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Pistol Summary, 2019 - 2020 Season

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10 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The biggest thing French needs to improve on is his FG%.  Shooting below 50% when every shot you take is inside 8 feet is bad.  It is real bad.  Both he and Goodwin missed way too many bunnies last year.

Agreed.  But we've seen this before.  Conk shot 46% on 2 pointers his sophomore year then 53% his junior year.  With more options and a little less traffic for French (and JG), I think 50%+ is definitely attainable.

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I see three transition keys that Ford must learn early in the season on the offensive side.

The first is can we attack zones adequately, and specifically the 2-3. Last year we started with a combo of Foreman/Bess, and then Bess, who was the flash man at the key to receive the pass in the middle of the zone.

This year, Perkins hopefully can handle the job of splitting the zone. He is tall enough to pass out of the collapsing forest to the wing, center, or pop a mid range jumper. If we go big, I would bet this would be Bell doing the chore.

Second, I expect to see Jimerson, Thatch and Hankton hoisting their share of threes early and often. We need to again replace Bess from 3, and keep teams alert all the way out to the three line. Creating this spacing will enable us to cycle in

Our third critical effort, which involves weaning Goodwin from PG duties, and creating the right blend of Weaver, Collins, and Jacobs to handle a solid majority of the on the ball PG duties. 

The more we can play beautiful ball, the more depth we can create, and this in turn will allow us to expend more effort on defense. Win-win.

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17 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

 

Second, I expect to see Jimerson, Thatch and Hankton hoisting their share of threes early and often. We need to again replace Bess from 3, and keep teams alert all the way out to the three line. Creating this spacing will enable us to cycle in

 

Based on Coach's prior comments (I forget which interview), Thatch was stroking it from 3 over the summer.  If so...watch out. 

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12 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

I see three transition keys that Ford must learn early in the season on the offensive side.

The first is can we attack zones adequately, and specifically the 2-3. Last year we started with a combo of Foreman/Bess, and then Bess, who was the flash man at the key to receive the pass in the middle of the zone.

This year, Perkins hopefully can handle the job of splitting the zone. He is tall enough to pass out of the collapsing forest to the wing, center, or pop a mid range jumper. If we go big, I would bet this would be Bell doing the chore.

Second, I expect to see Jimerson, Thatch and Hankton hoisting their share of threes early and often. We need to again replace Bess from 3, and keep teams alert all the way out to the three line. Creating this spacing will enable us to cycle in

Our third critical effort, which involves weaning Goodwin from PG duties, and creating the right blend of Weaver, Collins, and Jacobs to handle a solid majority of the on the ball PG duties. 

The more we can play beautiful ball, the more depth we can create, and this in turn will allow us to expend more effort on defense. Win-win.

Good points.  Your first point is valid. 

On your second point, we need to do better than replace Bess, Isabell and Wiley's three point results.  Bess and Isabell both ended at 32.5% from the arc. Wiley ended with, for me, a disappointing 29.8%.  (Wiley had connected at 36.7% his last year a Maryland.)  If we can't improve on last season's 30% three point success rate, then Coach had better have a Plan B.  We all have our list of hopeful's, probables, and wishful thinking long range shooters, but until the results are in the stat book, all we can do is keep our fingers crossed. 

As far as PG is concerned, Goodwin really has not played all that much at the point.  He started at PG his first year, but Roby and Hines took over maybe half way through the season.  Last season, Isabell ended up playing more point than Goodwin.  It will be interesting to see who handles the ball out of the gate this season. Weaver's 2.2 apg last season doesn't suggest he is a lock, Collins needs seasoning, and Jacobs didn't look confident in the few trips he took down the floor as primary PG.  So perhaps it will be Goodwin to start out by default?  Fun stuff to discuss and look forward to.

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52 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Agreed.  But we've seen this before.  Conk shot 46% on 2 pointers his sophomore year then 53% his junior year.  With more options and a little less traffic for French (and JG), I think 50%+ is definitely attainable.

By "a little less traffic" I assume you mean that we become enough of a threat from the perimeter that teams are finally required to defend French honestly.  Collapsing the defense and putting 5 guys in the lane while getting little help from Foreman sure made it hard on French - as it would anyone. Hoping and expecting improvement from French for that reason alone.

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1 hour ago, The House That Rick Built said:

Very fair point. 

What criteria did you use to come up with the projection figures?   Not only Thatch with less ppg than last year but Hankton (3 points) with twice the points of Bell (1.5 points)?   Do you have Hankton playing twice the minutes of Bell?  Jimerson with less points than Weaver and Yuri?   Point will roughly follow and correlate with minutes played, right?   Do you have minutes played projections

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7 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

What criteria did you use to come up with the projection figures?   Not only Thatch with less ppg than last year but Hankton (3 points) with twice the points of Bell (1.5 points)?   Do you have Hankton playing twice the minutes of Bell?  Jimerson with less points than Weaver and Yuri?   Point will roughly follow and correlate with minutes played, right?   Do you have minutes played projections

My brain and an eye ball test. 

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36 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

By "a little less traffic" I assume you mean that we become enough of a threat from the perimeter that teams are finally required to defend French honestly.  Collapsing the defense and putting 5 guys in the lane while getting little help from Foreman sure made it hard on French - as it would anyone. Hoping and expecting improvement from French for that reason alone.

Yes. That's what I mean. In addition to a number of players that might be able to beat their defender 1 v. 1 and then dish to French for the finish. But mostly the ability to be a threat from the perimeter. 

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10 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

What criteria did you use to come up with the projection figures?   Not only Thatch with less ppg than last year but Hankton (3 points) with twice the points of Bell (1.5 points)?   Do you have Hankton playing twice the minutes of Bell?  Jimerson with less points than Weaver and Yuri?   Point will roughly follow and correlate with minutes played, right?   Do you have minutes played projections

Actually responding to this post however, my thinking with Thatch is that he will always be the 4th, maybe 5th best scorer on the floor, at least based off of what we saw last year. I expect that unless Fred is wide open, or is driving to the basket, he probably won't score a ton when there are more reliable and important scoring options on the floor. I gave him less points per game average because I like Travis' recruiting class and I don't see Thatch looking to score as much this year, opting instead to focus primarily on his defense allowing his scoring averages to drop. He can very easily prove me wrong too. 

Hankton showed an ability to shoot the three last year, and more importantly a willingness to pull the trigger. It's not unbelievable that he could put up even 6.0 ppg because he comes in and knocks down two quick 3s. Put it this way, I am looking for him to put in a 3 a game this year, which shouldn't be a tall order. The points relationship to Bell more comes from me not knowing what Ford is planning to run in the offense. Maybe there is a two big lineup and Bell gets solid minutes. Maybe Bell just suppliments French for breaks here and there. I think the second option is most likely to me, meaning that Jimmy wouldn't have a ton of oppurtunities to score, but again he could prove me wrong. Not unbelievable that he would put a bucket or two a game in and average 4 or maybe 6 ppg.

Jimerson was another player who suffered from my  lack of feel for what Ford is going to do. My feeling is that Jimerson could look the same as Hankton, one or two 3s a game type of guy, but he won't play as much as Weaver or Yuri. More minutes for each of them made it seem like common sense that they would probably score more on average, given that as @Pistol pointed out in the blog Weaver has a quick trigger and confidence in his shot, and Yuri has shown an ability to score in high school but who's to say how that translates. Weaver is the one who I could be hugely wrong on here. 

Lastly, no I don't have minutes projections. I looked at some stats, looked at some videos, and based off of what we know about the returners, I made an educated guess on primary stats such as points, rebounds, and assists. It's a rough idea of what I think this year will look like for SLU.

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13 minutes ago, The House That Rick Built said:

Actually responding to this post however, my thinking with Thatch is that he will always be the 4th, maybe 5th best scorer on the floor, at least based off of what we saw last year. I expect that unless Fred is wide open, or is driving to the basket, he probably won't score a ton when there are more reliable and important scoring options on the floor. I gave him less points per game average because I like Travis' recruiting class and I don't see Thatch looking to score as much this year, opting instead to focus primarily on his defense allowing his scoring averages to drop. He can very easily prove me wrong too. 

Hankton showed an ability to shoot the three last year, and more importantly a willingness to pull the trigger. It's not unbelievable that he could put up even 6.0 ppg because he comes in and knocks down two quick 3s. Put it this way, I am looking for him to put in a 3 a game this year, which shouldn't be a tall order. The points relationship to Bell more comes from me not knowing what Ford is planning to run in the offense. Maybe there is a two big lineup and Bell gets solid minutes. Maybe Bell just suppliments French for breaks here and there. I think the second option is most likely to me, meaning that Jimmy wouldn't have a ton of oppurtunities to score, but again he could prove me wrong. Not unbelievable that he would put a bucket or two a game in and average 4 or maybe 6 ppg.

Jimerson was another player who suffered from my  lack of feel for what Ford is going to do. My feeling is that Jimerson could look the same as Hankton, one or two 3s a game type of guy, but he won't play as much as Weaver or Yuri. More minutes for each of them made it seem like common sense that they would probably score more on average, given that as @Pistol pointed out in the blog Weaver has a quick trigger and confidence in his shot, and Yuri has shown an ability to score in high school but who's to say how that translates. Weaver is the one who I could be hugely wrong on here. 

Lastly, no I don't have minutes projections. I looked at some stats, looked at some videos, and based off of what we know about the returners, I made an educated guess on primary stats such as points, rebounds, and assists. It's a rough idea of what I think this year will look like for SLU.

Very nice work but based upon many many holes in the thinking filled with estimates and supposition, as you say. I would take your estimates as a bottom line "this is what is possible" thing, with most projections favoring better performance will be available by the time the season starts. I should say my projections (instead of most projections) which are also, like yours, based upon estimates and supposition but nowhere as exact and detailed as yours are. Again, good job.

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Ok.    It's just that I have not heard anyone say anything about Hankton but we have hear Coach Ford say positives his core being French and Goodwin also about Thatch, Bell and Jimerson.  We have heard Bess say really good things about Perkins and we have heard from Doc B.

Here's another eyeball:

                      Collins      Clock

Goodwin       12.5          11

French            11            11

Thatch             2.5           7

Perkins          12.             9

Weaver           6.5            5

Hargrove        5.5            6

Jimerson       4.5             8

Bell                  1.5            5

Yuri                 4.5             5

Hankton          3                2

Jacobs           1                 2

Diarra             0                  0

                    64.5              71

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41 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Very nice work but based upon many many holes in the thinking filled with estimates and supposition, as you say. I would take your estimates as a bottom line "this is what is possible" thing, with most projections favoring better performance will be available by the time the season starts. I should say my projections (instead of most projections) which are also, like yours, based upon estimates and supposition but nowhere as exact and detailed as yours are. Again, good job.

There's only two projections I will make. One is we'll be more efficient on offense when Yuri is on the floor, whatever amount of time that happens to be. Goodwin and Weaver, from a playmaking perspective, is not an upgrade over Goodwin and Isabell. And offensively, it's a downgrade. 

The hope is that the bench will be significantly more productive than last year, which leads to my second projection: they will. The baseline is pretty low. Our leading scorer off the bench only averaged 4.5 ppg last year.

 

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2 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Ok.    It's just that I have not heard anyone say anything about Hankton but we have hear Coach Ford say positives his core being French and Goodwin also about Thatch, Bell and Jimerson.  We have heard Bess say really good things about Perkins and we have heard from Doc B.

Here's another eyeball:

                      Collins      Clock

Goodwin       12.5          11

French            11            11

Thatch             2.5           7

Perkins          12.             9

Weaver           6.5            5

Hargrove        5.5            6

Jimerson       4.5             8

Bell                  1.5            5

Yuri                 4.5             5

Hankton          3                2

Jacobs           1                 2

Diarra             0                  0

                    64.5              71

Everyone's guesses have equal value this time of the year. 

I hope that Bell + Diarra can = Foreman's 6.1 ppg and 4.3 rpg, and eclipse his 0.5 bpg.  

I hope that we have 3 double digit scorers.  (Perkins or Thatch or Weaver - likelihood in that order - added to Goodwin and French.)

I hope that French doesn't foul out 6 times as he did last season.  For me, French is the most irreplaceable Billiken.

If the bottom three listed above hold true to this given form, I think we will have some schollie's open for next season.

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1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Ok.    It's just that I have not heard anyone say anything about Hankton but we have hear Coach Ford say positives his core being French and Goodwin also about Thatch, Bell and Jimerson.  We have heard Bess say really good things about Perkins and we have heard from Doc B.

Here's another eyeball:

                      Collins      Clock

Goodwin       12.5          11

French            11            11

Thatch             2.5           7

Perkins          12.             9

Weaver           6.5            5

Hargrove        5.5            6

Jimerson       4.5             8

Bell                  1.5            5

Yuri                 4.5             5

Hankton          3                2

Jacobs           1                 2

Diarra             0                  0

                    64.5              71

You've got our bench scoring 28 ppg. That would be the highest scoring bench in Billiken history. No shame in your game.

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1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Ok.    It's just that I have not heard anyone say anything about Hankton but we have hear Coach Ford say positives his core being French and Goodwin also about Thatch, Bell and Jimerson.  We have heard Bess say really good things about Perkins and we have heard from Doc B.

Here's another eyeball:

                      Collins      Clock

Goodwin       12.5          11

French            11            11

Thatch             2.5           7

Perkins          12.             9

Weaver           6.5            5

Hargrove        5.5            6

Jimerson       4.5             8

Bell                  1.5            5

Yuri                 4.5             5

Hankton          3                2

Jacobs           1                 2

Diarra             0                  0

                    64.5              71

Ill play:

Goodwin 12, french 11, perkins, 9, thatch 7, weaver 6, jimerson 6, Hankton 5, hargrove 4 yuri 4, bell 3, jacobs 2, diarra 0   69

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18 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Ill play:

Goodwin 12, french 11, perkins, 9, thatch 7, weaver 6, jimerson 6, Hankton 5, hargrove 4 yuri 4, bell 3, jacobs 2, diarra 0   69

Nice. 

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No real disagreement with Pistol's numbers except both Jimerson and Thatch should be at 5 or 6 points a game.  These seem to be the two player Ford seems to have really raved about from the get go.  That would move total team scoring to just below 70 a game, about what I expect.

Heck, Thatch was at 4.5 points a game last year.  So expect him to beat that.  

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18 hours ago, wgstl said:

Ill play:

Goodwin 12, french 11, perkins, 9, thatch 7, weaver 6, jimerson 6, Hankton 5, hargrove 4 yuri 4, bell 3, jacobs 2, diarra 0   69

Goodwin 12 

French 12

Perkins 10

Jimmmmmerson 7

Thatch 7

Weaver 5

Hargrove 5

Collins 4

Bell 3

Hankton 3

Jacobs 1

Diarra 0

__________

69

 

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1 hour ago, WVBilliken said:

No real disagreement with Pistol's numbers except both Jimerson and Thatch should be at 5 or 6 points a game.  These seem to be the two player Ford seems to have really raved about from the get go.  That would move total team scoring to just below 70 a game, about what I expect.

Heck, Thatch was at 4.5 points a game last year.  So expect him to beat that.  

giphy.gif

 

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1 hour ago, Pistol said:

giphy.gif

 

 

9 hours ago, Pistol said:

Just one note on my Bell blurb - I was talking about his readiness being a mitigating factor for French getting in foul trouble.

Also, the numeric projections are Collin's, not mine. He did a nice job putting this together. Fun piece.

Sorry Pistol.  I guess I should change the title of this thread to Collin's Numerical Estimates Plus Quotes by Pistol.

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17 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

Sorry Pistol.  I guess I should change the title of this thread to Collin's Numerical Estimates Plus Quotes by Pistol.

And not put the projected numbers under Pistol’s Summaries 😙 

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3 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

You've got our bench scoring 28 ppg. That would be the highest scoring bench in Billiken history. No shame in your game.

Yes but our bench v starters will change alot over the year.  For instance, I don’t expect Yuri to be our starting PG but believe he will play alot and may end up our staring PG. I also don’t expect Bell, Hargove and Jimerson to be initial starters but would not be surprised if they carry the team and become starters. My game 1 starters are the first 5 I listed based initially on experience. Thereafter, all is up for grabs. 

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I think Goodwin will be the point guard all year long, and that Yuri or Jacobs will be backup point guards. Goodwin was our best point guard last year, and was basically the only one by January. Goodwin’s point guard skills are highly undervalued on this board. He sets up offense and other players. Has shown a strong ability with setting up our forwards down low, etc.

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1 hour ago, Pistol said:

giphy.gif

 

Perhaps WV responded before reading replies explaining everything.

Perhaps we should establish another "unwritten rule" that posters read through all posts in the thread before responding. :)

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