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The Wiz

Day over The Bills by 15

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For those with a strong stomach, you can look at the post game post on the spread thread for Duq. for the results analysis.  It was the 1st game after Ground Hog Day and turned out like the movie ....same thing over & over...with the same result...a 14 pt loss.

Well the good news is even with the numbers deteriorating we remain a B team....The bad news is that we have slipped to C+ on the trending line....meanwhile Day comes in at an A+ & A +. This is easily the best offensive team we have faced or will face this year.  Besides the spread in the headline of this post, if we take the trend line spread ....it gets worse ...21pts.

Let's get down in the dirt and see  what the report card looks like....

..............................SLU...........................Day...............................................................SLU................................DAY

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C...............................A+..4th ITN...................................................B......................................B

FG%.........................C-..............................A+...1st ITN............................................... ..B+...................................C+

3Pt%........................C-..............................A..................................................................C-.....................................D

FT%.........................F-....WITN..................B-... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A.................................C................................................................C.......................................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....8th  ITN....unchanged

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse....UP ....none......... DOWN......Reb.....Def PPG.....Def FG%...Def 3P%

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...29th.....up

Assts...Y Collins....43rd.....down

Rebs...French...9th....Goodwin..16th......unchanged  and down

Off Reb....French ...9th...Goodwin...41st...unchanged  and down

Def reb...Goodwin ...20th...French...32th....down & up

Blks.....French....15th...up

FG% ...Toppin... 31st (62.8 %)

PPG...Toppin....29th (19.7)

Assts...Crutcher...44th

 

Injury report......

Thatch...G..1/ 8/20....out indefinitely...no change

Johnson...F...1/10/2020...OFTS.....medically withdrawn...post concussion syndrome.& mono

Sissoke...C...11/11/19.....OFTS.....Red shirt

 

Before we figure out how to win we need to look at the last game with Day because except for the final tenth of a second in OT when they threw up a prayer...we had them beat.......so yes it is possible...First let's look at the Day slash...45/ 36 / 68..rather mediocre for a team that has the best FG% ITN and is 4th ITN in 3P%....The Bills had  45/ 33/ 54....very similar to the best offense ITN....and for the naysayers who say... AHA... FREE THROWS...Let me point out we made 7 more FTs than Day....Also we had 45 reb to their 33 ...dominant.  ...our weakness last game was TOs as we lost that battle 17-12...not only did the TO differential cost us 10 pts....but we went over the magic number of 16 which usually leads to a loss.

WWN2D2W...Do what we did last time...Match them on the slash...by holding them down defensively and making some shots.... one of the few weaknesses that Day has is 3P def...the question is can we take advantage of that ...can we make the 3s?...Dominate the boards again....protect the ball...shoot for 11 TOs....stop Toppin...he had 20 last game which is his average but since it was an OT game this was a good  job on him....if Toppin is having trouble scoring (is this an oxymoron?) they will look for Crutcher who actually was the high scorer in the last game with 21 pts...need to hold both players to less than 20 pts....and finally hold them to below 70 pts...a good thing to do to a team that averages over 80 /gm.

Bottom line...So how does it look ? On paper ...not good....but remember we play to the competition which in this case is a good thing...To quote Jim Carrey...."So you mean there's a chance"

Yes

 

...

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Law of averages says Dayton is due to lose, we should be plenty pissed...Like Al Bundy would say....Let's Rock

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This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch.  I am not going to be able to handle the stomping in front of a packed house of sweater vests.  

I feel like this might just be an post-game evening box score check.

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-I still believe 3 possible outcomes, we win, lose a close one or lose by 35

-Wiz, what is Dayton's home court advantage versus ours?

-Let's get this one Bills!

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38 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch.  

 

2014-2016 wasnt too long ago 

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1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-I still believe 3 possible outcomes, we win, lose a close one or lose by 35

-Wiz, what is Dayton's home court advantage versus ours?

-Let's get this one Bills!

The Fetz home advantage....4.17

Dayton ...Home advantage...4.72

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4 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch.  I am not going to be able to handle the stomping in front of a packed house of sweater vests.  

I feel like this might just be an post-game evening box score check.

I refuse to watch car crashes, but I'll watch this.  I think this is the type of team that might pull out the W against Dayton and still not make the tourney.  Might as well watch the games I can.

Because I'm not watching the fuoking NIT.

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2 minutes ago, jimbofive said:

I refuse to watch car crashes, but I'll watch this.  I think this is the type of team that might pull out the W against Dayton and still not make the tourney.  Might as well watch the games I can.

Because I'm not watching the fuoking NIT.

As I posted earlier.  We get upset at this team but man, just 3-6 years go we had some p.a.t.h.e.t.i.c. teams.   

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13 minutes ago, wgstl said:

As I posted earlier.  We get upset at this team but man, just 3-6 years go we had some p.a.t.h.e.t.i.c. teams.   

No doubt.  Supportive, but not content.  Team should feel the same.

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Payback. Perfect payback would be JGood hitting both ends of a 1-1 with 1 tick on the clock and we win by 1. 

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10 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

I'm not particularly enthused about this game, but it's as good of an excuse as any to day drink.

Read my mind 

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1 hour ago, jimbofive said:

No doubt.  Supportive, but not content.  Team should feel the same.

If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching

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20 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching

This is the correct take.  

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It's time for our guys to ask for paystubs- backyard brawl, y'all!

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4 hours ago, Littlebill said:

If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching

Leaves Hines out of it.  Just a walkon.  He would have never played if the scholarship players didn't suck so much.

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Bills don't need to play nervous or apprehensive for this one because nothing is really on the line for us at this point. Just let loose and go all out.

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4 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

This is the correct take.  

+1

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C'mon, folks, all is not lost. Upsets are the rule this year. Let's go Bills! 

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55 minutes ago, slu72 said:

C'mon, folks, all is not lost. Upsets are the rule this year. Let's go Bills! 

It is possible. Just the other night Vandy with 0 SEC wins beat LSU who was undefeated. Lots of things will have to go the Bills way tomorrow as they got Dayton's attention when the 1st game was played at Chaifetz.

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If I can sit through a early season drubbing by SH, a frustrating loss to Davidson, and 2 beat downs by the Dukes—-I will watch this beginning to end even if we get blown out by 30.  I want to see this team fight back (which I believe they will).  I’m hoping for at least a respectable showing with a outside chance of a upset.  

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Again , close but no cigar. We played a good game. I think if French doesn't foul out , we win. We did almost everything we needed to do to win....Almost though doesn't cut it against the 6th rated team ITN and you are away....you have to be perfect.

Let's see  the story behind the numbers....from WWN2D2W in the original post.

First the good stuff...

Match them on the slash...by holding them down defensively and making some shots.....We did this pretty much....Bills...49/46/63...that is a good slash....Day...49/29//74...we actually had 2 extra FGM...and matched them on 3PM...more on FTs below.

one of the few weaknesses that Day has is 3P def...the question is can we take advantage of that ...can we make the 3s?...the answer is yes...see slash above

Dominate the boards again...We did...33-27

stop Toppin...he had 20 last game which is his average but since it was an OT game this was a good  job on him....if Toppin is having trouble scoring (is this an oxymoron?) they will look for Crutcher who actually was the high scorer in the last game with 21 pts...need to hold both players to less than 20 pts.....This too was a success...even though those 2 were their high scorers...we held both to 17...both held to less than 20...success

And now the bad...

protect the ball...shoot for 11 TOs....We had 13 TOs which isn't too bad....4 less than last time and close enough to 11....but in the end even with a pretty good number this was one of the killers...Why? ... because Day had only 6 TOs...a difference of 7 TOs which is a lot ...worth 14 pts...a game changer

FTs...Yes they beat us on % but that wasn't what did us in ...as I have preached before on a number of posts...it was the FTAs that was the difference maker...they had an extra 11 FTAs...worth an extra 8 pts...a game changer...Most of the games we have played this year we have had the advantage in FTAs...  when we don't, we tend to lose.

and finally hold them to below 70 pts....Almost but not quite...just like the game almost but not quite...Why ? ...see the above 2 items.

Bottom line...Almost...If French has played a full game or if we had a little more depth (missing players) we could have had this one (as well as the last Day game)  We will just have to beat them next time in Brooklyn.

 

 

 

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