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We are now over 2,000 deaths. At our current trajectory, we will be over 10,000 deaths by next Saturday. If the curve is completely flat, we are still looking at almost 6,000 deaths by next Saturday. 
 

I just wanted to point out that as we argue what is good modeling or not, we are getting actual data of our cases in. I hope OG is right and things aren’t going to get much worse.

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2 hours ago, courtside said:

According to Neil Ferguson (not me) Ferguson did not change projection in number of deaths as you stated in your post. My source is him, as in the guy involved with the exact models you referenced. This will be my last post on the subject. Read his tweets which I kindly posted in my first response and start there and work backwards. 

Again of all the wide variety of things associated with COVID-19, this is one of which my interest level is small. Your post initial post was not accurate according to Neil Ferguson. I recommend you strike up a conversation with him movinh forward, as, I am not involved.

THIS is the evidence you present to show I am misrepresenting and maligning this guy? Are you kidding me? He gave testimony to Parliament and now he says he did not change the findings in the article. Can you read the article at all? Please do not bother me any more with this line of thinking. Believe what you want.

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We are now almost to 2,300 domestic deaths. This is serious. I hope this pace slows in the next few days. 

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4 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:

We are now almost to 2,300 domestic deaths. This is serious. I hope this pace slows in the next few days. 

America has had 24,000 deaths attributed to the flu this flu season.  

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53 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

America has had 24,000 deaths attributed to the flu this flu season.  

Here is the problem with your position.  First, 24K deaths for any reason is not something we should be proud of.  Second, we have vaccines for the flu that pretty much protects all of us to varying degrees but we do not have anything like that for this issue.  Third, people who get the flu recover at a very high rate something like 99.9% and we have a very high % of the population who get it or some form of it.  Finally, comparing this matter to the flu is just plain inaccurate. I really do not expect those who think as you do to understand but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.  Be safe Roy.

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43 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Here is the problem with your position.  First, 24K deaths for any reason is not something we should be proud of.  Second, we have vaccines for the flu that pretty much protects all of us to varying degrees but we do not have anything like that for this issue.  Third, people who get the flu recover at a very high rate something like 99.9% and we have a very high % of the population who get it or some form of it.  Finally, comparing this matter to the flu is just plain inaccurate. I really do not expect those who think as you do to understand but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.  Be safe Roy.

No one seems to be to answer my question.   Why is it justified to set off the panic this virus has done when there are more people killed each year by the flu, or cancer, or heart disease and there is no manufactured panic by the media for those?   

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6 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

No one seems to be to answer my question.   Why is it justified to set off the panic this virus has done when there are more people killed each year by the flu, or cancer, or heart disease and there is no manufactured panic by the media for those?   

Heart disease and cancer are mostly noncommunicable diseases. While the flu is deadly, it is predictable. We know flu season is going to end here, and we know it is going to start up again come the fall. COVID-19 we just don know about. At best, it is going to kill “only” 2000 people in the US, and then will disappear like SARS. However, we don’t know the trajectory. In one month it could be over forever, for the year and return in the fall, or just continue building. Even with social distancing, we are seeing huge increases in the number of cases and deaths, and who knows how much hat would be exacerbated if we didn’t have these measures in place. Also, if we can at least push this peak of the curve back to AFTER flu season, the resources don’t have to be dedicated to both flu and COVID—19. I’m sure there are many more valid points people can add, but hopefully this supports why the CDC and WHO are recommending these drastic measures for this particular infection, even if there have been more realized deaths from the flu so far. 

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16 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

No one seems to be to answer my question.   Why is it justified to set off the panic this virus has done when there are more people killed each year by the flu, or cancer, or heart disease and there is no manufactured panic by the media for those?   

Still trying to "own the libs"?

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24 minutes ago, bills10 said:

Heart disease and cancer are mostly noncommunicable diseases. While the flu is deadly, it is predictable. We know flu season is going to end here, and we know it is going to start up again come the fall. COVID-19 we just don know about. At best, it is going to kill “only” 2000 people in the US, and then will disappear like SARS. However, we don’t know the trajectory. In one month it could be over forever, for the year and return in the fall, or just continue building. Even with social distancing, we are seeing huge increases in the number of cases and deaths, and who knows how much hat would be exacerbated if we didn’t have these measures in place. Also, if we can at least push this peak of the curve back to AFTER flu season, the resources don’t have to be dedicated to both flu and COVID—19. I’m sure there are many more valid points people can add, but hopefully this supports why the CDC and WHO are recommending these drastic measures for this particular infection, even if there have been more realized deaths from the flu so far. 

No you have not justified why such a panic when more are affected by the flu each year with a fraction of concern by the media and medical community.   We are headed for a depression because of the current hysteria.   Why no hysteria for the annual flu season?

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I think that it will be good for everyone if we really take this matter seriously and are quarantined.
 We all need to go the way of China, only this way we can win.
 For example, my parents came to visit me and as soon as they left, I immediately ordered a home disinfection from them https://shen-us.com/
 I think if we all try our best!

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22 minutes ago, bills10 said:

Heart disease and cancer are mostly noncommunicable diseases. While the flu is deadly, it is predictable. We know flu season is going to end here, and we know it is going to start up again come the fall. COVID-19 we just don know about. At best, it is going to kill “only” 2000 people in the US, and then will disappear like SARS. However, we don’t know the trajectory. In one month it could be over forever, for the year and return in the fall, or just continue building. Even with social distancing, we are seeing huge increases in the number of cases and deaths, and who knows how much hat would be exacerbated if we didn’t have these measures in place. Also, if we can at least push this peak of the curve back to AFTER flu season, the resources don’t have to be dedicated to both flu and COVID—19. I’m sure there are many more valid points people can add, but hopefully this supports why the CDC and WHO are recommending these drastic measures for this particular infection, even if there have been more realized deaths from the flu so far. 

I agree with this.  I can totally understand Roy’s position given that the scenario of 2+ million people dying in the streets bc they can’t breathe seems like a fantasy that would never occur.  There is also a non-zero chance that the virus was here in December and the vast majority of U.S citizens have already been exposed to it.  The asymptomatic spread is truly the most maddening thing to try to manage.  

The country has decided to take the pandemic as serious as a ‘free’ country possibly could. 

The only thing that drives an ‘all clear’ call at this point may be some kind of breakthrough vaccine, easy/quick test, or treatment.

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3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

America has had 24,000 deaths attributed to the flu this flu season.  

Flu season begins in October. America had its first COVID-19 death on February 29.  26 days later we were over 1000 deaths.  3 days later we're at over 2000 deaths.  The graph looks like this:

image.thumb.png.9be100ccdc9b61285c55cacf85f197b7.png

If we don't flatten the curve in the next 6-7 days, we're going to see a whole lot more than the 24,000 deaths produced by the flu since October.  That's not an opinion, that's math.  And this is all since February 29.

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We follow a sport played by young men at a university dedicated to the future of young people.  Where is this 2 trillion dollars  coming from? It's being charged to the credit cards of young people and it will have a devastating impact on them in the future.  What good is a degree, when the dollar collapses? 

In my view, we have taken time to size up this virus.  We know that the most vulnerable are the old and those with health issues.  We need to isolate that population as best we can until a vaccine is available.  The rest of us need to get back to work.  

Yes our hospitals will be over run and people will die, maybe even me.  But even if we stay cooped up, our hospitals  will still be over run and people will die.

We lose roughly 35,000 people per year to car accidents. We could drop the national speed limit to 20 miles per hour and drastically reduce that number.  Why dont we? 

If we all had to go to work this week to put food on our tables, we would do it. The millenial credit card we are using to shut down the country, provides the illusion that we can sit around for however long we want to, with no consequences.

At 62, I'm on the edge of the risk pool.  I am willing  to take my chances with the virus. I have and will continue to isolate my 86 year old mother as best I can.  But I dont want to wreck the financial futures of this country, my children, and God willing, future grand children.  No matter what we do, the virus will spread

 

 

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Roy, if the non-corona flu pandemics are so important, why have you never posted a word about them? Why has President Trump never mentioned them? It must be a conspiracy! The fake news and media have never said a word about the flu until this came along!

Quick, go to ERs and ICUs around the country, tell em all more people die from most all of the top 15 mortality causes, and nothing is being done about any of them.
 

This is a unarguable and never ending position our high school debate coached called “Bright Shiny Object.” You can never get past an ad infintum argument, because the opponent never engages germane facts and positive actions, they just circle, rinse, and repeat.

More people die every year from heart disease, cancer, accidents, COPD, strokes, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, flu, kidney disease, suicide, and others than Covid, and no one “panics” over them. 

I say a prayer of thanks every day that there are enough people panicking that our health care professionals, at some point, will have enough PPE and resources to begin adequately fighting this scourge.

I also pray that the institutional government(that is deep state, for some) will develop and act on lessons learned from this clusterxxxx, and claw back the needed infrastructure from the Asian rim so we have all the manufacturing base we need to be self reliant for PPE, meds, and technical platforms. Fxxx bottom line profit spreadsheets and stock values, we need capacity, capability, and competency. When we have none of the three, all we do is play pass the buck, dither, and prevaricate, waiting for other countries to save our bacon.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

We follow a sport played by young men at a university dedicated to the future of young people.  Where is this 2 trillion dollars  coming from? It's being charged to the credit cards of young people and it will have a devastating impact on them in the future.  What good is a degree, when the dollar collapses? 

In my view, we have taken time to size up this virus.  We know that the most vulnerable are the old and those with health issues.  We need to isolate that population as best we can until a vaccine is available.  The rest of us need to get back to work.  

Yes our hospitals will be over run and people will die, maybe even me.  But even if we stay cooped up, our hospitals  will still be over run and people will die.

We lose roughly 35,000 people per year to car accidents. We could drop the national speed limit to 20 miles per hour and drastically reduce that number.  Why dont we? 

If we all had to go to work this week to put food on our tables, we would do it. The millenial credit card we are using to shut down the country, provides the illusion that we can sit around for however long we want to, with no consequences.

At 62, I'm on the edge of the risk pool.  I am willing  to take my chances with the virus. I have and will continue to isolate my 86 year old mother as best I can.  But I dont want to wreck the financial futures of this country, my children, and God willing, future grand children.  No matter what we do, the virus will spread

 

 

The issue the federal government and governors have to deal with isn't whether Aquinas is willing to take his chances with the virus.  It's whether they should ask everyone to take their chance with the virus.  At the end of the day, you have to be able to answer: what is an acceptable level of deaths?  

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Flu season begins in October. America had its first COVID-19 death on February 29.  26 days later we were over 1000 deaths.  3 days later we're at over 2000 deaths.  The graph looks like this:

image.thumb.png.9be100ccdc9b61285c55cacf85f197b7.png

If we don't hit the peak in the next 6-7 days, we're going to see a whole lot more than the 24,000 deaths produced by the flu since October.  That's not an opinion, that's math.  And this is all since February 29.

Yes, I recall seeing the exact type of exponential curves of death early on during the HIV media induced terror. These curves were extrapolated to the level where the number of deaths would be calculated as a percentage of the total population of the world. It has happened before. The HIV epidemic was my area of work at the time. The population of the US was "virgin" to this bug, just like it is now to Covid-19. This bug had a restricted mode of transmission basically defined as blood borne (including blood based products, and IV drug usage) and sexual transmission. The exponential portion of the curve, with HIV, was due to the fact that the portion of the population most susceptible to  the disease plus the portion of the population in a highest risk category were the ones that were dying like flies at the start of this disease. This means that hemophiliacs receiving blood and platelet transfusions to control bleeding episodes were almost wiped out right away. Lots of stuff going on with the  media and with politicians at the time. My calculations showed a gradual flattening of the curve with a peak yearly death rate of 50,000 in the US.

When you gradually take away all the media, all the exponential curves pointing straight to the  moon that were published, and all the political hoopla generated, the epidemic of HIV transitioned into a chronic disease. The yearly death rate reached a peak of about 65,000 to 70,000  and then started decreasing. US HIV death rate was at about 30-35,000 per year the last time I checked MMWR (Mortality  and Morbidity Weekly Review), about 8 years ago. HIV is a terrible disease that wastes the patients visibly and SLOWLY kills them, nothing fast about this bug. It causes neurological involvement and degeneration, and by the time the patients die of this they are more than ready to go.

Yes, in the face of the  panic at the time of the HIV epidemic, my work went nowhere within my then company, the board was just as panicked as everyone else was.

There is a huge number of similarities between the way the Covid epidemic is playing and the  way the HIV epidemic played. The media played a most important part in the public perception of both epidemics. Panic was everywhere at that time, as it is now.

I believe something similar to what happened with  HIV is happening now with Covid, and, of course, very few people have a good memory of 1985-86 when this drama played out. Even fewer people involved in it as it played itself out. Then, as it is now, the epidemic became a public platform, the media fanned the panic, and everyone was scared.

Now, regarding Covid, and setting aside HIV, you must keep in mind a number of facts if you are going to retain your sanity:

1. Of course those people in the population most susceptible (or least naturally resistant to this disease or most debilitated when they got it) will die rapidly at the beginnings of the initial phase of  the epidemic. This is the phase we are in now.

2. The more you test, the  more cases you find. If the tests used at the start of the epidemic are not accurate and produce false positives and false negatives the numbers of cases become unreliable.

3. Lots of money have been approved to deal with this epidemic. In order to  secure the largest amount of the funds available everyone testing positive for the disease that dies is likely to be pronounced as a Covid death.

4. The fact does remain that having contact with the virus and dying soon afterwards, does NOT mean the virus caused the death. It can be caused by any other unrelated cause, but it will likely be blamed upon Covid.

This too will come to an end when the panic and the furor over all of this becomes a matter of fact that is slowly accepted. People will be infected with this bug, some will die from it, most will not. The initial flush of  deaths which eliminates the most susceptible portions of the population does not count, the curve will flatten and this will NOT be the black plague #2.

Please feel free to think I am FOS, and feel free to believe what you want.

 

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14 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Roy, if the non-corona flu pandemics are so important, why have you never posted a word about them? Why has President Trump never mentioned them? It must be a conspiracy! The fake news and media have never said a word about the flu until this came along!

Quick, go to ERs and ICUs around the country, tell em all more people die from most all of the top 15 mortality causes, and nothing is being done about any of them.
 

This is a unarguable and never ending position our high school debate coached called “Bright Shiny Object.” You can never get past an ad infintum argument, because the opponent never engages germane facts and positive actions, they just circle, rinse, and repeat.

More people die every year from heart disease, cancer, accidents, COPD, strokes, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, flu, kidney disease, suicide, and others than Covid, and no one “panics” over them. 

I say a prayer of thanks every day that there are enough people panicking that our health care professionals, at some point, will have enough PPE and resources to begin adequately fighting this scourge.

I also pray that the institutional government(that is deep state, for some) will develop and act on lessons learned from this clusterxxxx, and claw back the needed infrastructure from the Asian rim so we have all the manufacturing base we need to be self reliant for PPE, meds, and technical platforms. Fxxx bottom line profit spreadsheets and stock values, we need capacity, capability, and competency. When we have none of the three, all we do is play pass the buck, dither, and prevaricate, waiting for other countries to save our bacon.

 

 

Cliff, i am not asking for a hysterical  panic for the flu.   I am saying that the hysterical panic for this virus shouldnt have happened. 

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Roy, I hope my post above clears up your mind about some of the issues you have been asking about. These things have a life of their own.

3star, Aguinas and Roy:

No one can say that X number of thousands of deaths are acceptable, that would be political and social suicide. Still all people die at some point or the other, and many of the people dying of this disease will have any number of other medical conditions in them by  the time they die. No one has lived forever, or is likely to live forever. Death is a part of life as sure as the sun coming out in the morning.

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Old Guy didn't the HIV curve flatten because of changes in behavior?  Had people gone about life as though HIV wasn't really a big deal and made no changes to behavior, what would the curve have looked like?

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Fauci apparently predicted this morning that the US would see millions of cases and 100,000-200,000 deaths. I missed the segment, so I’m not sure of the timeframe in which this would occur. Also, not sure if his prediction is based on maintaining current mitigation practices. 

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2 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Roy, I hope my post above clears up your mind about some of the issues you have been asking about. These things have a life of their own.

3star, Aguinas and Roy:

No one can say that X number of thousands of deaths are acceptable, that would be political and social suicide. Still all people die at some point or the other, and many of the people dying of this disease will have any number of other medical conditions in them by  the time they die. No one has lived forever, or is likely to live forever. Death is a part of life as sure as the sun coming out in the morning.

But behind closed doors, decision makers do have to answer that question and act accordingly.  It's such a scary question that the most opinionated posters on this board decline to answer it.  I don't blame you.  Nobody wants to be put in the horrific position of public health administrators, even hypothetically.

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I really thought this thread would die down now that we have an open scholarship. That is so much more fun to discuss. 

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7 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Fauci apparently predicted this morning that the US would see millions of cases and 100,000-200,000 deaths. I missed the segment, so I’m not sure of the timeframe in which this would occur. Also, not sure if his prediction is based on maintaining current mitigation practices. 

Fauci is also the doc in the 80's that said we could get aids from kissing.   I have no doubt he is a very smart man, but he lives for this stuff.

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Fauci is also the doc in the 80's that said we could get aids from kissing.   I have no doubt he is a very smart man, but he lives for this stuff.

I googled this and all I found was a Coulter article that allegedly quotes one sentence. Can you show me where he said this? I am curious to see the context 

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