And let us not forget both teams play in A rated conferences ...SEC #3 & ACC #4. For those that read the medical report in the LaS spread thread, you will remember that it said that it takes about 2 weeks to recover ( for some) once you are OK. That 2 weeks is now...That doesn't mean we will be at Dec23 level on Sat but that we should start to recover slowly back to form. cgeldmacher and drkelsey55 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: I guess one thing I don't understand is the bad mouthing of our good wins over NC State (SOS 73) and LSU (SOS 57). I guess if people thought these 2 teams were going to be Final 4 teams I would understand. I think most people on the board would think a win over St. B would be a pretty good win....1st place team that is 9-1 in the A-10. Well St, B is a B+ team same as NC State right now. As for LSU they are currently an A team ...32nd ITN in my rankings. These teams are lamenting our losses even more than we are theirs. And let us not forget both teams play in A rated conferences ...SEC #3 & ACC #4. For those that read the medical report in the LaS spread thread, you will remember that it said that it takes about 2 weeks to recover ( for some) once you are OK. That 2 weeks is now...That doesn't mean we will be at Dec23 level on Sat but that we should start to recover slowly back to form. Didn't NC State lose their leading scorer to an ACL recently? That's pretty hard to come back from for a team too. You and I have talked a lot in the past about grades, and my opinion of a B team of any kind is probably not the same as others. Time is running short, but the team who beat those teams early is still around somewhere (we hope). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is from the Athletic today Let’s try a quick blind résumé game. Team A is No. 53 in Net, 0-1 in Quad 1 games and just 1-0 in Quad 2. It has a pair of Quad 3 losses, along with the No. 252 overall schedule and the No. 79 strength of record, according to ESPN’s BPI. Does that sound like an NCAA Tournament profile to you? That’s the portfolio of Saint Louis, which was ranked for several weeks while on pause for COVID-19 issues. The Billikens are 0-2 since returning, including a humbling loss to La Salle on Wednesday. Earlier wins against LSU and NC State have lost plenty of luster. Not only is SLU not a tournament team right now, but there’s also no guarantee of an at-large for the Atlantic 10, which is surprising. We do have VCU in the First Four, and that worked out pretty well for the Rams once upon a time. Team B is 57th in the NET, 0-5 in Quad 1 but a respectable 5-1 in Quad 2 with no bad losses. It ranks 43rd at KenPom.com and 34th in the BPI strength of record, with the No. 88 schedule. You probably figured out that’s North Carolina. The Tar Heels have some decent numbers on the sheet, but that 0-5 is a killer and is keeping them out of our field. They could pick up an all-important Q1 victory Saturday in Durham against some other non-tournament team whose name we forget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 -can UNC and Duke tie? both teams need the win in a big way for the tournament hopes, first time in 60 years neither team ranked when they play, how glorious!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, JettFlight5 said: Didn't NC State lose their leading scorer to an ACL recently? That's pretty hard to come back from for a team too. You and I have talked a lot in the past about grades, and my opinion of a B team of any kind is probably not the same as others. Time is running short, but the team who beat those teams early is still around somewhere (we hope). Daniels, their leading scorer, is a big loss. After he got hurt , NC St played Syr ( A- ) @Syr , For that game , NC St was missing 5 players including their 1st & 3rd best scorers...and yet only lost by 3. After Syr , they played Va (A+ ) who I still have as 7th ITN and the Wolfpack lost by 7. They were down 4 players for that game. NC St is similar in many ways to the Bills. We are both B+ teams with a 1/3 chance to make the Dance and both teams are trending the wrong way ...both at B-. Both face uncertain futures. NC St how many players will they have going forward. And the Bills ...how many players in top shape going forward. The Wolf Pack schedule will be a brutal one in the ACC. ( an A rated conference ) The A-10 is a B+ rated conference ...so no cake walk but an easier road than NC St. One of the important factors coming down the stretch will be the final 10 games of the season ( including tourney games) . We aren't down to that yet but we are close so hopefully our recovery will pick up in time to do well during that stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -can UNC and Duke tie? both teams need the win in a big way for the tournament hopes, first time in 60 years neither team ranked when they play, how glorious!! Duke over NC by 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 A lot of money has been made betting against SLU their first two games back. Look for that trend to continue if St. Bon is getting points tomorrow (haven't checked lines online). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 53 minutes ago, Slu let the dogs out? said: A lot of money has been made betting against SLU their first two games back. Look for that trend to continue if St. Bon is getting points tomorrow (haven't checked lines online). If Bonnies are getting points tomorrow, someone would be insane to bet on SLU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, Littlebill said: If Bonnies are getting points tomorrow, someone would be insane to bet on SLU I could not believe Dayton was getting 9.5 points in SLU's first game back after a 30+ day COVID pause where pretty much the entire team tested positive. Even my brother who does not bet set up an account to place some bets. I definitely thought SLU would squeak out a win but winning by 10+ was crazy talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Slu let the dogs out? said: I could not believe Dayton was getting 9.5 points in SLU's first game back after a 30+ day COVID pause. Even my brother who does not bet set up an account to place some bets. I definitely thought SLU would squeak out a win but winning by 10+ was crazy talk. Agreed, I wanted to place a bet but slept at the wheel. I too thought it would be nail-bitter. Same With Lasalle being on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Here is an interesting stat heading into the St. B game. After playing 3 1/2 years of basketball together, Goodwin and French have the same number of rebounds, 892, tied for 5th on the career list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Here is an interesting stat heading into the St. B game. After playing 3 1/2 years of basketball together, Goodwin and French have the same number of rebounds, 892, tied for 5th on the career list. love having 2 guys play all four together, Douglas, Gray, TL111, Lisch, and these 2 are 3 great examples. HoosierPal likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, almaman said: love having 2 guys play all four together, Douglas, Gray, TL111, Lisch, and these 2 are 3 great examples. Don't forget about Claggs and Highmark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pretty cool graphic by SBUnfurled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 51 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Pretty cool graphic by SBUnfurled. Why does Gibby look so tiny? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: Why does Gibby look so tiny? In that same vane, Javonte is the Hulk! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: Why does Gibby look so tiny? It’s based on usage rate, and Gibson has a very low usage rate this season. We need to get him more shots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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