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brianstl

This team in the rankings

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18 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

Your main point about strength of schedule? You said:

"Just take a scenario where one team plays and beats the 150th and 151st ranked teams while the other beats the #1 and #300 teams.  Both teams are 2-0 and, on average, have the same strength of schedule" 

That's just not correct. SOS calculations also take into account other factors...margin of victory for example

I edited.

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Glazed, I don't think the quadrant records actually factor into the NET rating.  If they did why make them separate?  I think the quadrant stuff is based on the base NET rating.

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Lot of anger on this board in the last 24 hours over the NET system and the fact the committee still has the final say over who makes the tournament. The NET is certainly better than the RPI but it's not perfect, nor is any computer model. Can you imagine the outrage if Pomeroy's program was the key metric and we were ranked 88 instead of 51? At the end of the day, the committee is still a necessary evil to bring some common sense to the computer model. People are going to argue about the selection of the last two at-large teams every year, but in SLU's long history we've never been on the wrong side of an NCAA selection.

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1 hour ago, kshoe said:

Lot of anger on this board in the last 24 hours over the NET system and the fact the committee still has the final say over who makes the tournament. The NET is certainly better than the RPI but it's not perfect, nor is any computer model. Can you imagine the outrage if Pomeroy's program was the key metric and we were ranked 88 instead of 51? At the end of the day, the committee is still a necessary evil to bring some common sense to the computer model. People are going to argue about the selection of the last two at-large teams every year, but in SLU's long history we've never been on the wrong side of an NCAA selection.

Sure, but they could just adjust the model to more heavily weigh higher quality wins.

 

Also Kenpom doesn’t make sense because it’s a predictive model, not one that assess how good a season you have had.

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As of this morning CBS’s Bracketologist Jerry Palm has Dayton (3 seed) and VCU (11 seed) in, with SLU as the first team out and Richmond as the second team out. 

Good to be in the mix/conversation among the pundits.

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5 minutes ago, Compton said:

As of this morning CBS’s Bracketologist Jerry Palm has Dayton (3 seed) and VCU (11 seed) in, with SLU as the first team out and Richmond as the second team out. 

Good to be in the mix/conversation among the pundits.

hell yeaaaaaah. keep winning baby

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Wisconsin is bailing Saint marys out big time.  Wisconsin was trash early in the season when Saint marys won, not looking like a legit B10 team

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SLU fell two spots in the NET after last night's loss. Still 3rd in the A10: 

Dayton - 5 (up 1)

VCU - 50

SLU - 53 (down 2)

Duquesne - 55

URI - 62

Richmond - 63

Then everyone else starting at 116. 

So Dayton, then a cluster of 5 jockeying to rise above the fray. 

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FWIW,

 

Lunardi currently has VCU as “first four out”

and SLU, Richmond and Rhode Island as “also considered”. We’re still just on the other side of the bubble. The fact that we played Dayton so close and it was such a good game on national television is all good for our at large chances.

 

CF1BF75C-279E-412F-9BB9-2C86989E6C44.jpeg

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1 minute ago, glazedandconfused said:

FWIW,

 

Lunardi currently has VCU as “first four out”

and SLU, Richmond and Rhode Island as “also considered”. We’re still just on the other side of the bubble. The fact that we played Dayton so close and it was such a good game on national television is all good for our at large chances.

 

CF1BF75C-279E-412F-9BB9-2C86989E6C44.jpeg

All well and good, except that we all know when push comes to shove, they'll take Arizona St, Cincy, Tennessee and Alabama over us.

That win last night would have bought us two bad losses.  Now we can't have any, and that still might not be enough.  Unless we can beat Dayton at their place.

Lot of games left in the conference season but we need to win almost all of them and then a game or two in the conference tourney to make it.

I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm any A-10 team, I'm sending the Bills to the line 30-40 times a game, and wearing down their short bench with the physical play to boot.  Anything else would be bad coaching.

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What makes the FT issue so frustrating is that we're just giving away valuable points, and for a team that can't score 3s those lost points become so much more valuable. 

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We need to win the next 5 before the return trip to Dayton. No getting around it now. If we had won last night, we could have afforded a hiccup. Davidson, LaSalle, and St. Joe's on the road are all extremely winnable games. And Duquesne and Fordham at Chaifetz are too. 

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1 hour ago, glazedandconfused said:

FWIW,

 

Lunardi currently has VCU as “first four out”

and SLU, Richmond and Rhode Island as “also considered”. We’re still just on the other side of the bubble. The fact that we played Dayton so close and it was such a good game on national television is all good for our at large chances.

Just to add to that, Lunardi also has Duquesne in as a 12 seed. For whatever reason he's up on them.

 

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1 hour ago, Compton said:

Just to add to that, Lunardi also has Duquesne in as a 12 seed. For whatever reason he's up on them.

 

Duquesne is in as the “tourney winner” since they have the best record in the conference. Seeing as they are below the last at-large teams on lunardi’s bracket, he doesn’t have them as an at-large team currently.

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By CBS's prognostications the Bills have now moved up to being the last team in - with VCU also one of the First Four. Again, good to be in the conversation. 

CBS doesn't appear to adhere to the "best record" approach glazed mentions above. 

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Nice! Let’s pick up a Q2 (for now) road win this week at Davidson and hold serve at home vs Fordham. The way we’ve played our last 2 games is probably the best we’ve looked all year. 

 

And yea, that’s a Lunardi approach to guess who will get the automatic bids for winning tourney. FWIW, Duquesne won’t be in Lunardi’s this week now that Dayton has the same conference record as the Dukes.

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1 minute ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

K State has quietly crept up to almost a Q1 win

Yea, if they can win one of their two games this week. @Kansas and @Alabama (both Q1 opportunities) they would be a Q1 win for us

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1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

This years bills team is a solid A- team. Even the greatest teams lose. That’s basketball. We finally have a top tier team even without Gibson and thatch. Next year is ours

Next year we are what Dayton is this year 

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Just now, Cowboy said:

-for me, screw all this talk about next year, we have this year

I get it, but its still hard to not talk about what we have next year. 

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This is probably the only time since I've paid attention to Bracketology that a team has lost a game while being listed as "out" and got "in" afterward. 

What a wild year of basketball. 

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