mccarthyirish7 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Translation: "Mike, I could give a sh*t. Get lost." Brad > Mccarthyirsh7 +1 All that really matters.... Conklin > Frease Bills by 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Again, last year they were coming off a loss to Charlotte so they were fired up. Its not that simple. They were completely locked in for the NCAA's, it was later in the year, and SLU posed absolutely no threat, so they just coasted through us and played well enough to win. This time, they know we are a viable threat, and we ARE, and Xavier is coming off a loss, and they are in a tad of trouble in the A-10, a game behind Dayton and Dayton has the tie breaker. A VERY good team off a loss is dangerous, look at Baylor last nite after losing to MU, pounded OK on the road. These top teams let up and get upset here and there then come back with emotion, which translates to intense defense, 100% effort. THIS is our big test, we have NO wins against a top 50 team. Ken Pom's "formula" is a joke. Go to Vegas and tell everyone SLU is 13th. I suppose we lose tonight, The Wiz will make us #1 because Vermont won, too. WE NEED TO WIN this or, if not, then go 9-1 the rest of the A-10 including wins over X in our 2nd game and Dayton and good road wins in Mass and St. Joe, etc, or we are NIT at best. We are in position to get there... our fate is in RM and the player's court. This is reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I wrote the author with the these two gripes. Hopefully, he'll fix the article....he did a nice job with the stats and research. Brad, Nice preview article on tonights game! Great job compiling the stats on Saint Louis. I'm a SLU alum, so I appreciate a well writte, fair analysis. I only have two gripes. Both small Many people do the first one, so it's not for a lack of bad research. 1) St. Louis is the city, but the school is Saint Louis (with St. spelled out Saint). I know that seems trivial but we take a lot of pride in it being 'Saint' Louis. 2) In your "homecourt advantage?" section you said: "St. Louis is 1-4 in true road games and only beat the something less than fearsome Salukis of Southern Illinois." Saint Louis actually won on the road at Charlotte and one of our losses was at home against Temple. So we are actually 2-3 on the road this year. Too late, but he also ignored possibly our best win of the year -- Oklahoma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Its not that simple. They were completely locked in for the NCAA's, it was later in the year, and SLU posed absolutely no threat, so they just coasted through us and played well enough to win. They had 8 more regular season games. Ken Pom's "formula" is a joke. Go to Vegas and tell everyone SLU is 13th. I suppose we lose tonight, The Wiz will make us #1 because Vermont won, too. You still don't get the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 They had 8 more regular season games. You still don't get the difference. Yes, I completely get the difference, I just cite Ken Pom's methodology as inherently flawed, it allows for glaring gaffes. There are teams 20-30 positions away from their true value (last time I looked SLU was 13, Temple 53, Xavier 51, Michigan 39, give me a break), whereas RPI is much more consistent, there are rarely outrageous mis-placed teams once we get to this point in the season. So, big boy, do you say we are 13th in D-1? Or 14th or whatever it is The Wiz says? What do you say? And, are you going to bet $$$ on SLU + 1.5 tonight? Wiz says SLU by 2. There has been significant reverse line movement on this game, do you know what that means? Google it, because you have no clue. It points to a SLU win, by the way, but is not what you call 100% accurate methodology, either. Reverse line movement. I hope we pound those gangstas tonight, hate 'em, and we can win if we play good ball, but I sure I am not taking SLU + 1.5 in this spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 He still doesnt get it. At first I thought his posts were jokes but after this debate between Vegas, RPI, The Wiz, and Ken Pom MB73 is actually serious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 He still doesnt get it. At first I thought his posts were jokes but after this debate between Vegas, RPI, The Wiz, and Ken Pom MB73 is actually serious. So, you say we are 13th, or what? I get it, you do not. There are all kinds of nuts out there with "formulas". One says we are 87th. My grandma had a formula for NCAA rankings. http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Its not that simple. They were completely locked in for the NCAA's, it was later in the year, and SLU posed absolutely no threat, so they just coasted through us and played well enough to win. This time, they know we are a viable threat, and we ARE, and Xavier is coming off a loss, and they are in a tad of trouble in the A-10, a game behind Dayton and Dayton has the tie breaker. A VERY good team off a loss is dangerous, look at Baylor last nite after losing to MU, pounded OK on the road. These top teams let up and get upset here and there then come back with emotion, which translates to intense defense, 100% effort. THIS is our big test, we have NO wins against a top 50 team. Ken Pom's "formula" is a joke. Go to Vegas and tell everyone SLU is 13th. I suppose we lose tonight, The Wiz will make us #1 because Vermont won, too. WE NEED TO WIN this or, if not, then go 9-1 the rest of the A-10 including wins over X in our 2nd game and Dayton and good road wins in Mass and St. Joe, etc, or we are NIT at best. We are in position to get there... our fate is in RM and the player's court. This is reality. They were 15-6 going into the game against us last year. That's nowhere close to being "locked in to the tourney". I don't care about what you say about Pomeroy or whatever, but this idea that they came in unprepared and overlooked us last year is just wrong. "Pounded Oklahoma on the road"? I guess a 12 point win is pounding them. It was under a 10 points for a lot of the game. As I pointed out earlier, Xavier has come out flat after a lot of their losses this year. We get off to a hot start, and they'll start playing out of character. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yes, I completely get the difference, I just cite Ken Pom's methodology as inherently flawed, it allows for glaring gaffes. There are teams 20-30 positions away from their true value (last time I looked SLU was 13, Temple 53, Xavier 51, Michigan 39, give me a break), whereas RPI is much more consistent, there are rarely outrageous mis-placed teams once we get to this point in the season. So, big boy, do you say we are 13th in D-1? Or 14th or whatever it is The Wiz says? What do you say? And, are you going to bet $$$ on SLU + 1.5 tonight? Wiz says SLU by 2. There has been significant reverse line movement on this game, do you know what that means? Google it, because you have no clue. It points to a SLU win, by the way, but is not what you call 100% accurate methodology, either. Reverse line movement. I hope we pound those gangstas tonight, hate 'em, and we can win if we play good ball, but I sure I am not taking SLU + 1.5 in this spot. This means put your money down on SLU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I hope we pound those gangstas tonight, hate 'em, and we can win if we play good ball, but I sure I am not taking SLU + 1.5 in this spot. Does anyone remember Doctor B? This reminds me strangely of Doctor B. Pompous, knows everything, and always betting against SLU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Does anyone remember Doctor B? This reminds me strangely of Doctor B. Pompous, knows everything, and always betting against SLU. -i don't see that, i miss docb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 -i don't see that, i miss docb Doc B did call Evans being a stud before the season began last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Its not that simple. They were completely locked in for the NCAA's, it was later in the year, and SLU posed absolutely no threat, so they just coasted through us and played well enough to win. This time, they know we are a viable threat, and we ARE, and Xavier is coming off a loss, and they are in a tad of trouble in the A-10, a game behind Dayton and Dayton has the tie breaker. A VERY good team off a loss is dangerous, look at Baylor last nite after losing to MU, pounded OK on the road. These top teams let up and get upset here and there then come back with emotion, which translates to intense defense, 100% effort. THIS is our big test, we have NO wins against a top 50 team. Ken Pom's "formula" is a joke. Go to Vegas and tell everyone SLU is 13th. I suppose we lose tonight, The Wiz will make us #1 because Vermont won, too. WE NEED TO WIN this or, if not, then go 9-1 the rest of the A-10 including wins over X in our 2nd game and Dayton and good road wins in Mass and St. Joe, etc, or we are NIT at best. We are in position to get there... our fate is in RM and the player's court. This is reality. We will be elite rated tomorrow without needing Vermont. BTW... I had Baylor by 9 over Okla. Perhaps if this "pounding" of Okla was such a surprise to you....maybe you should start following my prognostications. That Xavier thing worked out pretty well for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Lyons and Holloway are not jump shooters. I've seen X play Vandy, Purdue, Duquesne, the Bonnies, SIU, Butler, Cincinnati and Gonzaga. (Wow! Didn't realize I had seen THAT many!) Lyons and Holloway live off the drive to the basket. Lyons can get totally out of control at times. They can and will shoot a jumper here and there, but it is not their preference as it seems to be for Loe, Ellis, McCall and some of our guys. The only "real" spot-up shooter X uses is Redford, who's shooting 30% from three-point land. Will Lyons, Holloway and Wells take them? Yes but it's not their game to do so. During the Duquesne/Xavier game, Duquesne played matador defense. I thought the effort Duquesne exhibited would be the nadir of the season; then they played us just as bad or worse. Remember when Rammer said the Dukes had quit? They played that way the whole time against X. Wells' dunkfest came against the Dukes, not the Bonnies. Couple in the fact that Duquesne plays four or five gaurds and you can easily figure Everhardt had no one large enough to match up with Wells with behemoths like Frease and Walker on the courtn and if he did, the guy wasn't quick enough. I would expect Evans to match up 100 times better. As said in an earlier thread, jump shooters don't traditionally get fouled. If Holloway was a jump shooter, he'd also have more a free throw number down near Cassity than at the 129 currently. He drives, and has the ball in his hands when the game is close. He Lyons and Redford all shoot FTs at a 74% rate or better. Tutu is at 85%. And if they drive, the help defense will come. Meaning behind those shots come board crahsers Frease, Walker, Robinson and Taylor, not to mention Wells. I have seen no real set offense in the Mack playbook designed to get and of those guys any shots whatsoever. All those guys, sans Wells, are 6'7" or taller. Wells is too frankly based on his athleticism. All this worked to perfection in their dismantling of a good Vandy team and a good Cincy team prior to the end of the brawlgame. Wiz is predicting that we are the better team. Do not know that I disagree with that. Do know that I'd take Xavier at home getting points just about any time. I think the Wiz' system does not take into account trends, tendencies and emotion. All that is up for Xavier tonight ---- they're mad, they are focused (read Timmerman), they are coming off a loss, and they are at home where they rarely lose. Couple into that our still inabiulity to win on the road. I'l be stunned if we win. So stun me. Have you picked your jaw up off of the floor yet? Feels good, doesn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gister Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Lyons and Holloway are not jump shooters. I've seen X play Vandy, Purdue, Duquesne, the Bonnies, SIU, Butler, Cincinnati and Gonzaga. (Wow! Didn't realize I had seen THAT many!) Lyons and Holloway live off the drive to the basket. Lyons can get totally out of control at times. They can and will shoot a jumper here and there, but it is not their preference as it seems to be for Loe, Ellis, McCall and some of our guys. The only "real" spot-up shooter X uses is Redford, who's shooting 30% from three-point land. Will Lyons, Holloway and Wells take them? Yes but it's not their game to do so. I continue to be impressed with your pregame analysis!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 HA! We still have NO wins against RPI top 50 teams. NO WAY can we be elite, we have beaten NO ONE and Washington's team was young and tired that day when they didn't sleep at all the night before that game. Xavier believed that we posed no threat, that is why we won, plain and simple. We will lose to UMass and then Wiz will put us at #1. Wiz, your "formula" is a JOKE, Ken Pom is a JOKE, Sagarin is a JOKE, WE WILL BE NIT AT BEST. IF ONLY WE STILL HAD WILLIE REED. THIS IS REALITY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 HA! We still have NO wins against RPI top 50 teams. NO WAY can we be elite, we have beaten NO ONE and Washington's team was young and tired that day when they didn't sleep at all the night before that game. Xavier believed that we posed no threat, that is why we won, plain and simple. We will lose to UMass and then Wiz will put us at #1. Wiz, your "formula" is a JOKE, Ken Pom is a JOKE, Sagarin is a JOKE, WE WILL BE NIT AT BEST. IF ONLY WE STILL HAD WILLIE REED. THIS IS REALITY. posts like this and jbizzle's almost makes me wish someone would create a "fakeMB73" twitter account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 posts like this and jbizzle's almost makes me wish someone would create a "fakeMB73" twitter account. Sometimes I have to remind myself that behind his posts is a sincere person and not some Kaufman-inspired performance artist doing some sort of message board experiment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 posts like this and jbizzle's almost makes me wish someone would create a "fakeMB73" twitter account. NC84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 posts like this and jbizzle's almost makes me wish someone would create a "fakeMB73" twitter account. waldo only put one random word in quotes and there was nothing in BOLD. Overall, I think Wiz would grade him as a solid B+ but definitely not elite yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sometimes I have to remind myself that behind his posts is a sincere person and not some Kaufman-inspired performance artist doing some sort of message board experiment. Yooooor so stupid! (I assume you meant andy kaufman) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yooooor so stupid! (I assume you meant andy kaufman) Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yes, I completely get the difference, I just cite Ken Pom's methodology as inherently flawed, it allows for glaring gaffes. There are teams 20-30 positions away from their true value (last time I looked SLU was 13, Temple 53, Xavier 51, Michigan 39, give me a break), whereas RPI is much more consistent, there are rarely outrageous mis-placed teams once we get to this point in the season. So, big boy, do you say we are 13th in D-1? Or 14th or whatever it is The Wiz says? What do you say? And, are you going to bet $$$ on SLU + 1.5 tonight? Wiz says SLU by 2. There has been significant reverse line movement on this game, do you know what that means? Google it, because you have no clue. It points to a SLU win, by the way, but is not what you call 100% accurate methodology, either. Reverse line movement. I hope we pound those gangstas tonight, hate 'em, and we can win if we play good ball, but I sure I am not taking SLU + 1.5 in this spot. This means put your money down on SLU. Looking forward to your Super Bowl betting advice. I have made some good money doiing the opposite over the past year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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