Bills by 2 over X

[The Wiz]

As indicated by the spread, this will be a tough game...but no tougher than say a LaSalle. We have a 54% chance of winning....not great but I will take it. If we get this win, we will become an elite team (A+) under my system....right there with Duke and NC and whoever else you want to name. Pretty rarified air. I have posted a little more this season than in past years because I wanted to get the word out....that we are a good team. I know the mantra..."it isn't easy being a Bills fan" but I have had us as at least A- from the start of the season. Now we are only 1 game away from from the same class as the OSU and Syr. I will repeat it again for the doubters....we are a good team. It has been said that under some of the systems....the numbers like us. That is code for "good team" That is why when a NC loses they only drop a little. The perception is they are good. We do not yet have that perception among voters but we are getting there. Yesterday in the X vs D game the announcers were trying to figure out how many bids the A-10 would get. They said if the committee was generous and gave out 3 bids then all the deserving schools would get one....X, Tem, and Day. Ooops....no mention of the Bills. That is why a win against X would be big....a perception changer....to the voters, to the media, and to even some on this board.

It isn't easy being a Bills fan....but it is getting easier.

[billiken_roy]

the biggest difference between this billikens version and all previous versions going back to highmark, claggett, and waldman (hcw), like hcw, this team takes care of the ball, and this team plays consistent defense. with those two factors, we are in every game and have a chance. the rest will define the final result.

[moytoy12]

the biggest difference between this billikens version and all previous versions going back to highmark, claggett, and waldman (hcw), like hcw, this team takes care of the ball, and this team plays consistent defense. with those two factors, we are in every game and have a chance. the rest will define the final result.

Agree, roy.

We will continue to live and die by the three. I'm not sure what the stats are, but I think we need to hit 35-40% (or above) in our big games to pull out some wins. Also, if CE is not hitting from outside, then we need someone else to step up (e.g. KC). To a lesser extent, FTs will come back to haunt us. I say to a lesser extent because we do not generally get to the line that much.

Take care of 3 pt. %age and FT %age and we will be tough for anyone to beat.

[billiken_roy]

Agree, roy.

We will continue to live and die by the three. I'm not sure what the stats are, but I think we need to hit 35-40% (or above) in our big games to pull out some wins. Also, if CE is not hitting from outside, then we need someone else to step up (e.g. KC). To a lesser extent, FTs will come back to haunt us. I say to a lesser extent because we do not generally get to the line that much.

Take care of 3 pt. %age and FT %age and we will be tough for anyone to beat.

if dwayne shaft evans learns anything from this season, he takes conklin's summer free throw devotion to heart and becomes a top free throw shooter. in future years with his strength, courage and style of play, he could make a living shooting free throws.

[slu72]

We excel in 3 out of the 5-6 categories to being a really good team; D , a good bench, and few TOs. To get to the next level we have to shoot better from 3 land and cannot miss the gimmes on the inside. I think BC's interior game when it's on is a difference maker for us.Lately he's been struggling, probably because people are on to him. Our rebounding has been so-so but seems to be improving. RL and CR looked much stronger yesterday and hopefully that development speeds up. FT's is a huge weakness right now. Think about this scenario, it's a tight game w/ X we go up by 5 w/ a minute left. You want to get rid of an X you have to make those FT's. You make both, 3 possession game. You make 1 a two possession game. Big big difference there. If this happens we'll all be closing our eyes whoever's on the line waiting for Rammer to say either, "Bang, he got it," or "FT's continue to hurt the Billikens."

[waldo027]

????

We are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Hit a bunch of 3's and it won't a tight game down the stretch.

[cheeseman]

I am not sure what has happened to the free throw shooting since the begining of the season but we were shooting pretty well then but something has caused us to take a nose dive lately - lack of concentration? Last night if I heard Rammer on the post game correctly he said we were 13 of 22 or something like that - that is embarrasing. As far as the missed lays ups go - part of that is due to our guards being short as a whole and they simply do not get up high enough to stop the block or get fouled. Not much we can do about that except recruit bigger guards. BC is getting hammered on every shot an the refs are letting it happen unless he gets knocked down or grabbed even on our home court. I am not sure why that is happening but it is. RL simply can not jump and DE does a nice job of getting his body into the defender on his so he usually gets fouled at least but if you do not hit your FTs than what is the point. Teams have come to figure that they will take their chances with us at the line rather than not contend our put backs or lay ups and so far it seems to be working for them. We do not have to hit a ton of 3s like Temple or Dayton does but we do have to at least put in 5 or 6 a game to keep the paint open.

[moytoy12]

RL simply can not jump

I take issue with this. I actually saw RL dunk yesterday.

[slufanskip]

I think we are only favored over X at X due to the brawl. Their season isn't really representative of the team they are. We will have to play our best game of the year to win there. If I had to put a grand up and make a choice ....

[Billsrmajic]

????

We are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Hit a bunch of 3's and it won't a tight game down the stretch.

I agree that we are a good 3 point shooting team, but it is my perception that our 3 point shooting has been very poor in our losses, and overall very good in our wins. I don't have the numbers to back that up, but I would be shocked if that weren't the case (Jbizzle, you are the Stat Man. I'm looking at you to to confirm or refute).

Anyway, it seems to me that against a good team our chance of winning is very directly correlated to our 3-pt shooting percentage. Let's hope we shoot well this week.

[The Pelican]

I think we are only favored over X at X due to the brawl. Their season isn't really representative of the team they are. We will have to play our best game of the year to win there. If I had to put a grand up and make a choice ....

I agree with you; however, the reality is the season is represented every night by the team that shows up that night regardless of what has happened in the past. If I am betting the farm my money is on

[jbizzle09]

I agree that we are a good 3 point shooting team, but it is my perception that our 3 point shooting has been very poor in our losses, and overall very good in our wins. I don't have the numbers to back that up, but I would be shocked if that weren't the case (Jbizzle, you are the Stat Man. I'm looking at you to to confirm or refute).

Anyway, it seems to me that against a good team our chance of winning is very directly correlated to our 3-pt shooting percentage. Let's hope we shoot well this week.

Here are the numbers for the 4 losses:

LMU 7-17 (.412)

UNM 3-18 (.167)

Dayton 5-19 (.263)

Temple 6-16 (.375)

I would say two of the losses (New Mexico and Dayton) were directly related to poor 3-point shooting. However, one stat that I pointed out previously was opponent's 3 point percentage. The Billikens play a stifling man-to-man defense that doesn't allow the other team to get many 3 point attempts (we have allowed the 3rd least 3 point attempts in the nation.) Here are the numbers for our opponents in the losses:

LMU 7-13 (.538)

UNM 2-7 (.286)

Dayton 7-14 (.500)

Temple 5-7 (.714)

Only UNM was kept under 50% from beyond the arc. Dayton and LMU shot way above their normal percentage, as neither team is all that great from 3 (LMU at .344 - 177th in the nation; Dayton at .358 - 112th in the nation.) Temple only attempted 7, but hit on 5 of them, as Wyatt just hit everything he threw up in that game. With UNM, the difference was totally free throws, as UNM had 35 attempts to our 16.

[slufanskip]

I agree with you; however, the reality is the season is represented every night by the team that shows up that night regardless of what has happened in the past. If I am betting the farm my money is on

except that the team they have now isn't the team that they had immediately after the brawl. It took a minute to recover, but the team they have today is a better team than their record represents.

If I was laying the odds it'd be X giving away 3

[The Pelican]

except that the team they have now isn't the team that they had immediately after the brawl. It took a minute to recover, but the team they have today is a better team than their record represents.

If I was laying the odds it'd be X giving away 3

Yep. Totally agree.

[Billsrmajic]

Here are the numbers for the 4 losses:

LMU 7-17 (.412)

UNM 3-18 (.167)

Dayton 5-19 (.263)

Temple 6-16 (.375)

I would say two of the losses (New Mexico and Dayton) were directly related to poor 3-point shooting. However, one stat that I pointed out previously was opponent's 3 point percentage. The Billikens play a stifling man-to-man defense that doesn't allow the other team to get many 3 point attempts (we have allowed the 3rd least 3 point attempts in the nation.) Here are the numbers for our opponents in the losses:

LMU 7-13 (.538)

UNM 2-7 (.286)

Dayton 7-14 (.500)

Temple 5-7 (.714)

Only UNM was kept under 50% from beyond the arc. Dayton and LMU shot way above their normal percentage, as neither team is all that great from 3 (LMU at .344 - 177th in the nation; Dayton at .358 - 112th in the nation.) Temple only attempted 7, but hit on 5 of them, as Wyatt just hit everything he threw up in that game. With UNM, the difference was totally free throws, as UNM had 35 attempts to our 16.

Thanks jbiz - nice job

[Box and Won]

"Majerus is playing chess out there; I'm playing friggin' checkers."

--Chris Mack

[billikenfan05]

"Majerus is playing chess out there; I'm playing friggin' checkers."

--Chris Mack

Some assemblance of that quote would make a great sign.

[JettFlight5]

Must-win. I'll be a lot happier when they board the bus/plane out of Cincy with a W.

[Taj79]

Everything this team does is predicated on hitting the threes. I said early on I liked that we had options in that area --- Loe, Ellis, McCall, Cassity, Mitchell and possibly Barnett. That we could maybe find two guys a night who were "on." That by being "on" it would open up the middle for Conklin. So it still goes.

Our bigs are not traditional interior big. The bigs that can play inside are limited. Our guards are extremely small and are intimidated on some layups that they need to sdtay more outside thna in (with maybe the exceptionof Jett).

FT shooting i shorrible. It wil come into play when we are trying to close out a close game with a small lead. We need work.

[slu72]

My point earlier was when we played in Anaheim the 3s and FT's were falling. We were hitting on all cylinders. It's in there we've just got to pull it out for every game from here on out. This week's games will be battle royals. Not saying the sky's falling if it doesn't go our way in the 'nati or at Amherst, but it will certainly put a lot more pressure on them from here on out. Which should be obvious even to the most casual observer.

[Pistol]

I'm worried about the Lyons-Cassity matchup. I don't think Cassity can keep up with him 1-on-1 and he's been Xavier's best scorer lately.

I'm also concerned about a possible bounce-back game from Dez Wells; he had something like 6 dunks against Bonaventure but looked like a lost freshman at Dayton. I'd hate for him to find any magic against us; the key will be in stopping their transition game.

I see X as the very slight favorite in this one, maybe by 2. This would be a huge win for us.

[Tonka]

I'm shocked that you are favoring us by 2, Wiz. We tend to struggle on the road and Xavier has a 43 game win streak at home against A10 opponents. If you look at both of those, I would think you would favor X. We're going to beat X and when we do I think it will be a slight upset.

Like Pistol, I am worried about Wells as well as he could be the X factor. We know what we're going to get from Tu and Lyons. Shrek is Shrek. Dez is a 6'5" very athletic player and outstand rebounder for a guard. If he puts up 15 or 16 we could be in trouble.

[moytoy12]

Like Pistol, I am worried about Wells as well as he could be the X factor. We know what we're going to get from Tu and Lyons. Shrek is Shrek. Dez is a 6'5" very athletic player and outstand rebounder for a guard. If he puts up 15 or 16 we could be in trouble.

DE has that sh*t on lockdown. KC on Lyons...well, let's just say that KC better make up for this matchup on offense or we better see a lot of JJ.

[waldo027]

Initial Vegas line is Xavier -3.

[slufan13]

I'm worried about the Lyons-Cassity matchup. I don't think Cassity can keep up with him 1-on-1 and he's been Xavier's best scorer lately.

I'm also concerned about a possible bounce-back game from Dez Wells; he had something like 6 dunks against Bonaventure but looked like a lost freshman at Dayton. I'd hate for him to find any magic against us; the key will be in stopping their transition game.

I see X as the very slight favorite in this one, maybe by 2. This would be a huge win for us.

I think we'll see a lot of Jordair tomorrow night. I think he'll guard Tu and Lyons on and off. I also think KM's defense has gotten a lot better as the season has gone on. He's one of the few guys on our team that has the ability to recover if he gets beat.

I looked at Xavier's stats and Tu has only made 18 3 pointers this entire season (to compare, KC has made 19) but he has shot 129 free throws. So he's shooting about 7 free throws a game which is a lot for a guard. I think a key will be for us to stay out of foul trouble. I worry about this playing at Xavier because guys like Tu will get the benefit of the doubt a lot and we're the away team. Hopefully KM/JJ can just keep Tu in front of them all game and limit his drives to the basket.

Wells is super athletic but with Tu and Lyons jacking up a ton of shots, I'm not sure he'll get a ton of looks.

I said it earlier, but Xavier is really struggling down low. Conklin averaged like 19 points against them in the 2 games last year, and I think he's due for a good game. We need to get the ball down to him and hopefully it'll open Cody and Rob up from the outside.

KM has been shooting a lot better lately and he's made better decisions on when to drive to the basket. He's still due for a completely break-out game, and you know he'd love to do that against Tu.